L. Ray Buckendale 2020 Lecture

Downloaded from SAE International by Michael Roeth, Wednesday, September 09, 2020 L. RAY BUCKENDALE 2020 LECTURE 2020-01-1945 Transformational Technologies Reshaping Transportation – An Industry Perspective Michael Roeth Executive Director, NACFE Presented at: SAE 2020 Commercial Vehicle Engineering Congress September 15, 2020 Downloaded from SAE International by Michael Roeth, Wednesday, September 09, 2020 2020 L. RAY BUCKENDALE LECTURE This lecture, presented annually at the SAE Commercial Vehicle Engineering Congress, focuses on automotive ground vehicles for either on- or off-road operation in either commercial or military service. The intent is to provide procedures and data useful in formulating solutions in commercial vehicle design, manufacture, operation and maintenance. Established in 1953, this lecture commemorates the contributions of L. Ray Buckendale, 1946 SAE President. L. Ray Buckendale, by his character and work, endeared himself to all who were associated with him. Foremost among his many interests was the desire to develop the potential abilities in young people. As he was an authority in the theory and practice of gearing, particularly as applied to automotive vehicles, it was in this field that he was best able to accomplish his purpose. To perpetuate his memory, SAE established this lecture to provide practical and useful technical information to young people involved in vehicle engineering. AUTHOR Michael Roeth Executive Director, NACFE Truck Operations Leader, Rocky Mountain Institute Mike has worked in the commercial vehicle industry for over 35 years, is the Executive Director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency and is the trucking lead for the Rocky Mountain Institute. Mike’s specialty is brokering green truck collaborative technologies into the real world at scale. He has a Bachelor of Science in Engineering from the Ohio State University and a Master’s in Organizational Leadership from the Indiana Institute of Technology. Roeth served on the second National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine Committee on Reducing Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, is a Department of Energy Merit Reviewer and served as Chairman of the Board for the Truck Manufacturers Association. He understands the customers, operations and intricacies of the commercial vehicle industry having held various positions in product development, engineering, reliability and quality, sales, materials and plant management with Navistar and Behr/Cummins. Downloaded from SAE International by Michael Roeth, Wednesday, September 09, 2020 2020-01-1945 Published 08 Sep 2020 Transformational Technologies Reshaping Transportation - An Industry Perspective Michael Roeth North American Council for Freight Efficiency Citation: Roeth, M., “Transformational Technologies Reshaping Transportation - An Industry Perspective,” SAE Technical Paper 2020-01-1945, 2020, doi:10.4271/2020-01-1945. Abstract technologies are universally supportive, driven both by reight trucking has always embraced continuous economic and regulatory factors. The early stages of these improvement although the general public may technological revolutions are characterized by a multitude of Fbe largely unaware of the tremendous changes that competing concepts confusing choices, complicated by a have occurred to date in vehicle safety, efficiencies, emissions significant number of competing vested interests obscuring mitigation and asset utilization. Today’s freight industry is in objectivity, and clouded by billions of dollars of venture the early stages of dramatic technological advances in areas capital. The objective of this report is to provide unbiased such as connectivity, automation and electrification. Fleet and insight into the freight industry’s thoughts on these manufacturer perspective on these transformational transformational technologies. Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................... 2 6.6. Cost Reduction Efforts ..................................................21 2. Scope ............................................................................... 2 6.7. Vehicle Life Expectancy ................................................22 3. Current Dynamics .......................................................... 4 6.8. Operating Costs .............................................................23 3.1. Electrification ...................................................................5 6.9. Alternative Fuels/Energy ..............................................26 3.2. Automation and Autonomy ...........................................6 7. Understanding Fuel and Freight Efficiency ................. 28 3.3. Logistics ............................................................................9 8. In-Production Current Technologies .......................... 29 4. Other Influencing Factors ............................................ 10 9. Electrification ............................................................... 30 4.1. Platooning.......................................................................10 9.1. Where It Makes Sense ...................................................30 4.2. Automation.....................................................................10 9.2. MD Tractors ...................................................................32 4.3. Connected Vehicles .......................................................11 9.3. Class 8 HD Battery Electric Tractors ..........................32 4.4. SuperTrucks I & II .........................................................13 10. Case Studies ................................................................ 33 4.5. Emission Regulations ....................................................14 10.1. PepsiCo .........................................................................33 4.6. Alternative Fuels ............................................................14 10.2. United Parcel Service (UPS) .......................................35 4.7. Zero Emission Zones ....................................................14 10.3. NFI .................................................................................37 5. Understanding Truck Development ............................ 14 11. Conclusions ................................................................ 38 6. Understanding Fleet Adoption .................................... 17 12. Recommendations ...................................................... 39 6.1. S-Curve Dynamics ........................................................17 13. References ................................................................... 39 6.2. Return on Investment Factors .....................................20 Contact Information ................................................... 42 6.3. Residual Value Factors ..................................................20 Acknowledgments ...................................................... 42 6.4. Risk Factors ....................................................................20 Appendix A: List of Figures ........................................ 43 6.5. Regulatory Factors .........................................................20 Downloaded from SAE International by Michael Roeth, Wednesday, September 09, 2020 2 TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES RESHAPING TRANSPORTATION - AN INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE Duty cycles vary by route, by fleet, by region, by load, and 1. Introduction by many other factors. A comprehensive evaluation of technology adoption for every truck type in use in North America his SAE L. Ray Buckendale report is the third in a series would fill volumes. The focus of this report is on moving on transformational change in the commercial vehicle freight, dry and refrigerated goods, using medium- and heavy- Tindustry. The first in 2018 presented a government duty trucks and tractor-trailers. These vehicles today are perspective [1]. The second in 2019 presented an academia largely fueled by diesel or gasoline internal combustion perspective [2]. This current report provides an industry engines (ICE). perspective. The primary purpose of the Buckendale is to Trucks are classified by their gross vehicle weight rating provide new engineers with critical insights on key relevant (GVWR), the maximum permissible weight including freight topics, but experience has shown that Buckendale lectures and for that vehicle, by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration reports are useful to industry, regulators, policy makers, (FHWA) as tabulated in Figure 1. The FHWA, as the name researchers and the public [3]. implies, has regulatory responsibility for the interstate freeway There are many transformational technologies becoming system which includes pavement design. FHWA required a available to the trucking industry including automation, system to differentiate between vehicles using then available connectivity, electrification and even shared services. The sensors, primarily simple road tubes, to count and classify opportunities abound, but they can also appear very chal- vehicles using the roads [34]. lenging as they have the potential to improve or obstruct our These weight classifications can include people movers ability to sustainably move goods in North America. Each like buses, a variety of construction and work trucks, refuse offers their unique benefits and challenges and, in some cases, trucks, emergency vehicles, bulk tankers, flatbeds, etc. that can build upon one another in an integrative solution to help are

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