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Best Practices for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)

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Best Practices for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) Best Practices for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated With Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) By Ernie Majer, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 James Nelson, Wilson Ihrig & Associates, Emeryville, CA 94608 Ann Robertson-Tait, GeothermEx, Inc., Richmond, CA 94806 Jean Savy, Savy Risk Consulting, Oakland, CA 94610 Ivan Wong, URS Corporation, Oakland, CA 94612 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................................. vi Glossary .................................................................................................................................................... viii Units........................................................................................................................................................... xiv Foreword .................................................................................................................................................... xv Section 1 ONE Step 1: Preliminary Screening Evaluation .................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Guiding Principles for Site Screening...................................................... 1-1 1.3 Evaluate Risks With Simple Bounding Methods ..................................... 1-2 1.3.1 Local, State, and Federal Governments’ Acceptance Criteria ......................................................................................... 1-3 1.3.2 Impact On Local Community ...................................................... 1-3 1.3.3 Natural Seismicity and Associated Long-Term Seismic Risk .............................................................................................. 1-4 1.3.4 Magnitude and Location of Worst Case Induced Earthquake and Associated Risk .................................................. 1-4 1.3.5 Assessing the Overall Risk of the Planned EGS .......................... 1-5 1.3.6 Identify Main Possible Risk-Associated Reasons for Not Completing a Project .................................................................... 1-5 1.4 EGS Project Benefits ............................................................................... 1-6 1.5 Documentation for Initial Project Phase Decision Making ..................... 1-6 1.5.1 Full Technical Documentation ..................................................... 1-6 1.5.2 Summary Evaluation of the Risk ................................................. 1-6 1.6 Case Studies ............................................................................................. 1-7 Section 2 TWO Step 2: Outreach and Communications ........................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Main Elements ......................................................................................... 2-1 2.3 Examples .................................................................................................. 2-2 2.3.1 Other Industrial Projects .............................................................. 2-2 2.3.2 EGS Projects ................................................................................ 2-6 2.3.3 Project Near a Community........................................................... 2-6 2.3.4 Project Distant From a Community ............................................. 2-8 2.4 Recommended Approach ......................................................................... 2-9 2.5 Summary ................................................................................................ 2-11 Section 3 THREE Step 3: Criteria for Damage, Vibration, and Noise ....................................................... 3-1 3.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Building Damage Criteria ........................................................................ 3-2 3.2.1 Threshold Cracking ...................................................................... 3-3 3.2.2 Minor and Major Damage .......................................................... 3-10 3.3 Damage Criteria for Civil Structures ..................................................... 3-10 C:\DOCUMENTS AND SETTINGS\DSHAWKES\DESKTOP\PUBLICATIONS\DOCUMENTS WAITING FOR LBNL NUMBERS\2013\OCTNOVDEC2013\MAJER-BEST PRACTICES EGS INDUCED SEISM TABLE OF CONTENTS 3.4 Damage Criteria for Buried Structures .................................................. 3-11 3.4.1 Wells .......................................................................................... 3-11 3.4.2 Pipelines ..................................................................................... 3-11 3.4.3 Basement Walls ......................................................................... 3-12 3.4.4 Tunnels ....................................................................................... 3-12 3.5 Landslide and Rockslide ........................................................................ 3-13 3.6 Human Response ................................................................................... 3-13 3.6.1 Third Octave Filters ................................................................... 3-13 3.6.2 Vibration .................................................................................... 3-14 3.6.3 Ground-Borne Noise .................................................................. 3-25 3.7 Laboratory and Manufacturing Facilities ............................................... 3-27 3.7.1 Criteria ....................................................................................... 3-27 3.8 Summary ................................................................................................ 3-30 3.9 Suggested Reading ................................................................................. 3-31 Section 4 FOUR Step 4: Collection of Seismicity Data ............................................................................ 4-1 4.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Gathering Data to Establish Background/Historical Seismicity Levels: Regional ...................................................................................... 4-1 4.2.1 Possible Sources of Background Data ......................................... 4-2 4.2.2 Data Requirements ....................................................................... 4-2 4.3 Local Seismic Monitoring ........................................................................ 4-4 4.3.1 Basic Requirements ..................................................................... 4-4 4.3.2 Instrumentation Needs and Data Coverage .................................. 4-5 4.3.3 Instrumentation and Deployment ................................................. 4-6 4.3.4 Data Archiving and Processing Requirements ............................ 4-9 4.4 Summary ................................................................................................ 4-11 4.5 Suggested Reading ................................................................................. 4-11 Section 5 FIVE Step 5: Hazard Evaluation of Natural and Induced Seismic Events ........................... 5-1 5.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Overview of Approach ............................................................................. 5-2 5.2.1 Estimate the Baseline Hazard From Natural Seismicity .............. 5-2 5.2.2 Estimate the Hazard From Induced Seismicity ............................ 5-2 5.3 PSHA Methodology and Computer Programs ......................................... 5-3 5.3.1 Evaluate Historical Seismicity ..................................................... 5-3 5.3.2 Characterize Seismic Sources ...................................................... 5-5 5.3.3 Areal Sources ............................................................................... 5-8 5.3.4 Characterize Site Conditions ........................................................ 5-8 5.3.5 Select Ground Motion Prediction Models ................................... 5-9 5.3.6 PSHA Products ............................................................................ 5-9 5.4 Additional Steps In Characterizing EGS for PSHA .............................. 5-10 5.4.1 Characterize Local and Regional Stress Field ........................... 5-11 5.4.2 Develop 3D Geologic Model ..................................................... 5-11 5.4.3 Review of Relevant EGS Case Histories ................................... 5-11 C:\DOCUMENTS AND SETTINGS\DSHAWKES\DESKTOP\PUBLICATIONS\DOCUMENTS WAITING FOR LBNL NUMBERS\2013\OCTNOVDEC2013\MAJER-BEST PRACTICES EGS INDUCED SEISM TABLE OF CONTENTS 5.4.4 Develop Induced Seismicity Model ........................................... 5-11 5.4.5 Select Ground Motion Prediction Models for Induced Seismicity ................................................................................... 5-13 5.4.6 Products...................................................................................... 5-13 5.5 Summary ................................................................................................ 5-13 5.6 Suggested Reading ................................................................................
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