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2018-Based Sub-National Population Projections for Northern Ireland - Summary

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2018-based Sub - N ational Population Projections for Northern Ireland - summary The impact of the current coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has not been taken into account in the production of the sub-national population projections. ESTIMATES PROJECTIONS 2.100 By 2043, the population of Northern Ireland is projected to 2.000 reach 1.99 million 1.99 1.900 1.95 million The population of Northern Ireland is million projected to increase by 70,100 people 1.800 1.88 in the first 10 years to mid-2028. Over million the next 25 years the population is 1.700 projected to grow by 107,600 people to reach 1.99 million in mid-2043. Population(millions) 1.600 Non-zero Y axis 1.500 1991 2018 2028 2043 Lisburn & Castlereagh 9.5 The population of Lisburn and Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon 8.1 Castlereagh is projected to grow Mid Ulster 7.0 fastest of the all LGDs in Newry, Mourne & Down 5.4 Northern Ireland between mid- Northern Ireland 3.7 2018 and mid-2028 Antrim & Newtownabbey 2.9 Fermanagh & Omagh 2.5 Based on past trends the population of Ards & North Down 2.5 four LGDs is projected to grow faster Mid & East Antrim 1.9 than the NI level over the next decade. Belfast 1.3 In addition, three LGDs Derry City & Causeway Coast & Glens 0.7 Strabane, Causeway Coast & Glens and Derry City & Strabane -0.2 Belfast are projected to remain relatively stable. -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Population change (%) Percentage change Components of population -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% change by LGD over the decade Lisburn & Castlereagh Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Natural change (births minus deaths) Mid Ulster and net migration are the two Newry, Mourne & Down components which contribute to population change. Lisburn and Northern Ireland Castlereagh LGD is projected to Antrim & Newtownabbey experience the largest population growth Fermanagh & Omagh over the decade (9.5 per cent). The main Ards & North Down Natural Change driver of growth in Lisburn and Mid & East Antrim Castlereagh is projected to be net Belfast Net Migration migration (7.0 per cent), with natural Causeway Coast & Glens Population change making up 2.5 per cent. Derry City & Strabane Change www.nisra.gov.uk Source: 2018-based Sub-National Population Projections Figures may not sum due to rounding 2018-based Sub-National Population Projections for Northern Ireland - summary Proportion of Population Mid-2018 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Proportion of the population Mid-2028 aged 65 and over projected to Ards & North Down 2018 2028 increase across all LGDs Causeway Coast & glens Mid & East Antrim For each of the LGDs the proportion of Fermanagh & Omagh the population aged 65 and over is Lisburn & Castlereagh projected to increase. In mid-2018, only Antrim & Newtownabbey one LGD had a population where at least one in 5 people were aged 65 and over, Newry, Mourne & Down Ards and North Down LGD (21.0 per Derry City & Strabane cent). By mid-2028, this figure is Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon projected to rise to 5 out of eleven LGDs, Mid Ulster ranging from 20.3 per cent in Lisburn Belfast and Castlereagh LGD to 25.2 per cent in Northern Ireland Ards and North Down LGD. Ordered by proportion of population in mid-2028 Local Government District OADR* OADR Old age dependency ratios (2018) (2028) across the LGDs Antrim & Newtownabbey 268 272 Ards & North Down 352 367 Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon 249 250 The old age dependency ratio (OADR) of Belfast 226 223 an area will likely increase as a Causeway Coast & Glens 294 323 consequence of an ageing population. Derry City & Strabane 237 253 The OADR is projected to increase for all Fermanagh & Omagh 275 298 LGDs by mid-2028, with the exception of Lisburn & Castlereagh 279 279 Belfast LGD and Lisburn and Mid & East Antrim 306 317 Castlereagh LGD. The largest increase Mid Ulster 231 240 is projected in Causeway Coast and Newry, Mourne & Down 252 268 Glens LGD where the OADR is projected Northern Ireland 264 273 to rise from 294 dependants per 1,000 to *Old age dependency ratio – number of dependents per 1,000 working age 323 per 1,000. Median Age Mid-2018 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Median age is projected to rise Mid-2028 to over 40.0 years in 8 out of Newry, Mourne & Down 2018 2028 eleven LGDs by mid-2028. Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Derry City & Strabane The median age for Northern Ireland is Mid Ulster projected to be 41.2 years by mid-2028. Causeway Coast & glens The largest increase in median age is Ards & North Down projected in Newry, Mourne and Down Antrim & Newtownabbey LGD (3.7 years). In mid-2018, five LGDs Fermanagh & Omagh had a median age over 40.0 years, Belfast however, by mid-2028 this number is Mid & East Antrim projected to rise to 10 LGDs, ranging Lisburn & Castlereagh from 40.1 years in Mid Ulster LGD to Northern Ireland 46.3 years in Ards and North Down LGD. Ordered by increase in median age www.nisra.gov.ukThe Dependency Ratio is 2026 2016 200 250 300 350 400 Source:projected 2018-based to increaseSub-National Population Projections Figures may not sum due to rounding From mid-2016 to mid-2026 the Ards & North Old Age Dependency Ratio Down .
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