DOCSLIB.ORG

2018-Based Sub-National Population Projections for Northern Ireland - Summary

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
2018-Based Sub-National Population Projections for Northern Ireland - Summary 2018-based Sub - N ational Population Projections for Northern Ireland - summary The impact of the current coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has not been taken into account in the production of the sub-national population projections. ESTIMATES PROJECTIONS 2.100 By 2043, the population of Northern Ireland is projected to 2.000 reach 1.99 million 1.99 1.900 1.95 million The population of Northern Ireland is million projected to increase by 70,100 people 1.800 1.88 in the first 10 years to mid-2028. Over million the next 25 years the population is 1.700 projected to grow by 107,600 people to reach 1.99 million in mid-2043. Population(millions) 1.600 Non-zero Y axis 1.500 1991 2018 2028 2043 Lisburn & Castlereagh 9.5 The population of Lisburn and Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon 8.1 Castlereagh is projected to grow Mid Ulster 7.0 fastest of the all LGDs in Newry, Mourne & Down 5.4 Northern Ireland between mid- Northern Ireland 3.7 2018 and mid-2028 Antrim & Newtownabbey 2.9 Fermanagh & Omagh 2.5 Based on past trends the population of Ards & North Down 2.5 four LGDs is projected to grow faster Mid & East Antrim 1.9 than the NI level over the next decade. Belfast 1.3 In addition, three LGDs Derry City & Causeway Coast & Glens 0.7 Strabane, Causeway Coast & Glens and Derry City & Strabane -0.2 Belfast are projected to remain relatively stable. -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Population change (%) Percentage change Components of population -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% change by LGD over the decade Lisburn & Castlereagh Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Natural change (births minus deaths) Mid Ulster and net migration are the two Newry, Mourne & Down components which contribute to population change. Lisburn and Northern Ireland Castlereagh LGD is projected to Antrim & Newtownabbey experience the largest population growth Fermanagh & Omagh over the decade (9.5 per cent). The main Ards & North Down Natural Change driver of growth in Lisburn and Mid & East Antrim Castlereagh is projected to be net Belfast Net Migration migration (7.0 per cent), with natural Causeway Coast & Glens Population change making up 2.5 per cent. Derry City & Strabane Change www.nisra.gov.uk Source: 2018-based Sub-National Population Projections Figures may not sum due to rounding 2018-based Sub-National Population Projections for Northern Ireland - summary Proportion of Population Mid-2018 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Proportion of the population Mid-2028 aged 65 and over projected to Ards & North Down 2018 2028 increase across all LGDs Causeway Coast & glens Mid & East Antrim For each of the LGDs the proportion of Fermanagh & Omagh the population aged 65 and over is Lisburn & Castlereagh projected to increase. In mid-2018, only Antrim & Newtownabbey one LGD had a population where at least one in 5 people were aged 65 and over, Newry, Mourne & Down Ards and North Down LGD (21.0 per Derry City & Strabane cent). By mid-2028, this figure is Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon projected to rise to 5 out of eleven LGDs, Mid Ulster ranging from 20.3 per cent in Lisburn Belfast and Castlereagh LGD to 25.2 per cent in Northern Ireland Ards and North Down LGD. Ordered by proportion of population in mid-2028 Local Government District OADR* OADR Old age dependency ratios (2018) (2028) across the LGDs Antrim & Newtownabbey 268 272 Ards & North Down 352 367 Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon 249 250 The old age dependency ratio (OADR) of Belfast 226 223 an area will likely increase as a Causeway Coast & Glens 294 323 consequence of an ageing population. Derry City & Strabane 237 253 The OADR is projected to increase for all Fermanagh & Omagh 275 298 LGDs by mid-2028, with the exception of Lisburn & Castlereagh 279 279 Belfast LGD and Lisburn and Mid & East Antrim 306 317 Castlereagh LGD. The largest increase Mid Ulster 231 240 is projected in Causeway Coast and Newry, Mourne & Down 252 268 Glens LGD where the OADR is projected Northern Ireland 264 273 to rise from 294 dependants per 1,000 to *Old age dependency ratio – number of dependents per 1,000 working age 323 per 1,000. Median Age Mid-2018 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Median age is projected to rise Mid-2028 to over 40.0 years in 8 out of Newry, Mourne & Down 2018 2028 eleven LGDs by mid-2028. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Derry City & Strabane The median age for Northern Ireland is Mid Ulster projected to be 41.2 years by mid-2028. Causeway Coast & glens The largest increase in median age is Ards & North Down projected in Newry, Mourne and Down Antrim & Newtownabbey LGD (3.7 years). In mid-2018, five LGDs Fermanagh & Omagh had a median age over 40.0 years, Belfast however, by mid-2028 this number is Mid & East Antrim projected to rise to 10 LGDs, ranging Lisburn & Castlereagh from 40.1 years in Mid Ulster LGD to Northern Ireland 46.3 years in Ards and North Down LGD. Ordered by increase in median age www.nisra.gov.ukThe Dependency Ratio is 2026 2016 200 250 300 350 400 Source:projected 2018-based to increaseSub-National Population Projections Figures may not sum due to rounding From mid-2016 to mid-2026 the Ards & North Old Age Dependency Ratio Down .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Mid Ulster District Council Annual Report Performance Improvement
    Mid Ulster District Council Annual Report Performance Improvement Plan Self-Assessment 2018 – 2019 August 2019 Draft version 0.7 25.08.16 Contents Foreword 1.0 INTRODUCTION 5 1.1 Annual Improvement report 2.0 SECTION TWO Duty To Improve, Council’s Hierarchy of Plans & 5 Performance Management 2.1 Duty to Improve 5 2.2 What is improvement? 5 2.3… Mid Ulster District Council’s Corporate Planning Framework 6 2.3.1… Community Plan 8 2.3.2.. Corporate Plan 10 2.3.3 Corporate Improvement Plan 10 2.3.4 …Service Plans 11 2.3.5 …Statutory Indicators/Standards and Self-Imposed 11 Indicators/Standards 2.3.6.…Staff Engagement and Appraisals and Personal Development Plans (PDP’s) 12 3.0 SECTION THREE Choosing and Consulting on Our Improvement 12 Objectives 3.1 Developing the Improvement Objectives:2018 - 2019 12 3.2 Consultation 13 3.3 What the Consultation told us 13 4.0 SECTION FOUR Council’s Self-Assessment of Improvement Objectives 14 4.1 Council’s Improvement Plan - 14 4.2 Self-Assessment 14 5.0 SECTION FIVE: Improvement Objectives – Projects Progress and 16 Assessment 5.1 To assist in the growth of the local economy by increasing the number 16 of visitors to our district 5.2 To help manage our waste and environment by reducing the amount of 25 waste going to landfill 5.3 To improve the accessibility of our services by increasing the number 31 available online 5.4 To support people to adopt healthier lifestyles by increasing usage of 39 Council Recreational facilities 6.0 SECTION SIX: Council’s Self-Assessment and benchmarking of statutory 45 indicators/standards 2018/19.
    [Show full text]
  • Partnership Panel Committee Report Submitted To: Council Meeting
    Title of Report: Partnership Panel Committee Council Meeting Report Submitted To: Date of Meeting: 6 October 2020 For Decision or For Decision For Information Linkage to Council Strategy (2019-23) Strategic Theme Leader and Champion Outcome We will establish key relationships with Government, agencies and potential strategic partners in Northern Ireland and external to it which helps us to deliver our vision for this Council area. Lead Officer Director of Corporate Services Budgetary Considerations Cost of Proposal N/A Included in Current Year Estimates N/A Capital/Revenue N/A Code N/A Staffing Costs N/A Screening Required for new or revised Policies, Plans, Strategies or Service Delivery Requirements Proposals. Section 75 Screening Completed: Yes/No Date: Screening EQIA Required and Yes/No Date: Completed: Rural Needs Screening Completed Yes/No Date: Assessment (RNA) RNA Required and Yes/No Date: Completed: Data Protection Screening Completed: Yes/ No Date: Impact Assessment DPIA Required and Yes/No Date: (DPIA) Completed: 201006 – Partnership Panel Key Outcomes Note – Version No. 1 Page 1 of 2 1.0 Purpose of Report 1.1 The Purpose of the Report is to present the Key Outcomes Note from the Partnership Panel. 2.0 Background 2.1 The Northern Ireland Partnership Panel convened for the first time in four years on 16 September 2020. This Outcomes Note is provided by NILGA, the Northern Ireland Local Government Association, to provide an immediate update to all 11 member councils. Full Minutes will follow. 3.0 Recommendation(s) 3.1 It is recommended that Council note the Partnership Panel Key Outcomes Note, dated 16 September 2020.
    [Show full text]
  • BASELINE REPORT Social Wellbeing February 2017
    BASELINE REPORT Social Wellbeing February 2017 Love Living Please Note Some of the data in this document is sourced from sample survey data. Data from a sample survey means that the whole population of Northern Ireland has not been asked. Therefore, when looking at the figures, the confidence intervals/ranges associated with the figures should be noted. A confidence interval represents the range of values in which the true population value is likely to lie. It is based on the sample estimate and the confidence level. Example: For example, the employment rate for Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council in 2015 was estimated to be 70.7%. This figure had a stated 95% confidence interval of +/- 5.8 percentage points. This means that we would expect that in 95% of samples, the true employment rate for 2015 for Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council was between 64.9% and 76.5%. Also, due to some of the small numbers presented in some of the sub-categories, some caution should be taken when interpreting the figures. Analysis by Local Government District In most of the datasets used, individual records are attributed to Local Government Districts on the basis of their postcode. However, in some cases the postcode may be missing/invalid and cannot be assigned to a Local Government District but are included in the Northern Ireland totals. As an example, in the School Leavers data (Department of Education), approximately 0.6% of pupils have incomplete or missing postcode information. Therefore, the sum of the School Leavers in each of the Local Government Districts in 2014/15 is 22,224 pupils.
    [Show full text]
  • Planning Applications Validated - Valid Only for the Period:-22/10/2018 to 26/10/2018
    Planning Applications Validated - Valid Only For the Period:-22/10/2018 to 26/10/2018 Count : 22 Reference Number Proposal Location Application Agent Name & Address Type LA09/2018/1392/F Amendment and alteration to 30m West of 22 Luney Full Bannvale Architectural curtilage, with repositioning of Road Services 104A Ballynease dwelling and garage of Magherafelt Road previously approved site H/ Portglenone 2010/0395/F BT44 8NX LA09/2018/1393/F Proposed spray booth and Adjacent to Unit 5 Full Don Sonner 26a St Jeans shot blaster unit Creagh Ind Estate Cottages Toomebridge Cookstown BT80 8DQ LA09/2018/1394/F Single storey extension to rear 17 Derrychrin Park Full Paul Mallon 26 Derrychrin of dwelling Coagh Road Cookstown Coagh Cookstown BT80 0HJ LA09/2018/1396/F Proposed extension and 33 Leitrim Road Full Newline Architects 48 Main alterations to existing dwelling Castledawson Street and outbuildings Castledawson BT45 8AB LA09/2018/1397/O Dwelling and garage and Lands between 20 and Outline Building Design Solutions 76 associated site works 28 Reclain Road Main Street Dungannon Pomeroy BT70 2QP LA09/2018/1398/LDE Works have commenced prior Site to the rear of 12 LD Eamonn Moore Architect 18 to expiration of planning High Street Certificate Westbury Gardens approval but not yet complete Draperstown Existing Cookstown it will be 3 residential dwelling BT80 8WE units Page 1 of 5 Planning Applications Validated - Valid Only For the Period:-22/10/2018 to 26/10/2018 Count : 22 Reference Number Proposal Location Application Agent Name & Address Type
    [Show full text]
  • Planning Applications Validated - for the Period 01/07/2020 to 31/07/2020
    Planning Applications Validated - For the Period 01/07/2020 to 31/07/2020 Reference Number Proposal Location Application Type Agent Name & Address LA09/2020/0763/F Proposed silo and dry Farmyard at 29 Full CQ Architects pen cattle shed with Crancussy Road 23 Dunamore Road agricultural access Cookstown Cookstown provided to fields at the BT80 9NR rear LA09/2020/0764/DC Discharge of condition 8 North of 3 Discharge of APS Architects LLP Unit 4 on previously approved Coolreaghs Condition Mid Ulster Business Park application Road Sandholes Road LA09/2019/0994/F Cookstown Cookstown BT80 9LU LA09/2020/0765/F Amendment of design East of 18 Lisgallon Full J.Aidan Kelly Ltd 50 and access laneway as Road Tullycullion Road approved in Ennish Dungannon M/2005/0504/O Dungannon BT70 3LY LA09/2020/0766/F Erection of Replacement 35 Lisbeg Road Full Bernard J Donnelly Dwelling & Retention of Ballygawley 30 Lismore Road Ex. dwelling as outbuilding Ballygawley / store. BT70 2ND LA09/2020/0767/NMC Change part of external North of 3 Non APS Architects LLP Unit finish from dark grey Coolreaghs Road Material 4 Mid Ulster Business facing brick to dark grey Cookstown Change Park Sandholes Road self colored render to all Cookstown house types BT80 9LU LA09/2020/0768/F Proposed Replacement 36 Granville Road Full J Aiden Kelly Ltd Dwelling Dungannon 50 Tullycullion Road Co Tyrone Dungannon BT70 3LY LA09/2020/0770/F Proposed replacement 33 Blackpark Road Full floodlights to main Toomebridge playing pitch LA09/2020/0771/F Retention of engineering and 73 Derryvale Road Full C McIlvar Ltd sandblasting business to Coalisland Unit 7 include use of No.
    [Show full text]
  • Belfast MIPIM 2020 Delegation Programme
    Delegation Programme Tuesday 10th March 09:00 Belfast Stand 10:00 - 10:45 Belfast Stand 11:00 – 11:45 Belfast Stand 12:00 - 14:00 Belfast Stand Opens Belfast Potential: Perfectly Positioned Belfast: City of Innovation - Investor Lunch Where Ideas Become Reality Tea, Coffee & Pastries Suzanne Wylie, Chief Executive, Belfast City Council By Invitation Only Speakers Scott Rutherford, Director of Research and Enterprise, Queen’s University Belfast Thomas Osha, Senior Vice President, Innovation & Economic Development, Wexford Science & Technology Petr Suska, Chief Economist and Head of Urban Economy Innovation, Fraunhofer Innovation Network Chair Suzanne Wylie, Chief Executive, Belfast City Council 14:15 – 14:55 Belfast Stand 15:00 – 15:45 Belfast Stand 16:00 Belfast Stand 18:00 Belfast Stand Sectoral focus on film and Our Waterfront Future: Keynote with Belfast Stand Closes Belfast Stand Reopens creative industries in Belfast Wayne Hemingway & Panel Discussion On-stand Networking Speakers Speakers James Eyre, Commercial Director, Titanic Quarter Wayne Hemingway, Founder, HemingwayDesign Joe O’Neill, Chief Executive, Belfast Harbour Scott Wilson, Development Director, Belfast Harbour Nick Smith, Consultant, Belfast Harbour Film Studios James Eyre, Commercial Director, Titanic Quarter Tony Wood, Chief Executive, Buccaneer Media Cathy Reynolds, Director of City Development and Regeneration, Belfast City Council Chair Stephen Reid, Chief Executive, Ards and North Down Borough Nicola Lyons, Production Manager, Northern Ireland Screen Council Chair
    [Show full text]
  • Business Plan
    Ards and North Down Digital Strategy Digitally Connected 2019-2022 Contents 1. Executive Summary 2 2. Introduction 9 3. Background 11 4. Digital Sector 27 5. Digital Infrastructure 38 6. Digital Skills 59 7. Delivery 68 Annex 1: Glossary 72 Annex 2: Digital SIC codes 74 Annex 3: References 75 1. Executive Summary It is well understood that a vibrant and growing digital sector is at the heart of any thriving economy. The sector itself is valuable in that the jobs it provides tend to be high value. The general level of growth in the sector is strong and a good supply of digital skills is essential as most other sectors employ significant numbers of digital employees to manage their businesses and increase productivity. The Ards and North Down – Digitally Connected strategy aims to outline the wider strategic, economic and societal background as a basis for developing three integrated digital strands: ▪ Digital Sector ▪ Digital Infrastructure ▪ Digital Skills 2 Ards and North Down Borough Council digital strategy “Digitally Connected” 2019 - 2022 1.1 Background The geography of Ards and North Down is characterised by significant rural areas and a small number of main towns. This The Ards and North Down – Digitally Connected strategy is affects the economy of the Borough, which is also strongly developed within a background defined by wider economic, influenced by the close proximity to Belfast. societal and digital strategies and initiatives. It must also Although the digital sector in Ards and North Down is a relatively accommodate and reflect the current position and requirements small element of the Borough’s economy, the digital sector in of the Borough.
    [Show full text]
  • Ards and North Down Borough Council Corporate Plan 2015-19
    Ards and North Down Borough Council Corporate Plan 2015-19 Page 1 of 17 CORPORATE PLAN 2015-2019 Contents Page 1. Introduction 3 2. Our area 4 3. Our purpose and vision 9 4. Our objectives 10 5. Delivering the plan 15 6. Strategic role of the Council 16 7. Our core values 17 2 Introduction In 2014, the people of Ards and North Down elected 40 councillors to represent them in their new Borough. On 1 April 2015 the new Council for Ards and North Down was established, serving a population of 157,000 over 228 square miles. We have an annual operating budget of approximately £46 million and a workforce of almost 1,000, delivering a range of services to local residents. These include refuse collection and disposal, street cleaning, recycling, community development, economic development, environmental health, building control, leisure services, parks and play areas, arts and tourism. We have new powers including planning, off-street parking and responsibility for Donaghadee Harbour. From 2016, we will also have responsibility for enhanced economic, physical and social regeneration. Community planning is a further new power that will have a significant impact upon how we engage with our residents and empower them to help us make decisions for the new Borough. This plan, which covers the first four years of the Council, outlines our purpose, priorities and objectives. It describes our ambitions for how local services will be delivered more efficiently and effectively for everyone. It is supported by detailed operational plans and will regularly be reviewed through our performance management processes.
    [Show full text]
  • BASELINE REPORT Economic Wellbeing February 2017
    BASELINE REPORT Economic Wellbeing February 2017 Love Living Please Note Some of the data in this document is sourced from sample survey data. Data from a sample survey means that the whole population of Northern Ireland has not been asked. Therefore, when looking at the figures, the confidence intervals/ranges associated with the figures should be noted. A confidence interval represents the range of values in which the true population value is likely to lie. It is based on the sample estimate and the confidence level. Example: For example, the employment rate for Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council in 2015 was estimated to be 70.7%. This figure had a stated 95% confidence interval of +/- 5.8 percentage points. This means that we would expect that in 95% of samples, the true employment rate for 2015 for Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council was between 64.9% and 76.5%. Also, due to some of the small numbers presented in some of the sub-categories, some caution should be taken when interpreting the figures. Analysis by Local Government District In most of the datasets used, individual records are attributed to Local Government Districts on the basis of their postcode. However, in some cases the postcode may be missing/invalid and cannot be assigned to a Local Government District but are included in the Northern Ireland totals. As an example, in the School Leavers data (Department of Education), approximately 0.6% of pupils have incomplete or missing postcode information. Therefore, the sum of the School Leavers in each of the Local Government Districts in 2014/15 is 22,224 pupils.
    [Show full text]
  • List of Northern Ireland Schools Achieving Green Flag Status 2016-2017 School Year
    List of Northern Ireland Schools Achieving Green Flag Status 2016-2017 School Year School Town Council area Fairview Primary School Ballyclare Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council Parkhall Primary School Antrim Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council St Mary's-on-the-Hill Primary School Newtownabbey Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council Templepatrick Primary School Ballyclare Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council Abbey Primary School Newtownards Ards and North Down Borough Council Bangor Central Primary School Bangor Ards and North Down Borough Council Bloomfield Primary School Bangor Ards and North Down Borough Council CLIFTON SPECIAL SCHOOL Bangor Ards and North Down Borough Council Killinchy Primary School Killinchy Ards and North Down Borough Council Kircubbin Community Nursery Kircubbin Ards and North Down Borough Council School St Finian's Primary School Newtownards Ards and North Down Borough Council St Mary's Primary School Portaferry Ards and North Down Borough Council Banbridge Nursery School Banbridge Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon BC Birches Primary School Craigavon Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon BC Bocombra Primary School Portadown Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon BC Brookfield School Craigavon Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon BC Carrick Primary School Lurgan Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon BC College Farm Nursery School Armagh Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon BC Dromore Nursery School Dromore Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon BC Hamiltonsbawn Primary School Armagh Armagh City, Banbridge
    [Show full text]
  • Newtownards Walking Guide
    View of Scrabo Newtownards Walking Guide visitstrangfordlough.co.uk Newtownards Map 2 6 1 Old Regent House 1 2 St Mark’s Parish Church 14 3 The Ards Hospital (The Old Workhouse) 3 5 4 A view of Scrabo Tower 5 Regency Gift House, Library (The Queen’s Hall) and Open and Direct Building 4 12 13 11 Strean Presbyterian Church 6 Conway 7 The Market Cross Square 8 Movilla Abbey (Extended Tour Route) 9 The War Memorial and Rose Garden 10 Newtownards Priory 8 11 The Blair Mayne Statue 12 The Ards TT (Tourist Trophy) 7 To Movilla Abbey 13 Ards Arts Centre 14 The Old Brewery/ Visitor Information Centre and Ards Crafts 9 10 Please note that this map is not to scale and is for reference only Newtownards Walking Guide Historical Walking Trail of Newtownards, Co Down This tour begins at the Visitor surface over grass to the Movilla Information Centre on Regent Abbey site. Please be aware when Street located beside the bus crossing the road and keep an station (point 14). eye out for traffic at all times. The tour will last approximately The main route consists of one hour. For your convenience, flat concrete footpaths with there are also public toilets pedestrian crossing opportunities. and a wide range of cafes and If you extend your walk please restaurants in Newtownards. be aware of a gradual incline along footpaths with an uneven We hope you enjoy learning more about the area. Be sure to look out for the other walking guides in the series. These can be downloaded from www.visitstrangfordlough.co.uk along with ideas on what to see and do in the area.
    [Show full text]
  • Download the Mid Ulster Housing Investment Plan 2019-23
    Mid Ulster Housing Investment Plan 2019-23 2 Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................ 4 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 5 Strategic Context .................................................................................................................... 6 Local Context ................................................................................................................... 13 Outcome 1 – Help people find housing support and solutions ......................................... 27 Outcome 2 – Deliver better homes ................................................................................. 29 Outcome 3 – Fostering vibrant sustainable communities ................................................ 32 Outcome 4 – Deliver quality public services .................................................................... 36 Appendix 1 Community Plan themes and outcomes ............................................. 39 Appendix 2 Social Housing Need by Settlement 2018-2023 ................................... 40 Appendix 3 Social Housing Development Programme ........................................... 41 Appendix 4 Maintenance Programme, Grants and Adaptations information ......... 42 Appendix 5 Supporting People Information .......................................................... 44 Appendix 6 NIHE Stock at March 2019 .................................................................
    [Show full text]