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Gino Jo, Beto Ramos, Brandon Moore, Rick Eldee

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Gino Jo, Beto Ramos, Brandon Moore, Rick Eldee Gino Jo, Beto Ramos, Brandon Moore, Rick Eldee Equity Research | April 19, 2016 | NYSE: RACE NASDAQ: RACE Current Price: $44 Intrinsic Value: $58 Target Price: $73 Implied Return: 33% Recommendation Company Profile Ferrari N.V. (RACE) offers highly exclusive and exotic experiences to the world’s wealthiest individuals. Ferrari is not a traditional automobile manufacturer. The business exhibits high margins, strong cash flow, and low cyclicality. Its scarcity BUY and unique attributes justify a premium valuation to its peers. The turbulent IPO environment alongside international concerns provide an entry point to an incredibly strong brand undervalued by 33%. Key Statistics Price Performance Sector: Consumer Goods RACE S&P 500 12.5% Industry: Auto Manufacturer Market cap: $7.86B 0% 52 week high: $60.97 52 week low: $31.66 -12.5% Trailing P/E: 24.00x Forward P/E: 22.18x -25% P/S: 2.39x EV/EBITDA: 13.79x -37.5% Beta: N/A ROA: 7.14% Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Catalysts Investment Thesis - New products Ferrari’s brand is among the strongest worldwide. Its unique - High-net-worth individual growth scarcity-driven supply means it has no inventory risk as demand greatly exceeds supply. Rising high-net-worth individual - Branding populations worldwide, especially in emerging markets will - Emerging markets support steady revenue growth. - Stable cash flows, low cyclicality - Undervaluation driven by IPO timing - Long-term pricing power with low Chinese exposure Recommendation: BUY Investment Thesis Breakdown Reliable Non-Cyclical Business While Ferrari’s products are considered luxury items, the end-market for its products is generally the ultra-wealthy that are able to continue spending during strained economic environments. Additionally, Ferrari is a brand that has been developed over the past 75 years through high-performance racing throughout the world. The brand, built upon the engineering excellence of its Formula 1 racing team, is licensed out to carefully selected luxury goods manufacturers in a variety of markets including apparel and accessories. As the population of high-net- worth individuals continues to grow worldwide, we expect Ferrari to continue their expansion of its brand image by providing unique experiences to the ultra wealthy. Yearly Automobile Production 9,000 6,750 4,500 2,250 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Undervaluation From IPO As Ferrari completed its IPO on October 21, 2015 at $55, the market was preparing a broad selloff that lasted through early February 2016. In November 2015, Ferrari reported its Q3 2015 earnings with mixed sales results. China reported -40% YoY Q3 unit sales while the United States and the United Kingdom reported a +30% increase. A changing product mix can also be attributed to the decline as the F12 Berlinetta, which is in its fourth year of production, declined -17%. Ferrari’s stock price was brought down with the selloff reaching a trough of $32 in February. The stock has since rebounded to a range of $40-$42. Since Ferrari is a unique pure play luxury automobile manufacturer with reliable revenue growth prospects, we expect the firm to rebound from this adverse environment with strong performance going forward and that the stock will reflect this as its pure play nature suggests its earnings growth will drive stock performance. Ferrari is not a traditional manufacturer compared to its peers because its peers are part of automobile conglomerates. Ferrari is a great opportunity to gain exposure to the high-growth luxury segment of the car industry with a powerful brand that is able to withstand the most adverse economic environments based on its scarcity value and prestige. Equity Research | April 19, 2016 | NYSE: RACE Analysts: Gino Jo, Beto Ramos, Brandon Moore, Rick Eldee 2 Recommendation: BUY Investment Thesis Continued Zero Inventory Risk Ferrari limits the production of its automobiles in order to Global YOY Sales Growth maintain the scarcity value associated with its products as Ultra Luxury Industry it refrains from diluting its brand. The firm’s demand greatly 50% exceeds its limited supply, which is why the average wait list surpasses one year and its ultra high-end offerings 37.5% requires unique connections and prestige in order to be invited to order. This results in a unique position as all of 25% Ferrari’s inventory is pre-paid and sold before it leaves the factory floor. Ferrari’s future profits are thus determined by the level a which management wants to produce versus 12.5% growing demand which most firms rely on to secure sales. The firm’s demand has remained largely stable throughout 0% the most adverse economic environments, providing guaranteed cash flows when they are needed the most. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 This represents tremendous pricing power that drives continued margin expansion. This was evident in 2013 when the firm produced 400 fewer automobiles while increasing revenues by 5% and profits by 8%. In response to the tightening of supply, Ferrari’s wait lists bloated in 2014. This lead to management’s decision to increase its production by 350 automobiles. Ferrari has pledged to cap production to 10,000 units per year in order to maintain brand scarcity and expects to reach 9,000 units by 2019. Emerging Market Growth The firm’s biggest growth potential lies in the emerging EMEA Americas China Rest of Asia markets of the Middle East and Asia. In the case of the Middle East, oil price volatility has proven to be a headwind as much of the wealth in the region is closely tied to oil. 12% Although oil may remain a largely detrimental factor in Middle Eastern growth, any demand decrease in the region 9% will be covered by another region as net demand is 45% expected to remain positive through economic headwinds. With net demand remaining positive through almost any emerging market headwind, emerging markets present only 34% a positive contribution to demand as any upside will contribute to the firm’s scarcity value and any downside will be covered by customers in other regions. Equity Research | April 19, 2016 | NYSE: RACE Analysts: Gino Jo, Beto Ramos, Brandon Moore, Rick Eldee 3 Recommendation: BUY Products Automobiles Ferrari shipped 7,664 sports car and grand tourer (GT) cars Sports Cars GT Cars Special Edition in 2015, which accounted for 72.9% of revenues. Prices 488 GTB California T F12 TDF ranged from $202,000 to $323,000 before options. Ferrari’s 488 Spyder GTC4 Lusso LaFerrari current lineup of cars includes Special Edition vehicles commanding prices of over $1 million. F12 Berlinetta 488 GTB Spider: Launched in March 2015, designed for track-level performance while being suitable for everyday use. Can accelerate to 200km/hr in 8.3 seconds. California T: Launched in 2014, only Ferrari GT car with a retractable hard top, rear seats, and spacious trunk. Includes world’s only turbocharged V8 with variable boost management system for minimal turbo lag. LaFerrari: Launched in 2013, Ferrari’s latest supercar commanding over $1 million includes hybrid technology to be Ferrari’s most powerful car ever. It’s V12 and dual electric engines give LaFerrari 963 horsepower. Engines & Branding Ferrari’s other lines of business include Engines, which Cars Engines Sponsorship & Brand Other creates customized high performance engines for Maserati and various Formula 1 teams. In the long run, a dramatic increase in sales for Maserati could provide a major source 3% 14% of revenue growth as Maserati continues to enter new markets and introduce new vehicles that include Ferrari’s engines like the new Levante mid-sized luxury crossover 10% SUV. Sponsorship and Branding provide additional cash flows to compliment their baseline automotive business. The 73% licensing of Ferrari has allowed organizations like Formula 1 to attach themselves to Ferrari’s long and successful racing franchise. Equity Research | April 19, 2016 | NYSE: RACE Analysts: Gino Jo, Beto Ramos, Brandon Moore, Rick Eldee 4 Recommendation: BUY Competitive Advantage Brand Independence: Ferrari is the only publicly traded pure play luxury automobile manufacturer. Since the spin-off from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Ferrari can focus on implementing its branding and emerging market expansion without being dragged down with the rest of a diversified automotive conglomerate. In the past, Ferrari was the cash cow of Fiat Chrysler and stood to benefit the rest of the firm as much of Ferrari’s cash flows were used to facilitate the large debt of the parent firm. Presently, Ferrari can maintain a sustainable degree of debt on its books while focusing on utilizing cash for growth and dividend payments. Formula 1 Prestige: Most Formula 1 teams including McLaren and Red Bull are trying to further their record and drive demand for their vehicles by winning championships. Ferrari does not have to worry about this, as it has not won a major Formula 1 championship in ten years, yet retains its best in class record spanning decades. As its competitors pump resources into research and development to win races, Ferrari has more modest investments into the space with a focus on developing technologies that is can include on its next super car. Successful Branding Outlook: Ferrari is the most successful diversifier of its brand among its peer group. For years, the firm has licensed its brand to various outlets including clothing and accessories to boost revenues. Typically, firms diversify their business to accommodate downturns to their business, but Ferrari does so to exploit the selling power of the Ferrari brand to boost earnings with very little costs. Competitor Analysis Ferrari competes with a broad range of automobile manufacturers, from the lower end with Mercedes and Porsche, to the higher end with Lamborghini and Rolls-Royce.
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