Current Real World Wind Report
Wind Scalability and Performance in the real World: A performance analysis of recently deployed US Wind Farms G. Bothun and B. Bekker, Dept. of Physics, University of Oregon. Abstract Real world performance, costs, and supply chain issues determine the rate at which wind turbines can be constructed, deployed and installed. To study this issue for the case of the US, a sample of ~600 individual US wind farms that have come into operation as of January 2010 has been assembled and analyzed using standard statistical procedures. Results for wind farm turbine composition and overall wind energy installation rates are: a) individual unit turbine capacity ranges from 1-5 to 3 MW, although the bulk of the installations are ≤ 2.0 MW; b) starting in late 2012, turbines of size 2.5 – 3.0 MW are being installed but there are logistical transport problems that come into play on this scale; c) as of July 1, 2014 the Horse Hollow development in Texas has the largest individual wind farm nameplate capacity of 736 MW and 10 other locations have aggregate capacity that exceed 500 MW; d) over the period of 2006—2012, cumulative wind capacity growth was sustained at a rate of 23.7% per annum and by January 1 2013, total installed US wind energy was 60,000 MW; e) if this growth rate could be sustained over a ten year period beginning at the end of 2012, then the US would achieve a total nameplate capacity of ~ 475 GW for wind, which would be approximately 40% of the entire US electrical generating nameplate capacity; f) due to considerable uncertainty over the future of the federal production tax credit (PTC), continued growth in 2013 did not occur and this flattening has now placed US wind energy growth on a significantly more subdued trajectory; g) a small extension of the PTC in 2014 allowed for an additional 4800 MW to come on line bringing the total US installed capacity to 66,000 MW as of January 1, 2015.
[Show full text]