Beijing, China 31 Ma r ch - 3 April 2003 International Programme Committee (IPC) Chairman: Dr. QIN Dahe, Chairman for CNCC, IPCC/WGI Co-Chair, China Vice-Chairmen: Prof. YAN Hong, Assistant Secretary-General of WMO Dr. ZHENG Guoguang, Vice-Chairman and Secretary General for CNCC, China Members: Dr. Rajendra PACHAURI, IPCC Chair Dr. M. MUNASINGHE, IPCC Vice Chair Dr. Y.A. IZRAEL, IPCC Vice Chair Dr. Susan SOLOMON, IPCC/WG1 Co-Chair, NOAA Aeronomy Lab, USA Dr. O. CANZIANI, IPCC/WG2 Co-Chair, Argentina Dr. M.L. PARRY, IPCC/WG2 Co-Chair, UK Dr. B. METZ, IPCC/WG3 Co-Chair, Netherlands Dr. O. DAVIDSON, IPCC/WG3 Co-Chair, Sierra Leone Dr. Keith ALVERSON, Executive Director, PAGES International Project Office, Switzerland Prof. P.LEMKE, Chair, JSC/WCRP, Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany Dr. Guy P. BRASSEUR, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany Mr. Dennis TIRPAK, UNFCCC Mr. RUAN Shuigen, CMA, China Mr. TANG Xu, CMA, China Secretary General of IPC Dr. ZHENG Guoguang, Vice-Chairman and Secretary General for CNCC, China Deputy Secretary General of IPC Mr. ZHANG Guocai, Director-General, National Meteorological Center, China Dr. ZHANG Renhe, President, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China
Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) Chairman: Prof. YE Duzheng, Academician, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Vice-Chairmen: Prof. CHAO Jiping, Academician, State Oceanic Administration (SOA), China Prof. Berrien MOORE III, Director of the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, USA Sir. John T. HOUGTON, Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, UK Dr. R. ANTHES, President, UCAR, USA Dr. Tim KILLEN, Director, NCAR, USA Prof. LIU Tungsheng, Academician, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Prof. SHI Yafeng, Academician, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Prof. ZENG Qingcun, Academician, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Prof. ZHANG Xinshi, Academician, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Prof. ZHOU Xiuji, Academician, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Members: Prof. A. SUMI, Director, Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo Japan Prof. AN Zhisheng, Academician, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Prof. CHOU Jifan, Academician, Training Center of CMA, China Prof. CHEN Jay Chung, Hongkong, China Prof. CHAN Johnny C. L., Hongkong, China Dr. David CARSON, Joint Planning Staff, World Climate Research Programme Dr. David R. EASTERLING, National Climatic Data Center, USA Prof. Deliang CHEN, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Gteborg University, Sweden Prof. DING Yihui, National Climate Center, CMA, China Prof. Soi Kun FONG, Macao, China Dr. James HANSEN, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, USA Dr. John CHURCH, Antarctic CRC and CSIRO Marine Research, Australia Dr. Jerry M. MELILLO, Co-Director, Ecosystems Center, USA Prof. HUANG Ronghui, Academician, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Prof. LI Jijun, Academician, Lanzhou University, China Dr. N. SUNDARARAMAN, Former Secretary of the IPCC Prof. Paul A. MAYEWSKI, University of Maine, USA Prof REN Zhenhai, Academician, National Environment Protection Agency, China Prof. WANG Pinxian, Academician, Tongji University, China Prof Wei-Chyung WANG, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York at Albany, USA Prof. WU Guoxiong, Academician, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Mr. Yadowsun BOODHOO, President of CCL/WMO Academic Secretaries: Prof REN Guoyu, National Climate Center, China Dr. LUO Yong, National Climate Center, China Dr. SHI Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Local Organizing Committee (LOC )
Chairman: Mr. SHEN Xiaonong, Director-General, Department of International Cooperation, CMA, China Vice-Chairmen: Mr. ZHOU Shuguang, Deputy Director-General, Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation, CMA, China Prof. LI Weijing, Deputy Director-General, National Climate Center, China Mr. ZHENG Yunjie, Deputy Director-General, Department of International Cooperation, CMA, China Members: Mr.WANG Bangzhong, Depai inent of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation, CMA, China Mr. YING Ning, Department of Forecasting Services and Disaster Mitigation, CMA, China Ms. FENG Xuezhu, Department of Science, Technology and Education, CMA, China Ms. CHAO Qingchen, National Meteorological Center, China Mr. CHEN Zhenlin, Department of International Cooperation, CMA, China Mr. SUN Rui, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Ms. ZHANG Yan, National Meteorological Center, China
111 CONTENTS
Plenary Session Keynote Speeches March 31„2003, Conference Hall, NSMC Building (MR1)
SO-01 Connections between climate and the ozone layer: A review 1 Dr. Susan Solomon SO-02 GPS observations of climate change...... 1 Dr. Richard A. Anthes SO-03 On orderly human activities...... 2 Prof. YE Duzheng SO-04 Climate change and sustainable development in the IPCC AR4...... 3 Prof. Mohan Munasinghe SO-05 The Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) for the integrated study of the earth system...... 4 Dr. David J. Carson SO-06 Inter-decadal variability of the temperature and precipitation patterns in the East Asian Monsoon region ...... 6 Prof. DING Yihui SO-07 Global warming does not lead to more intense tropical cyclones ...... 7 Prof. Johnny C. L. CHAN SO-08 Climate change in the Pacific over the past 300 years ...... 8 Dr. Keith Alverson SO-09 Revised estimates of 20th century sea-level rise...... 9 Dr. John A. Church SO-10 Model development for the global warming prediction by using the Earth Simulator...... 9 Prof. Akimasa Sumi SO-11 Observed high latitude temperature change in North America...... 10 Dr. David R. Easterling S1-05 A review an tropical cyclone field experiments and research...... 11 Prof. CHEN Lianshou S2-1-01 Discussion an the present climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Northwest China...... 13 Prof. SHI Yafeng S4-01 Summertime quadruplet heating pattern in the subtropics and the associated atmospheric circulation 15 Prof. Guoxiong WU S4-08 Cloud-climate interaction over East Asia: a modeling perspective...... 15 Prof. Wei-Chyung WANG S6-O1 Interdecadal variability of climate and its impact an water resources in China ...... 16 Prof. HUANG Ronghui S6-14 Climate-induced variability of sea level in Stockholm: Influence of air temperature and atmospheric circulation...... 17 Prof. Deliang CHEN S9-05 In preparation for climate change ...... 18
a Yadowsun Boodhoo S9-11 WMO role in controlling climate change...... 19 Younis Al-Fenadi S0-12 Climate Change and Sustainable Development...... 20 Sir John Houghton S0-13 A 700 Year Record of the Antarctic Oscillation and Implications for Understanding the Global Climate System ...... 20 Paul A. Mayewski
Session 1: Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Climate Change April 1, 2003, Multi-Function Hall, NMC (MR5)
S1-01 The changing nature of Australian droughts...... 22 Neville Nicholls S1-02 China heavy rainfall experiment and study (CHeRES) ...... 25 NI Yunqi S1-03 Climate change: Assessment of climatic extremes risk ...... 26 V. Cazac S1-04 Temporal characteristics of the numbers of days with heavy rain and torrential rain in the last 100 years in Wuhan and Yichang ...... 27 CHEN Zhenghong S1-06 Spatial statistical structure of annual climate extremes and gridding their temporal trends...28 Dmitry Kiktev S1-07 Climatic change of flood and drought events with their characteristics in the recent 50 years over Zhejiang Province ...... 30 GU Junqiang SI-08 Changes in extreme climate events during the 20th century in South Korea ...... 31 Won-Tae Kwon S1-09 Effects of abrupt climate change an drought in North China in 1970's ...... 32 WANG Anyu S1-10 Trends of temperature and precipitation extremes in China during the second half of the 20`x' century ...... 33 ZHAI Panmao S1-11 Extreme events and observed regional (South America) trends: A preliminary review ...... 34 L.J.Mata M.Rusticucci S1-12 Effects of typhoon an China's precipitation during 1957-1996...... 38 REN Fumin S1-13 Changes in temperature extremes over Argentina ...... 39 Matilde Monica Rusticucci S1-14 Global climatic warming, the Yangtze floods and potential loss...... 40 JIANG Tong
b S1-15 A numerical simulation of heavy rainfall event in Shanghai an 5 August 2001...... 41 Gang FU S1-16 Characteristics and observation of dust storm in China ...... 42 ZHANG Renjian S1-17 The predictability of extreme climate events and extreme weather events ...... 44 CHEN Juying S1-18 The climate change in north region of China and its impact an dust storm events ...... 44 GAO Qingxian
PS1-02: Trend of drought in the Songhuajiang and Nenjiang valley and the possible response to global warming ...... 45 SUN Yonggang PS1-03: Study an rainstorm and sandstorm in the Tarlimu Basin of China ...... 47 HAN Yongxiang PS1-04: Dust storm and climate change in Xinjiang, China...... 48 HE Qing PS1-05: The meso-scale characteristics of 7-9 April 2001 sand-dust storm...... 48 KANG Fengqin PS1-06: Climatic characteristics and the cause of dust Storm ...... 50 LI Xifu PS1-07: Hot and dry weather in 2000 summer in Beijing...... 51 LIU HaiTao PS1-08: Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of drought over last fifty years in Min Province52 LIU Yuying PSl-09: Analysis an characteristics of strong meso-ßscale front of a storm rainfall ...... 54 PU Meijuan PS1-10: Evaporation in Tianjin area and its impacts an local drought climate...... 54 RONG Yanshu PS1-11: Numerical simulation of torrential rain event in the esst part of Northwest China ...... 56 WANG Jinsong PS1-13: The study and forecast of heavy-rain in Hubei Province...... 57 WANG Dengyan PS1-14: Rainstorm frequency variation in the coastal region of Southeast China...... 58 XU Jinj ing PS1-15: Analysis of climatic conditions of dust source in Ebinur area ...... 58 YANG Qing PS1-16: Climatic characteristics of heavy precipitation events over the Yangtze Basins ...... 59 YANG Hongging PS1-17: Change of extreme precipitation and human activities in Xinjiang, China ...... 60 YANG Lianmei PSl-18: Air-sea interaction and catastrophic floods in Hubei Province...... 62 ZHANG Shujun PS1-19: The feature analysis of extreme heavy rain of 8-9 June 2002 in southern Shanxi Province...... 64 ZHANG Hong PS1-21: A software System for retrieving 3-D wind fields using Dual-Doppler radar and the wind
c structure of summer heavy rain in China ...... 65 ZHOU HaiGuang PS1-22: The structures and evolutions of meso-scale System of heavy-rain...... 66 ZHOU Xiaolan PS1-23: Study an meso-scale severe convective System using radar data ...... 67 JIANG Yuhua PS1-24: Extreme flood events and disasters during the transition period from warm-dry to warm-wet climate in Xinjiang ...... 68 JIANG Feng-qing PS1-25: The basic characteristics of surface heating field during the spring dust storms in Northwest China ...... 69 WANG Jin-song PS1-26: Climate change and climate extreme events of Hubei Province during the past 50 years...... 70 LIU Min PS1-27: A case study an the cause and influence of sandstorm in Beijing...... 71 LIU Jianzhong PS1-29: A study an the blowing-sand and dust storm in Beijing during 1954-2001 ...... 72 YANG Jie PS1-31: Risk analysis of urban water logging induced by rainfall in TianJin City ...... 74 XIE Yiyang PS1-32: Analysis an the annual frequency anomalies of typhoon and hurricane in 1998...... 76 LIZengzhong PS1-33: Spatial and temporal characteristics of dust storms in China and its surrounding regions, 1960-1999: Relations to source area and climate...... 77 Jimin SUN
Session 2-1: Observed Climate Variability and Change- Instrumental Record April 1, 2003, Academic Hall, NSMC (MR1)
S2-1-02 Statistical and synoptic analysis of Azarbaijan area rainfall during 1961-95 period ...... 78 Bohloul Alijani S2-1-03 Low-frequency variability of global mean surface temperature during the last millennium...... 79 CAI Jingning S2-1-04 Current climate and climate change scenarios under global warming in Kazakhstan...... 81 Svetlana Dolgikh S2-1-05 Detection of changes of climate state, climate variability and climate extremes indices in the regions of Eurasia ...... 83 Georgii V. Gruza S2-1-06 Observed climate variability and change in Mongolia ...... 84 Yong Seung CHUNG S2-1-07 Detection of errors in Uganda climatological data sets and the design of quality control procedure ...... 84 Lubega Fortunata S2-1-08 Climate variability and change in Bulgaria during the 20'h century...... 86 Vesselin Avramov Alexandrov S2-1-09 Change of glacier - snow water resources and mountain runoff in the arid area of Northwest China ...... 87 KANG Ersi S2-1 -10 Temperature change of Mainland China over the past 50 years...... 88 Guoyu REN S2-1-11 Analysis of air temperature variations in Bulgaria...... 89 Ek. Koleva S2-1-12 Recent increase in the persistence of atmospheric circulation over Europe: Comparison with long-term variations since 1881...... 90 J. Kysely S2-1-13 Climate in Nigeria-its reality and impacts ...... 91 S. O. Gbuyiro S2-1-14 Recent change in winter temperature over South Korea...... 93 S.-B. Ryoo S2-1-15 Climate change and its impacts in Indonesia ...... 93 N. F. Riama S2-1-16 Climate change in Kazakhstan...... 94 L. A. Voronina S2-1-17 Recent increase in persistence of atmospheric circulation over Europe: Comparison with long-term variations since 1881...... 94 J. K.Warm S2-1-18 An investigation of temporal and spatial variations of 1988-1998 snow cover over the northem hemisphere ...... 94 YANG Xiuqun S2-1-19 The variation and distribution of snow cover in China...... 95 LIU Yujie S2-1-20 Snow conditions in Bulgarian mountain regions...... 96 Nadejda Petkova S2-1-21 Climatic changes over Arabian states of Qatar, Oman and United Arab Emirates ...... 97 P. Govinda Rao S2-1-22 The calculation of riet surface radiation in cloudy atmosphere over Northwestem China by using GMS data ...... 98 YANG Dasheng S2-1-23 Change and variability of historical soil temperatures in Russia...... 100 Tingjun ZHANG S2-1-24 On climate variations and related factors observed in Korea ...... 103 Yong-seung Chung S2-1-25 Study an the trends of precipitation in Northwest China during the 20th century ...... 103 SONG Lianchun S2-1-26 Research an the anomaly of summer temperature over Northeast China by using satellite data ...... 104 JIANG Shangcheng S2-1-27 Study an the change of climate and environment in the arid inland areas of Eurasia ...... 105 WEI Wenshou S2-1-28 Ort climate change during the 20th century in DPRK ...... 107 Chae Sen Suk S2-1-29 The seasonal and diumal variation of urban heat island in Beijing ...... 108 XIE Zhuang S2-1-30 Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchments ...... 109 S. Becker, M. Gemmer, Tong JIANG S2-1-31 Application of remote sensing data and information technology in climate System monitoring with reference of Indian monsoon ...... 110 S. Samarajalingam
Session 2-1: Observed Climate Variability and Change-Instrumental Record April 1, 2003, Academic Hall, NSMC (MR1)
S2-2-O1 Climatic changes as recorded by cryosphere ...... 111 YAO Tandong S2-2-02 Scaling analysis of past climate variations records in instrumental and proxy data...... 111 Nina Mikhailovna Datsenko S2-2-03 Tropical modulation of western US precipitation: El Nino from proxy data for the last millennia.111 Nicholas E. Graham S2-2-04 Multi-scale abrupt changes of precipitation in the western United States during the last 8000 Years ...... 111 JIANG Jianmin S2-2-05 Palaeolake and palaeoenvironment between 42-18kaBP in the Tengger Desert, NW China ...... 114 ZHANG Hucai S2-2-06 Centennial-scale dry-wet period variability in East Asia...... 115 Weihong QIAN S2-2-07 Impact of ENSO events an the hydrological System of the Cordillera de Los Andes during the last 450 years ...... 116 D. R. Compagnucci S2-2-08 Spring/summer temperature reconstruction in western Norway 1734-2002 ...... 116 Oyvind Nordli S2-2-09 Reconstruction of early-summer dryness indices in mid-north region of China from 1500 using tree ring chronologies...... 118 LIU Hongbin S2-2-10 An extreme climatological event: the burning summer of the year 1743 over North China in the context of climatic changes ...... 118 Gaston R. Demaree S2-2-11 Mode and tempo of latest quaternary climate change in the East Sea/Sea of Japan ...... 119 Im Chul Shin S2-2-12 Amplitude and frequency modulation of multi-decadal, centennial and millennial climate variations as seen in proxy records during the Holocene and Pleistocene...... 120 D. M. Sonechkin S2-2-13 Reconstruction of a major historical climate anomaly: the Tate Hauudes Hiuimum...... 120 Hans Von Storch S2-2-14 The Jong-term variation of drought in spring and summer seasons and anomalous temperature during the last 1000 years in DPRK...... 121 Jo Song Har S2-2-15 Palaeoclimates in the desert regions of northwestern China during the last 30,000 years . YANG Xiaoping ...... 1 S2-2-16 Coral 8'80 record as an indicator of winter monsoon intensity in South China Sea...... 431 PENG Zicheng S2-2-17 The temperature variations revealed by SSA in the past 2000a in the Guliya ice core ...... 123 YANG Meixue
PS2-03: Features of persistence of winter temperature in Beijing...... 124 LI Hui PS2-04: A diagnostic analysis of temperature variations in Chongging ...... 125 LI Yonghua PS2-06: Feature of upper air temperature change in Xinjiang ...... 126 NAN Qinghong PS2-07: Some issues related to summer rainfall in North China ...... 127 SUN JiSong PS2-10: On the diurnal variation of globally averaged temperature and surface heat fluxes detected in data analysis and a GCM simulation...... 130 Isamu Yagai PS2-11: The climatic observation system and disaster warning ...... 130 YANG Lin PS2-12: Climatology of the rainfall in the Xinanjiang River basin...... 132 ZHU Juzhong PS2-14: Investigation and evaluation an frozen ground in Heilongjiang Province ...... 134 WANG Yuguang PS2-15: The characteristics of climate variation in Jiaxing during the recent 40 years ...... 136 GUO Keyi PS2-16: Research an rationalization of climatic change in Inner Mongolia...... 137 PEI Hao PS2-17: An analysis an the warming trend of Beijing in the recent 100 years...... 137 GUO Wenli PS2-18: Application of remote sensing data in environmental monitoring of Heilongjiang Province ...... 138 LI Xiufen PS2-19: Investigation of eco-environment by remote sensing in semi-arid and arid region of northem Shanxi Province ...... 139 Anlin LIU PS2-21: Applications of "3S" for monitoring soil moisture conditions in Beijing ...... 141 WANG Xiaoyun PS2-22: Vicarious radiometric calibration of FY- 1 D sensor ...... 142 ZHANG Yuxiang PS2-23: Application of 3S techniques in ecological engineering monitoring...... 142 PEI Hao PS2-24: Analysis of features of anomalous winter temperature in Shandong Province ...... 144 YANG Cheng-fang PS2-25: Long-term variation features of pacific subsurface temperature and El Nino...... 145 XUE DeQiang PS2-26: Paleogeography and glaciation of the Barents Sea shelf in late Pleistocene ...... 146 Gennady G. Matishov PS2-27: Air temperature change in Northeast China in the twenty-century ...... 147 SUN Fenghua PS2-28: Monitor El Nino using GMS blackbody temperature (TBB) ...... 148 JIANG Ji-xi PS2-29: Testing and adjusting of the inhomogeneity of surface air temperature data for China ...... 149 LI Qingxiang PS2-30: Steep warming over China during 1990s ...... 151 FENG Guolin PS2-31: Recent advances in study of rainfall variations in the historical periods of China ...... 151 ZHANG De'er PS2-32: Linking climate and disaster databases ...... 153 Michael J. Coughlan PS2-33: Change in growth season over Mainland China: 1961-2000...... 154 XU Mingzhi PS2-37: Characteristics of recent summer Changma (monsoon) in DPRK ...... 154 Kim Mun Uk
Session 3: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change April 1, 2003, Academic Hall, NMC (MR3)
S3-14 The relative impact of land-cover change and increasing CO2 concentration an global and regional climate...... 174 Mei ZHAO S3-15 Towards regional scale climate change detection ...... 174 Francis W. Zwiers
S3-16 Changes in temperature persistence due to the CO2 concentration increase ...... 175 C. Mares S3-17 Anthropogenic climate change in India...... 177 R. S. S. SUNDARVEL S3-18 Secular variation of annual precipitation fields over global land areas for 1948-2000...... 179 SHI Neng
PS3-01: Variation of 1961-2001 annual temperature anomalies in Jiangsu Province and its air-sea background features ...... 180 CAO Naihe PS3-02: Variation of 1961-1998 winter temperature anomalies in Jiangsu Province and air-sea background features...... 180 WU Zhiwei PS3-03: Numerical simulation of urbanization heat island impact and pollutant diffusion in Beijing ...... 180 LIU Haitao PS3-04: Winter temperature change of the last hundred years and its causes in Wuhan, Hubei Province ...... 182 ZHOU Yuehua PS3-05: Influence of global warming an the rainfall performance in Ethiopia ...... 184 Bisrat Kifle PS3-06: The sause analysis of the low runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River in recent years...... 184 FENG Jianying PS3-08: The influence of the City development an climate in Beijing ...... 185 CHEN Song PS3-09: Deteriorated environment leads to frequent occurrences of north drought and south flood in Eastern China...... 187 XU Qun PS3-10: Human and climatic change impact an Yangtze River floods ...... 188 M. Gemmer, L.King, Tong JIANG PS3-11: Climatic causes for dust storm decline in Inner Mongolia over the last 4 decades...... 189 GAO Tao
. 169 Session 4: Processes and Interactions within Climate System April 2, 2003, Multi-function Hall, NMC (MR6)
PS4-O1: A circulation signal of abnormal snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau and its relation to summer rainfall in China...... 202 CAI Xuezhan PS4-02: The baroclinic response of west tropical pacific to wind stress ...... 203 CHEN Xianyan PS4-03: Potential vorticity substance dynamics and its application in torrential rain forecast...... 204 GAO Shouting PS4-04: Modification of sea temperature induced by wind driven current under downslope windstorm in the coast...... 205 Hyo Choi PS4-05: Some issues related to summer rainfall in North China...... 207 Jisong SUN PS4-06: Role of sea spray in the air-sea interaction during a Storm...... 210 Weibiao LI PS4-07: A preliminary investigation of lunar influence an atmospheric circulation ...... 210 Guo-Qing LI PS4-08: ENSO predictive study based an SSA: a comparison of two schemes...... 211 LIU Jianwen PS4-09: Research of cloud water resource and weather modification...... 213 SU Zhengjun PS4-10: The tests of tropical cyclone in short-range climate prediction...... 215 Xie Dingsheng PS4-11: Developing and simulation of a model for the tropical Indian Ocean...... 216 YIN Yonghong PS4-12: Relationship between North China summer rainfall and Northern Hemisphere circulation and North Pacific SST...... 217 YU Run-ling PS4-13: Analysis of relationship between mud-rock-flow of the Sichuan Basin and monsoon ...... 218 YU Shuhua PS4-14: Water and heat resources and the environmental effect in North-Xinjiang ...... 219 Chunqiong YUAN.. PS4-15: Effects of land surface process an regional precipitation simulation an monthly time scale... ..220 ZHAO Ming PS4-16: A new method for short-term climate prediction by synthesizing long-term tendency and short-term deviation ...... 221 ZHOU Houfu PS4-17: Application of Kalman filter method in forecasting monthly average temperature ...... 222 ZHOU Xiaolan PS4-18: Impacts of intraseasonal oscillation an the East Asian Summer monsoon circulation during 1997/98 ENSO cycle...... 222 Congwen ZHU PS4-19: El Nifio and interannual variation of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean ...... 224 Yanke TAN.. PS4-20: The elementary analysis about water vapour resources and drought climate characteristics over Shandong region...... 224 GONG Dianli PS4-21: The correlative analysis between moisture transport over monsoon areas and the summer rainfall in Shandong Province ...... 226 WANG Qing PS4-22: The air-sea heat exchange at Xisha area during the onset of southwest monsoon in 2000 ...... 226 YAN Jun-yue PS4-23: An analysis of relationship between droughts in North China and sea-ice in Hudson Bay ...... 229 HE Jinhai PS4-24: A new approach to the predictability of ENSO: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation...... 229 MU Mu PS4-25: A study an relationship between Asian winter monsoon and climate variability during rainy season in China...... 230 YAN Hongming PS4-26: Relationship between torrential rain and the total rainfall in summer of Beijing ...... 232 WU Zhenghua
v PS4-27: Variations in tele-connection of ENSO and summer rainfall in Northern China: a role of the Indian summer monsoon ...... 233 Qi HU and Song FENG PS4-28: Scaling of atmosphere and ocean temperature correlations in observations and climate models...... 234 Klaus Fraedrich and Richard Blender PS4-29: A characteristic analysis of space-time variation of 500hpa height field in north Pacific oscillation (NPO) region...... 234 LIAN Yi PS4-30: Interaction between land ecosystem physiological process over Southwest China and climate change ...... 237 FAN Guangzhou PS4-31: A model to estimate the extraterrestrial radiation an rugged terrain based an DEM ...... 239 QIU Xin-Fa PS4-32: Relationship between the summer precipitation in Northeast China and sea surface temperature anomaly...... 241 SUN Li PS4-33: Multi-stage onset features and the indices choice of Asian summer monsoon...... 243 ZHOU Bing PS4-34: A comprehensive land surface model (CLSM) and its off-line experiments...... 243 CHEN Haishan PS4-35: Analysis an effect of urbanization an ground surface roughness ...... 244 XIE Yiyang PS4-36: Features of water vapor transfer by East Asia summer monsoon and their relations to rainfall anomalies over China ...... 246 TIAN Hong PS4-37: Monitoring El Nino Using GMS blackbody temperature ...... 248 JIANG Ji-xi PS4-38: The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean ...... 249 Bohua HUANG PS4-39: A new numerical approach an groundwater dynamics study for land surface models ...... 250 Hongwei YAN
Session 5: Projection of Climate Change April 1, 2003, Room 201, NMC (MR4)
S5-O1 Climate Modeling at the National Center for Atmospheric Research...... 251 Timothy L. Killeen S5-02 Significant levels of human-induced climate change projection in Asia during the 21" century...... 251 Zong-Ci ZHAO S5-03 Global and regional modeling of climate change 253 Alireza Shakiba S5-04 Introducing the effects of aircraft emissions into the mesoscale model MM5...... 253 Klaus Wyser, Deliang CHEN S5-05 Elimination of computational systematical errors and improvements of model climate drift...... 253 ZHONG Qing S5-06 Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the Western United States.... 254 L. Ruby Leung S5-07 North Atlantic Ocean wave climate change scenarios as derived from CGCM2 simulations ...... 255 Xiaolan L. WANG S5-08 Projecting future climate change: implications of carbon cycle model inter comparisons...... 256 Haroon S. Kheshgi S5-09 Future climate change due to the increased greenhouse gases in atmosphere in East Asia and China ...... 257 XU Ying S5-10 Simulated enhancement of Baiu-Meiyu activity under the global warming...... 258 Masahide Kimoto S5-11 Setting up PRECIS over China via validation and analyses an climate change responses of Hadley Centre GCMs as well as ERA experiment ...... 259 XU Yinlong S5-12 A study of reinitialized and continuous simulations for regional climate downscaling over eastern China...... 260 ZHANG Qing S5-13 Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia ...... 261 GAO Xuejie S5-14 The physical ensembling technique in the regional climate simulation...... 261 ZHONG Ke S5-15 Downscaling of GCM climate change scenarios of monthly Swedish precipitation ...... 264 Cecilia Hellström
PS5-O1: A short-term climate prediction model based an modular fuzzy neural network ...... 265 JIN Long PS5-02: A simulating test an summer climate change in the esst of Northwest China ...... 265 TIAN Wuwen PS5-03: Forecast of tropical cyclones with climatic model ...... 269 XIE Dingsheng PS5-04: Forecasting of precipitation in ten-days periods by using phase space method...... 270 ZHOU Xiaolan PS5-06: Simulation of a hydro-climatology model in China...... 270 ZENG Xinmin PS5-07: Comparisons of three convection parameterization schemes in regional climate simulations...... 271 PAN Jinsong PS5-08: Simulated study an land surface energy and hydrology Balance...... 271 ZHOU Suoquan
m PS5-09: Effects of interdiurnal and interannual variability reproduction an the ability of stochastic weather generator to simulate heat stress periods...... 272 Jan Kysely PS5-10: Model output statistics and climate variability over Nigeria, 1961-2000...... 273 E. O. Gbobaniyi PS5-11: On the Regional Climate Model (RCM) with variable resolution ...... 274 Lyu Gi Ryol
Session 6: Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change April 1-2, 2003, Conference Hall, AB (MR6)
PS6-O1: Model to evaluate the vulnerability of the Vegetation covers of Colombia in the face of a possible global climate change using GIS ...... 304 Gutierrez-Rey Hilda-Jeanneth PS6-02: Climatic variability/change, road condition and crime rate in Lagos Metropolis...... 306 Juddy N. Okpara PS6-03: Climate variability and irrigated agriculture: A case study of Khanuana distributary, middle Punjab Pakistan...... 308 Abdul Hamid PS6-04: The impact of climate variability and change an agriculture in Bulgaria ...... 310 Vesselin Alexandrov PS6-05: Adaptation to climate change in the water resources sector: An assessment for Uganda ...... 311 Magezi-Akiiki B. James PS6-06: Global climate change and implications for water resources in southern Africa...... 311 W. Zhakata PS6-07: Effects of elevated tropospheric ozone concentration an yield and physiological performance in Thai Rice Cultivar Chainat I (Oryza sativa L.) ...... 312 Watita Ariyaphanphitak PS6-08: Impacts, uncertainties and non-linearity of extreme events (heavy precipitation and floods) in a changing climate ...... 313 Luis J. Mata PS6-09: The signs and the influences of climate change from warm-dry to warm- wet in Xinjiang, China ...... 320 HU Ruji. PS6-11: The assessment of climate change impact an desertification in Inner Mongolia ...... 322 Baimeilan PS6-12: Impacts of climate change an stream flow in the Dongjiang Basin ...... 323 Xi CHEN PS6-13: Impact of extreme climatic event change an hydrology and water resources in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River...... 324 FENG Ming
n PS6-14: Analysis of spatial-temporal change of snow disaster and vulnerability of aninial husbandry in China...... 324 HAO Lu PS6-15: Climate Change and Adaptation of Wen Zhou Region ...... 327 Chunxiao JI PS6-16: Whcat yield changes under climate changes scenarios...... 328 JU Hui PS6-17: Effect of climate anomaly an the outbreaks of the oriental migratory locust in Henan province...... 329 KONG Hai-jiang PS6-18: Eco-environment consequences of climate change and the adaptation in Qinghai Province 330 LI Xift.i PS6-19: The Impacts of Antecedent ENSO Event an Sommer Air Temperature over Northeast China ...... 330 LIU shi PS6-20: The climate warming and its influence an crops and variety layout in Northeast China ...... 331 MA Shuging PS6-23: Study an cliniate potential productivity for winter crops under climate changes in Jiangxi Province...... 333 WEI Li PS6-24: Possible effect of climate warming upon agricultural development of coastal belt of Jiangsu Proviince...... 333 GU Xianyao & MIAO Qilong PS6-25: Possible effect of climate change an the coastal zone of Yangtze River Delta ...... 334 MA Li & MIAO Qilong PS6-26: Climate variations and land use in Danangou watershed, China: Examples of small-scale farmer's adaptation ...... 336 Johanna Hageback & Madelene Ostwald PS6-27: Infuence of future climates an availability of water resources in the Changjiang Delta region...... 337 QIU Xinfa & MIAO Qilong PS6-28: Influence of climate changes an total water resources in the Changjiang Delta area ...... 338 SHI Lan & MIAO Qilong PS6-29: Study of future climates effect upon the economic development with countermeasures in the Changjiang delta area...... 338 WANG Cuihua & MIAO Qilong PS6-30: Predicting the discharge of major river basins in China...... 339 XIE Zhenghui SU Fengge
n PS6-31: Warm season regional hydrological cycle and climate in Mainland China ...... 340 Qi HU PS6-32: Relationship between severe weather and low production of cotton in Hetian Region ...... 341 Qingyu GUO PS6-33: Crop Adaptations to rising atmospheric C02: Research & technology an Indian effort ...... 342 D. C. Upretty A. P. Mitra PS6-34: Low frequency variability of global mean surface temperature during the last millennium...... 343 CAI Jingning PS6-35: Using a crop/soil model and GIS techniques to assess rice yield change under climate change in China...... 345 Xiong WEI PS6-37: The projection of the effects of climate change an the riet changes of soil carbon ...... 346 Chengyi ZHANG PS6-38: The importance of field measurements, observations, and models in ecological research...... 346 Ruth A. Reck PS6-39: Impact of climate change an vegetation...... 348 Leela Pradhan PS6-40: Global warming and use of energy ...... 349 TAI Guoxin PS6-41: Risk assessment of potential sea level rise of the Liaohe Delta region based an GIS ...... 350 CUI Hongyan LUAN Weixin
Special Session 2: Meeting of the Sino-British Cooperative Study an Impact Assessment of Climate Change April 2, 2003, Conference Hall, AB
SS2-O1 Policy responses to the impact of climate change David Warrilow and/or Diana Wilkins SS2-02 UK-China joint project to assess the potential impact of climate change an Chinese agriculture: progress and integrated approaches LIN Erda SS2-03 Regional climate modelling System (PRECIS) (UK Meteorological Office) SS2-04 Validation and climate change response of Hadley Centre GCMs over China XU Yinlong SS2-05 Application and development of climate change scenarios for impact studies Michelle Colley SS2-06 Studies of social-economic scenarios for climate change impact YAO Yufang SS2-07 Modelling water resources, climate variability and climate change Declan Conway SS2-08 Regional Crop modeling and the possible impacts of climate change an wheat, rice and maize production in China JU Hui and XIONG Wei
n Session 7: Climate Changes in Polar and Tibet Plateau April 2, 2003, East Hall, NSMC (MR2)
S7-01 Climate and environmental changes an the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (tentative) ...... 352 XU Xiangde WANG Jizhi S7-02 Variability of air temperature in the Arctic in the 20th century ...... 352 Rajmund Przybylak S7-03 The study an land surface heat fluxes in the Tibetan Plateau by using the field observations and satellite data - from GMAE/Tibet to CAMP/Tibet 354 Yaoming MA S7-04 The mechanism of convective boundary layer development over a plateau valley...... 356 Kun YANG S7-05 Climate and environmental changes in the polar regions ...... 357 BIAN Lingen S7-06 Contemporary climate changes in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere: Daily time resolution ...... 357 Pavel Ya S7-07 Radiative forcing and climate effect of aerosols over the Arctic ...... 359 Rong-Ming HU S7-08 Processes and interactions within climate System: a study an cryosphere of Himalayan mountain ecosystem...... 360 S. Shanmuganandan S7-09 Climate variation during the Holocene recorded in Hongyuan peat bog of the Tibet Plateau ...... 362 Y.T. HONG S7-10 Effects of climatic changes of southern Qinghai Plateau an the alpine meadow...... 362 ZHANG Guo-sheng
PS7-O1: Climate variability and predictability-the World Climate Research Programme's CLIVAR project...... 36 3 Michael Sparrow PS7-02: The CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and CliC (climate and cryosphere) projects in the Southern Ocean region ...... 365 Michael Sparrow PS7-03: Climate change in the up-reach areas of the Yellow River in Qinghai, China and its influence an grassland desertification...... 366 ZHANG Guo-sheng
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n PS7-04: A study an changes of Vegetation and snow area in Qilian Mountains using meteorology satellite data ...... 367 GUO Ni PS7-05: The characteristics of Antarctic climatic change...... 368 LU Longhua PS7-06: Relationship between freezing-thawing processes of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the atmospheric circulation over East Asia ...... 370 WANG Cheng-hai PS7-07: Effects of the Surface sensible heat flux anomaly in the Tibet Plateau an East Asian winter monsoon ...... 370 WU Qiuxia PS7-08: A preliminary study of the regional climate change at the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau ...... 371 LI Yue-qing PS7-09: QBO Signal in Total Ozone over Tibet ...... 373 Zou Han PS7-10: A comparison between net accumulation of Mount Qomolangma glacial and Indian summer monsoon rainfall ...... 375 ZHANG Dongqi
Session 8: Aerosol and Regional Climate Change April 2, 2003, Room 201, NMC (MR4)
S8-01 Role of tropospheric aerosols in regional-continental scale surface temperature changes over China ...... 377 Qian-Gen ZHU ...... S8-02 Database development and estimating of methane emission from rice field in Thailand using DNDC model K. Smakgahn...... 379 S8-03 Characterization of anthropogenic aerosols and its radiative forcing over an urban environment - A case study from hyderabad, India K. Madhavi Latha ...... 380 S8-04 Measurements of the stratospheric aerosol by spectral photometry of the twilight sky...... 381 Mateshvili Nina S8-05 Black carbon aerosol and its variations in the urban: Industrial atmosphere ...... 383 WANG Gengchen S8-06 Sources and Emission for Asian Dust Aerosol...... 384 X.Y. ZHANG S8-07 Sophisticated transport of tracers and the impact an global vapor circulation with AFES...... 385 PENG Xindong S8-08 The role of black carbon an global climate change: a perspective from automobile industry Qingyuan ...... 387 SONG S8-09 Estimate of aerosol radiative impacts with integration of MODIS retrievals, GOCART simulations, and AERONET measurements ...... 389 Hongbin YU
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Session 9: Climate Change and Sustainable April 2, 2003, Academic Hall, NMC (MR3)
S9-10 The UNFCCC and role of science ...... 412 Dennis Tirpak. S9-12Understanding human development potentials and emissions demand with empirical analysis using time series and cross-sectional data ...... 412 PAN Jiahua S9-13 Climate change and sustainable development problem ...... 413 V. Cazac
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PS9-O1: Reduction of methane emission from solid waste under national mitigation plan and combined technologies approach ...... 414 Sirintomthep Towprayoon PS9-02: Climate change and carbon trading: The Gase of Bangladesh ...... 415 Aminur Rahman PS9-03: Global Environment Facility in climate change area and its activities in China ...... 416 WEN Gang PS9-04: Pricing network utilities for sustainable consumption...... 417 Aviel Verbruggen PS9-05: Climate change and sustainable development...... 419 MENG Zhaohan PS9-06: The rainfall characteristics and production structure in the Central Asia and Northwest...... 420 China Lianchun SONG PS9-07: The climate change and agricultural sustainable development of Yunnan Province...... 421 HUANG Chuankun PS9-09: A glance of climate change and Nepal's policy for mitigation ...... 423 Juddha Bahadur Gurung PS9-10: Sustainable development in China through the CDM ...... 423 B. ZHANG PS9-11: Fueling the Economy with Coal without Harnring Climate ...... 424 QIAN Jingjing PS9-12: What if the construction of shelter-forest System in 3N areas when completed by 2050 ...... 425 ZHANG Hongfeng S9-13: Precipitation and sustainable use of water resource in Guizhou Province, China ...... 426 YU Junwei S9-14: Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Sustainability in Kenya ...... 427 D.K Andima S9-15: Assessment of the role of wood products in mitigating climate change...... 428 Rodel D. Lasco S6-37: Impact of climate variation and change an hydroelectric energy generation from Ainji reservoir in Northwest Nigeria...... 432 Mary Ottu Where and Why Does the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon Onset First? ...... 434 Y F. Qian
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