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Excess Mortality and Covid-19 Related Deaths in Northern Ireland

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Excess Mortality and Covid-19 Related Deaths in Northern Ireland Statistical bulletin Covid-19 Related Deaths in Northern Ireland Deaths Occurring During March to August 2020 Key Points • There were 875 deaths involving Covid-19 between 1 March and 31 August 2020, accounting for 10.9% of all deaths. • Taking into account the age structure of the population in Northern Ireland, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) relating to deaths involving Covid-19 was 55.2 per 100,000 persons. Males had a significantly higher rate of death linked to COVID-19; the ASMR for males was 69.9 deaths per 100,000 of the male population compared with 45.8 deaths per 100,000 females (Figure 4). • Monthly Covid-19 ASMRs per 100,000 were highest in April (36.7 for males and 23.4 for females) and lowest in August (1.9 for males and 0.6 for females) (Figure 5). • Belfast Local Government District (LGD) had the highest Covid-19 related ASMR with 90.0 deaths per 100,000, followed by Antrim & Newtownabbey LGD at 73.1 (per 100,000). Fermanagh & Omagh had the lowest Covid-19 related ASMR of 17.2 (per 100,000), followed by the neighbouring Derry & Strabane with an ASMR of 27.0 (per 100,000) (Figures 6A and 6B). • For Assembly Areas, Belfast West (113.7), Belfast North (93.5) and Belfast East (90.8) had the highest Covid-19 related ASMRs per 100,000. The ASMR for South Down was lowest at 19.9 per 100,000 (Figures 6A and 6B). • Covid-19 related ASMRs were highest in the 20% most deprived areas at 66.0 deaths per 100,000 population, followed by the 20% least deprived areas at 60.4 deaths (per 100,000) (Figure 7). • The highest Covid-19 related ASMR was found in urban areas (66.9 deaths per 100,000 population), and was significantly higher than in areas categorised as mixed urban/rural (43.3 deaths per 100,000 population) and rural (36.3 deaths per 100,000 population) (Figure 8). • Proportions of Covid-19 related deaths in Northern Ireland by country of birth are in line with proportions in the Northern Ireland Census 2011 (Figure 9); 90.3% of Covid-19 related deaths were of people born in Northern Ireland. • Covid-19 related deaths in persons of working age (aged 20-69) amounted to 102 (11.7%), of which 40 (39.2%) were in the skilled trades, elementary occupations or process, plant and machine operative occupational groups. Contents Background ........................................................................................................................ 2 How many Covid-19 related deaths have there been? ..................................................... 4 Impact of Covid-19 related Deaths on Different Age-groups ............................................ 4 Age-standardised Mortality Rates: Covid-19 related and non covid Deaths .................... 6 Covid-19 related Deaths in different Areas of Northern Ireland ....................................... 8 Covid-19 related Deaths in Areas of Deprivation and in Urban/Rural Areas .................. 11 Covid-19 related Deaths by Country of Birth ................................................................... 11 Covid-19 related Deaths by Occupational Group ............................................................ 12 Other Covid-19 Statistics in Northern Ireland.................................................................. 13 Glossary ............................................................................................................................ 14 Links to Relevant Publications.......................................................................................... 16 List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... 17 Contact Details ................................................................................................................. 17 Published 1 October 2020 Page 1 Background The Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA) publishes timely but provisional weekly counts of death registrations in Northern Ireland. To allow for registration and processing, these figures are published seven days after the week ends. From 3rd April 2020A, the NISRA weekly deaths release was supplemented with numbers of respiratory deathsB and deaths relating to Covid-19 (that is, where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions). To meet user need for more information, this is the secondC report providing additional analysis over and above the weekly bulletin. This bulletin contains analysis of all COVID-19 related deaths that occurred (based on the date of death) in Northern Ireland in the six-month period between 1st March and 31st August 2020, taking account of the latest available death registrations up to and including 21st September 2020. This report includes analyses of Covid-19 related deaths for age, sex and different geographical areas including Local Government Districts, Assembly AreasD, area deprivation and urban/rural residence. As well as reporting on Covid-19 mortality rates from March- August 2020 overall, monthly mortality rates are also included. High level information on Covid-19 related deaths by occupation and by country of birth is also provided; these analyses are limited due to small numbers but are presented in light of user need. Some comparisons are made between Covid-19 related and non Covid-19 deaths to contextualise the statistics; further information is available in an accompanying spreadsheet. This report is an Official Statistics publication and statistics are produced to the high professional standards as set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. This analysis has been supported by the ADR-NIE. The content of this bulletin will be kept under review and more detail may be presented in future bulletins. Covid-19 Definition Deaths due to Covid-19 included in this bulletin reflect where Covid-19 or ‘suspected’ or ‘probable’ Covid-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. This bulletin contains analysis of all Covid-19 deaths occurring (based on date of death) in Northern Ireland between 1st March and 31st August 2020. A Publication date 3rd April reporting on deaths up to week ending 27 March 2020. B Respiratory deaths include any death where Pneumonia, Bronchitis, Bronchiolitis or Influenza are mentioned on the death certificate. C https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/monthly-deaths D Assembly Areas align with Westminster (UK) Parliamentary Constituencies. E https://www.adruk.org/about-us/our-partnership/adr-northern-ireland/ 2 Date of Occurrence and Date of Registration This bulletin is based on the date the death occurred (rather than date of registration as commonly used in official death statistics). Death registration information is collected by the General Register Office Northern Ireland. Data included in this report are provisional as numbers reported as ‘occurring’ in a certain time period can change over time, i.e. a death that occurred in August can be registered much later, for example, if referred to the coroner. The NISRA weekly deaths registrations report will continue to report provisional deaths involving Covid-19 in Northern Ireland registered in each week (ending on a Friday) and compiled at the end of the following week. During the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of changes have been made to the usual process of certifying and registering a death which have been enabled by the Coronavirus Act 2020F. More detail is available from the Department of Health website and the weekly report of death registrations in Northern Ireland. The latter also explains the key differences between the daily Northern Ireland Government updates and dashboard provided by the Department of Health, and NISRA’s death registration statistics. Mortality Rates Mortality rates in this report have been calculated based on the number of deaths occurring over a 6 month period from 1st March to 31st August 2020. The number of deaths occurring in a population is useful for determining the magnitude of a public health problem. However, mortality rates are used when making comparisons between population groups (for example, comparing males and females or geographies) or when comparing trends over time. Mortality rates are a measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a particular population at risk during a particular time period. An age-specific mortality rate allows comparison between specified age groups; it is expressed as the number of new deaths per 100,000 population at risk. Five-year age or ten-year age group categories are commonly used. Mortality rates generally increase with age. A population with a greater proportion of older people is expected to have more deaths per population. To adjust for different age profiles in different populations (e.g. different regions or countries), statistical techniques are used to adjust or ‘standardize’ mortality rates among populations to be compared. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) are presented per 100,000 people and are standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population. Rounding Percentages included in the figures and charts do not always add to 100 per cent due to rounding. F http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2020/7/introduction/enacted 3 Population Estimates The 2019 Mid-year population estimates for Northern Ireland have been used to calculate all mortality rates of deaths occurring in 2020. They reflect the resident population of Northern Ireland based on the most recent Census, allowing for births, deaths, net migration
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