Foreword by George Friedman
Foreword Foreword by George Friedman Several processes are at work in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, one layered over the other. At the top is a massive shift in how the global economy works following the 2008 financial crisis. This pe- riod began a crisis for exporting countries. Put simply, 2008 diminished the capacity of the United States and Europe to import manufactured products, which struck China particularly hard inasmuch as it was heavily dependent on manufactured exports. There was a significant lag in perception catching up to re- ality. Expectations that the Chinese appetite for industrial minerals, including oil, would remain steady kept prices up. When it became clear that these expectations were unrealistic, the price of oil plunged. Europe, in particular, has not returned to pre-2008 consumption patterns and neither has the United States. Therefore, with increased production and decreased demand, the economics of oil have created a new economic reality for the GCC. The second layer is a fundamental shift in how the United States approaches the region. The lesson of Iraq, and also Afghanistan, has been that the United States has the ability to destroy armies, but not to occupy hostile nations unless it is prepared to absorb ongoing casualties. Since the costs outweigh the benefits to the United States, the US has adopted a new strategy in which it is prepared to support efforts by powers native to the region with material, intelligence, and air power, but is not prepared to absorb the cost of direct intervention on the ground. In effect, the United States has adopted a strategy of maintaining a re- gional balance of power, rather than of using its own force to manage the situation.
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