Political Trust in Iceland Determinants and Trends, 1983 to 2018

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Political Trust in Iceland Determinants and Trends, 1983 to 2018 Political Trust in Iceland Determinants and trends, 1983 to 2018 Sjöfn Vilhelmsdóttir PhD Thesis February 2020 Supervisor Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson PhD Committee Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson Guðbjörg Andrea Jónsdóttir Peter W. Van Arsdale Political Trust in Iceland: Determinants and trends, 1983 to 2018 Supervisor: Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson PhD Committee: Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson, University of Iceland Guðbjörg Andrea Jónsdóttir, University of Iceland Peter W. Van Arsdale, University of Denver The University of Iceland: Faculty of Political Science ISBN 978-9935-9477-5-8 Reykjavík 2020 © Sjöfn Vilhelmsdóttir Háskólaprent ehf. Abstract Despite the often intense public debate about how Icelanders have lost confidence in their regime institutions following the financial crisis of 2008 and policy recommendations on how to restore political trust, no systematic examination on the sources of political trust in Iceland has been carried out. This doctoral research aims to provide theoretical and empirical answers to the question: “what are the determinants of political trust in Iceland?” This includes mapping the dependent variable (i.e. political trust levels in Iceland) over time and studying its relationship with potential explanatory factors. Five theoretical perspectives from political science literature explaining the origins of public trust in political institutions guide the study: modernisation and value change, civic culture and social capital, policy performance, process performance, and electoral outcomes and partisanship. The study’s empirical section is based on repeated opinion survey data from two European programmes, and this data is used to conduct two types of analyses: a longitudinal descriptive analysis and a multivariate analysis. The longitudinal descriptive analysis identifies trends in the development of political trust levels in Iceland from 1983 to 2018, focusing on public trust in the national parliament (Althingi) in a comparative perspective. The multivariate analysis tests five models on the sources of political trust, evaluating the effects of different determinants of Icelanders’ political trust judgements across three time points: 2004, 2012, and 2016. The financial crisis of 2008—the crash—provides a before and after comparison framework for both the longitudinal descriptive and multivariate analyses. The study’s results show that Icelanders are and have been among the most trusting citizens in Europe, placing Iceland among the high trusting Nordic countries. Following the financial crisis of 2008, political trust levels in Iceland followed the same path as was observed in other countries greatly affected by the crisis. Public trust in the institutions and actors of political representation plummeted, while the crisis had a limited impact on trust in institutions on the implementation side of the system, such as the civil service, justice system, and police. The results demonstrate a strong and stable impact of evaluations of policy performance and process performance on political trust. Overall, satisfaction with the state of the economy proved to be the strongest determinant of Icelanders’ political trust over time. Social trust, demographic characteristics, and social status are all predictors of political trust in Iceland. Partisanship in general remained a stable source of political trust across the study’s three time iii points, while the relative impact of feeling closer to the parties in the coalition government changed significantly following the crash. The post-crisis economic recovery in Iceland has not been sufficient to restore Icelanders’ trust in the parliament Althingi to its pre-crash levels, as the political aftermath of the crisis seems to be having a greater and more prolonged impact on public trust in the key institutions of political representation. iv Ágrip Pólitískt traust á Íslandi: Helstu áhrifaþættir og þróun frá 1983 til 2018 Mikið hefur verið rætt um hvernig Íslendingar misstu traust á stjórnvöldum og opinberum aðilum í kjölfar efnahagshrunsins árið 2008. Umræðan hefur oft verið hvöss og hávær og ríkisstjórnin sem nú situr hefur sett sér markmið um að efla traust almennings á stjórnmálum og stjórnsýslu. Hins vegar hefur minna farið fyrir því að greina á markvissan hátt hverjar eru rætur pólitísks trausts í íslensku samfélagi eða að skoða hvað samanburður við önnur ríki segir okkur um stöðuna hér á landi. Markmið þessarar doktorsrannsóknar er að skoða þróun pólitísks trausts á Íslandi til lengri tíma og greina hvaða áhrifaþættir liggja til grundvallar þegar almenningur treystir stjórnvöldum. Í rannsókninni er sjónum sérstaklega beint að trausti almennings til Alþingis en einnig er rýnt í gögn um traust Íslendinga til opinberra stofnana, dómskerfisins og lögreglunnar. Tímabilið 1983 til 2018 er til skoðunar þar sem þróunin á trausti Íslendinga til stjórnvalda er greind yfir tíma og í alþjóðlegum samanburði. Fræðilegur grunnur rannsóknarinnar byggir á fimm leiðandi kenningarsjónarhornum í stjórnmálafræði um rætur pólitísks trausts. Þau eru: 1) Nútímavæðing og breytt lífsviðhorf (e. modernisation and value change); 2) samborgaraleg siðmenning og félagsauður (e. civic culture and social capital); 3) pólitískur árangur (e. policy performance); 4) vönduð stjórnsýsla og ákvörðunartaka (e. process performance), og; 5) flokkakerfið og samsömun við stjórnmálaflokka (e. partisanship). Leitast er við að meta hvort og þá hversu mikið hver af þessum fimm áhrifaþáttum skýrir þróun pólitísks trausts á Íslandi yfir lengri tíma. Rannsóknin fylgir megindlegri aðferðafræði félagsvísinda og samanstendur af tveimur tölfræði greiningum: Langtíma lýsandi tölfræði sem greinir þróun pólitísks trausts á Íslandi frá 1983 til 2018 og marghliðagreiningu sem metur forspágildi helstu áhrifaþátta pólitísks trausts á Ísland á þremur tímapunktum, 2004, 2012 og 2016. Í báðum greiningum er efnahagshrunið 2008 notað sem tímapunktur til að skoða sérstaklega þróunina á trausti almennings til stjórnvalda fyrir og eftir hrun. Greiningin byggir á gögnum úr tveimur evrópskum spurningakönnunum: Evrópsku lífsgildakönnuninni (e. European Values Study - EVS) sem hefur verið framkvæmd fimm sinnum á Íslandi á tímabilinu 1984 til 2018, og Evrópsku samfélagskönnuninni (e. European Social Survey - ESS) sem var framkvæmd hér á landi árið 2004, 2012 og 2016. Gögn v úr Íslensku kosningarannsókninni, frá 1983 til 2017, eru einnig höfð til hliðsjónar í greiningunni. Niðurstöður rannsóknarinnar sýna að í alþjóðlegum samanburði hefur pólitískt traust á Íslandi verið mikið og að traust Íslendinga á lykilstofnunum stjórnkerfisins var lengst af sambærilegt því sem gerðist á hinum Norðurlöndunum. Mikið pólitískt traust á Norðurlöndunum hefur verið útskýrt með vísun í samfélagsgerð þeirra sem leggur áherslu á jöfnuð og samfélagslega þátttöku, sem og árangur stjórnvalda við að skapa góð lífskjör og byggja upp vandaða stjórnsýslu. Í kjölfar fjármálahrunsins árið 2008 varð þróunin á Íslandi sambærileg þeirri sem gerðist í öðrum Evrópuríkjum sem einnig urðu illa úti í alþjóðlegu efnahagskreppunni sem fylgdi, svo sem á Írlandi, Spáni og í Portúgal. Meðan traustið á pólitískum þáttum stjórnkerfisins hrundi, eins og á Alþingi, stjórnmálaflokkum og stjórnmálamönnum, þá héldu Íslendingar áfram að bera traust til dómskerfisins og traust þeirra til opinberra stofnanna og lögreglunnar jókst. Nánari greining á einstaklingsþáttum sem liggja til grundvallar þegar almenningur treystir stjórnvöldum sýndi að rætur pólitísks trausts á Íslandi liggja víða. Niðurstöðurnar eru í samræmi við það sem kenningar rannsóknarinnar spáðu fyrir um en pólitískur árangur stjórnvalda við að búa þegnum sínum góð lífskjör hefur þó mesta forspágildið þegar þróunin er skoðuð yfir lengri tíma. Þar er upplifun almennings á stöðu efnahagsmála mikilvægasti þátturinn, en mat fólks á stöðu velferðarþjónustu skiptir einnig máli. Rætur pólitísks traust liggja líka í upplifun almennings á stjórnsýslunni og hvernig pólitískri ákvörðunartöku er háttað. Íslendingar eru mun líklegri til að bera traust til stjórnvalda þegar þeim finnst að sanngirni og óhlutdrægni séu höfð að leiðarljósi í málsmeðferð opinberra aðila. Þeir eru líka mun líklegri til að bera traust til stjórnvalda þegar þeim finnst að valdhafarnir hlusti eftir sjónarmiðum almennings við pólitíska ákvörðunartöku. Bakgrunnsþættir eins og kyn, aldur, menntun og tekjur hafa allir forspágildi þegar rætur pólitísks trausts í íslensku samfélagi eru skoðaðar yfir tíma. Þar vekur mikið vægi kynferðis athygli, en íslenskar konur eru mun líklegri til að treysta stjórnvöldum en karlar meðan forspágildi menntunar og tekna er minna. Félagslegt traust er mikilvægt fyrir þróun pólitísks trausts á Íslandi eins og víðar, sem og flokkakerfið og þá sérstaklega samsömun einstaklinga við stjórnmálaflokkanna sem eru í ríkisstjórn hverju sinni (einnig kölluð flokkshollusta í fræðunum). Þegar vægi áhrifaþáttanna var borið saman milli tímapunktanna 2004, 2012 og 2016 var niðurstaðan sú að samsömun við stjórnmálaflokk í ríkisstjórn var eini áhrifaþátturinn sem sýndi marktæka breytingu milli tímapunkta. Samsömun við ríkisstjórnarflokk var eitt mikilvægasta forspágildið fyrir pólitískt traust árið 2004 meðan áhrif þess var vi hverfandi árið 2012. Greiningin á 2016 gögnum sýnir að áhrif samsömunar við ríkisstjórnarflokk á pólitískt traust er aftur að aukast en það hefur samt engan veginn náð sama vægi og það hafði á árunum fyrir hrun. Rannsóknin sýnir að heilt yfir er það mat almennings á stöðu efnahagsmála sem er sá þáttur sem hefur hvað mest áhrif
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