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Climate Variability, Drought and Drought Management in Morocco's CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN Public Disclosure Authorized MOROCCO’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DORTE VERNER, DAVID TRÉGUER, JOHN REDWOOD, Public Disclosure Authorized JENS CHRISTENSEN, RACHAEL MCDONNELL, CHRISTINE ELBERT, YASUO KONISHI, AND SAAD BELGHAZI This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The colors, boundaries, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this report do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS Exchange Rate 1 USD = 9.84 MAD = 0.91 EUR 1 MAD = 0.10 USD = 0.09 EUR ABARES Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences ABH Agences de Bassins Hydrauliques (River Basin Agencies) ADA Agricultural Development Agency AMS American Meteorological Society AR5 Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC BAMS Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society CAM Crédit Agricole Maroc (Moroccan Agricultural Bank) CDAS Climate Data Assimilation System CDI Consolidated Drought Index CEM Country Economic Memorandum CHIRPS Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station CHJ Júcar Hydrographic Confederation (Spain) CLIVAR Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 CONAGUA National Water Commission (Mexico) CORDEX Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment CRTS Centre Royal de Télédétection Spatiale (Royal Spatial Teledetection Center) CRU Climate Research Unit CWSRF Clean Water State Revolving Fund (California) DJF December, January, February DMI Danish Meteorological Institute DNM Directorate of National Meteorology DRPE Direction de la Recherche et de la Planification de l’Eau (Directorate for Water Research and Planning) DSS Decision Support System i ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation E-OBS ENSEMBLES daily gridded observational dataset for precipitation, temperature and sea level pressure in Europe ERA-Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Interim European Reanalysis ETc Full Water Use EU European Union FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization FMD Farm Management Deposit (Australia) FTE Full-time Equivalent CGMS-Maroc Morocco Crop Growth Monitoring System GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA) GISTEMP Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis GMST Global Mean Surface Temperature GNI Gross National Income GoM Government of Morocco GWP Global Water Partnership HadCRUT4 Hadley Centre/Climate Research Unit gridded surface temperature dataset 4 HCEFLCD Haut Commissariat aux Eaux et Forêts et à la Lutte Contre la Désertification (High Commission for Water, Forests and the Fight against Desertification) HMNDP High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy ICBA International Center for Biosaline Agriculture IDB Islamic Development Bank IDM Integrated Drought Management IDMP Integrated Drought Management Program IDMS Integrated Drought Management System IMF International Monetary Fund INRA Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (National Institute for Agricultural Research) IOC International Olive Council IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JJL June, July, August KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Intstituut (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute) MAD Moroccan Dinar MAM March, April, May MAMDA Mutuelle Agricole Marocaine d’Assurance MAPM Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Fisheries MCC Millennium Challenge Corporation MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance MO Mediterranean Oscillation ii CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN MOROCCO’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR MOI Mediterranean Oscillation Index MT Metric Tons MY Marketing Year NAO North Atlantic Oscillation NAOI North Atlantic Oscillation Index NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP National Center for Environmental Prediction NDMC National Drought Mitigation Center (UNL) NDO National Drought Observatory NDP National Drought Policy NDVI Normalized Different Vegetation Index NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRC Climate, Energy, and Tenure Division (FAO) NTIS National System of Identification and Animal Traceability ONI Oceanic Niño Index ONCA National Office of Agricultural Extension Services ONSSA National Food Safety Office ORMVA Regional Offices of Agricultural Development OSS Observatory of Sahara and the Sahel PDAIRE Integrated Water Resource Development Plan PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index PMH Small and Medium (Irrigation) Perimeters PMV Plan Maroc Vert (Green Morocco Plan) PNEEI National Program for Saving Water in Irrigation PPI Périmètre Public Irrigué (Public Irrigation Perimeter) PPIC Public Policy Institute of California PRONACOSE National Program Against the Drought (Mexico) RCP Representative Concentration Pathway (of Greenhouse Gas emissions) RDMS Regional Drought Management System RFCS Rural Finance Counselling Service (Australia) RMSE Root Mean Square Error RPCA Rotated Principal Component Analysis RVCA Rapid Value Chain Assessment SGAA Agricultural Crop Insurance Service SMAS Maghreb Drought Early Warning System SODMI Standardized Drought Monitoring Indicators SON September, October, November SPEI Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index SPI Standardized Precipitation Index SRES IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SWCB State Water Control Board (California) UKMO United Kingdom Met Office CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN MOROCCO’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR iii UNC University of North Carolina UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNL University of Nebraska–Lincoln USAID United States Agency of International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture USDAFAS United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Advisory Service USDM United States Drought Monitor WeMO Western Mediterranean Oscillation WeMOI Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index WMO World Meteorological Organization WS&D Water Scarcity and Drought WUA Water Users Association iv CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN MOROCCO’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR CONTENTS ABSTRACT 1 OVERVIEW 3 0.1 Introduction 3 0.2 Climate Change, Variability, and Droughts in Morocco 3 0.3 Morocco’s Climate and the Location of Agricultural Activites 4 0.4 The Role of Teleconnections 5 0.5 Drought Impacts on the Agricultural Sector 5 0.6 Impacts on the Citrus Subsector 7 0.7 Impacts on the Olives Subsector 8 0.8 Government Response to Climate Variability and Drought in the Agricultural Sector 9 0.9 Persisting Gaps in and Challenges for Morocco’s Drought Management System 11 0.10 Policy Options 13 0.10.1 National Drought Policy 13 0.10.2 General Approach to Drought Planning and Management 13 0.10.3 Drought Monitoring and Early Warning 14 0.10.4 Vulnerability and Impact Assessments 15 0.10.5 Drought Mitigation and Response 15 v 1 INTRODUCTION 16 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND DROUGHT 2 IN MOROCCO 24 2.1 Overview 24 2.2 The Climate of Morocco 25 2.3 Droughts and their Causes in Morocco 29 2.4 IPCC Projections for Morocco 34 2.5 Future Drought Prospects in Morocco 38 2.6 Implications for Agriculture 41 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND DROUGHT IMPACTS 3 ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN MOROCCO 43 3.1 The Agricultural Sector, Geography, and Climate 43 3.2 Drought Impacts on the Agricultural and Livestock Sector 49 3.3 Sectoral Impacts of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Droughts in Morocco 53 3.4 Climate and Drought Impacts on Selected Key Agricultural Value Chains 58 3.4.1 Overview 58 3.4.2 Climate Change Impacts on the Citrus Subsector 60 3.4.3 Climate Change Impacts on the Olive Subsector 64 3.4.4 Challenges and Recommendations for Climate Change Adaptation in the Citrus and Olive Subsectors 69 DROUGHT MANAGEMENT FOR THE 4 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN MOROCCO 71 4.1 Introduction 71 4.2 Lessons from International Experience with Drought Management 72 vi CLIMATE VARIABILITY, DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN MOROCCO’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 4.3 Evolution of National Drought Policy, Planning, and Interventions in Morocco 78 4.4 Organization and Instruments of Drought Management in Morocco 79 4.4.1 Institutional Framework for Agricultural Development and Water Resources Management 79 4.4.2 Drought Declarations 83 4.4.3 Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems 84 4.4.4 Short- and Long-term Drought Response Interventions 85 4.5 Persisting Challenges and Gaps 89 POLICY OPTIONS 92 5 5.1 National Drought Policy 92 5.2 General Approach to Drought Risk Planning and Management 93 5.3 Drought Monitoring and Early Warning 93 5.4 Vulnerability and Impact Assessments 94 5.5 Drought Mitigation and Response 94 ANNEXES Annex 2.1 Climate Change and Variability
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