NCSOFT (036570 KS) Blade & Soul gaining renewed momentum
Game 4Q15 review: In-line results NCSOFT reported 4Q15 revenue and operating profit that were broadly in line with our Results Comment expectations. Revenue expanded 21% QoQ to W236.9bn, with balanced growth across February 12, 2016 existing titles, while operating profit increased 48% QoQ to W74.9bn, backed by strong top-line growth.
Existing titles, including Lineage I, Lineage II , Aion, and Blade & Soul, recorded strong (Maintain) Buy revenue growth QoQ. In particular, revenue from Blade & Soul jumped 30% QoQ to W32.4bn thanks to rollouts of new classes and items, which were positively received. Target Price (12M, W) 400,000 4Q15 net profit, however, fell below our estimate to W42.2bn, hurt by a goodwill impairment charge (W18.4bn) related to Ntreev Soft Share Price (2/11/16, W) 240,000 1Q16 catalysts: Blade & Soul US revenue recognition and China mobile launch Expected Return 67% Blade & Soul US , the company’s first new release in 2016, is doing much better than th initially expected. Launched on January 19 , the title has attracted more than 2mn players and currently has a total of 34 servers, after originally starting with 22. We are OP (15P, Wbn) 237 conservatively modeling quarterly revenue of W10bn for Blade & Soul US (beginning Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 238 1Q16). Since the title is free to play, user metrics are critical in predicting revenue . With EPS Growth (15P, %) -26.9 the title still in its very early stages, we could see changes in user metric trends, which Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 19.9 would prompt revisions to our estimates. P/E (15P, x) 27.8 Lineage Eternal testing is planned for 1H16, while Master X Master (MXM) closed and Market P/E (15F, x) 11.3 open best testing are scheduled for 1H16 and 2H16, respectively. ANP Project , a newly KOSPI 1,861.54 unveiled online game, is also set to go into testing in 1H16. Blade & Soul Mobile is slated Market Cap (Wbn) 5,263 for commercial release in China in 1Q16 and Korea and Japan in 2Q-3Q. Aion Legions ’ Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 soft launch is planned for 4Q16. Mobile titles based on Lineage I are set for testing in Free Float (%) 84.4 1H16 and commercial release in 2H16. The company is also pr eparing to publish two Foreign Ownership (%) 32.6 games developed by outside companies—one of which will be launched domestically in Beta (12M) 0.95 1H16 and the other in Korea and Japan in 3Q16. 52-Week Low 169,000 Maintain Buy and TP of W400,000 52-Week High 244,000 Following the successful launch of Blade & Soul US in January, the mobile version of (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M Blade & Soul China is scheduled to come out in late February or in March. In addition, Absolute 9.1 13.7 14.6 the launches of MXM and four mobiles titles based on Lineage I and Lineage II , as well as Relative 11.0 21.4 19.7 a series of beta tests for Lineage Eternal and AMP Project , are lined up for 2016. Meanwhile, details regarding Netmarble’s release of Lineage II mobile are likely to be 120 NCSOFT KOSPI unveiled during the Netmarble Together with Press (NTP) event on February 18 th . 110
100 We think the market is gradually pricing in expectations for earnings improvements in
90 2017. We look for a strong quarter in 1Q16, driven by new revenue from Blade & Soul US , and believe new title events planned in the coming quarters will provide positive 80 share momentum. We reiterate our Buy rating on NCSOFT with a target price of 70 2.15 6.15 10.15 2.16 W400,000.
Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15P 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 754 757 839 838 950 1,074 [Internet/Game/Entertainment] OP (Wbn) 151 205 278 237 329 395
Chang-kwean Kim OP margin (%) 20.0 27.1 33.1 28.3 34.6 36.8 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 156 159 230 168 266 320 [email protected] EPS (W) 7,120 7,245 10,487 7,669 12,123 14,596 ROE (%) 16.8 14.8 18.4 11.9 17.0 17.9 Jeong-yeob Park +822-768-4124 P/E (x) 21.1 34.3 17.4 27.8 19.8 16.4 [email protected] P/B (x) 3.0 4.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.6 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDAPPENDIXIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
February 12, 2016 NCSOFT
Earnings and forecasts
Table 111.1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q11Q11Q151Q1 555 2Q12Q12Q152Q1 555 3Q13Q13Q153Q1 555 4Q14Q14Q154Q1 555PPPP 1Q11Q11Q16F1Q1 6F6F6F 2Q12Q12Q16F2Q1 6F6F6F 3Q13Q13Q16F3Q1 6F6F6F 4Q14Q14Q164Q1 666FFFF 2012012014201 444 2012012015201 555PPPP 2012012016201 666FFFF Revenue 188 218 196 237 224 225 239 262 839 838 950 Lineage I 66 85 78 83 80 85 77 81 263 313 324 Lineage II 11 16 16 20 19 18 19 22 59 63 78 Aion 18 20 17 19 17 19 18 20 94 74 74 Blade & Soul 27 30 25 32 42 37 38 36 83 114 154 Guild Wars 2 20 22 21 37 23 20 22 20 86 101 85 WildStar 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 50 9 6 MXM 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 21 0 0 35 Royalties 26 21 23 29 27 25 25 29 137 99 106 Other 18 20 15 14 15 19 24 32 67 67 89 Revenue proproproportionpro portion Lineage I 35.1 39.3 40.0 35.1 35.7 38.0 32.4 31.0 31.4 37.3 34.1 Lineage II 5.9 7.5 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.4 7.1 7.5 8.2 Aion 9.7 9.2 8.6 7.8 7.6 8.5 7.5 7.6 11.3 8.8 7.8 Blade & Soul 14.2 13.7 12.7 13.7 18.7 16.4 16.1 13.8 9.9 13.6 16.2 Guild Wars 2 10.6 10.3 10.6 15.8 10.0 9.0 9.3 7.6 10.2 12.0 8.9 WildStar 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 5.9 1.1 0.6 MXM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 8.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 Royalties 13.6 9.6 11.7 12.3 12.0 11.1 10.4 11.1 16.3 11.8 11.2 Other 9.5 9.4 7.6 5.7 6.5 8.3 9.9 12.2 8.0 7.9 9.3 Operating expenses 143 150 145 162 143 152 151 174 561 601 621 Operating profit 45 67 51 75 81 73 88 88 278 237 329 OP margin (%) 23.9 30.8 25.9 31.6 36.1 32.4 36.7 33.6 33.2 28.3 34.7 Net profit 36 58 31 42 67 60 68 68 227 166 263 Net margin (%) 18.9 26.6 15.7 17.8 29.7 26.8 28.5 25.9 27.1 19.8 27.7 YoY growth Revenue 5.6 1.7 -7.5 0.8 19.1 3.4 22.1 10.6 10.8 -0.1 13.3 Lineage I 61.0 50.3 14.2 -14.0 21.3 -0.1 -1.1 -2.3 -8.6 18.9 3.6 Lineage II -5.0 19.9 5.2 3.0 73.0 10.9 22.0 9.5 4.1 5.8 24.1 Aion -17.8 9.5 -49.1 -11.2 -6.4 -5.0 6.7 7.6 -1.4 -21.9 0.5 Blade & Soul 39.2 55.6 26.1 31.9 56.6 24.0 54.2 11.9 20.1 37.7 34.8 Guild Wars 2 -20.3 1.2 5.1 93.7 12.4 -9.7 7.3 -46.5 -30.6 17.4 -15.5 WildStar - -92.6 -89.3 -51.4 -28.0 -24.4 -15.0 -75.2 - -81.7 -38.6 Royalties -42.5 -44.2 3.1 -10.1 5.2 19.0 8.8 -0.5 107.5 -27.9 7.3 Other 23.9 13.1 -16.1 -16.4 -18.0 -8.9 59.6 135.4 15.9 -0.6 33.3 Operating profit 0.8 3.3 -37.8 -14.3 80.2 8.7 73.2 17.4 35.5 -14.6 38.7 Net profit -2.7 9.3 -59.5 -32.2 86.9 4.2 122.5 60.9 43.4 -26.9 58.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Table 222.2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %, %p) Previous Revised % ch% chg.ch g.g.g. 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F 2015P2015P2015P 2016F2016F2016F 2015P2015P2015P 2016F2016F2016F Revenue 837 933 838 950 0.1 1.8 Operating profit 237 321 237 329 0.0 2.5 Net profit 187 269 168 266 -10.2 -1.1 EPS 8,549 12,254 7,669 12,123 -10.3 -1.1 OP margin 28.3 34.4 28.3 34.6 0.0 0.2 Net margin 22.3 28.8 20.0 28.0 -2.3 -0.8 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
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NCSOFT (036570 KS/Buy/TP: W400,000)
Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue 839839839 838838838 950950950 1,0741,0741,074 Current Assets 1,0201,0201,020 1,1491,1491,149 1,4151,4151,415 1,7171,7171,717 Cost of Sales 220220220 219219219 220220220 249249249 Cash and Cash Equivalents 203 332 489 670 Gross Profit 619619619 619619619 730730730 825825825 AR & Other Receivables 90 91 103 116 SG&A Expenses 340340340 382382382 400400400 430430430 Inventories 1 1 1 1 Operating Profit (Adj) 278278278 237237237 329329329 395395395 Other Current Assets 726 725 822 930 Operating Profit 278278278 237237237 329329329 395395395 NonNonNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Assets 679679679 648648648 628628628 613613613 NonNonNon-Non ---OperatingOperating Profit 111111 222 555 232323 Investments in Associates 29 29 33 38 Net Financial Income 17 21 25 31 Property, Plant and Equipment 241 215 192 172 Net Gain from Inv in Associates -2 -1 -1 -1 Intangible Assets 95 89 85 81 Pretax Profit 289 239 334 418 Total Assets 1,6991,6991,699 1,7971,7971,797 2,0422,0422,042 2,3302,3302,330 Income Tax 61 73 71 102 Current Liabilities 245245245 245245245 278278278 314314314 Profit from Continuing Operations 228 166 263 317 AP & Other Payables 25 25 29 33 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 228 166 263 317 Other Current Liabilities 220 220 249 281 Controlling Interests 230 168 266 320 NonNonNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Liabilities 787878 787878 888888 999999 Non-Controlling Interests -2 -2 -3 -3 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 1 1 1 1 Total Comprehensive Profit 224224224 166166166 263263263 317317317 Other Non-Current Liabilities 77 77 87 98 Controlling Interests 228 169 267 322 Total Liabilities 323323323 323323323 366366366 414414414 Non-Controlling Interests -4 -3 -4 -5 Controlling Interests 1,3611,3611,361 1,4601,4601,460 1,6671,6671,667 1,9091,9091,909 EBITDA 315 269 357 419 Capital Stock 11 11 11 11 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 244 198 317 370 Capital Surplus 222 222 222 222 EBITDA Margin (%) 37.5 32.1 37.6 39.0 Retained Earnings 1,234 1,334 1,540 1,783 Operating Profit Margin (%) 33.1 28.3 34.6 36.8 NonNonNon-Non ---ControllingControlling Interests 151515 131313 101010 777 Net Profit Margin (%) 27.4 20.0 28.0 29.8 Stockholders' Equity 1,3761,3761,376 1,4731,4731,473 1,6771,6771,677 1,9161,9161,916
Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Cash Flows from Op Activities 264 198 317 370 P/E (x) 17.4 27.8 19.8 16.4 Net Profit 228 166 263 317 P/CF (x) 11.9 18.8 15.8 12.9 Non-Cash Income and Expense 109 82 71 92 P/B (x) 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.6 Depreciation 30 26 23 20 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 13.6 11.2 8.9 Amortization 6 5 4 4 EPS (W) 10,487 7,669 12,123 14,596 Others 73 51 44 68 CFPS (W) 15,336 11,307 15,211 18,641 Chg in Working Capital -21 -1 27 30 BPS (W) 66,702 71,247 80,635 91,704 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -11 0 -12 -13 DPS (W) 3,430 2,747 3,600 4,600 Chg in Inventories 0 0 0 0 Payout ratio (%) 30.1 36.0 29.4 31.2 Chg in AP & Other Payables 1 0 1 1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.9 Income Tax Paid ---69 -696969 ---73-737373 ---71-717171 ---102-102102102 Revenue Growth (%) 10.8 -0.1 13.4 13.1 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -176 0 -96 -107 EBITDA Growth (%) 30.7 -14.6 32.7 17.4 Chg in PP&E -19 0 0 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 35.6 -14.7 38.8 20.1 Chg in Intangible Assets -2 0 0 0 EPS Growth (%) 44.7 -26.9 58.1 20.4 Chg in Financial Assets -146 0 -96 -107 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 9.8 9.3 9.9 9.9 Others ---9 -999 000 000 000 Inventory Turnover (x) Cash Flows from Fin Activities -12 -68 -60 -77 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 27.7 26.1 24.7 24.6 Chg in Financial Liabilities -8 0 0 0 ROA (%) 14.3 9.5 13.7 14.5 Chg in Equity 1 0 0 0 ROE (%) 18.4 11.9 17.0 17.9 Dividends Paid -12 -68 -60 -77 ROIC (%) 93.7 77.0 146.9 223.0 Others 777 000 000 000 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 23.5 21.9 21.8 21.6 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 79 129 157 181 Current Ratio (%) 415.5 468.5 509.0 546.4 Beginning Balance 123 203 332 489 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Ending Balance 203203203 332332332 489489489 670670670 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
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APPENDIX 1
Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 222-2---YearYear Rating and Target Price History
Company (((Code)(Code)Code)Code) DateDateDate RatingRatingRating Target Price (W) NCSOFT NCSOFT (036570) 02/05/2016 Buy 400,000 500,000 05/13/2015 Buy 270,000 400,000 01/07/2015 Buy 240,000 07/16/2014 Buy 220,000 300,000 05/18/2014 Buy 280,000 200,000 12/31/2013 Buy 310,000 100,000
0 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price ( ─), Target price ( ▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy ( ▲), Trading Buy ( ■), Hold ( ●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Equity Ratings Distribution BuyBuyBuy Trading Buy HoldHoldHold SellSellSell 71.08% 11.76% 17.16% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of December 31, 2015)
Disclosures As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. has been acting as a financial advisor to NCsoft for its treasury share buyback program, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the companies covered in this report.
Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Daewoo Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers This report is published by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such information has not been independently verified and Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. If this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Daewoo. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment
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February 12, 2016 NCSOFT
banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.
Distribution United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All U.S. persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and warrant that they are a major institutional investor and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person. All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
KDB Daewoo Securities International Network
Daewoo Securities Co. Ltd. (Seoul) Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. Head Office Two International Finance Centre 320 Park Avenue 34-3 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu Suites 2005-2012 31st Floor
Seoul 150-716 8 Finance Street, Central New York, NY 10022 Korea Hong Kong, China United States Tel: 82-2-768-3026 Tel: 85-2-2845-6332 Tel: 1-212-407-1000 Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. Daewoo Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Tokyo Branch 41st Floor, Tower 42 Six Battery Road #11-01 7th Floor, Yusen Building 25 Old Broad St. Singapore, 049909 2-3-2 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku London EC2N 1HQ Tokyo 100-0005 United Kingdom Japan Tel: 44-20-7982-8000 Tel: 65-6671-9845 Tel: 81-3- 3211-5511
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