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Wind Patterns of Coastal Tanzania: Their Variability and Trends Western Indian Ocean J. Mar. Sci. Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 107-120, 2011 © 2012 WIOMSA Wind Patterns of Coastal Tanzania: Their Variability and Trends S.B. Mahongo,*1, J. Francis2 and S.E. Osima3 1Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute, PO Box 9750, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; 2Department of Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries, University of Dar es Salaam, PO Box 65011, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; 3Tanzania Meteorological Agency, PO Box 3056, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Keywords: Coastal winds, wind patterns, variability and trends, large-scale climate phenomena, Tanzania. Abstract—Patterns in Tanzanian coastal winds were investigated in terms of their variability at the weather stations of Tanga, Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam and Mtwara. Three-hourly data collected over a 30-year period (1977-2006) were used for the study. Statistical analyses included regressions, correlations, spectral analysis, wavelet analysis and partial correlations. Among the four stations, Mtwara proved to have the strongest winds, and Dar es Salaam the weakest. The study confirmed that NE winds prevail from November to March along the coast of Tanzania and SE winds from April to October. The monthly means were mainly composed of annual and semi-annual signals, as well as low frequency oscillations of different wavelength. Generally, the wind speeds were significantly correlated with the El- Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, while at Mtwara the winds were also correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole. These correlations were higher during the SE Monsoon than during the NE Monsoon. Trends in the monthly mean and maximum wind speeds indicated that the winds have generally strengthened over the past three decades, the corresponding rates of increase being about 0.04-0.07 and 0.03-0.08 m.s-1.y-1 respectively, except for the monthly maximum speeds at Mtwara which declined at a rate of ~0.02. The maximum wind speed at Dar es Salaam remained almost unchanged. INTRODUCTION Wind patterns along the coast of Tanzania ITCZ moves between the tropics of Cancer form part of the prevailing monsoon wind and Capricorn, usually with a seasonal lag of system (Schiller & Bryceson, 1978). The 4–6 weeks (Ker et al., 1978). When the ITCZ winds are influenced by seasonal shifts in the is in the south, the winds blow from the NE, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and when it is in the north, the winds come which is a low pressure system that encircles from the SE. The SE trade winds originate the earth roughly parallel to the equator. The from the semi-permanent South Indian Ocean Corresponding author: SBM Email: [email protected] 108 S.B. MAHONGO et al. anticyclone (Mascarene High), a centre of July-August, while Zanzibar experienced high atmospheric pressure that seasonally peak speeds in January. He also noted that, shifts its position between 31°S; 60°E in July, at Mtwara, maximum wind speeds have and 37°S; 80°E in March. increased linearly since 1972, whereas at the Conversely, the NE Monsoons originate other three locations, the speeds revealed a from a semi-permanent high pressure system decreasing trend. which is centred in the Arabian Gulf (Arabian Lwambuka (1992) compiled 18 years of High). This system, which is commonly wind data at several locations in Tanzania referred to as the Arabian Ridge, is related including Tanga, Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam and to a pressure build-up over Siberia (Siberian Mtwara. Using the method of moments, he High). At 850 mb (corresponding to about 1 found 50-year extreme gust speeds of 30m.s-1 500 m above sea level), the monsoonal air at Tanga, 29m.s-1 at Zanzibar, 2729 m.s-1 at current circulating in East Africa (East African Dar es Salaam and 3829 m.s-1 at Mtwara. In Low Level Jet) is characterized by very high another study, Njau (1997) investigated the speeds of between 25 and 50 m.s-1 (Findlater, velocity characteristics of wind in Tanzania, 1977). At the surface, however, the general including the coast. He observed that the tropospheric circulation has very low speeds wind speed at coastal stations displayed two which are also modified by the system of land clear minima in the year at March and in and sea breezes at individual locations. September-November. In coastal Tanzania, most authors consider Nieuwolt (1973) analysed sea breezes the NE Monsoon to prevail from November along the Tanzanian coast using four years to March, and the SE Monsoon from April to of surface wind data from Dar es Salaam. October (Iversen et al., 1984; Newell, 1957). He observed that, during the NE Monsoon, a The NE winds are lighter and predominantly sea breeze prevailed most of the time, while northerly, while the SE winds are usually in the SE Monsoon, the main trend was from strong and predominantly southerly (Iversen the land. A diurnal reversal of the sea and land et al., 1984). Occasionally, the SE Monsoons breezes developed regularly only during the are associated with episodic events such as intermediate periods between the monsoons. storms and cyclones. An extensive survey of However, the winds in the general circulation south-west Indian Ocean tropical cyclones were often quite strong. Summer (1982) dating back to 1854 revealed that, although illustrated the importance of local diurnally- hurricanes are fairly common and frequently varying land and sea-breezes in Dar es Salaam affect the region between Mozambique and using two years of surface wind data and at the Mascarene Islands (averaging 3.y-1), they the 850 mb level. He observed a marked rarely occur along the coast of Tanzania. The change in wind direction at the surface in only known cyclone of full intensity to strike all seasons, such that mean three-hourly the Tanzanian coast occurred at Lindi and data clearly depicted a regular alternation Mtwara on 15 April 1952 (Blumel, 1984). between land and sea breezes superimposed Other cyclones that have affected coastal on and interacting with the prevailing general Tanzania occurred at Zanzibar and Bagamoyo circulation. in April 1872 and at Zanzibar again in August In this study, wind patterns were 1994 (Francis et al., 2001). investigated along the coast of Tanzania Various aspects of the wind patterns along from Tanga, Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam and the coast of Tanzania have been investigated. Mtwara, applying a variety of statistical Dubi (2001) used data spanning 25 years to technique such as spectral analysis, wavelet determine variations in maximum wind speed analysis, regressions, correlations and partial and their general trends along the coast. His correlations to meteorological data spanning results showed that Tanga, Dar es Salaam 28 years from 1977. The investigation aimed to and Mtwara experienced peak speeds during contribute knowledge on the Tanzanian coastal Wind Patterns of Coastal Tanzania: Their Variability and Trends 109 climate system, and yield information for for each location was taken as the highest improved monitoring and management of the of the three-hourly observations. Similarly, coastal environment. The specific objectives the maximum values in each month were of the study were to explore the long-term taken as the monthly maxima. Seasonality directional and oscillatory patterns, and the of wind speed was derived by averaging the extreme velocities, in Tanzanian coastal monthly data, say January, for all the years on winds. The study also aimed at exploring any the record. Patterns in both wind speed and links with the large-scale climatic systems. A direction were further investigated through possible limitation in the study revolved around plots of wind rose diagrams that were plotted the assumption that data from land-based in MATLAB. The presence of long-term meteorological stations were representative of changes at each location was determined the wind field in the coastal domain. However, through linear regression of the monthly mean the coastal topography and other micro- and maximum wind speeds. climatic conditions were expected to differ Time series spectra of the monthly means only slightly between land and water. were estimated using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) in STATISTICA to determine the DATA and ANALYTICAL significant spectrum peaks. The Parzen window (Oppenheim & Schafer, 1999) was METHODS chosen for smoothing of the raw data sets. Wind speed and direction data for the coastal This window is a weighted moving average and island stations of Tanga, Zanzibar, Dar es transformation that assigns the greatest Salaam and Mtwara (Fig. 1) were obtained weight to the observation being smoothed in from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency. the centre of the window, and diminishing The data, which spanned from 1977 to 2006, weight to values that are further away from were recorded at three-hourly intervals by the centre. The Parzen window was preferred rotating cup anemometers at a height of 10 m. to other lag windows as it provided the best The instruments are serviced and calibrated interpretation of the results. annually, and are installed sufficiently distant Wavelet analysis was undertaken on the from direct physical obstructions, making data to further explore the monthly mean the data uniform in quality and comparable. and maximum wind speeds at each station. Although the coastal topography and other While the time-series may contain dominant micro-climatic conditions may differ slightly, periodic signals, these signals can vary in these land-based and island station data were both amplitude and frequency over long considered representative of the wind field periods. This technique therefore allows over the near-shore coastal domain. decomposition of the time-series in terms of Prior to analysis, the data sets were frequency and shows the evolution in relative cleaned by removal of spikes that stood out as strength of the dominant modes with time.
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