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The World After Covid-19 Cooperation Or Competition?

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The World After Covid-19 Cooperation Or Competition? THE WORLD AFTER COVID-19 COOPERATION OR COMPETITION? SAM Publications ANTALYA DIPLOMACY FORUM The World after COVID-19: Cooperation or Competition? The World after COVID-19: Cooperation or Competition? Center for Strategic Research & Antalya Diplomacy Forum Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs ANTALYA DIPLOMACY FORUM SAM Publications EDITORIAL BOARD The World after COVID-19: ANTALYA Cooperation or Competition? DIPLOMACY FORUM Center for Strategic Research & Antalya Diplomacy Forum Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs YAVUZ SELİM KIRAN Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Cover & Layout: Ali Burak CESUR Printed in Ankara, Turkey by Başak BURAK AKÇAPAR Matbaacılık Directorate General for Foreign Policy, Analysis and Coordination June 2020 Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs ISBN: 978-975-7307-73-0 UFUK ULUTAŞ Center for Strategic Research Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs MESUT ÖZCAN Diplomacy Academy Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs SİBEL ERKAN Center for Strategic Research Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs YASİN TEMİZKAN Center for Strategic Research Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs MEHMET ZEKİ GÜNAY Center for Strategic Research (SAM) Center for Strategic Research Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dr. Sadık Ahmet Cad. No:8 Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Balgat/Ankara 06100 TURKEY www.sam.gov.tr 6 The World after COVID-19: Cooperation or Competition? Contents 7 CONTENTS Editor & Authors .........................................................................9 Depression, Recession and Global Restructuring ..................68 George FRIEDMAN Foreword .....................................................................................10 Mevlüt ÇAVUŞOĞLU The Post-COVID-19 World Order and Japan’s Foreign Policy: The Emerging “Three Worlds” .....................................73 The Post-COVID-19 Era: Will There Be More Yuichi HOSOYA Competition or More Cooperation? .......................................13 Yavuz Selim KIRAN COVID-19: Deepening the Fault Lines of Geopolitics .........79 Wolfgang ISCHINGER Editor’s Note COVID-19: What to Expect? ............................18 Ufuk ULUTAŞ The “New Normal” Global Governance Post COVID-19 .....84 Ammar KAHF Global Governance in the Post-COVID-19 Era .....................27 Aizaz Ahmad CHAUDHRY COVID-19 and the Russian Foreign Policy ............................89 Andrey KORTUNOV COVID-19 and Europe: Looking for a Geopolitical Megaphone ...........................................................33 Transnational Actors and Pandemics: The Case of Teresa CORATELLA Diasporas and the COVID-19 Disease ....................................94 Gallia LINDENSTRAUSS How Will the World Look after the COVID-19 Crisis? ........38 Michael DORAN Towards Competitive Multilateralism .....................................99 C. Raja MOHAN The Coming Metamorphosis ....................................................42 Eduardo DUHALDE COVID-19 Is Testing American Leadership but It Will not Change the Global Order .........................................105 COVID-19 and Great Power Rivalry .......................................46 Joseph S. NYE Jr. Ehud EIRAN The Corona Crisis and the International Relations: Post-COVID-19 Africa Outlook ..............................................51 Open Questions, Tentative Assumptions ..............................111 Afyare A. ELMI & Abdi M. HERSI Volker PERTHES Global Governance in the Post-COVID-19 Era .....................57 A Crisis of Empire? The Impact of the COVID-19 Richard FALK Pandemic on U.S. Foreign Policy ...........................................116 Richard E. RUBENSTEIN No Paradigm Shift in Post COVID-19 World Order .............63 Ibrahim FRAIHAT The Pandemic and International Politics ..............................122 Richard SAKWA 8 The World after COVID-19: Cooperation or Competition? 9 EDITOR Order at the Gates: Globalisation, Techphobia and Ufuk ULUTAŞ the World Order .......................................................................129 Samir SARAN AUTHORS Europe’s Global Role Post COVID-19 ...................................134 Aizaz Ahmad CHAUDHRY Nathalie TOCCI Teresa CORATELLA The Impact of COVID-19 .......................................................138 Michael DORAN Jose Ignacio TORREBLANCA Eduardo DUHALDE Ehud EIRAN Regional and Global Impacts and Implications Afyare A. ELMI & Abdi M. HERSI of COVID-19 ............................................................................141 Richard FALK Rigoberta MENCHÚ TUM Ibrahim FRAIHAT George FRIEDMAN After The Pandemic: Time for More Minilateralism? .........146 Yuichi HOSOYA Marton UGROSDY Wolfgang ISCHINGER Ammar KAHF Future of the Global System in the Post-COVID-19 Era ....151 Andrey KORTUNOV Yiwei WANG Gallia LINDENSTRAUSS C. Raja MOHAN Adapting to a New Normal: German Foreign Policy and Public Opinion in Times of COVID-19 ........................156 Joseph S. NYE Jr. Joshua WEBB & Ronja SCHELER Volker PERTHES Richard E. RUBENSTEIN COVID-19 and the Future of the Global System: Richard SAKWA Shifting-Sands or Earthquake .................................................160 Samir SARAN Mahjoob ZWEIRI Nathalie TOCCI Jose Ignacio TORREBLANCA Notes on Contributors .............................................................165 Rigoberta MENCHÚ TUM Marton UGROSDY Yiwei WANG Joshua WEBB & Ronja SCHELER Mahjoob ZWEIRI *** The information and views set out in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey. 10 The World after COVID-19: Cooperation or Competition? Foreword 11 Turkey, under the leadership of President Erdoğan, has been taking all the necessary steps to contain the virus and minimize its effects on the Turkish people. Thanks to the tireless efforts of all our institutions and the invaluable support provided by our citizens, we managed to pass the pandemic’s peak and are heading toward normalization. We have been FOREWORD coordinating our efforts and sharing our experience with other countries and relevant international organizations since the outbreak of the pandemic. In addition, we have been assisting other countries and contributing to global efforts. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has been playing a distinctly important role in this process. Our dedicated diplomats in Turkey and all around the world have been working around the clock to engage with Turkish citizens and their foreign colleagues. While the newly established Coordination and Support Center orchestrates our COVID- Just a few months ago, no one could have foreseen the 19-related operations, our 24/7 active Call Center has been immense changes the world has undergone. Now, not a single effectively processing thousands of requests from our citizens nation has been spared and COVID-19 has infected millions in need of assistance. So far, over 85,000 Turkish citizens have of people while claiming hundreds of thousands of lives so far. been brought home from 130 countries and we are making Furthermore, human interaction across borders and within the necessary arrangements for the safe return of more in the countries has come to an almost complete standstill. Even coming weeks. though some countries, including Turkey, have managed to bend its curve downward, the overall number of active cases We give priority to our people’s health and carry out has unfortunately continued to rise. One way or another, consular work accordingly. Yet at the same time, we must be COVID-19 has impacted the lives of each and every one of us ready for the new geopolitical environment that is already across the world and affected everything we can think of. All taking shape. How is COVID-19 affecting the global political countries are in this together and we need global cooperation and economic order? What will the post-COVID-19 world now more than ever. Indeed, while the pandemic has revealed look like? What opportunities and threats will be presented some serious deficiencies in the international system, we should by the new international environment? As we have been be spending this critical time working together to overcome the brainstorming and considering these questions, we also sought crisis, and defer any discussions that would disrupt our mutual out exceptional experts and academics so that we might also fight against the virus. It is time to set aside our differences and benefit from their assessments of these issues. The Foreign put our heads together focusing on cooperation rather than Ministry’s Center for Strategic Research (SAM), acting as competition for the common good. a bridge between our Ministry and the academic world, has 12 The World after COVID-19: Cooperation or Competition? been actively bringing outside thinking to our organization. A few weeks ago, SAM published an edited book, titled The Post- THE POST-COVID-19 ERA: COVID-19 Global System: Old Problems, New Trends, which WILL THERE BE MORE COMPETITION included articles from 26 distinguished Turkish scholars. We are glad that this timely, thought-provoking and enlightening OR MORE COOPERATION? book has already found a place on the desks of policy makers and thinkers in our country. SAM then asked the same questions to a group of prominent intellectuals from different parts of the world. The World after COVID-19: Cooperation or Competition? is the result of harnessing all of this brain power. It is no stretch of the imagination to see this book as one of the most important academic works that will assist policy
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