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Infill Dynamics in Rail Transit Corridors: Challenges and Prospects for Integrating June 2016 Transportation and Land Use Planning 6 STATE OF CALIFORNIA • DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADA Notice TECHNICAL REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE For individuals with sensory disabilities, this document is available in alternate TR0003 (REV 10/98) formats. For information call (916) 654-6410 or TDD (916) 654-3880 or write Records and Forms Management, 1120 N Street, MS-89, Sacramento, CA 95814. 1. REPORT NUMBER 2. GOVERNMENT ASSOCIATION NUMBER 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NUMBER CA16 2641 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. REPORT DATE Infill Dynamics in Rail Transit Corridors: Challenges and Prospects for Integrating June 2016 Transportation and Land Use Planning 6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE 7. AUTHOR 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. Jae Hong Kim, Douglas Houston, Jaewoo Cho, Ashley Lo, Xiaoxia Shi, Andrea Hoff, Nicholas Branic, Huy C. Ly, Alison L. Walker, Yanyan Zhang UCTC FR 2016 06 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. WORK UNIT NUMBER University of California, Irvine Institute of Transportation Studies 11. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER 4000 Anteater Instruction and Research Building AIRB) Irvine, CA 3600 65A0528 TO 018 A01 12. SPONSORING AGENCY AND ADDRESS 13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED California Department of Transportation Caltrans) Final Report Division of Research, Innovation and System Information April 1, 201 July 7, 2016 1227 O Street, MS 83 14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE Sacramento, CA 95814 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 16. ABSTRACT Although local and regional planning entities have attempted to direct growth into transit corridors to achieve the sustainability goals of California Senate Bill 375 SB 375), little is known about the complexity of near transit infill dynamics. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the relationship between transit investment and urban land use change through a systematic investigation of parcel level land use in Southern California with a focus on the first phase of the Gold Line, opened in 2003. Our multinomial logistic regression results indicate that vacant parcels within the vicinity of new transit stations are more likely to be developed not only for residential but also for other urban purposes, than those with limited transit accessibility. Although relatively small in terms of magnitude, the presence of long term r indirect) effects is also detected, suggesting that continuing investment in a transit system can benefit both new and existing station areas by promoting the utility of the overall public transit service. Transit stations with low ridership, however, tend to generate smaller land use impacts, indicating the importance of the vitality of transit service. Transit investment’s impacts on industrial site reuse also appears to be less evident, while transit investment seems to function as a facilitator of the site redevelopment for multi family housing and urban open space. 17. KEY WORDS 18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT Transit, corridor, infill, land use, Senate Bill 375 No restriction 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION (of this report) 20. NUMBER OF PAGES 21. COST OF REPORT CHARGED Unclassified 60 Reproduction of completed page authorized. DISCLAIMER STATEMENT This document is disseminated in the interest of information exchange. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the State of California or the Federal Highway Administration. This publication does not constitute a standard, specification or regulation. This report does not constitute an endorsement by the Department of any product described herein. For individuals with sensory disabilities, this document is available in alternate formats. For information, call (916) 654-8899, TTY 711, or write to California Department of Transportation, Division of Research, Innovation and System Information, MS-83, P.O. Box 942873, Sacramento, CA 94273-0001. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA TRANSPORTATION CENTER RESEARCH PROJECT Infill Dynamics in Rail Transit Corridors: Challenges and Prospects for Integrating Transportation and Land Use Planning June 2016 Project Investigators: Jae Hong Kim and Douglas Houston Research Assistants: Jaewoo Cho, Ashley Lo, Xiaoxia Shi, Andrea Hoff, Nicholas Branic Huy C. Ly, Alison L. Walker, Yanyan Zhang Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 1 I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 2 II. Brief Literature Review – What does the existing research tell us? .......................................... 3 III. Study Areas Local Contexts ................................................................................................. 6 III 1. Overview ............................................................................................................................ 6 III 2. Population Characteristics ................................................................................................ 9 III 3. Economic Characteristics ................................................................................................ 16 III 4. Other Characteristics....................................................................................................... 24 IV. Explorative Analysis ............................................................................................................... 26 I 1. Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 26 I 2. Results .............................................................................................................................. 29 V. Land Use Change Analysis – Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis .............................. 39 1. Model, Variables, and Data .............................................................................................. 39 2. Baseline Estimation Outcomes .......................................................................................... 42 3. Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................ 46 VI. Summary Discussion .......................................................................................................... 49 References ..................................................................................................................................... 52 List of Tables Table 1. Gold Line Phase I grades ................................................................................................ 24 Table 2. Land use classification 15 categories) ........................................................................... 26 Table 3. Descriptive statistics ....................................................................................................... 41 Table 4. Logistic regression results New development model) ................................................... 44 Table 5. Logistic regression results Redevelopment model) ....................................................... 45 Table 6. Sensitivity analysis results summary New development) ............................................. 47 Table 7. Sensitivity analysis results summary Redevelopment) ................................................. 48 List of Figures Figure 1. LACMTA/Metro system map ......................................................................................... 7 Figure 2. Typology of Gold Line Phase I stations .......................................................................... 8 Figure 3. Population per square miles........................................................................................... 10 Figure 4. Population per household .............................................................................................. 11 Figure 5. Percentage of Hispanic population ................................................................................ 12 Figure 6. Percentage of non Hispanic African American population ........................................... 13 Figure 7. Percentage of non Hispanic Asian population .............................................................. 14 Figure 8. Percentage of Foreign born population ......................................................................... 15 Figure 9. Median household income ............................................................................................. 17 Figure 10. Percentage of household below poverty level ............................................................. 18 Figure 11. Unemployment rate ..................................................................................................... 19 Figure 12. Percentage of labor force in management and professional occupations .................... 20 Figure 13. Percentage of highly educated population ................................................................... 21 Figure 14. Percentage of owner occupied housing units .............................................................. 22 Figure 15. Percentage of renter occupied housing units ............................................................... 23 Figure 16. Map of specific plans ................................................................................................... 25 Figure 17. Overlapping policy areas and transit vicinity boundaries ..........................................
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