Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

SECTION 3- Risk Assessment Requirement §201.6(c)(2): [The plan shall include] A risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce losses from identified hazards. Local risk assessments must provide sufficient information to enable the jurisdiction to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards.

The risk assessment process identifies and profiles relevant hazards and assesses the exposure of lives, property, and infrastructure to these hazards. The risk assessment process allows communities in Lincoln County to better understand their potential risk from natural hazards and provides a framework for developing and prioritizing mitigation actions to reduce risk from future hazard events.

The risk assessment for Lincoln County and its jurisdictions followed the methodology described in the FEMA publication 386-2, Understanding Your Risks: Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses (2002), which includes a four-step process: Identify Hazards Profile hazard Events Inventory Assets Estimate Losses

This section is further divided into three parts: hazard identification, hazard profiles, and vulnerability assessment: Section 3.1 Hazard Identification identifies the hazards that threaten the entire county and describes why some hazards have been omitted from further consideration. Section 3.2 Hazard Profiles discusses the threat to the planning area and describes previous occurrences of hazard events and the probability of future occurrence. Section 3.3 Vulnerability Assessment assesses the County’s total exposure to natural hazards, considering critical facilities and other community assets at risk, and assessing growth and development trends.

Multi-Jurisdictional Risk Assessment

For this multi-jurisdictional plan, the risk assessment assesses each jurisdiction’s risks where they deviate from the risks facing the entire Lincoln County. Lincoln County is not a large county (537 square miles) and is fairly uniform in terms of climate and topography as well as

Section 3 26 Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

construction characteristics and development trends. Accordingly, overall hazards and vulnerability do not vary greatly across the planning area for most hazards.

3.1 Hazard Identification Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type…of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction.

3.1.1 Methodology

All the hazards from the 2004 plan and the State Plan are included in this 2009 update except that severe winter weather and tornadoes/severe thunderstorms are broken down into four different hazards- hailstorm, severe winter weather, thunderstorm & high winds, and tornadoes. The reason for discussing them separately is that there is significant increase of these hazards in Lincoln County.

Based on the data limitations within the county, through the guidance provided by the State Hazard Mitigation Plan and through the discussions with County Emergency Management Director and the participating jurisdictions, this plan update also addresses in brief the two natural hazards- land subsidence and levee failure. Levee failure is included with floods as it falls within the scope of potential flooding events.

Considering the updated Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2007 and the updated Emergency Operations Plan, there has been a gradual increase in manmade incidents, which can be just as devastating as natural disasters in Lincoln County. Therefore, the following man- made hazards are included as part of the plan update process: nuclear power plants, hazardous materials, transportation, utility interruptions and power failures, and terrorism. The hazard analysis provided for these hazards in this section is based on the 2004 Hazard Mitigation Plan and the County Emergency Operations Plan.

The following natural hazards are not included in this analysis because they do not threaten Missouri: avalanches, coastal erosion, coastal storms, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes.

Section 3 27

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Table 3.1 Summary of Hazard Identification Lists (2004 and 2010 Plan) 2004 Plan Hazard List 2010 Plan Hazard List Dam failure Dam Drought Drought Earthquakes Earthquake Floods Extreme Heat Heat wave Flood/Levee Failure Severe Winter Weather (Snow, Ice and Hailstorm Extreme Cold) Severe winter weather Tornadoes/Severe Thunderstorms Thunderstorm and high winds Wildfires Tornado Wildfire Land Subsidence/ Sinkholes Hazardous materials Terrorism Transportation Utility Interruption & Power failure

Data on past impacts and future probability of these hazards in the Lincoln County planning area was collected from following sources: Missouri Hazard Mitigation Plan (May 2007) Information on past hazard events from the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database (SHELDUS), a component of the University of South Carolina Hazards Research Lab that compiles county-level hazard data for 18 different natural hazard event types. Information on past extreme weather and climate events from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center. Federal Disaster Declarations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) were major sources for earthquake information. The Dam Safety Division of Missouri (DNR) provided major information concerning dams. Other sources included Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Missouri Department of Conservation (MDC), county officials; existing county, regional and state plans; reports on the floods of 1993 and 1995; position papers on transportation issues; and information from local residents (sources are indicated where data is cited).

3.1.2 Disaster Declaration History

Federal and/or state declarations may be granted when the severity and magnitude of an event surpasses the ability of the local government to respond and recover. Disaster assistance is

Section 3 28

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

supplemental and sequential. When the local government’s capacity has been surpassed, a state disaster declaration may be issued, allowing for the provision of state assistance. Should the disaster be so severe that both the local and state governments’ capacities are exceeded; a federal emergency or disaster declaration may be issued allowing for the provision of federal assistance.

The federal government may issue a disaster declaration through FEMA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and/or the Small Business Administration. FEMA also issues emergency declarations, which are more limited in scope and do not include the long-term federal recovery programs of major disaster declarations. Determinations for declaration type are based on scale and type of damages and institutions or industrial sectors affected.

A USDA disaster declaration certifies that the affected county has suffered at least a 30 percent loss in one or more crop or livestock areas and provides affected producers with access to low- interest loans and other programs to help mitigate disaster impacts. In accordance with the Consolidated Farm and Rural Development Act, counties neighboring those receiving disaster declarations are named as contiguous disaster counties and are eligible for the same assistance.

Table 3.2 lists federal disaster declarations received by Lincoln County. Each of the disaster events affected multiple counties; estimated damages reflect total losses to all counties. Table 3.2

Declaration Number Declaration Date Disaster Description Counties included Estimated damage FEMA-1631-DR March 16, 2006 Severe Storms, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cass, Cedar, $24.4 Tornadoes & Flooding Christian, Cooper, Greene, Henry, Hickory, million Iron, Johnson, Lawrence, Lincoln, Mississippi, Monroe, Morgan, New Madrid, Newton, Perry, Pettis, Phelps, Putnam, Randolph, Scott, St. Clair, Ste. Genevieve, Saline Counties, Taney, Vernon, Webster, and Wright Counties FEMA-1676-DR January 14, 2007 Severe Winter Storms Barry, Barton, Callaway, Camden , $35 million and Flooding Christian, Cole, Crawford, Dade, Dallas , Dent, Franklin , Gasconade, Greene, Hickory , Jasper, Laclede, Lawrence , Lincoln , Maries, McDonald, Miller, Montgomery , Newton , Osage, Phelps, Polk, Pulaski, St. Charles , St. Clair, St. Louis , Stone, Warren , Webster, Wright,

Section 3 29

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Declaration Number Declaration Date Disaster Description Counties included Estimated damage and the independent City of St. Louis.

FEMA-1736-DR December 27, Severe Winter Storms Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Audrain, Barton, $28,931,081 2007 Benton, Boone, Buchanan, Caldwell, Callaway, Camden, Cedar, Clinton, Cole, Dade, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison, Hickory, Holt, Jasper, Lincoln, Linn, McDonald, Mercer, Miller, Moniteau, Montgomery, Morgan, Newton, Nodaway, Osage, Pike, Putnam, St. Clair, Schuyler, Scotland, Sullivan, Warren, and Worth Counties. FEMA-1749-DR March 19, 2008 Severe Storms and Audrain, Barry, Barton, Boone, Bollinger, $68,000,000 Flooding Butler, Callaway, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Cedar, Christian, Cole, Cooper, Crawford, Dade, Dallas, Dent, Douglas, Dunklin, Franklin, Gasconade, Greene, Hickory, Howard, Howell, Iron, Jasper, Jefferson, Laclede, Lawrence, Lincoln, Madison, Maries, McDonald, Miller, Mississippi, Montgomery, Moniteau, Morgan, New Madrid, Newton, Oregon, Osage, Ozark, Pemiscot, Perry, Phelps, Pike, Polk, Pulaski, Reynolds, Ripley, St. Charles, St. Clair, St. Francois, St. Louis, Ste. Genevieve, Shannon, Scott, Stoddard, Stone, Taney, Texas, Vernon, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Webster, and Wright Counties and the Independent City of St. Louis. FEMA-1773-DR June 25, 2008 Severe Storms and Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Audrain, Bates, NA Flooding Callaway, Cape Girardeau, Carroll, Chariton, Clark, Christian, Daviess, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison, Howard, Holt, Knox, Lewis, Lincoln, Linn, Macon, Marion, Miller, Mississippi, Monroe, Morgan, Nodaway, Perry, Pettis, Pike, Putnam, Ralls, Ray, Shelby, St. Charles, Stone, Sullivan, Taney, and Vernon Counties for Public Assistance. Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Cape Girardeau, Clark, Holt, Jefferson, Lewis, Lincoln, Livingston,

Section 3 30

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Declaration Number Declaration Date Disaster Description Counties included Estimated damage Marion, Mercer, Mississippi, New Madrid, Nodaway, Pemiscot, Perry, Pike, Platte, Polk, Ralls, Randolph, Saline, Schuyler, Scotland, St. Charles, St. Louis, Ste. Genevieve, Scott, the Independent City of St. Louis, Webster, and Worth Counties. FEMA-1809-DR November 13, Severe Storms, Adair, Audrain, Barry, Bollinger, Butler, 2008 Flooding, and Callaway, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Tornadoes Chariton, Christian, Clark, Crawford, Dent, Douglas, Dunklin, Howard, Howell, Knox, Lewis, Lincoln, Linn, Madison, Maries, Marion, Miller, Mississippi, New Madrid, Oregon, Ozark, Perry, Ralls, Randolph, Ray, Reynolds, Ripley, Schuyler, Scotland, Scott, Shannon, Shelby, St. Genevieve, Stoddard, Stone, Sullivan, Taney, Texas, Wayne, Webster, and Wright Counties. FEMA-3303-DR January 30, 2009 Severe Winter Storms, All 114 Missouri Counties and the NA Independent City of St.Louis

Source: FEMA

Table 3.3 below lists U.S. Department of Agriculture disaster declarations for Lincoln County (2005-2007). Table 3.3

USDA Disaster Severe Below Normal Winter Excessive No. Start Date Drought Tornadoes Storms Temperatures Storms Moisture S2106 01/01/2005 X S2119 01/01/2005 X M1631 03/11/2006 X X M1681 11/30/2006 X S2407 01/01/2006 X S2483 01/01/2006 X M1736 12/06/2007 X N873 01/12/2007 X S2521 04/03/2007 X X S2532 03/30/2007 X X

Source: USDA Farm Service Agency.

Section 3 31

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

3.2 Hazard Profiles Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the…location and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events.

3.2.1 Methodology

Each hazard identified in Section 3.1, Hazard Identification, is profiled individually in this section in alphabetical order for easier reference. The level of information presented in the profiles varies by hazard based on the information available. With each update of this plan, new information will be incorporated to provide for better evaluation and prioritization of the hazards that affect Lincoln County.

The sources used to collect information for these profiles include those mentioned in Section 3.1.1 as well as those cited individually in each hazard section. Detailed profiles for each of the identified hazards include information on the following characteristics of the hazard:

Hazard Description

This section consists of a general description of the hazard and the types of impacts it may have on a community. It also includes a ranking to indicate typical warning times and duration of hazard events. Definitions for these rankings are included in Table 3.4.

Historical Statistics

This section describes the geographic extent or location of the hazard in the planning area and includes the information on historic incidents and their impacts based upon the sources described in Section 3.1 hazard Identification and the information provided by the HMPC. Where available, maps are utilized to indicate the areas of the planning area that are vulnerable to the subject hazard.

Location This details the areas that have been impacted and probable areas likely to be affected for identified hazards. Table 3.5 lists the identified hazards for each participating jurisdiction for Lincoln County.

Probability of Future Occurrence

Section 3 32

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The frequency of past events is used to gauge the likelihood of future occurrences. Where possible, the probability and severity of occurrence was calculated based on historical data. The probability was assigned a rank as defined in Table 3.4.

Magnitude/Severity

The magnitude of the impact of a hazard event (past and perceived) is related directly to the vulnerability of the people, property, and the environment it affects. This is a function of when the event occurs, the location affected the resilience of the community, and the effectiveness of the emergency response and disaster recovery efforts.

Hazard Summary

To maintain a consistent reporting format, prioritization was based on four elements of risk: probability, magnitude/severity, warning time, and duration. Table 3.4 defines the rankings for each element of risk.

Table 3.4 Ratings for each hazard Element/ Level Characteristics Probability The likelihood that the hazard will occur. 4- Highly Likely Event is probable within the calendar year. Event has up to 1 in 1 year chance of occurring (1/1=100%) History of events is greater than 33% likely per year. Event is "Highly Likely" to occur 3- Likely Event is probable within the next three years. Event has up to 1 in 3 years chance of occurring (1/3=33%) History of events is greater than 20% but less than or equal to 33% likely per year Event is "Likely" to occur 2- Occasional Event is probable within the next five years. Event has up to 1 in 5 years chance of occurring (1/5=20%) History of events is greater than 10% but less than or equal to 20% likely per year Event could "Possibly" occur 1-Unlikely Event is possible within the next 10 years Event has up to 1 in 10 years chance of occurring (1/10=10%) History of events is less than or equal to 10% likely per year Event is "Unlikely" but is possible of occurring Magnitude / Severity The deaths, injuries, or damage (property or environmental) that could result from the hazard.

4- Catastrophic Multiple deaths Complete shutdown of facilities for 30 or more days More than 50 percent of property is severely damaged

Section 3 33

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

3- Critical Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks 25–50 percent of property is severely damaged 2- Limited Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than one week 10–25 percent of property is severely damaged 1-Negligible Injuries and/or illnesses are treatable with first aid Minor quality of life lost Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less Less than 10 percent of property is severely damaged Warning Time 4 Minimal (or no) warning 3 6-12 Hours 2 12-24 Hours 1 24 + Hours Duration 4 More than 1 Week 3 Less than 1 Week 2 Less than 1 Day 1 Less than 6 Hours

Section 3 34

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Table 3.5 Hazards Identified for each participating jurisdiction Hazard Lincoln Chain Elsberry Foley Fountain Hawk Moscow Old Silex Troy Truxton Whiteside Winfield Elsberry Silex Troy Winfield County of N’ Lakes Point Mills Monroe School School School School Rocks Dam X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Drought X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Earthquake X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Extreme Heat X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Floods/ Levee X X X X X failure ------X X ------* * * * *

Hailstorms X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Severe winter X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X weather Thunderstorms & High Winds X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Tornadoes X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Wild Fire ------Land Subsidence/Sink X ------holes Hazardous X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Materials Terrorism X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Transportation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Utility interruptions/pow X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X er failure X Jurisdictions susceptible to a specific hazard -- Jurisdictions not susceptible to a specific hazard * jurisdictions susceptible to levee failure

Section 3 35

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Table 3.6 Lincoln County Hazard Profile summary Natural hazards Hazard Probability Magnitude/ Warning Duration Total Prioritization Severity Time score Dam Occassional-2 Limited- 2 4 2 10 High

Drought Likely-3 Critical-3 1 4 11 Low Earthquake Likely-3 Catastrophic-4 4 1 12 High Extreme Heat Likely-3 Critical-3 1 3 10 Low Floods/ Levee failure Likely-3 Critical-3 2 2 10 High Hail Likely-3 Critical-3 4 1 11 Medium Severe winter weather Likely-3 Critical-3 3 1 10 Medium

Thunderstorms & High Likely-3 Critical -3 4 2 12 High winds Tornadoes Likely-3 Critical -3 4 2 12 High Wild Fire Occassional-2 Limited- 2 1 2 7 Low Land Occassional-2 Limited-2 3 1 8 Low Subsidence/Sinkholes Man made hazards Hazard Probability Magnitude/ Warning Duration Total Prioritization Severity Time score Hazardous Materials Likely-3 Limited-2 4 2 11 High Terrorism Unlikely-1 Limited-2 4 3 10 Medium Transportation Likely-3 Critical-3 4 1 11 Medium Utility Interruption & Likely-3 Limited-2 4 3 12 Medium Power failure Note: a) Measures for Probability and Magnitude were determined using the Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan 2004- hazard work sheets, Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan, and other relevant sources. b) Hazard prioritization exercise was accomplished during the kickoff meeting. The rankings in this table were based on the committee’s own experience, their own needs, and capabilities. This prioritization exercise was used as a basis for further analysis by the individual jurisdictions for prioritizing the goals and action plans. c) The total score of all the elements of risk - probability, magnitude/severity, warning time and duration were considered for prioritizing the hazards. A total score of 10, 11 and 12 received medium and high priority and scores of 7 and 8 received a low priority. d) However, lows were ranked differently from the total scores depending on the type of hazard. Drought has a total score of 11 but it received a low priority due to few major noted occurrences in the jurisdictions and it is not anticipated to damage structures. Extreme heat was ranked as a low since it is not expected to have an impact on the buildings.

Section 3 36

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

3.2.2 Dam

Hazard Description

A dam is defined by the National Dam Safety Act as an artificial barrier that impounds or diverts water and (1) is at least 6 feet high and stores at least 50 acre-feet of water, or (2) is at least 25 feet high and stores at least 15 acre-feet. Of the 80,000-plus dams in the United States, less than 5% are under the control of the federal government. Missouri’s DNR regulates the design, construction and maintenance of 4,100 non-federal, non- agricultural dams that are at least 35 feet high. Dam owners have primary responsibility for the safe design, operation and maintenance of their dams. They are responsible for providing early warning of problems at the dam, for developing an effective emergency action plan, and for coordinating that plan with local officials. The state has ultimate responsibility for public safety and many states regulate construction, modification, maintenance, and operation of dams. DNR’s Dam Safety Division maintains a database of all dams regardless of federal, state, local or private ownership.

The failure of dams or levees can result in injuries, loss of life, and damage to property and the environment. While levees are built solely for flood protection, dams often serve multiple purposes, one of which may be flood control. Severe flooding and other storms can increase the potential that dams and levees will be damaged and fail as a result of the physical force of the flood waters or overtopping.

Dams and levees are usually engineered to withstand a flood with a computed risk of occurrence. If a larger flood occurs, then that structure will likely be overtopped. If during the overtopping, the dam fails or is washed out, the water behind is released as a flash flood. Failed dams can create floods that are catastrophic to life and property, in part because of the tremendous energy of the released water. The problem of unsafe dams in Missouri was underscored by dam failures at Lawrenceton in 1968, Washington County in 1975, Fredericktown in 1977, and a near failure in Franklin County in 1978.

Oversight is extremely valuable to the owners as well as those people living downstream of the dam who could be flooded in the event the dam should fail. Dams can fail for many reasons. The most common are:

Section 3 37

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Piping: Internal erosion caused by embankment leakage, foundation leakage and deterioration of pertinent structures appended to the dam. Erosion: Inadequate spillway capacity causing overtopping of the dam, flow erosion, and inadequate slope protection. Structure Failure: Caused by an earthquake, slope instability or faulty construction.

These failure types often are interrelated. For example, erosion, either on the surface or internal, may weaken the dam or lead to structural failure. Additionally, a structural failure may shorten the seepage path and lead to a piping failure.

Missouri DNR has defined three levels of hazard potential – high, significant, and low -- as accepted by the Interagency Committee on Dam Safety. The definitions are: High: Failure or mis-operation will probably cause loss of human life. Significant: Failure or mis-operation results in no probable loss of human life but can cause economic loss, environmental damage, disruption of lifeline facilities, or impact other concerns. Significant hazard potential classification dams are often located in predominantly rural or agricultural areas but could be located in areas with population and significant infrastructure. Low: Failure results in no probable loss of human life and low economic and/or environmental losses. Losses are principally limited to the owner’s property. Warning Time: Level 4 ─ Minimal (or no) warning Duration: Level 2─ Less than 1 day

Historical Statistics According to Missouri DNR’s Dam Safety Division in Rolla, Lincoln County has 67 dams. Not counting the Winfield Lock and Dam #25 on the Mississippi River, all Lincoln County dams are earthen construction. The mean earthen dam is 28 feet with a maximum storage capacity of 182 acre-feet. (An acre-foot is one acre of water that is one foot deep. For example, a 10-acre lake that is 10 feet deep would have a maximum storage capacity of 100 acre-feet.) Most are less than 35 feet high and therefore not regulated by Missouri DNR. Therefore, people living downstream of these smaller unregulated dams are at the mercy of the dam owner’s construction and maintenance practices.

Section 3 38

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Out of 68 dams, 7 pose high hazard, 23 significant hazard, and the remaining 38 low hazard. Only three are regulated by the state. Of the seven, only one has an emergency action plan in place. Lake Lincoln Dam, a recreational dam six miles from Moscow Mills, is capable of holding the largest body of water: 2,083 acre-feet. Below is a summary table of these high-hazard dams.

Table 3.7 Lincoln County High-Hazard Dams Distance Maximum Name Nearest City from City Purpose Ht. Storage Plan Lost Creek Elsberry 5 flood management 36 669 no Gentry Lake Dam Elsberry 5 recreation 31 133 no Lake Lincoln Dam Moscow Mills 6 recreation 69 2083 no Lakeview Dam Elsberry 3 flood/recreation 28 150 no Trojan Lake Dam Troy 1 recreation 20 255 no Westhoff Dam Winfield 0 flood management 25 40 no White Lake Dam Whiteside 0 recreation 40 210 yes Source: DNR Dam Safety Program

Location The inundation maps are not currently available for Missouri’s high hazard dams; a project is underway throughout Missouri to map high hazard dams. Further information on this study of dam failure and resulting inundation areas is available from DNR’s Division of Dam Safety (DS). When these maps are completed, a more accurate analysis of Dam Failure and its effects on the jurisdictions represented in the plan will be possible. There were no records of dam failure in the county. The major issue with dam failure is that the traffic flows would be impeded by the major highway cutoffs. Considering this impact, the HMPC ranked this hazard as a ―high‖ priority. The map below shows the DNR’s high and significant hazard dams and population density along with the floodplain and roads.

Section 3 39

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Map 3.1 Lincoln County dams

!( !( Ü !( !( Whiteside !( 8101 !( Elsberry !( (! !( !( !( !( 61 ¤£ !( !( Silex !( !(

!( !( !( !(

Foley

Cave !(

61 Truxton ¤£ !( Winfield !( !( Dam Hazard Ranking Troy Hawk Point !( Fountain N' Lakes High !( !( (! Significant Population Density Moscow Mills 1 Dot = 20 Old Monroe POP00 !(!( County Boundry Chain of Rocks Lincoln County flood boundary Railway line Roads !( Incorporated Areas Miles 0 1.25 2.5 5 7.5 10

Probability of Future Occurrence No records were found to indicate any dam failures in Lincoln County. The probability of occurrence of dam failure is ―occasional‖. Occasional- Event is probable within the next five years.

Magnitude/Severity The magnitude/severity is ―Limited‖

Limited- 10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability.

Section 3 40

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

3.2.3 Drought

Hazard Description

The National Weather Service defines drought as ―a deficiency in precipitation over an extended period, usually a season or more, resulting in a water shortage causing adverse impacts on vegetation, animals, and/or people. The Missouri Drought Response Plan distinguishes between five categories of drought, as follows: Agricultural drought, defined by soil moisture deficiencies; Hydrological drought, defined by declining surface water and groundwater supplies; Meteorological drought, defined by precipitation deficiencies; Hydrological drought and land use, defined as a meteorological drought on one area that has hydrological impacts in another area, i.e. a drought in the Rocky Mountains may be significant in Missouri because the Missouri River is in part dependent upon upstream precipitation and snow pack; and Socioeconomic drought, defined as drought impacting supply and demand of some economic commodity.

Figure below shows the Palmer Drought Index published jointly by NOAA and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Figure 3.1

Source: National Climatic Data Center.

Section 3 41

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The most commonly used indicator of drought and drought severity is the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) published jointly by NOAA and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The PDSI measures the departure of water supply (in terms of precipitation and stored soil moisture) from demand (the amount of water required to recharge soil and keep rivers, lakes and reservoirs at normal levels). The result is a scale from +4 to -4, ranging from an extremely moist spell to extreme drought. By relating the PDSI number to a regional index, one can compile data that reflects long-term wet or dry tendencies.

Regional indicators such as the PDSI are limited in that they respond slowly to deteriorating conditions. On the other hand, observing surface conditions and groundwater measurements may provide only a snapshot of a very small area. Therefore, the use of a variety of drought indicators is essential for effective assessment of drought conditions, with the PSDI being the primary drought severity indicator. Warning Time: Level 1- 24+ hours Duration: Level 4- More than 1 Week

Historical Statistics

Drought in Lincoln County is primarily a problem of rural water supply, especially those supplied by small water structures. When good water becomes a scarce commodity and people must compete for the available supply, the importance of drought severity and duration increases dramatically. According to the Climate Prediction Center, average annual precipitation for the St. Louis regional area is 39 inches and the state rates Lincoln County for high to moderate drought susceptibility. Precipitation-related impacts on time scales ranging from a few days to a few months can include effects on wildfire danger, non-irrigated agriculture, topsoil moisture, range and pasture conditions, and unregulated stream flows. Lack of precipitation over a period of several months or years adversely effects reservoir stores, irrigated agriculture, groundwater levels, and well water depth. Groundwater resources in the county may be adequate to meet domestic and municipal water needs, but due to required well depths, irrigation wells are very expensive. Lincoln County lies in an area of lime stones and sandstones that generally yields 1-15 gallons per minute up to 400 feet deep. Below that depth, the water is mineralized. The DNR’s drought response system has four phases. Phase 1 begins when water monitoring analysis indicates anticipated drought consequences. The situation moves into Phase 2 when

Section 3 42

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

the PDSI reads -10 to -20. At the same time, stream flow, reservoir levels and groundwater levels are below normal over a period of several months. Phase 3 is based on a PDSI between -2 to -4 and various other factors. Phase 4, or activation of drought emergency procedures, generally begins when the PSDI exceeds -4. The DNR has rated drought susceptibility for the entire state and Lincoln County is at moderate risk of drought. Table below shows the existing water systems in Lincoln County.

Table 3.8 Water System Name Type Status Source Water Type Autumn Hills MHP C A GW Bennington Estates C A GW Brook Hill Subdivision C A GW Camp Tuckaho NC A GW Castles Grocery and Cafe NC A GW Crest View Mobile Court C A GW Cuivre River State Park NC A GW Camp Derricotte Cuivre River State Park NC A GW Camp Sherwood Cuivre River State Park NC A GW Picnic Shelter El Shaddai Ranch NC A GW Elsberry C A GW Elsberry Health Care C A GW Center Emerald Green Estates C A GW Fawn lakes C A GW Glen Meadows C C GW Hawk Point C A GW Hometown Court C A GW JR Diamonds NC A GW Lake Forest Subdivision C A GW Lakeview Subd Water C A GW System Lincoln CO PWSD #1 C A GW Lincoln CO PWSD #2 C A GWP Lincoln County Hideout NC A GW Lindemann MHP C A GW Majestic Lakes C A GW Moscow Mills C A GW North Troy Business Park NTNC A GW Operating Engineers NC A GW Training School Quail Run MHP C A GW Rockport Subdivision C A GW Silex C A GW Silex Nursing Center C A GW Southfield Subdivision C A GW

Section 3 43

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Water System Name Type Status Source Water Type St. Alphonsus School NTNC A GW Tara Valley Water Assn C A GW Timber Ridge Estates C A GW Troy C A GW Westmier subdivision C A GW Winfield C A GWP Cedar Ridge Estates C I GW Charwood Estates C I GW Chubbys Restaurant NC I GW Family Child Care Center NTNC I GW Immaculate Conception NTNC I GW School Knights of Columbus, NC I GW Troy Lincoln County Egg Farm NTNC I GW Lock & Dam #25 NTNC I GW Silex Assembly of God NTNC I GW Skyway farm NC I GW Snow Hill Meadows C I GW Sun Valley Golf Course NC I GW VFW Post #8828 NC I GW Deer Valley Subdivision C P GW C- Community: Serves at least 15 service connections used by year-round residents or regularly serves 25-year round residents NTNC- Non Transient Non-Community: Serves at least the same 25 non-residential individuals during 6 months of the year NC- Transient Non-Community: Regularly serves at least 25 non-residential individuals (transient) during 60 or more days per year. A: Active I: Inactive Location While, no records were found to indicate any droughts in Lincoln County, no parts of the county are exempt from this hazard. The hazard might affect countywide.

Probability of Future Occurrence

Overall, it is possible for Lincoln County to experience drought in any given year. The probability of future occurrence of a drought is ―likely‖. Likely- Event is probable within the next three years.

Magnitude/Severity

Drought impacts are wide-reaching and may be economic, environmental, and/or societal. Drought conditions can also cause soil to compact and not absorb water well, potentially making an area more susceptible to flooding. An ongoing drought may also leave an area more prone to

Section 3 44

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

wildfires. Water supply can also be of concern during periods of prolonged drought. The magnitude/severity of drought is ―critical‖. Critical ─ 25–50 percent of property is severely damaged; Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability; Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks.

3.2.4 Earthquake

Hazard Description

According to SEMA, earthquakes can be defined as shifts in the Earth’s crust causing the surface to become unstable. This instability can manifest itself in intensity from slight tremors to large shocks. The Earth’s crust is made up of gigantic plates, commonly referred to as tectonic plates. These plates form what is known as lithosphere and vary in thickness from 6.5 miles (beneath oceans) to 40 miles (beneath mountain ranges) with an average thickness of 20 miles. These plates ―float‖ over a partly melted layer of crust called the athenosphere. The plates are in motion and where one plate joins another, they form boundaries. Pressures on the North Atlantic ridge affecting the eastern side of the North American plate and movements along the San Andreas Fault by the Pacific plate have reactivated the subterranean faults in the Mississippi embayment.

Warning Time: Level 4- Minimal (or no) warning Duration: Level 1- Less than 6 Hours.

Historical Statistics Three earthquake zones -- the New Madrid Fault, the Wabash Valley Fault and the Illinois Basin -- could affect Lincoln County because of their close proximity. Of these three, the New Madrid poses the greatest threat. During the winter of 1811-1812 three earthquakes estimated to have been magnitude 7.5 or greater were centered in the New Madrid fault in southeast Missouri. Thousands of aftershocks continued for years.

Significant earthquakes, each about magnitude 6, occurred in 1843 near Marked Tree, Arkansas, and on October 31, 1895 near Charleston, Missouri. In November 1968 a magnitude 5.5 earthquake centered in southeastern Illinois caused moderate damage to chimneys and walls at Hermann, St. Charles, St. Louis, and Sikeston, Missouri. The felt areas include all or portions of 23 states. Other earthquakes have occurred throughout southeastern parts of

Section 3 45

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Missouri. Smaller, but still destructive, earthquakes are even more likely, according to the Missouri Seismic Safety Commission.

Location While, no records were found to indicate any earthquake events in Lincoln County, no parts of the county are exempt from this hazard. The hazard might affect county wide.

Probability of Future Occurrence The magnitudes of the 24 recent earthquakes in the New Madrid fault ranged from 1.1 to 2.4. None of these quakes impacted Lincoln County in any way. However, the scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis (CERI) recently updated their forecast. The estimated probability of a magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquake is 25-40% through the year 2053. The more severe threat stems from an earthquake producing Modified Mercalli impact levels of VII-XIII. According to SEMA, a major earthquake affecting Lincoln County definitely is expected.

Likely- Event is probable within the next three years.

Magnitude/Severity

The amount of energy released during an earthquake is most commonly expressed on the moment magnitude scale and is measured directly from energy released from the fault or epicenter as recorded on seismographs. Another measure of earthquake magnitude is intensity.

Intensity is an expression of the amount of shaking at any given location on the surface as felt by humans and defined by the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale. It is typically the greatest cause of losses to structures during earthquakes and is determined by many factors including distance from epicenter and soil types.

The magnitudes of the 24 recent earthquakes in the New Madrid fault ranged from 1.1 to 2.4. None of these quakes impacted Lincoln County in any way. However, the scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis (CERI) recently updated their forecast.

The following is an abbreviated description of the 12 levels of Modified Mercalli intensity. I. Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable conditions. II. Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of buildings.

Section 3 46

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

III. Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing vehicles may rock slightly. Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck. Duration estimated. IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing vehicles rocked noticeably. V. Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken. Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop. VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight. VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned. IX. Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well-designed frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations. X. Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundations. Rails bent. XI. Few, if any (masonry) structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. Rails bent greatly. XII. Damage total. Lines of sight and level are distorted. Objects thrown into the air. Abridged from The Severity of an Earthquake, a U. S. Geological Survey General Interest Publication.

Figure below shows the projected earthquake intensities map for the State of Missouri. According to Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, Lincoln County is at risk for a Level VI impact on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale from a 6.7 earthquake, Level VII from a 7.6 earthquake and Level VIII from a 8.6 earthquake.

Section 3 47

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Figure 3.2 Projected Earthquake intensities map

The magnitude/severity of an earthquake in Lincoln County is ―catastrophic‖.

Catastrophic─ Multiple deaths; complete shutdown of facilities for 30 or more days; more than 50 percent of property is severely damaged.

Section 3 48

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

3.2.5 Extreme Heat Hazard Description According to information provided by FEMA, extreme heat is defined as temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks. Ambient air temperature is one component of heat conditions, with relative humidity being the other. The relationship of these factors creates what is known as the apparent temperature.

In addition, the NWS recently has devised a method to warn of advancing heat waves up to seven days in advance. The new Mean Heat Index is a measure of how hot the temperatures actually feel to a person over the course of a full 24 hours. It differs from the traditional Heat Index in that it is an average of the Heat Index from the hottest and coldest times of each day. Figure below shows the NWS Heat index scale. To find the Heat Index from the table, see the relative humidity along the left side of the table and the air temperature along the top. Where the two intersect is the Heat Index for any given time of day. Figure 3.3

Source: NOAA’s National Weather Service Heat Index, January 2009. From 1995-2006, there were 230 fatalities in the U.S. are attributed to summer heat. According to the National Weather Service, among natural hazards, no other natural disaster—not lightning, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or earthquakes—takes a greater toll. The levels of severity, by Heat Index apparent temperature are shown in the table below.

Section 3 49

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Table 3.9 - Levels of Severity by Heat Index apparent temperature Category Heat Index Health Hazards Extreme Danger 130°F - Higher Heat Stroke/ Sunstroke is likely with continued exposure. Danger 105°F - 129°F Sunstroke, muscle cramps, and/or heat exhaustion possible with prolonged exposure and /or physical activity. Extreme Caution 90°F - 105°F Sunstroke, muscle cramps, and/or heat exhaustion possible with prolonged exposure and /or physical activity.

Caution 80°F - 90°F Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. Source: National Weather Service Heat Index Program

The National Weather Service has a system in place to initiate alert procedures (advisories or warnings) when the Heat Index is expected to have a significant impact on public safety. The expected severity of the heat determines whether advisories or warnings are issued. A common guideline for issuing excessive heat alerts is when the maximum daytime Heat Index is expected to equal or exceed 105 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) and the night time minimum Heat Index is 80°F or above for two or more consecutive days. Warning Time: Level 1- 24+ Hours Duration: Level 3- Less than 1 week

Historical Statistics Of the 24 heat waves to hit St. Louis region between 1994 and 2007, 17 produced heat indices within the ―Danger‖ range. The most intense heat waves occurred across the region in July 1995, July 1999, and July 2005. These heat waves resulted in the following impacts: 91 deaths; 1859 injuries; and Property damage valued at $90,000.

Table 3.10 List of Heat Waves across the Region (2004-2009) Property Date Heat Index Deaths Injuries Damage 06/12/1994 100+ 4 55 0 07/17/1995 120 20 225 $75,000 07/28/1995 N/A 0 120 $15,000 08/01/1995 110-120 9 230 0 07/18/1998 110 0 137 0 07/18/1999 105-115 42 397 0 07/07/2001 105-110 5 61 0

Section 3 50

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Property Date Heat Index Deaths Injuries Damage 07/17/2001 110-115 0 19 0 07/29/2001 105-110 0 4 0 08/01/2001 105 0 34 0 08/07/2001 102-110 1 10 0 08/21/2001 105-110 0 14 0 07/08/2002 105-110 1 26 0 07/20/2002 105-115 0 47 0 07/26/2002 105-115 0 185 0 08/01/2002 N/A 1 59 0 08/15/2003 100-105 2 54 0 08/24/2003 105-110 0 0 0 07/20/2004 105-110 0 25 0 07/20/2005 105-120 4 65 0 07/17/2006 105-110 0 12 0 07/29/2006 105-110 0 0 0 08/01/2006 100 0 59 0 08/05/2007 100-105 0 0 Totals 91 1859 $90,000 Source: National Climatic Data Center. Location Based on the statistics, extreme heat frequently strikes Lincoln County during its seasonal pattern. No parts of the county are exempt from this hazard.

Probability of Future Occurrence Although periods of extreme heat generally occur on an annual basis, events that cause significant health impacts occur less frequently. Based on patterns of previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence is considered ―likely‖. Likely- Event is probable within the next three years.

Magnitude/Severity The magnitude/severity of extreme heat for Lincoln County is considered as being ―critical‖. Critical ─ 25–50 percent of property is severely damaged; Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability; Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks.

Section 3 51

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

3.2.6 Flood/Levee failure Hazard Description

A flood is a partial or complete inundation of normally dry land areas. Riverine flooding is defined as the overflow of rivers, streams, drains, and lakes due to excessive rainfall, rapid snowmelt or ice. There are several types of riverine floods including headwater, backwater, interior drainage, and flash flooding.

Flash flooding is characterized by rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source. This type of flooding can occur within six hours of a rain event, after a dam or levee failure, or following a sudden release of water held by an ice or debris jam. Flash floods can catch people unprepared. Because flash floods can develop in just a matter of hours, most flood-related deaths result from this type of flooding event.

Several factors contribute to flooding. Two key elements are rainfall intensity and duration. Intensity is the rate of rainfall and duration is how long the rain lasts. Topography, soil conditions, and ground cover also play important roles. Most flash flooding is caused by slow- moving thunderstorms or heavy rains. Floods, on the other hand, can be fast-rising, but generally develop over a period of hours or days.

Urbanization further aggravates the flooding potential by increasing runoff two to six times over what would occur on natural terrain. As land is converted from fields or woodlands to buildings and pavement, it loses its ability to efficiently absorb rainfall. During periods of urban flooding, streets can become swift moving rivers, while basements and viaducts can become death traps as they fill with water.

The areas adjacent to rivers and stream banks that serve to carry excess floodwater during rapid runoff are called floodplains. A floodplain is defined as the lowlands and relatively flat areas adjoining rivers and streams. The term ―base flood,‖ or 100-year flood, is the area in the floodplain that is subject to a one percent or greater chance of flooding in any given year, based upon historical records. Warning Time: Level 2- 12-24 Hours Duration: Level 2- Less than a Day

Section 3 52

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Historical Statistics 1993 floods The largest disaster to impact Lincoln County in recent years was the flood of 1993. Flooding covered the eastern part of the county along its 25-mile border with the Mississippi. Two major Mississippi levees were breached by the relentless volumes of water. In addition, heavy and frequent rain events along the Cuivre River and the North Fork of the Cuivre River caused flash flooding on the western side of the county. During the 1994 flood, the Cuivre River also flooded farmland and parts of Old Monroe. East of Troy, where flood stage is 21 feet, the river crested at 33 feet. At Old Monroe, with flood stage at 24 feet, the crest reached 32.9 feet. Within the past nine years, flood events have not resulted in any deaths or injuries. Lincoln County became eligible for Individual Assistance after the spring 1993, spring 1994, and spring 1995 floods. After the summer 1993 flood, the county was eligible for both Individual and Public Assistance.

2008 floods The mighty Mississippi overflowed 90 percent of the levees in eastern Lincoln County, rushing into Foley, and other towns around the county in June, 2008. The Army Corp of Engineers estimated that the river would have reached 39.2 feet, which is 13 to 14 feet above flood stage for many communities in Lincoln County. The average water level in Lincoln County was 34.3 feet, which is about eight feet above flood stage. In total, about 300 to 350 homes were flooded in the county. Most residents east of Highway 79 in Lincoln County had left their homes. These floods destroyed four homes and caused major damage to 161 others. Countywide per capita impact for Lincoln County was $4.84.The Missouri Department of Transportation reported 37 road closures in eastern Missouri. Railroad lines were also affected, and river locks and barges were shut down.

Table 3.10 shows the flood events in Lincoln County (2004-2009) Table 3.10 Property Crop Date Type Deaths Injuries damage damage 8/27/2007 Flood 0 0 0 0 6/4/2008 Flood 0 0 1.6M 0 6/18/2008 Flash Flood 0 0 75K 0 6/19/2008 Flash Flood 0 0 500K 0 6/27/2008 Flash Flood 0 0 500K 0

Section 3 53

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Property Crop Date Type Deaths Injuries damage damage 7/16/2008 Flood 0 0 0 0 7/27/2008 Flash Flood 0 0 0 0 TOTALS 0 0 8.176 M 5.050M Source: National Climatic data Center.

The map below shows the impact of 2008 floods for the county.

Map 3.2 shows the impact of 2008 flood on Lincoln County

Source: Disaster Relief Operation Maps and Graphics, Imagery Derived Assessment as of 06/25/2008, Lincoln County, Missouri

Section 3 54

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Table 3.11 Historical Statistics of Flash Floods in Lincoln County (2000-2009)

Date Time Description 24 June 2000 01:30AM Rainfall up to 6 inches caused widespread flash flooding across the area. Big Creek and the Cuivre River flooded.

07 May 2002 01:30 AM At least 17 Lincoln County roads and streets were closed because of high water, and getting to and from some towns was becoming difficult. 12 May 2002 05:00 AM Rainfall of 2-4 inches caused flash flooding across the area. Hwy 79 between Winfield and Old Monroe was closed due to flooding. 10 May 2003 10:25 AM Heavy rain caused flash flooding across south Lincoln County. 25 June 2003 07:45 PM Heavy rain caused flash flooding mainly across eastern Lincoln County,

27 August 2007 05:00 PM Heavy rain upstream caused minor flooding on the Mississippi River. At Winfield, the river peaked about 1 foot over flood stage and was still in flood when the mouth ended. 18 June 2008 09:23 PM A 150 foot section of the Cap Au Gris levee failed about a quarter of a mile south of the Winfield Lock and Dam on the Mississippi River. 19 June 2008 12:44 PM A levee break was reported near Hwy M, southeast of Elsberry. It flooded areas east of Highway 79 to the Mississippi River in the Kings Lake and southern Elsberry Levee districts. The flood waters moved into Foley, flooding a couple dozen homes. Another levee broke further north a couple of hours later affecting the areas to the north of the original levee break. 27 June 2008 04:50 AM The Pin Oak Levee near the Mississippi River failed causing flood waters to rush towards the town of Winfield. At least 60 homes were flooded in Winfield west of Highway 79. 16 Jul 2008 03:00 AM The Mississippi River crested at Winfield, MO on July 1 at 36.14 feet. It fell below flood stage on July 16. 27 Jul 2008 10:10 PM Up to three inches of rain fell in a short amount of time on already saturated soils causing flash flooding. Several roads in Troy had over a foot of water on them. 10 Jun 2009 09:10 PM Up to two inches of rain fell in a short amount of time causing flash flooding. Three feet of water was over Highway C west of Old Monroe. A water rescue had to be performed when a car drove into the flood waters and was washed into a ditch. No injuries were reported. Source: National Climatic data Center.

Location

The flash flooding for Lincoln County is mostly confined to the 100-year floodplain and no data suggests that it occurs outside the 100-year floodplain. An action plan to strengthen regulations in order reduce stormwater runoff existed in the 2004 plan and still remain effective in this update (Goal #2, Action Plan 2.1.1).

Section 3 55

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) was used to generate a one percent annual flood, or 100-year flood, event for major rivers and creeks in the County. The software produces a flood polygon and flood depth grid that represents the 100-year flood. While not as accurate as official flood maps these floodplain boundaries are for use in GIS-based loss estimation. Maps 3.4 to 3.16 provided by SEMA, represents the 100-year flood plain along with critical facilities within the county and cities. Map 3.3 below shows the critical facilities within the county.

Section 3 56

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The population for the City of Elsberry is 2,047. The City was affected by 2008 floods. After 2008 floods, most of the properties which lie in the floodplain have been bought out by the City of Elsberry with the help of the federal funds through the Community Development Block Grant Program. The major risk identified is that the floodwaters would impede the traffic flow in and out off the Hwy 79. There are no critical facilities located in the floodplain.

Section 3 57

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population for the City of Foley is 178. The City was affected by 2008 floods. There are no critical facilities located in the floodplain. The major risk identified is that the floodwaters would impede the traffic flow in and out off the Hwy 79.

Section 3 58

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The City of Hawk Point is not located in the floodplain.

Section 3 59

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population of City of Moscow Mills is 1742. There are no critical facilities located in the floodplain.

Section 3 60

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population for the City of Old Monroe is 250. The major risk identified is that the floodwaters would impede the traffic flow in and out off the Hwy 79. There are no critical facilities located in the floodplain.

Section 3 61

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population for the City of Silex is 206. The City of Silex is currently working on a federal program for relocating the entire City out of the floodplain. There are no critical facilities located in the floodplain.

Section 3 62

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population for the City of Troy is 6,737. There are no critical facilities located in the floodplain.

Section 3 63

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population for the Village of Truxton is 96. The Village is not located in the floodplain.

Section 3 64

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population for the Village of Chain of Rocks is 91. Most of the population is dispersed.

There are no critical facilities located in the floodplain.

Section 3 65

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population for the Village of Fountain N Lakes is 129. The Village is not located in the floodplain.

Section 3 66

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The total population for the Village of Whiteside is 67. The Village is not located in the floodplain.

Section 3 67

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Section 3 68

MO 79 Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

CARDINAL HILL RD

Population density 1 Dot = 5 POP00 100 yr flood boundary Roads «¬79 CRENSHAW RD City Limits Ü Railway PINE ST SECOND ST RT N CHERRY ST

MAIN ST SIXTH ST

KILLAM ST

ELM ST WHITESIDE ST

ELM ST HEWITT ST MAIN ST THIRD ST

WALNUT ST Winfield

DARLA DR

CRD 698

«¬47 MO 47

The total population for the City of Winfield is 723. The above map shows the population density for Winfield along with the 100 year flood boundary. The eastern part of the City is MO 79 mostly affected by floods compared to the western part. Most of the City moved after the 1993 floods. After the 2008 floods, some people elevated«¬79 the homes. Currently, there are some people living in the City that either didn’t move out of the floodplain or elevate their homes. The major risk identified is that the floodwaters would impede the traffic flow on Hwy 79.

Probability of Future Occurrence

Lincoln County faces two major risk factors for flooding: the Mississippi River and Cuivre River basins. The Mississippi River basin drains the eastern third of the county. The river’s floodplain, 3-4 miles wide, runs the length of the county’s eastern border. The communities of Elsberry, Foley, Winfield, and Old Monroe line the edge of the floodplain along State Highway 79. The Cuivre River basin drains the rest of the county.

Several individual communities are situated near streams or rivers. The Cuivre River, narrow and flashy, runs south and west of Silex and east of Moscow Mills. Both Chain of Rocks and

Section 3 69

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Old Monroe lie next to the river. Town Branch and Buchanan Creek run through Troy. Bobs Creek and McLean Creek drain into the Mississippi at Winfield. Whiteside lies beside a tributary of Sandy Creek, which also runs west and north around Foley to reach the Mississippi. Lost Creek runs through southern Elsberry while the Old Kings Lake Creek runs north to south through the middle of the Mississippi floodplain.

Secondly, drainage is a major factor due to the predominately clay soils, which cover the rest of the county. With no place to go, the water will find the lowest elevations; often areas not in a floodplain. This type of flooding, often referred to as sheet flooding, is becoming increasingly prevalent as development outstrips the ability of the drainage infrastructure to properly carry and disburse the water flow. Combined with flooding due to overwhelmed storm and sanitary sewers, tremendous flows of water often accompany storm events in these developed areas. Typically, the water backs into basements, damages mechanical systems and can create serious public health and safety concerns.

The seasonal pattern is shown below. April and May would be the most likely time of year for flooding as shown below. Flood Event by Month, 2004-2008 Month # of Events June 4 July 2 August 1

Out of 7 total floods, four are flash floods and remaining three are floods. The probability of future occurrence of a flood in Lincoln County is ―likely‖. Likely- Event is probable within the next three years. Magnitude/Severity Past flood events in Lincoln County have caused significant damage to property and agriculture, endangered lives, and shut down critical facilities, and agriculture. Elsberry, Foley, Moscow Mills, Old Monroe, Silex, Winfield- ―critical‖; Unincorporated portions of the county- ―limited‖. Critical: 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability.

Levee Failure: Associated with the riverine flooding hazard are floods caused by breaching or failure of levees. Levees are human made structures designed to contain, control or deflect the

Section 3 70

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

flow of water to provide protection from temporary flooding. Levees usually protect seasonal flooding, and may be subject to water loading for periods of only a few days or weeks each year.

Based on a 2007 database of levees known by the Corps, there are 66 levees in Missouri. Twenty nine of these are considered to provide 100-year flood protection. FEMA, as part of its floodplain map modernization effort, has identified 41 levees in Missouri as provisionally accredited levees (PAL). It is expected that additional data on levees will become available in upcoming years with FEMA’s efforts to certify levees nationwide for flood protection. Due to unavailability of levee data for the county, it has been proposed as one of the action plan under mitigation. Probability of Future Occurrence There were more than 1,000 Federal and non-Federal levee breaches during the Great Flood of 1993. From June to August 1993, rainfall totals surpassed greater than 24 inches of rain fell on northern and central Missouri. These amounts were approximately 200-350 percent greater than normal. The Missouri River crested at 48.87 feet at Kansas City on July 27. This crest moved down the Missouri River setting new records at Boonville, Jefferson City, Hermann, St. Charles, and other locations. The first levee was overtopped on June 7, but levee failures soon became common. Levee failures resulted in large amounts of sediments deposited in some inundated areas, and large quantities of sediments were scoured from other inundated areas. No location specific information is available for Lincoln County. However, in St. Louis, out of 42 Federal levees, 12 of them failed or overtopped and out of 47 non-Federal levees, 39 failed (U. S. Geological Survey). Towns along the Mississippi River from Illinois to Missouri were building barriers in an attempt to hold back rising floodwaters by mid-June. As many as 27 levees were in jeopardy of overflowing as the river was projected to rise (NCDC)

2008 floods Heavy rains throughout Iowa and Missouri during June 2008 caused flooding along the Mississippi River drainage system within the USACE, St. Louis District in Missouri and Illinois. Heavy rainfall in April and May saturated the Midwest causing much of the additional heavy rains in June to develop directly into runoff. Rainfall totals over Missouri and Iowa ranged from 8-15 inches during the months of May and June. The saturated soil combined

Section 3 71

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

with the heavy rains created near record river levels throughout the northern portion of the St. Louis District. The mighty Mississippi overflowed 90 percent of the levees in eastern Lincoln County, rushing into Foley, and other towns around the county in June, 2008. The Army Corp of Engineers estimated that the river would have reached 39.2 feet, which is 13 to 14 feet above flood stage for many communities in Lincoln County. The average water level in Lincoln County was 34.3 feet, which is about eight feet above flood stage. On 2008-06-18 floodwaters opened a 150-foot breach in a primary levee along the Mississippi River in Winfield. The breach allowed floodwaters to claim dozens of homes and large tracts of farmland and put pressure on a secondary levee. The breach also prompted Lincoln County emergency officials to order the evacuation of residents east of Winfield.

Figure 3.4 shows the Lock & Dam 25TW Gage Readings for Mississippi River

Lock & Dam 25TW Gage Readings

Section 3 72

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Map 3.17 shows the Mississippi Levee Districts in Lincoln County

Levee Districts

Brevator Drainage District (DD) The Brevator DD is a non-federal levee system that protects 2,158 acres and consists primarily of agricultural lands. Brevator DD protects approximately 2,158 acres of prime farmland. USGS land cover data from 2000 indicates that 1,733 acres are currently being farmed. The levee system consists of 5.7 miles that provides protection from a 14-year flood with 2 feet of freeboard.

Section 3 73

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Map 3.18 shows the levees in Lincoln County along with the flood boundary

STFF HH ST CC ST P Pike Co R-III ST F Ü Z ELSBERRY DRAINAGE DISTRICT ST Whiteside ST W ST 8101 Elsberry STNN «¬79 STUU STRA Elsberry R-II ¤£61 JJ T PP H Silex ST M ST Silex R-I ST ST ST

O ST E ST STV KING'S LAKE DRAINAGE DISTRICT STK STO STKK «¬79 BB STTT ST Foley STY Cave STEE STH DD ST 61 147 Winfield R-IV N Truxton ¬ Winfield STD ¤£ « ST AA 47 STA ST Troy R-III «¬ WINFIELD LEVEE & DRAINAGE DISTRICT A County Boundary ST Troy Hawk Point «¬47 Fountain N' Lakes Incorporated areas «¬79 Roads J ST Moscow Mills C SCHRAMM LEVEE Lincoln County flood boundary ST Old Monroe OO Mississippi Levees Protected STMM ST PORTUCHECK PRIVATE LEVEE U Chain of Rocks Elsberry R-II School District STU ST Pike Co R-III School District Silex R-I School District Warren Co R-III Wright City R-II Troy R-III School District WW Winfield R-IV School District ST Miles 0 0.5 1 2 3 4

Section 3 74

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Cap Au Gris Drainage & levee district The Cap au Gris Drainage and Levee District is a non-federal levee system that protects 5,000 acres and consists primarily of highly productive agricultural lands. Cap au Gris District protects approximately 5,000 acres of prime farmland. USGS land cover data from 2000 indicates that 3,610 acres are currently being farmed. The levee system consists of 7 miles that provides protection from a 14-year flood with 2 feet of freeboard.

Elsberry Drainage District Elsberry Drainage and Levee District is located in Lincoln and Pike Counties, Missouri and is adjacent to the Right Descending Bank of the Mississippi River. The Elsberry D&LD is a non- federal levee system that protects the town of Elsberry as well as surrounding agricultural areas. This drainage and levee district provides protection to over 19,500 acres, primarily agricultural. The levee system also protects several hunting clubs and recreational homes.

Foley Drainage District The Foley Drainage and Levee District is a non-federal levee system that protects over 1,200 acres of primarily agricultural land. The town of Foley contains 78 residential properties and several commercial properties, most of which are protected by the Foley DD.

King’s Lake Drainage District The King’s Lake Drainage District is a non-federal system that protects primarily agricultural lands and provides protection from a 14-year flood event with 2 feet of freeboard. The levee system protects 3,211 acres of land as well as several farm houses and several outbuildings. King’s Lake Drainage District protects approximately 3,181 acres of prime farmland. Land cover data developed by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2000 indicates that 1,109 acres were under cultivation.

Sandy Creek Drainage District The Sandy Creek Drainage District is a non-federal levee system that protects primarily agricultural lands and provides protection from a 14-year flood with 2 feet of freeboard. The system consists of 2.5 miles of levee constructed with an 8-foot to 13-foot crown width and 1 on 2.5 to 1 on 3 side slopes. The levee system protects 1,082 acres of land and several buildings. Sandy Creek Drainage District protects approximately 900 acres of prime farmland. USGS land cover data from 2000 indicates that approximately 750 acres are currently being farmed.

Section 3 75

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Winfield Drainage District – Pin Oaks The Winfield Levee and Drainage District is a non-federal levee system that protects primarily agricultural lands and provides protection from a 16-year flood with 2 feet of freeboard. Winfield Drainage District protects approximately 1200 acres of prime farmland. USGS land cover data from 2000 indicates that approximately 1000 acres are currently being farmed.

The following levee districts received funding for an amount of $7.7 million under the Community development Block Grant Program and U.S. Corps of Engineers through the mitigation efforts made by Boonslick Regional Planning Commission: Brevator Levee district, Cap-Au-Gris Levee District, Elsberry Levee District, Foley Levee District, King’s Lake Levee District, Sandy Creek Levee District, and Winfield Levee District.

Map 3.19 show the Mississippi and Missouri levee districts along with the population density

STCC

STP

8101 «¬79 Elsberry

STB

STJJ

Population Density 1 Dot = 20 POP90 Railway line Mississippi Levees Protected Roads County Boundary Incorporated areas Lincoln County flood boundary Section 3 76

SANDY CREEK DRAINAGE DISTRICT

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Foley

«¬79

FOLEY DRAINAGE DISTRICT

STY

CAPCAP AU AU GRIS GRIS DRAINAGE DRAINAGE & LEVEE &DISTRICT LEVEE DISTRICTCAP AU GRIS DRAINAGE & LEVEE DISTRICT

Population Density 79 «¬ 1 Dot = 20 CAP AU GRIS DRAINAGE & LEVEE DISTRICT POP90 Railway line Mississippi Levees Protected Missouri levees N ST Roads CAP AU GRIS DRAINAGE & LEVEE DISTRICTCounty Boundary Winfield Incorporated areas Lincoln County flood boundary

«¬47

CAP AU GRIS DRAINAGE & LEVEE DISTRICT WINFIELD LEVEE & DRAINAGE DISTRICT

«¬79 WINFIELD DRAINAGE & LEVEE DISTRICT LEVEE & DRAINAGE WINFIELD

BREVATOR DRAINAGE DISTRICT

Section 3 77

Lincoln County HazardBREVATOR Mitigation DRAINAGE DISTRICT Plan SCHRAMM LEVEE July 2011

OLD MONROE LEVEE DISTRICT

«¬79 OLD MONROE PRIVATE LEVEE

STC Old Monroe

HEITMAN PRIVATE LEVEE

MARSTAN PRIVATE LEVEE

PORTUCHECK PRIVATE LEVEE

GROSS AND JAMES PRIVATE LEVEE

Probability of Future Occurrence The probability of future occurrence of a levee failure in Lincoln County is ―likely‖. Likely- Event is probable within the next three years.

Magnitude/Severity Past flood events in Lincoln County have caused significant damage to property and agriculture, endangered lives, and shut down critical facilities, and agriculture. All the primary & secondary levee districts have been repaired immediately after the 2008 floods through the emergency grants funds. Elsberry, Foley, Old Monroe, Winfield- ―critical‖; unincorporated portions of the county- ―limited‖.

Critical: 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability.

3.2.7 Hail Hazard Description Hail develops in strong thunderstorms when rapidly rising currents of air, called updrafts, carry raindrops to a height where they freeze. Other droplets of super cooled water will continue to

Section 3 78

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

freeze onto the hailstones. Stronger updrafts will produce larger hailstones and they will eventually fall out of the sky when the updraft can no longer support them.

Hailstorms cause damage to property, crops, and the environment, and harm livestock. Vehicles, roofs of buildings and homes, and landscaping are the other things most commonly damaged by hail. Hail has been known to cause injury and the occasional fatality to humans, often associated with traffic accidents.

Based on information provided by the Tornado and Storm Research Organization, Table below describes typical damage impacts of the various sizes of hail.

Table 3.12Tornado and Storm Research Organization Hailstorm Intensity Scale Intensity Diameter (mm) Diameter Size Description Typical Damage Impacts Category (inches) Hard Hail 5-9 0.2-0.4 Pea No damage Potentially 10-15 0.4-0.6 Mothball Slight general damage to plants, Damaging crops Significant 16-20 0.6-0.8 Marble, Grape Significant damage to fruit, crops, vegetation Severe 21-30 0.8-1.2 Walnut Severe damage to fruit and crops, damage Severe 31-40 1.2-1.6 Pigeon’s egg > Widespread glass damage, vehicle squash ball bodywork damage Destructive 41-50 1.6-2.0 Golf ball > Pullet’s Wholesale destruction of glass, egg damage to tiled roofs, significant risk of injuries Destructive 51-60 2.0-2.4 Hen’s egg Bodywork of grounded aircraft dented, brick walls pitted Destructive 61-75 2.4-3.0 Tennis ball> Severe roof damage, risk of cricket ball serious injuries Destructive 76-90 3.0-3.5 Large orange > Severe damage to aircraft Soft ball bodywork Super 91-100 3.6-3.9 Grapefruit Extensive structural damage. Risk Hailstorms of severe or even fatal injuries to persons caught in the open Super >100 4.0+ Melon Extensive structural damage. Risk Hailstorms of severe or even fatal injuries to persons caught in the open.

Warning Time: Level 4- Minimal (or no) warning Duration: Level 1- Less than 6 hours

Historical Statistics

The NCDC reported 28 hail events in Lincoln County between 2004 and March 2009. Table below shows the number of hail events by the size of the hail.

Section 3 79

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Table 3.13 Lincoln County Hail Events, 2004- March 2009 Hail Size (inches) Number of Events (2004 - March 2009) 0.75 11 0.77 1 0.88 6 1.00 5 1.75 4 2.00 1 Total 28 Location Hailstorms frequently strike all of Lincoln County during its seasonal pattern. No parts of the county are exempt from this hazard.

Probability of Future Occurrence Based on NCDC data, there were 28 hail events in Lincoln County from 2004- March 2009, an average of 4.66 each year. Hail events producing hail 1.00 inches and larger occurred 10 times over the same 6 year period. The probability of future occurrence is ―likely‖. Likely- Event is probable within the next three years. History of events is greater than 20% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity On an average, Missourians experience hail 2-3 times a year; most of the time it is smaller than a pea (1/4") and will cause little or no damage. The magnitude/severity of a hail storm in Lincoln County is ―critical‖. Critical- 25-50 percent of property severely damaged.

3.2.8 Severe Winter Weather (Snow, Ice and Extreme Cold)

Hazard Description Winter storms in Missouri typically involve snow, extreme cold, and/or freezing rain (ice storms). According to SEMA, severe winter weather events can cause various injuries, deaths and property damage. Causes of death range from traffic accidents during adverse driving conditions to heart attacks caused by overexertion while shoveling snow. Hypothermia or frostbite may be considered the most direct cause of death and injury attributed to winter weather.

Section 3 80

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Economic costs are difficult to measure. Heavy ice can bring down trees, power lines, telephone lines, and communications towers. Power outages create an increased risk of fire as residents seek alternative fuel sources (wood or kerosene for heat and fuel-burning lanterns or candles for emergency lighting). Crops, trees, and livestock can be killed or injured due to deep snow, ice or severe cold. Buildings and automobiles may be damaged from falling tree limbs, power lines and poles. Local governments, homeowners, business owners, and power companies can be faced with spending millions of dollars to restore services and remove debris.

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, approximately 600 adults die from hypothermia each year, with the isolated elderly being most at risk. Also at risk are those without shelter or live in a home that is poorly insulated or without heat. Other potential health and safety threats include toxic fumes from emergency heaters, household fires caused by fireplaces or emergency heaters, and driving in treacherous conditions.

The National Weather Service describes different types of winter storm conditions as follows: - Blizzard: Winds of 35mph or more with snow and blowing snow reducing visibility to less than ¼ mile for at least three hours. - Blowing Snow: Wind-driven snow that reduces visibility. Blowing snow may be falling snow and/or snow on the ground picked up by the wind. - Snow Squalls: Brief, intense snow showers accompanied by strong, gusty winds. Accumulation may be significant. - Snow Showers: Snow falling at varying intensities for brief periods of time. Some accumulation is possible. - Freezing Rain: Measurable rain that falls onto a surface whose temperature is below freezing. This causes the rain to freeze on surfaces, such as trees, cars, and roads, forming a coating or glaze of ice. Most freezing-rain events are short loved and occur near sunrise between the months of December and March. - Sleet: Rain drops that freeze into ice pellets before reaching the ground. Sleet usually bounces when hitting a surface and does not stick to objects.

Provided by the National Weather Service, Figure below shows the relationship of wind speed to apparent temperature and typical time periods for the onset of frostbite.

Section 3 81

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Figure 3.5 Wind Chill Chart

Source: http://www.weather.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml

Warning Time: Level 3- 6-12 Hours Duration: Level 1- Less than 6 hours

Historical Statistics

Lincoln County received 4 presidential major disaster declarations, and 3 USDA declarations for this hazard, as listed in the Table below.

Table 3.14 Disaster Declarations in Lincoln County Involving Winter Storm

Declaration Date Description Declaration Type Disaster Number December 12, 2007 Severe Winter Presidential- Major Disaster Declaration 3281- DR Storms December 27, 2007 Severe Winter Presidential- Major Disaster Declaration 1736-DR Storms January 14, 2007 Severe Winter Presidential- Major Disaster Declaration 1676-DR Storms January 30, 2009 Severe Winter Presidential- Major Disaster Declaration 3303- DR Storms November 30, 2006 Winter Storms USDA M1681 December 6, 2007 Winter Storms USDA M1736 October 12, 2007 Winter Storms USDA N873

The NCDC reported 10 events from 2004 to March, 2009. There were 2 deaths reported in the county from the December, 2005 storm.

Section 3 82

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Location Severe winter weather events frequently strike all of Lincoln County during its seasonal pattern. No parts of the county are exempt from this hazard. Low levels of traffic allow snow or ice to accumulate on unpaved roads making it difficult to plow. This hazard may have a lesser effect on city residents where most roads are paved and city road crews can clear roads more frequently. On the other hand, the cities and towns can be strongly affected during severe winter weather because greater numbers of people travel within its boundaries for work, shopping, and education.

Probability of Future Occurrence

During the 6-year period from 2004-March 2009, there were 10 recorded winter storm events in Lincoln county. The probability of future occurrence of a winter storm in Lincoln County is ―likely‖ Likely- History of events is greater than 20% but less than or equal to 33% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity The magnitude/severity of a severe winter storm is ―critical‖ Critical- 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability.

3.2.9 Thunderstorms and High winds Hazard Description Thunderstorms can produce a strong rush of wind known as a downburst, or straight-line winds which may exceed 120 miles per hour. These storms can overturn mobile homes, tear roofs off of houses and topple trees. Approximately 10 percent of the thunderstorms that occur each year in the United States are classified as severe. A thunderstorm is classified as severe when it contains one or more of the following phenomena: (1) Hail, three-quarters inch or greater; (2) Winds gusting in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph); or (3) A tornado.

High winds often accompany thunderstorms. High winds can result in property damage and injury. Strong gusts can rip roofs from buildings, snap power lines, shatter windows, down trees, and sandblast paint from cars. Other associated hazards include utility outages, arcing power lines, debris blocking streets, dust storms, and an occasional structure fire from this natural hazard.

Section 3 83

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Figure below shows wind zones in the United States. Missouri State comes under Zone IV with a wind rate of 250 mph.

Figure 3.6

Source: FEMA

Warning Time: Level 4- Minimal (or no) warning Duration: Level 2- Less than 1 day

Historical Statistics During the 6-year period from 2004- March 2009, there were 27 thunderstorms and high wind events recorded by NCDC. Table below shows the magnitude and number of thunderstorm and high wind events in Lincoln County from 2004 – March 2009.

Table 3.15 Lincoln County Thunderstorm and High wind events Magnitude No. of Thunderstorms & high winds 0 -50 Knots 1 51-55 Knots 14 56-65 Knots 12 Location Thunderstorms and high wind events frequently strike all of Lincoln County during its seasonal pattern. No parts of the county are exempt from this hazard.

Section 3 84

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Probability of Future Occurrence The probability of future occurrence of thunderstorms and high winds in Lincoln County is ―likely‖. Likely- History of events is greater than 20% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity

The magnitude/severity of thunderstorms and high winds in Lincoln County is ―limited‖ Critical- 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability.

3.2.10 Tornadoes

Hazard Description

Tornadoes are cyclical windstorms or a violently rotating column of air. The average forward speed of a tornado is about 30 m.p.h., but may vary from nearly stationary to 70 m.p.h. The average pathway may vary in any direction, but the average tornado moves from southwest to northeast. Tornadoes are most likely to occur between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m., but may ensue at any hour of the day. Any person or structure at any location could be damaged by a tornado. The amount of damage depends on 1) the strength of the tornado, 2) the tornado’s proximity to the person/structure, 3) the strength of the structure, 4) how well a person is sheltered, etc. Damage can range from very slight to total.

The Fujita Scale (F-Scale) is the standard measurement for rating the strength of a tornado. The National Weather Service (NWS) bases this scale on an analysis of damage after a tornado to infer wind speeds. On February 1, 2007, the NWS transitioned from the F-Scale to the Enhanced Fujita scale (EF-Scale). The EF-Scale is considerably more complex and enables surveyors to assess tornado severity with greater precision. Table below details both the scales.

Warning Time: Level 4- Minimal (or no) warning Duration: Level 2- Less than 1 day

Section 3 85

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Table 3.16

Source: National Weather Service. *** IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ENHANCED F-SCALE WINDS: The Enhanced F-scale still is a set of wind estimates (not measurements) based on damage. Its uses three-second gusts estimated at the point of damage based on a judgment of 8 levels of damage to the 28 indicators listed below. These estimates vary with height and exposure. Important: The 3 second gust is not the same wind as in standard surface observations. Standard measurements are taken by weather stations in open exposures, using a directly measured, "one minute mile" speed.

Historical Statistics Of the 5 tornadoes, the most impacted in Lincoln County were in the vicinity of Moscow Mills, and Hawk Point. Figure below illustrates the number of F3, F4, F5 tornadoes recorded in the United States per 3,700 square miles between 1950 and 1998.

Section 3 86

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Figure 3.7 Tornado activity in the United States

The historical data since 2004 – March 2009 is shown in the table below.

Table 3.17 Lincoln County Tornado events: 2004- March 2009

Date Property Crop Mag. Deaths Injured Damage($) damage($) 6/13/2005 F0 0 0 0 0 3/13/2006 F3 0 6 2.5m 0 3/13/2006 F1 0 0 0 0 10/2/2007 F0 0 0 0 0 12/27/2008 F1 0 0 0 0 Totals 6 2.5m Source: National Climatic Data Center Location Tornado events are likely to occur countywide. No parts of the county are exempt from this hazard. Probability of Future Occurrence

The location of Lincoln County in Wind Zone IV makes the probability of a tornado in any given year ―likely‖.

Likely- History of events is greater than 20% likely per year.

Section 3 87

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Magnitude/Severity

The magnitude/severity of thunderstorms and high winds in Lincoln County is ―limited‖ Critical- 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability.

3.2.11 Wildfires

Hazard Description The majority of the fires, however, and the greatest acreage loss will occur during the spring fire season, which is normally between February 15 and May 10. The length and severity of this burning period depends on weather conditions. Spring in Missouri is noted for its low humidity and high winds. In addition, spring is the time of the year when rural residents normally burn their garden spots, brush piles, etc. Many landowners also still believe it is necessary to burn the woods in the spring of the year in order to get more grass, kill ticks, and get rid of the brush. These conditions, together with below normal precipitation and high temperatures, result in extremely high fire danger. Depending on weather conditions, a sizable number of fires also can occur between mid-October and late November. Warning Time: Level 1- 24+ Hours Duration: Level 2- Less than 1 day

Historical Statistics According to SEMA’s 2000 Hazard Analysis, wildfires are most common in the southern districts of the state. However, it is possible for wildfires to occur in Lincoln County due to drought, debris burning, and incendiary fires. Debris burning is consistently the number one cause of wildfires. Incendiary fires, willfully set on another person’s property, continue to rank second in the number of wildfires each year. Fires caused by natural ignition, like lightning, are rare despite 50 to 70 thunderstorm days per year. According to the Missouri Department of Conservation Forest Fire Reporting, in Lincoln County, the total number of acres burnt was 641.95. Four residential areas were damaged and twelve residential areas were threatened of fire incidents. The reasons for the fire were either debris or unknown fire. Location An increased risk of wildfire occurs in areas called the WUI (Wildland Urban Interface) in addition to the risk faced by the forested areas within the county. The 2000 Wildland-Urban

Section 3 88

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Interface in the U.S. defines a WUI as ―the area where houses meet wildland vegetation (interface WUI) or where houses and vegetation or mixed together (intermix WUI)‖. Within the WUI the three defined Community types that are vulnerable to Wildfire are: - Interface Community

Structures directly abut wildland fuels. There is a clear line of demarcation between wildland fuels and residential, business, and public structures. Wildland fuels do not generally continue into the developed area. The development density for an interface community is usually three or more structures per acre, with shared municipal services.

- Intermix Community

Structures are scattered throughout a wildland area. There is no clear line of demarcation; wildland fuels are continuous outside of and within the developed area. The development density in the intermix ranges from structures very close together to one structure per 40 acres.

- Occluded Community

Often found within a city, structures abut an island of wildland fuels (e.g. park or open space). There is a clear line of demarcation between structures and wildland fuels. The development density is usually similar to those found in the interface community, but the occluded area is usually less than 1,000 acres in size.

The maps below show the wildland-urban interface for Lincoln County.

‘

Section 3 89

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Map 3.20 shows the wildland-urban interface for Lincoln County

Ü

County boundary Roads City Limits Wildland urban interface High_Dens_Interface High_Dens_Intermix Med_Dens_Interface Med_Dens_Intermix Low_Dens_Interface Low_Dens_Intermix Miles High_Dens_NoVeg 0 1 2 4 6

Probability of Future Occurrence

Judging from the amount and location of the county’s forests, a disastrous wildfire is not likely. Therefore, the probability of future occurrence of a wildfire is ―occasional‖.

Occasional- History of events is greater than 10% but less than or equal to 20% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity Although only a third of the county is forested, a wildfire in the grass and crop-covered plains of the northern areas could produce significant crop losses. Grass grows back quickly with little damage, but fires in forests and croplands are costly. Therefore, the magnitude/severity is considered to be as being ―limited‖ to ―critical‖ depending on the attack.

Section 3 90

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Critical- 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability. Limited- 10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability.

3.2.12 Land Subsidence/ Sinkholes

Hazard Description Land subsidence is sinking of the earth’s surface due to the movement of earth materials below the surface. This sinking can be sudden or gradual and is generally attributed to the removal of subsurface water or the draining of organic soils. In Missouri, subsidence is primarily associated with sinkholes. In the case of sinkholes, the rock below the surface is limestone, carbonate rock, salt beds or some other rock that can be naturally dissolved by circulating groundwater. As the rock dissolves, spaces and caverns form, and ultimately the land above the spaces collapse. In Missouri, sinkhole problems are usually a result of surface materials above openings into bedrock caves eroding and collapsing into the cave opening. These collapses are called ―cover collapses‖ and geologic information can be applied to predict the general regions where collapse will occur.

Sinkholes range in size from several square yards to hundreds of acres and may be quite shallow or hundreds of feet deep. Sinkhole formation is most intense where the bedrock is most soluble and has been exposed to extended periods of weathering and where surficial materials are between 40 and 80 feet in thickness and are composed of relict bedrock structure residuum containing clays with low dry densities. Bedrock faulting also contributes to deep weathering, cave formation, and sinkhole formation.

Types of Sinkholes: Dissolution sinkholes- caused by dissolution of subsurface rock, generally limestone. Dissolution of the limestone or dolomite is most intensive where the water first contacts the rock surface. Cover-subsidence sinkholes- tend to develop gradually where the covering sediments are permeable and contain sand.

Section 3 91

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Sinkholes can be human-induced

New sinkholes have been correlated to land-use practices, especially from ground-water pumping and from construction and development practices. The other sources are changes in natural water-drainage patterns, and changes in land surface. Warning Time: Level 3- 6-12 Hours Duration: Level 1- Less than 6 Hours

Historical Statistics Sinkholes are common in Missouri where limestone and dolomite outcrop. The formation of the sinkholes is very slow and suddenly anytime they can form suddenly when a collapse occurs. These collapses can have a dramatic effect if it is occurs in an urban setting.

Map 3.20 shows the geological features for Lincoln County

SandstoneLimestone/Shale/Sandstone Limestone Limestone/Shale Sandstone Limestone/Shale/Sandstone Dolomite/Limestone Limestone/ShaleLimestone Limestone/Shale Limestone Limestone Ü Limestone Limestone/Shale Limestone/Shale Limestone/Shale Limestone/Sandstone/Shale SandstoneDolomite/Limestone Limestone/Shale Limestone/Shale/Sandstone Limestone Limestone/ShaleDolomite/Limestone Limestone Alluvium Limestone/Sandstone/Shale Limestone/ShaleLimestone Limestone/Sandstone/Shale LimestoneLimestone/Shale Limestone

Limestone Limestone/Shale Limestone Limestone/Sandstone/Shale Limestone Dolomite/LimestoneSandstone Dolomite Limestone/Shale LimestoneLimestone/Shale Limestone Limestone/Shale Limestone

Limestone

Limestone Limestone Limestone

Limestone Limestone Limestone

Miles 0 1.5 3 6 9 12

Section 3 92

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Location

The County geological features map shows that the northern part of the county is comprised of a mix of limestone/shale; dolomite/limestone; which is where most of the sinkholes are located. Sinkhole damages haven’t occurred in Lincoln County until now. Most of the sinkholes exist in the unincorporated part of the county.

Map 3.21 shows the location of sink holes in Lincoln(! County

(! ((! (! ( (! (!(! (!(!! ! ((!(! (!!( (! ((! (! ( (!(!(! (! !((! Ü (!( Whiteside (!!( ((! 8101 (! (!(!(! (!(! Elsberry (!(!(!(!

(! (! (! (! ! ! (! (! ((! (! (! (! Silex (! ( (! (!(! (!(! (!(!(! (! (! (! (! (! (!!(!(! (!(!( (! (!(!(! (! (!(! ! (! ((!(!(! ((! (!(! !!(! ! (!(!(( !(! (!(! (!(!(!( Foley (!(!(! (!

Cave (! (!(! (! (! (! Truxton (!(! Winfield (! (! (! (! Troy (! Fountain N' Lakes Hawk Point (! (!(!(!(!(!

(! (! (!(! (! Moscow Mills (!(! Old Monroe

Chain of Rocks County boundary (! City Limits (! Sinkholes Miles 0 0.5 1 2 3

! Probability of Future Occurrence ( The probability of future occurrence of a sinkhole in Lincoln County is ―occasional‖. Occasional- History of events is greater than 10% but less than or equal to 20% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity Sinkholes vary in size and location. The possible impacts are loss of a personal vehicle, a building collapse, damage to infrastructure such as roads, water, or sewer lines, and ground water contamination.

Section 3 93

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

The magnitude/severity of a sinkhole in unincorporated area is ―limited‖. Limited- 10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability.

Manmade and Other Hazards

3.2.13 Hazardous Materials Hazard Description A hazardous material is any substance or material in a quantity or form that may pose a reasonable risk to health, the environment, or property. As per the updated State Hazard Mitigation Plan, the hazardous materials included are substances such as toxic chemicals, fuels, nuclear wastes and /or products, and other radiological and biological or chemical agents. In this section, hazardous materials incidents from fixed facilities and transportation accidents are addressed.

Warning Time: Level 4- Minimal (or no) warning

Duration: Level 2- Less than 1 Day

Historical Statistics Lincoln County is continually at risk for a hazardous materials incident. Although the number of fixed sites using hazardous materials locally is small, the county is vulnerable to accidents involving these materials. Release of hazardous materials can come from fixed sites but is more likely to occur from transportation incidents on highways in the county. Lincoln County is surrounded by Pike County to the North, Mississippi River to the East, Warren and Saint Charles Counties to the South, and Montgomery County to the West. Most employment opportunities exist in Troy, while a few opportunities exist elsewhere in the County. Others commute out of the county for job opportunities. The major highway crossing the county is U.S.61. There is one railway running through the county. There is one navigable river in the county.

Fixed facility accidents

Three pipelines run through Lincoln County. The pipelines carry crude oil. According to the Department of Health and Senior Services, there were 9 incidents reported in the county from 2003-2006.

Section 3 94

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Transportation accidents

According to the Missouri State Highway Patrol crash report, Lincoln County experienced 428 accidents (fatal, personal injury, property damage) in 2009, 871 on 2008, 905 in 2007, and 920 in 2006.

Figure 3.22 Major Roads prone to accidents in Lincoln County

Probability of Future Occurrence The probability of future occurrence of fixed facility accidents is ―likely‖. Likely- History of events is greater than 20% but less than or equal to 33% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity The magnitude/severity is ―limited‖. Limited- 10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability.

3.2.14 Terrorism

Hazard Description

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) defines Terrorism as ―the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.‖ Terrorism causes loss of life,

Section 3 95

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

injuries to people and properties, and disruptions in services. According to the State Hazard Mitigation Plan, potential terrorist actions include the following: Bombings, airline attacks, weapons of mass destruction (WMD) attacks, infrastructure attacks, cyberterrorism, agroterrorism, arson, kidnappings, and assassinations.

Domestic terrorism is another form of threat which comes from white supremacists, black separatists, animal rights/environmental terrorists, anarchists, antiabortion extremists, and self- styled militia. According to FBI, international terrorism has been a major challenge for the United States. This threat can be categorized into three: loosely affiliated extremists operating under the radical jihad movement, formal terrorist organizations, and state sponsors of terrorism. The different types of foreign terrorist organizations are listed in the State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2007.

After the attacks on September 11, 2001, parts of 22 domestic agencies were consolidated into one department, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), to protect the nation against future terrorist threats. Depending on the necessity communities may receive assistance from state and federal agencies operating within the existing Integrated Emergency Management System. FEMA is responsible for supporting state and local response to the consequences of terrorist attacks.

Warning Time: Level 4- Minimal (or no) warning

Duration: Level 3- Less than 1 week

Historical Statistics

Lincoln County has potential targets for terrorist activities. These may include, but are not limited to: Federal, state, county and municipal government facilities and structures. Military installations. HAZMAT Facilities. Medical facilities. Religious facilities. Businesses and manufacturing centers. Airports, railroads, highways and navigable rivers. Pipelines; power plants; public utilities; landmarks; and large public gatherings. Agriculture.

Section 3 96

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

There are twenty eight Homeland Security Response Teams that operate throughout the State of Missouri. Lincoln County is under Region C. There are no terrorism incidents identified within the county.

Probability of Future Occurrence The probability of future occurrence is ―unlikely‖.

Unlikely- History of events is less than or equal to 10% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity

The severity of a terrorist attack could vary from high to low depending on the attack. If the attack is on a building, it would destroy the lives of those inside the building. But if the attack is on a large urban area such as contaminating large area’s water supply, it would affect large number of people. Therefore, the magnitude/severity is considered to be as being ―limited‖ to ―catastrophic‖ depending on the attack. Limited- 10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability. Catastrophic- Multiple deaths; Complete shutdown of facilities for 30 or more days; More than 50 percent of property is severely damaged.

3.2.15 Transportation

Hazard Description

As per the State Hazard Mitigation Plan, for the purpose of this study, transportation is defined as the means, or system, that transfers large groups of individuals from one place to another. This hazard addresses only those accidents that involve passenger air or rail travel that results in accident death or injury.

Warning Time: Level 4- Minimal (or no) warning

Duration: Level 1- Less than 1 day

Historical Statistics

Table below shows the fatality Rates by Mode of Travel, 2001–2003 (Average Deaths per 100 Million Passenger Miles) Highway Vehicle Occupants and Transit Passengers. There were about 148 fatal accidents in the State involving commercial vehicles. An action plan has been added which proposes to maintain an inventory of traffic incidents within the county.

Section 3 97

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

Table 3.18 National Fatality Rates by mode of travel Type of Vehicle Death Rate Airlines 0.02 Automobiles 0.77 Vans, SUVs, Pickup Trucks 0.76 Heavy, Light, and Other Rail Not reported Vehicles Intercity and Commuter Railroads 0.03 Intercity Buses 0.02 Transit Buses 0.03 Source: State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2007 Probability of Future Occurrence

The probability of future occurrence is ―likely‖. Likely- History of events is greater than 20% but less than or equal to 33% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity

The magnitude/severity is ―critical‖ Critical- 25-50 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for at least two weeks; and/or injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability.

3.2.16 Utility Interruptions and Power failures

Hazard Description This hazard may include electrical power, natural gas, public water supplies, and communications systems. Utility systems exist everywhere and are subject to damage from digging, fire, traffic accidents, and severe weather, including flooding, earthquake, and other day-to-day events. Warning Time: Level 4- Minimal (or no) warning Duration: Level 3- Less than 1 Week

Historical Statistics

On January 30, 2002, a severe ice storm struck portions of western and northern Missouri. This hazard was referred as the worst in Missouri’s history which left devastated and darkened homes and businesses. Ice accumulations were over an inch and covered all the objects that were at or below freezing. Further, the weight of the ice broke utility poles, conductors, tree

Section 3 98

Lincoln County Hazard Mitigation Plan July 2011

limbs and other objects that could not withstand the weight of the ice. The ice storm of 2005 with 2-6 inches snow caused 2 deaths. Utility failures could be localized. These failures impact generally on the very young or elderly, who are more prone to health risks that are associated with resultant loss of heating/cooling systems and with the loss of medical equipment that requires a power source. The threat of earthquakes has been of greatest concern to the County which obstructs the operability of the existing utilities.

Probability of Future Occurrence Since, utilities exist throughout the County and are vulnerable to interruptions or failures, there is a probability that this hazard may occur at anytime or anyplace throughout the county. The probability of future occurrence is ―likely‖. Likely- History of events is greater than 20% but less than or equal to 33% likely per year.

Magnitude/Severity

The degree of severity of these day-to-day events may be considered low. Therefore, the magnitude/severity is ―limited‖. Limited- 10-25 percent of property severely damaged; shutdown of facilities for more than a week; and/or injuries/illnesses treatable do not result in permanent disability.

Section 3 99