STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY Housing Market Quarterly Bulletin Issue 45 – May 2019 Housing Market Overview The latest data released by the Land registry showed that house prices in the UK rose in February at the slowest rate since September 2012 while in London house prices fell. UK house prices grew by only 0.4% in the year to February 2019. Analysts have warned that house price growth would continue to be subdued in 2019 after a decade of weak wage rises, as well as the risk of a property slump triggered by a possible no-deal Brexit. The latest data from the Land Registry showed that the annual average house price increase in Stockport was 6.8% over the same period, which is significantly higher than the UK average. The number of transactions however has slumped in the first quarter of 2019 to 250 per month from over 400 in the previous quarter. A new graph has been added on page 6, specifically to monitor the sales and prices of homes in the town centre as development gathers pace. The UK's key inflation rate, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable at 1.9% in April 2019, up slightly from 1.8% in January 2019 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The stable inflation rate means that there is no pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates as it grapples with continued uncertainty over Brexit. This will be good news for consumers especially as wages are beginning to increase faster than the rate of inflation and unemployment is at a record low at around 4%. Consultation on the revised draft of the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework (GMSF) formally ended on 18th March 2019 and the responses are currently being analysed. The next phase of the consultation is scheduled to commence in autumn 2019. When adopted, the GMSF will set the overall strategic targets for housing across each of the ten GM districts through until 2037. 743 new homes were built in Stockport in 2018/19 against a target of 550 of which 269 were affordable housing. Notable affordable schemes included: Carrington Fields and Charles Street in Manor Ward, St Thomas’ in Brinnington & Central, Blackstone Fields in Offerton Ward, Bredbury Curve in Bredbury, Mill Lane in Woodley and Lea Road in Heaton Moor. Homes England also confirmed the first new schemes in Stockport to include social rent since circa 2012. These are at Stockholm Road and Booth Street (total 59 social rented units: Edgeley & Cheadle Heath Ward). Stockport Homes Group (SHG) and partner Registered Providers (RPs) are on site or working up to start on site for a further 528 units for completion over the next 2/3 years. Phase 1 of Brinnington regeneration project (Blackberry Vale) is now complete and fully occupied with 98 houses completed for market sale. Phase 2 (Blackberry Point) is now on site with 166 houses being constructed for market sale of which 80 have been sold already and first completions are due imminently. Covent Garden site (75 Units) in the Town Centre is also on site and will complete in Q2 2019-20. The Council was successful in being awarded £303,000 HIF Grant from Homes, England for the Hopes Carr Hempshaw Brook scheme (14 units) in the Town Centre. The Council has been working closely with GMCA and Stockport Homes towards the installation of sprinklers to all 22 high rise residential council buildings in the Borough. Wide ranging consultation with GMFRS, Fire Risk Assessors and Mechanical and Electrical Consultants have been undertaken. A tendering exercise was also completed to appoint a preferred contractor with a revised two-year programme developed to reduce the time and provide cost certainty. As has been reported on these bulletins for the last couple of years, private rent levels have continued to rise and average rents across all property types are over twice that of Council housing rents for comparable properties. This bulletin includes charts showing weekly rents monitor over the last few years showing private weekly rents in comparison to the weekly local Housing Allowance (LHA) by property type. The charts show that rents levels are above the LHA rate for all property types in the private sector. The GMCA announced in February 2019 that a bid from members of the Greater Manchester Housing Policy Group (GMHPG) had been successful for their £8m Housing First contract. Over a three-year period, this will deliver very intensively supported tenancies to people with complex needs at risk of street homelessness, of the kind identified through the GM Mayors ‘A Bed Every Night’ (ABEN) initiative. 1 Housing Market Statistics Sales Volume by Property 1600 Type 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan 18 - Apr 18 - Jul 18 - Oct 18 - Jan 19 - Mar 18 Jun 18 Sep 18 Dec 18 Mar 19 Flats Terraced Semi Detached Source : HM Land Registry April 2019 - NB Sales volume data for the two most recent months are not used by HMLR as comparisons due to the lag in the registration of sold properties Actual average sale prices by postcode sector for the Quarter 1 Jan to Mar 2019 Detached Semi Terraced Flats/maisonette Average No of Average No of Average No of Average No of Price Sales Price Sales Price Sales Price Sales SK1 £0 0 £183,197 15 £133,397 20 £111,475 6 SK2 £311,917 6 £241,737 43 £172,121 21 £100,900 5 SK3 £220,999 7 £197,556 29 £159,703 31 £134,500 5 SK4 £482,000 11 £399,787 40 £259,590 31 £157,308 13 SK5 £249,750 4 £159,058 26 £127,520 22 £88,500 3 SK6 £341,805 30 £245,798 60 £189,039 42 £127,700 12 SK7 £528,196 43 £268,690 41 £230,153 13 £146,545 10 SK8 £431,643 28 £304,268 72 £224,957 23 £183,531 14 Total Sales 129 326 203 68 Source : HM Land Registry May 2019 Key: SK1: Town Centre/Hillgate/Portwood SK2: Davenport/Heaviley/Great Moor/Stepping Hill/Offerton SK3: Shaw Heath/Adswood/Cheadle Heath SK4: Heaton Moor/Heaton Mersey SK5: Heaton Chapel/Reddish/Brinnington SK6: Bredbury/Woodley/Romiley/Marple SK7 : Bramhall/Woodford/Hazel Grove SK8: Gatley/Heald Green/Cheadle Hulme 2 Source: HM Land Registry Apr 2019 Average House Prices (all types) by local area £287,252 £242,964 £223,019 £229,488 £175,433 £147,482 Manchester Tameside Trafford Cheshire East England & Wales STOCKPORT Source: HM Land Registry Apr 2019 3 Mortgage Repossession Statistics 60 40 20 0 Stockport Manchester Tameside NW Region England and -20 Wales Quarterly Percentage -40 of Repossession ordersmade. increase/decrease thein number -60 Number of Repossession Orders made in Stockport 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 Source: HM Ministry of Justice – Quarter 1 (2019) Rented Housing Market Average rent levels as at Apr 2019 Registered Stockport Homes Private Sector Providers (ALMO) (Apr 2019) Flats 1/2 beds 81.70 69.12 145.45 Terraced Houses 93.60 83.09 163.53 Semi-Detached 111.60 95.65 192.57 Detached n/a n/a 279.45 Source: Stockport Housing Partnership/Stockport Homes Ltd / Private Lettings Agencies/Rightmove Website 4 Source: Rightmove website WEEKLY PRIVATE RENT MONITOR (Average Rents) 5 Town Centre Town Centre - Average Price and Sales Volume £155,000 70 £150,000 60 £145,000 50 £140,000 £135,000 40 £130,000 30 £125,000 20 £120,000 £115,000 10 £110,000 0 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Average Price Sales Volume Homelessness Statistics Quarterly Change (Oct 18 – Dec 18) Jan 19 – Mar 19 Number % Homelessness Presentations 505 70 16.1 Homelessness Presentations owed full duty 124 23 22.8 Source: Stockport Homes Apr 2019 6 Empty properties in Stockport as at Key Economic Indicators as at 31st 31st March 2019 March 2019 Current Bank of England Base Rate: 0.75 % All empty properties: 3,422 (3.2% of private housing stock) Current Inflation Rate (CPI): 1.9% (RPI: 2.4%) Government Target Inflation Rate (CPI): Empty for more than 12 months: 2.00 % 1, 165 (1.06% of private housing stock) th 3 Month LIBOR as at 18 January 2019: 0.92% (Source: www.thisismoney.co.uk) Source: Stockport Council Contact Us : Tel: 0161 474 4390 E-mail : [email protected] Housing Strategy Team Place Directorate - Strategic Housing Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Stopford House Piccadilly Stockport SK1 3XE 7 .