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A Study for Evidence Based Policy Recommendations

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A Study for Evidence Based Policy Recommendations A Study for Evidence based Policy Recommendations INTERNAL MIGRATION IN INDIA AND THE IMPACT OF UNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ACROSS STATES A Study for Evidence based Policy Recommendations A Study Report prepared for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Ravi Srivastava Kunal Keshri Kirti Gaur Balakrushna Padhi Ajit Kumar Jha INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT www.ihdindia.org 2020 Published by: INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DEVELOPMENT 84, Functional Industrial Estate (FIE) Patparganj, Delhi-110092 Tel: +91 11 22159148, 22159149 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.ihdindia.org ISBN: 978-81-88315-66-6 Foreword Internal migration in India is closely linked to the pace and pattern of demographic changes and differentiated development of rural and urban areas, which affect the supply and demand for labour in different regions. India’s 2011 population and housing census shows a large increase in migrant population from 309.4 million in 2001 to 449.9 million in 2011. Across state boundaries, the number went from 41.17 million to 54.26 million over the corresponding period. Most inter-state migration is from north-central, eastern regions to western-southern regions. The present Study, sponsored by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), analyses the relationship between the pattern of migration and the pattern of development, looking at both demographic and economic variables. The Study shows a distinct pattern between the characteristics of short-term seasonal migration and those of long-term migration, even as originating states remain largely the same for both. A closer look at State policies from Odisha, Jharkhand, and Kerala shows that states have tended to focus on modal migration tendencies – short- term out-migration in the case of Odisha and Jharkhand, and in-migration in the case of Kerala. It was found that all three studied States have in place policies and programmes to address vulnerabilities of migrants to different degrees of efficacity and success. When the Study was first commissioned, COVID was not part of the equation. But the impact of measures to manage COVID19 on migrant labourers necessitated a quick review and its inclusion in this Study. The impact of the lockdown in India is equal and acutely felt by migrants of all categories, whether seasonal, long-term or circular labourers. It exposed, perhaps for the first time, the full magnitude of labour migration and the nature of different types of migration. COVID19 has also served the opportune purpose of bringing to sharp focus the inadequacy, or rather incompleteness, of existing policies intended to protect migrants. I take this opportunity to congratulate the Institute for Human Development (IHD) and its distinguished team of researchers for this Study. As usual with any study, we anticipate that it will resonate with some, while found wanting by others, exposing areas needing further research. Most importantly, both IHD and UNFPA believe and hope that the Study will stimulate scientific and policy level discussions for a greater understanding of the trends and pattern of internal migration in India. Few countries in the World can boast the ability to draw from within itself, the labour needed to fill the needs of its different regions, in all its vibrant diversity and differential of development. This reflection will hopefully result in improved policies that will, on the one hand, open avenues for better protection of migrants and, on the other hand, better synergies between sending and receiving states, and a maximization of this wealth of energy within the Country itself, thus reaping the ever elusive demographic dividend. Argentina Matavel Piccin UNFPA Representative India and Country Director Bhutan Preface and Acknowledgements This study has been carried out with the support of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). I am grateful to Venkatesh Srinivasan and Devender Singh for proposing that I prepare a report analysing the recent pattern of internal migration in India, and linking it with the uneven pattern of economic development and employment growth, in the context of differential demographic transition in India. After the Corona/COVID-19 pandemic broke out, the issue of labour migration in India has assumed centre-stage and has been mainstreamed in policy discussions in India for the first time. The need for a comprehensive policy for labour migrants is more apparent now than ever before. Given that there is a huge and growing appetite among all stakeholders to understand the contours of internal labour migration in India, we approached the UNFPA with the request that the study report be published under the aegis of the Institute of Human Development. I am very grateful to the UNFPA for giving this permission so that the results of this study can be publicly disseminated. I am particularly grateful to Ms. Argentina Matavel Piccin, UNFPA Representative, for writing the foreword for this publication. At the time of the preparation of the report, the detailed migration tables from the 2011 Census, as well as the Periodic Labour Force Survey Report for 2017-18 were not available. The non-availability of the migration tables from the 2011 Census was a major disappointment for the research team, which had to base its analysis on the provisional D5 tables which were then available. Even with this limitation, the study broke new ground by analyzing all available sources of migration, both from the Census and the National Sample Surveys. It provided an assessment of the contribution of rural-urban migration to urbanization during 2001-11. It also provided a detailed analysis of short-term circular migration using data from the National Sample Surveys and the India Human Development Surveys (IHDS). In part II, vi the study took explicit account of labour force changes and the influence of labour force along with other economic variables, such as GSDP per capita and average wages, on inter- state migration based on NSSO-EUS and other datasets. Further, by projecting labour force growth across education groups and age groups, it provided a more nuanced understanding of the labour market segments which could be involved in inter-state migration as well throwing new light on the possibilities of demographic dividend. The final chapter of the report analyses migration related policies in three states (Kerala, Jharkhand and Odisha) and concludes the need for a comprehensive and coordinated migration policy between Centre and States. The study thus provides a comprehensive analysis of the trends and patterns of different types of migration in India. It further situates internal migration in the context of demographic changes and the nature of uneven development. It finally provides a perspective on migration policy from the perspective of states. These findings can readily feed into an understanding of migration and policy responses urgently required in the Corona/COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic period. In the preparation of this report we also received help and co-operation of a number of individuals and institutions. We are grateful to the then Chief Secretary of Jharkhand, Mr. Sudhir Kumar, and his colleagues for discussing pertinent issues relating to migration in Jharkhand and for sharing data and information. I am further grateful to Dr. Shri Ranjan, former IAS, and Regional Director, of IHD, Ranchi, his colleague Ashwani Kumar and to members of civil society organisations in Ranchi for discussing the state of migration and migration policy in Jharkhand with me. I am also grateful to Hemant Bajaj and Laetitia Mukhim of UNFPA for the excellent administrative support during the execution of the study. Last, but not least, I am grateful to Dr. Alakh N. Sharma, Director, Institute for Human Development (IHD), and Ms. Priyanka Tyagi, Senior Manager (Programme, Administration, and Communication), IHD for the support given for the publication of this study. The first major part of the study analysing migration trends and patterns from available data sets has been carried out by Dr. Kunal Keshri (Assistant Professor, Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute, Prayagraj) and Dr. Kirti Gaur (ICSSR Post-Doctoral Fellow at GBPSSI, Prayagraj). The second part of the study which analyses and projects till 2031, labour force, employment, unemployment across states, along with other economic variables such as GSDP, GSDP per capita, and wages, has been carried out by me, along with Balakrushna Padhi (Economist, CEFT, UNICEF, Xavier University, Bhubaneswar), and Dr. Ajit Kumar Jha (Assistant Professor, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, New Delhi). The entire study has been carried out under my coordination and direction. I must add that the UNFPA and the IHD do not bear any responsibility for the analysis and views expressed in this report. Ravi Srivastava May 2020 Contents Foreword ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� iii Preface and Acknowledgements�����������������������������������������������������������������v List of Tables ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xi List of Figures �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xxi CHAPTER 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................1 1.1. Understanding and Interpreting Migration Trends �������������������������������1 1.2. Unequal
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