THE POLITICS OF POSSIBILITY THE POLITICS OF POSSIBILITY Risk and Security Beyond Probability louise amoore Duke University Press Durham and London 2013 © 2013 Duke University Press All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America on acid- free paper ∞ Designed by Courtney Leigh Baker. Typeset in Whitman by Copperline Book Services, Inc. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Amoore, Louise. The politics of possibility : risk and security beyond probability / Louise Amoore. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn 978–0-8223–5545–8 (cloth : alk. paper)—isbn 978–0-8223–5560–1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. International relations—Risk assessment. 2. National security—Technological innovations. 3. Terrorism—Prevention—Technological innovations. i. Title. jz6368.a46 2013 355.'033—dc23 2013024843 Sections of chapter 1 appeared previously in “Algorithmic War: Everyday Geographies of the War on Terror,” Antipode 41, no. 1 (2009). A version of chapter 2 appeared previously as “Data Derivatives: On the Emergence of a Security Risk Calculus for Our Times,” Theory, Culture & Society 28, no. 6 (2011): 24–43. For Gracie and Tom Contents Acknowledgements ix introduction. On the Politics of Possibility 1 Part I. TECHNIQUES 1 on authority. Probabilities for a World of Possibility 29 2 on risk. Securing Uncertain Futures 55 Part II. SPACES 3 on the line. Life Signatures and the Writing of the Border 79 4 on location. Reconciling Security and Mobility 105 Part III. EFFECTS 5 on aesthetics. Security’s Objects and the Form of Data 129 6 on a potential politics. Toward an Ethics of the Unanticipated 155 Notes 177 Bibliography 203 Index 217 Acknowledgments To reflect on the gestation of a book is to confront the impossibility of ever telling a complete story. One imagines always a process with a distinct be- ginning, a series of key moments along the way, and a defined point when the work is done. If this were the truth of the experience of exploring an idea, pushing at its edges, talking and writing about it over a period of years, then expressing thanks to all those who have played their part would be easy—for they would simply assemble along the route. Instead, of course, identifying the many moments when something new emerges, or when some idea long held dissipates and disappears from view, is profoundly dif- ficult. I know only that I am fortunate beyond words to work with friends, colleagues, and interlocutors whose lively thinking and generous support are the very conditions of possibility of this book. I am especially grateful to work with such wonderful colleagues in the Department of Geography at Durham University. Perhaps because some of my colleagues work in laboratories, model sea level changes, examine the dynamics of landslide or ice sheet, there is an atmosphere of experi- mentation and a support for pursuing a hunch! My profound thanks to colleagues past and present: Ash Amin, Ben Anderson, Mike Bentley, David Campbell, Angharad Closs- Stephens, Nick Cox, Mike Crang, Stuart Elden, Steve Graham, Alex Hall, Francisco Klauser, Paul Langley, Anthony Long, Colin McFarlane, Joe Painter, and Dave Petley. I thank them for their un- wavering support, their generous contributions to many workshops and seminars, their capacity to ask difficult questions gently, and for all the times I found clippings from the London Review of Books or obscure com- puter modeling articles in my mail tray! I have also been extremely lucky to have such brilliant students—PhD students Emily Jackson, Diana Martin, Patrick Murphy, and Nat O’Grady; a quite extraordinary master’s Risk and Security seminar class of 2011–12; and undergraduates in Politics/Space and Political Geography who challenge me every time. The course of the research and writing of this book has been inter- disciplinary—I owe debts to theorist friends and colleagues in sociology, law, geography, international relations, and the arts, all of whom criticized and shaped my thinking and writing: Claudia Aradau, Jane Bennett, Roy Boyne, Roger Burrows, Martin Coward, Deborah Cowen, Dana Cuff, Matt Davies, Mick Dillon, Jenny Edkins, Kevin Haggerty, Kim Hutchings, Debbie Lisle, Luis Lobo- Guerrero, David Lyon, Adrian MacKenzie, Valsamis Mitsilegas, Veronique Pin- Fat, Michael Pryke, Evelyn Ruppert, Mike Savage, Mike Shapiro, Andrew Webster, Cindy Weber, and Maja Zehfuss. Thanks to Judit Carrera and colleagues at the Centre for Contemporary Culture Barcelona for hosting two inspirational conferences—Architectures of Fear and Tar- geted Publics—of interdisciplinary conversation and critique. This book has also benefitted enormously from debates hosted by Richard Tutton and colleagues at Lancaster University’s Centre for the Social and Economic Aspects of Genomics (cesagen) and particularly from the events hosted by the Wellcome Trust. Marieke de Goede and her colleagues at the Uni- versity of Amsterdam have hosted a series of workshops and research vis- its that have influenced the ideas in this book beyond measure. The audi- ences at conferences and workshops over past years are too numerous to mention here, but they should know that their generous comments are deeply appreciated. In the United Kingdom we are now perennially reminded that our re- search must have “demonstrable” impact beyond the academy. What is often forgotten, though, is that our work benefits immeasurably from the careful thought and insight of those who engage with the world through their practice. I have been extraordinarily fortunate to be able to debate the ideas in this book with a group of exceptional lawyers and advocates whose job it is to defend those targeted by the security techniques of the merely possible. I would like to thank, in particular, Frances Webber, Queen’s Council, and Haroun Atallah of Islamic Relief, whose generosity in sharing their experiences has had a lasting impact on my sense of the effects of the politics of possibility. Thanks also to Gavin Sullivan and his colleagues at the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights, particularly for their hosting, with Amnesty International, of the inspirational Berlin con- x acknowledgments ference Ten Years After 9/11. In a quite different way the critical practice of the artists Marcos Ramirez and Meghan Trainor has opened up for me a new sense of potentiality. Some of the research for this book was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ersc) and the Netherlands Organisation for Sci- entific Research (nwo) bilateral grant Data Wars (res062230592), which I was awarded along with my friend and collaborator Marieke de Goede. I am fortunate to have been able to speak with policy makers, software de- signers, borders agencies, mathematicians, and computer scientists, and I thank them profoundly for their assistance. Marieke and I were joined by an outstanding team of researchers, including Mara Wesseling, Jon Mendel, and Alex Hall. Alex was my research assistant at Durham University for four years—her lively interventions, measured critique, and indomitable per- sistence with fieldwork have been quite incredible. Other elements of the research were funded by the esrc grant Contested Borders (res250087), which I was awarded along with my colleague and collaborator Steve Graham. Steve’s work on the technologies of security that penetrate urban architecture—as well as his encouragement to complete this book—has been inspiring. The final stages of manuscript preparation were funded by the Research Councils United Kingdom (rcuk) Global Uncertainties Fel- lowship award “Securing Against Future Events” (es/k0002761). Marking the end of a book is perhaps more difficult even than describ- ing its between times. I am immensely grateful to Courtney Berger of Duke University Press for her wise counsel—all of the superlatives her authors use about her are true. Two readers of the manuscript, Mick Dillon and Michael Shapiro, have offered critical and supportive comments in equal measure, and the book is the better for their interventions; thank you both. Without my best friend Marieke de Goede this book would certainly not have found its end point. When she said “Lou, I do think it is done now, let it go,” she may have been the only person who could have said it. It is a blessing indeed to have such a friend—for glasses of wine and novels, for shopping, and for philosophy on the train to Amsterdam, thank you. Thank you Gunther, Anna, and Caspar for making me feel at home in your home. Finally, as always, thank you, Paul, for patience and support beyond words. It is always more than a room of one’s own that is required. I know that I am extremely lucky to have found you, the man who quietly reads the draft, leaves the margins full of wisdom, and then takes our children, Grace and Tom, to the beach. Thank you, my lovely three, so much. acknowledgments xi INTRODUCTION On the Politics of Possibility She’ll scrutinize hundreds of visitors a day to keep us safe. Our solutions let her know what to look for. —Raytheon Systems’ advertising campaign, appearing in UK newspapers in 2006 In the spring of 2008, the UK government announced the award of its sub- stantial “e- Borders” contract to the self- styled Trusted Borders consortium led by the American weapons manufacturer Raytheon Company. Charged with the five- year roll out of what was to be the world’s most ambitious data- driven border controls system, Raytheon’s advertising campaign de- picts a watchful border guard, ever attentive to the biometrically verified and risk-scored travelers whom she “scrutinizes to keep us safe.” The data that are mined, integrated, and analyzed within e- Borders are of a specific type—they are designed to look for not only the settled probabilities of future risk (such as names on watch lists or no- fly lists) but also for the possible risks amid an array of future uncertainties.