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2014 1St Quarter Investment Performance

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2014 1St Quarter Investment Performance PERSPECTIVE FOCUS INTEGRITY ADAMS COUNTY RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION REPORT MARCH 31, 2014 Watershed Investment Consultants, Inc. 6400 S. Fiddler’s Green Circle, Suite 500 Greenwood Village, CO 80111-4955 303.738.0300 www.watershedinvest.com CAPITAL MARKET RETURNS First Quarter 2014 US EQUITIES Market Value Growth FIXED INCOME Total Excess S&P 500 1.8% Barclays Aggregate 1.8% 0.2% Russell Top 200® (Lrg Cap) 1.4% 2.1% 0.7% Russell MidCap® 3.5% 5.2% 2.0% T-Bills 0.0% … Russell 2000® (Sml Cap) 1.1% 1.8% 0.5% Barclays Intermediate Treasury 0.6% … Barclays Long Treasury 7.1% … NON-US EQUITIES US$ Local Currency Barclays US TIPS 1.9% … MSCI AC World 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% Barclays US Treasury 1.3% … MSCI AC World ex U.S. 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Barclays US Agency 1.0% 0.2% MSCI EAFE (net) 0.7% -0.3% 0.9% Barclays US Mortgage-Backed 1.6% -0.2% MSCI Europe 2.2% 1.9% 0.3% Barclays US Commercial MBS 1.3% 0.7% MSCI Japan -5.5% -7.4% 1.9% Barclays US Asset-Backed 0.5% 0.2% MSCI Pacific ex-Japan 3.0% 0.6% 2.4% Barclays US Corporate 2.9% 0.7% MSCI Emerging Markets -0.4% -0.5% 0.1% Barclays US High Yield 3.0% 2.0% MSCI EAFE Small Cap 3.4% 2.3% 1.1% Barclays Majors ex-US 3.2% 0.7% MSCI EAFE Value 1.3% 0.4% 1.0% Barclays Majors ex-US (Hedged) 2.3% -0.2% MSCI EAFE Growth 0.2% -0.7% 0.9% Barclays Emerging Markets 2.8% 1.3% HEDGE FUNDS Composite Conservative REAL ESTATE NCREIF NAREIT HFRI Fund-of-Funds 0.4% 1.1% 2.7% 8.5% YTD 2014 US EQUITIES Market Value Growth FIXED INCOME Total Excess S&P 500 1.8% Barclays Aggregate 1.8% 0.2% Russell Top 200® (Lrg Cap) 1.4% 2.1% 0.7% Russell MidCap® 3.5% 5.2% 2.0% T-Bills 0.0% … Russell 2000® (Sml Cap) 1.1% 1.8% 0.5% Barclays Intermediate Treasury 0.6% … Barclays Long Treasury 7.1% … NON-US EQUITIES US$ Local Currency Barclays US TIPS 1.9% … MSCI AC World 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% Barclays US Treasury 1.3% … MSCI AC World ex U.S. 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Barclays US Agency 1.0% 0.2% MSCI EAFE (net) 0.7% -0.3% 0.9% Barclays US Mortgage-Backed 1.6% -0.2% MSCI Europe 2.2% 1.9% 0.3% Barclays US Commercial MBS 1.3% 0.7% MSCI Japan -5.5% -7.4% 1.9% Barclays US Asset-Backed 0.5% 0.2% MSCI Pacific ex-Japan 3.0% 0.6% 2.4% Barclays US Corporate 2.9% 0.7% MSCI Emerging Markets -0.4% -0.5% 0.1% Barclays US High Yield 3.0% 2.0% MSCI EAFE Small Cap 3.4% 2.3% 1.1% Barclays Majors ex-US 3.2% 0.7% MSCI EAFE Value 1.3% 0.4% 1.0% Barclays Majors ex-US (Hedged) 2.3% -0.2% MSCI EAFE Growth 0.2% -0.7% 0.9% Barclays Emerging Markets 2.8% 1.3% HEDGE FUNDS Composite Conservative REAL ESTATE NCREIF NAREIT HFRI Fund-of-Funds 0.4% 1.1% 2.7% 8.5% Sources: Morningstar Direct, MSCI, Barclays Capital, HFR 1 Capital Markets US equities appreciated by First Quarter 2014 1.8% during the 1st quarter. 8% International equities continued 5.1% 6% 4.6% to lag, posting positive yet muted 4% 1.5% performance, appreciating by 0.8% 2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6%. Top – line performance 0% masked two distinct market -2% 0.2% - -4% regimes, as equities depreciated -6% 3.5% - in late January / early February 4.5% -8% - before rallying significantly later January February March in the quarter. Equity markets lost value in reaction to concerns S&P 500 MSCI AC World ex-US Barclays Aggregate about an apparent softening Source: Morningstar Direct among global economic indicators. Equity markets rallied strongly in February before moderating in March. Though equity performance was generally muted in March, trends that had been apparent over the past several months reversed, including Emerging Markets out – performance relative to Developed Markets, US Large Cap stocks out – performing small cap stocks, and sector rotation within US equity markets. The Barclays Aggregate rose by 1.8% during the quarter, offsetting the majority of 2013’s losses (the Index achieved a negative 2.0% total return in 2013). Interest rates fell in response to an apparent pick – up in equity volatility in Calendar YTD 2014 January, leading to a significant 5% positive appreciation in the Barclays Aggregate, which appreciated by 1.5% during the month. Returns were muted 1.8% 1.8% later in the quarter as rates remained lower amid a 0.6% generally benign environment for 0% bonds. S&P 500 MSCI AC World ex- Barclays Aggregate US Source: Morningstar Direct 2 U.S. Equity Markets The S&P posted a positive 1.8% return S&P 500 Price Index: First Quarter 2014 1900 for the quarter. The Index lost approximately 5% in late January / early February as volatility spiked 1850 significantly from subdued levels. S&P 500 implied volatility spiked by 65% 1800 over this period, as markets traded down significantly. To provide some 1750 context, Q1 losses rivaled the largest drawdown of 2013 (6% resulting from 1700 “taper talk”) as markets traded in a more choppy manner. Markets rallied by over 6% over the remainder of 1650 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar February as investors reacted positively Source: Standard & Poor's to Janet Yellen’s first formal testimony to Congress and to positive US employment data. March performance was positive but muted, as investors weighed the impact of Russia’s entrance into the Ukraine and a seeming improvement in economic growth. S&P 500 companies continue to perform well, as Q4/2013 operating earnings hit a new record, surpassing $107 per share. Large cap stocks out – performed small cap companies during the quarter, reversing a trend of significant small cap out – performance in 2013. Small Cap and Growth names suffered in late March, as investors rotated away from riskier names, specifically including high – growth momentum names. Value as a style out – performed growth, most notably among higher yielding Utilities names. Russell Indexes: First Quarter 2014 10% 5.2% 5% 3.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0% Russell Top Russell Russell Top 200® Top 200® Midcap® Midcap® 2000® 2000® 200® Midcap® 2000® Growth Value Growth Value Growth Value (Large) (Small) Source: Morningstar Direct 3 International Equity Markets MSCI Indexes: First Quarter 2014 5% 3.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -5% -5.5% -7.4% -10% AC World ex-U.S. EAFE (net) Europe Japan Pacific ex-Japan Emerging Markets Source: MSCI US Dollar Local Currency International markets were flat as the MSCI AC World ex-US Index appreciated by 0.2% during the quarter. USD depreciation relative to other currencies was generally supportive to investors in US Dollar terms. Developed markets continued to out – perform emerging markets during the quarter, as developed Europe posted the strongest returns, appreciating by 1.9% in local terms. Peripheral developed European countries were among the strongest performers as an apparent uptick in Eurozone economic growth and the prospect for the development of a European banking union drove markets higher. Greece, Ireland, and Italy were among the strongest performers, as each appreciated by over 14% during the quarter. Though the performance of core European markets was more muted, most earned positive returns with the exception of Germany and the U.K. Japan was a notable laggard during the quarter, depreciating by 7.4% in local terms. The potential for slower economic growth resulting from the April 1st increase in Japan’s consumption tax weighed on performance. Emerging Markets continued to be weighed MSCI Indexes: YTD 2014 down by a combination of several factors. (Returns in US Dollars) st 4% During the 1 quarter, Russia declined by 3.4% 9.7% in local terms. China was another 3% notable laggard during the quarter, losing 5.8% of value on continued concerns about 2% trajectory of future economic growth. 1.3% 1% 0.7% Small Cap International stocks out – 0.2% performed Large Cap stocks as did Value 0% EAFE EAFE Small EAFE Value EAFE Growth stocks relative to their Growth counterparts. Cap Source: MSCI 4 Equity Sectors Sector Performance: First Quarter 2014 15% 10.1% 10% 6.5% 5.8% 5.4% 5% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% - - - 1.3% - 1.4% - 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% - - -5% - Consumer Consumer Energy Financials Health Industrials Info. Materials Telecom. Utilities Discret. Staples Care Technology Srvcs. S&P 500 MSCI EAFE (Local Currency) Source: Morningstar Direct Defensive sectors within the S&P 500 and the MSCI EAFE out – performed during the quarter; as concerns about uneven economic growth filtered into equity market performance. This is most evident in the performance of the Utilities and Health Care sectors. Declining fixed income yields appeared to support Utilities performance as investors searching for yield renewed their interest in the sector. Health Care also posted strong returns. Within the S&P 500, Merck and Johnson & Johnson were among top five contributors to Q1 S&P 500 performance.
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