Lava flow risk assessment on Mount Etna through hazard and exposure modelling 1669 Etna eruption Annalisa Cappello1, Giuseppe Bilotta1, Claudia Corradino1, Gaetana Ganci1, Alexis Herault1,2, Vito Zago1,3, Ciro Del Negro1 1 INGV-CT, Italy 2 CNAM, France 3 Northwestern University, USA E-mail:
[email protected] Summit and flank eruptions at Etna Summit eruptions are consequence of the ascent of magma from a central reservoir through the central conduit. Flank eruptions originate from the central conduit; here magma rises and propagates laterally and downslope, All eruption typologies are likely to give rise to lava flow, feeding radial and which is the greatest hazard presented by Etna to the lateral fissures. inhabited areas. Aerial view (from South to North) of the densely urbanized southern flank of Etna. Numerous historical and pre-historical parasitic cones are surrounded by towns and villages. Definition of risk for lava flow inundations Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability × Exposure H = Hazard V = Vulnerability E = Exposure (Value) The probability The level of damage A properly dimensioned that a certain suffered by an and scaled measure of area will be element or group of the number of people, RISK inundated by elements as a result buildings, roads or other future lava of the occurrence of critical infrastructure flows over a an event of given potentially affected by the specific time intensity and hazardous phenomenon. period. magnitude. Vulnerability to lava flow inundation = 100% = 1 Lava flow hazard map Lava flow hazard based on field data, probabilistic modelling, and MAGFLOW simulations. Colors represent different hazard levels indicating a ranges of probability of inundation by a lava flow from a flank eruption in the next 50 years.