Report Cover Page ACERA Project 0605 Title Statistical Methods for Biosecurity Monitoring and Surveillance Author(s) / Address (es) David Fox, University of Melbourne Material Type and Status (Internal draft, Final Technical or Project report, Manuscript, Manual, Software) Final Report Summary This report investigates the applicability of traditional methods of analysing surveillance data to biosecurity risks, and explores some more recent innovations designed to detect subtle trends and anomalous behaviour in data over space and time. In particular, it examines control charting and syndromic surveillance methods, and explores how useful they are likely to be in dealing with typical biosecurity disease and pest surveillance. If focuses on disease detection, and methods for optimising surveillance networks and robust methods for minimising levels of inspection. This work provides a proof of concept of these approaches. The case studies, while based on real contexts, are intended only to be illustrative. If the tools are considered to be potentially useful, the next stage would involve development of specific applications to trial their utility. Received By: Date: ACERA Use only ACERA / AMSI SAC Approval: Date: DAFF Endorsement: ( ) Yes ( ) No Date: AUSTRALIAN CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR RISK ANALYSIS Project 06-05 Statistical Methods for Biosecurity Monitoring and Surveillance Page | i THE AUSTRALIAN CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR RISK ANALYSIS Statistical Methods for Biosecurity Monitoring & Surveillance DAVID R. FOX 2009 The University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria 3052 Phone +61 3 8344 7253 • Fax +61 3 8344 6215 Email:
[email protected] This report may not be reproduced in part or full by any means without the express written permission of the copyright owner.