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Main Heading Goes Here Karsan Turkey / equity / automotive Turnaround story begins in 2015 May 21, 2014 Turning into an OEM producer from contract auto manufacturer. Karsan has been MARKET OUTPERFORMER producing commercial vehicles for the world’s leading brands such as Peugeot, Renault (initiated) and Hyundai through its flexible manufacturing facilities. However, it has been suffering KARSN.IS KARSN TI from being a contract manufacturer as the profitability is very low for contract manufacturers. Eventually, Karsan has decided to become an OEM producer, producing Stock Data its own products rather than being a contract manufacturer, and taken some steps (such Current Price (TL) 1.16 as; Hyundai deal, expiry of PSA and Renault agreements, enrichment of product mix 12M Target Price (TL) 1.60 with own brands and establishing a JV with Chinese producer) to improve its profitability Upside potential 38% and balance sheet, which will start paying off in 2015. Current Mcap (TLmn) 534 Hyundai deal to ignite turnaround. Karsan signed an agreement with Hyundai Motor Free Float (FF) 34.35% Company (HMC) for the production of more than 200k light commercial vehicles FF. Mcap (TLmn) 183 between 2014-2021. According to our calculation, Karsan will generate more than TL1bn Foreign Share in FF 3.26% Report priced as of May 20, 2014 revenue from (protected by take-or pay clause) Hyundai vehicle sales in 2015 (2014E top-line: TL537mn), totaling c.TL15.7bn between 2014-2021. Relative Performance to BIST-100 Strong growth in P&L is on the way. Deriving strength from Hyundai project, 1m 3m 6m 12m profitable BredaMenarinibus sales and upcoming new product launches, we expect the 10% 5% 8% 31% company to post substantial growth in P&L as we expect revenues, EBITDA and net Avg. Daily Trading Volume (TLmn) profit to surge at a 3-year CAGR of 32%, 40% and 76%, respectively. 1m 3m 6m 12m Initiating coverage with MARKET OUTPERFORMER rating and target price of 10.5 6.7 9.0 12.2 TL1.60/share, which offers 38% upside potential. Karsan shares have been underperforming both benchmark index and local peers for many years due to losses at the bottom-line level and successive rights issues. However, starting next year, there will be significant improvement in the company’s operational and bottom-line performance, 2.50 0.45 0.40 carrying multiples (9.0x and 6.2x on 2015E and 2016E P/E) at attractive levels. Although 2.00 0.35 the negative effects of transition (i.e. low capacity utilization rate and high financial 0.30 expenses) will inevitably keep earnings under pressure throughout 2014, we believe that 1.50 0.25 investors may tend to overlook the weakness to be seen in figures during this period and 0.20 1.00 focus on the growth potential in 2015. 0.15 0.10 0.50 KARSN (TL) Risks to our valuation includes; i) potential increase in interest rates and possible XU-100 Relative (rhs) 0.05 contraction in commercial vehicle demand, ii) any jump in raw material costs, iii) lower 0.00 0.00 12/10 07/11 02/12 09/12 than expected bus sales, and iv) any delay in Hyundai project. Summary Financials 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenues (TLmn) 913 537 1,702 2,101 EBITDA (TLmn) 64 14 144 175 Net Income (TLmn) 16 -28 59 87 Kurthan Atmaca EBITDA Margin 7.0% 2.7% 8.5% 8.3% Net Margin 1.7% -5.3% 3.5% 4.1% [email protected] Revenue growth 57% -41% 217% 23% +90 212 336 5164 EBITDA growth n.m. -77% 898% 21% Net Income growth n.m. n.m. n.m. 46% P/E 25.3 n.m. 9.0 6.2 EV/EBITDA 13.5 76.8 7.5 5.2 EV/Sales 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.4 Sales Contact: Emir Tayman (+90 212 370 6806) Ayca Gurdal (+90 212 370 6808) [email protected] [email protected] Deniz Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. Buyukdere Cad. No: 106 Kat: 15 34394 Esentepe, Istanbul TURKEY This document has been produced by Deniz Invest Research Department for purposes of information and cannot be construed as investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell any securities that may be mentioned in the body of the document. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. Deniz Invest, its parent or affiliated companies may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform investment advisory services for those companies. You may find our research on Bloomberg page; DENI Karsan: Turnaround story begins in 2015 May 21, 2014 Table of contents Page Investment case 3-4 Model Assumptions and Valuation 5-7 DCF Approach 5 Peer Comparison Approach 6 Sensitivity Analysis 6 Scenario Analysis 7 Sector Outlook 8-9 Turkish Commercial Vehicle Market 8-9 Company in Brief 10-16 Forecasts 17-19 Summary Financials 20 Deniz Invest Page 2 Karsan: Turnaround story begins in 2015 May 21, 2014 Investment Case We initiate our coverage for Karsan (KARSN TI) with a MARKET OUTPERFORMER rating and a target price of TL1.60/share, offering 38% upside potential. Karsan used to be producing vehicles for Renault and PSA during the last five years and, accordingly, has been suffering from being a contract manufacturer as the profitability is very low for contract manufacturers. Consequently, the company recorded significant losses at bottom-line due to low profitability and high financial expenses given the sizeable leverage. Eventually, Karsan has decided to become an OEM producer, producing its own products, rather than being a contract manufacturer. On top of this, an agreement with Hyundai has been signed for the production of new commercial vehicles, which would provide TL15bn revenue - protected by take or pay clause - between 2014-2021. Karsan shares have been underperforming the benchmark index and its local peers (Tofas, Ford Otosan) by 41% and 66%, respectively, throughout the last three years due to loss at bottom-line and successive rights issues. Starting from 2015, the company will post substantial growth in P&L as we expect revenues, EBITDA and net profit to advance at a 3-year CAGR of 32%, 40% and 76%, respectively, pulling multiples (9.0x and 6.2x on 2015E and 2016E P/E) at attractive levels. Although the negative effects of transition (i.e. low capacity utilization rate and high financial expenses) will inevitably keep earnings under pressure throughout 2014, we believe that investors may tend to overlook the weakness to be seen in figures during this period and focus on the growth in 2015. Major risks to our valuation are: i) potential increase in interest rates and decline in consumer confidence, possible contraction in commercial vehicle demand, ii) any jump in raw material costs, iii) lower than expected bus sales, and iv) any delay in Hyundai project. Turning into an OEM producer from contract auto manufacturer. Karsan was established as a commercial vehicle producer in 1966 in Bursa as the only contract auto manufacturer in Turkey. The company has been producing commercial vehicles for the world’s leading brands such as Peugeot, Renault and Hyundai, including its own, through its flexible manufacturing facilities, providing marketing, sales and after-sales services through its widespread network. However, it has been suffering from being a contract manufacturer as the profitability is very low for such type of manufacturers. Eventually, Karsan has decided to become an OEM producer, producing its own products rather than being a contract manufacturer. As a first step, Renault and Peugeot contracts was not renewed as all of them expired by the end of 2013. On top of this, an agreement with Hyundai has been signed, which includes take-or-pay clause, for the production of new commercial vehicles. Moreover, the company has kicked off the sale of its own products (such as; Jest, Karsan Atak, Karsan Star, Concept V1), which have higher profitability compared to Renault and Peugeot production. Turnaround story begins with Hyundai deal in 2015. Hyundai Motor Company (HMC) has aspirations to become the second biggest automotive producer - ranked currently in fourth place - in the world. In order to reach this goal, the company has decided to enrich its product portfolio via new investments. HMC has no presence in 4-6 tons vehicle market in Europe and wants to step in to this market. Accordingly, on November 27th 2012, Karsan signed an agreement with HMC for the production of more than 200k light commercial vehicles (so called Semibonnet project) between 2014-2021. The production is planned to start at the end of 2014. According to our calculation, Karsan will generate more than TL1bn revenue from (protected by take-or pay clause) Hyundai vehicle sales in 2015 (2014E top-line: TL537mn), totaling c.TL15.7bn between 2014-2021. Note that the profitability of HMC vehicle sales will be higher compared to Renault and Peugeot sales. Deniz Invest Page 3 Karsan: Turnaround story begins in 2015 May 21, 2014 BredaMenarinibus sales have significant impact on both top-line and profitability. In 2010, Karsan and Italian bus brand BredaMenarinibus signed an agreement for a cooperation, which has a scope of manufacturing and selling buses ranging from 6.5 meters up to 18 meters. The serial production and sales have started in October 2010. The company sold 573 buses, mostly to municipalities driven by the demand thanks to local elections in March 2014, and generated c.TL350mn revenue in 2013 (40% of 2013 top-line). The price and profitability of bus sales are more than two times higher than other commercial vehicle sales as the company’s EBITDA margin reached highest level since 2005.
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