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2014 3Rd Quarter Investment Performance

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2014 3Rd Quarter Investment Performance PERSPECTIVE FOCUS INTEGRITY ADAMS COUNTY RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION REPORT SEPTEMBER 30, 2014 Watershed Investment Consultants, Inc. 6400 S. Fiddler’s Green Circle, Suite 500 Greenwood Village, CO 80111-4955 303.738.0300 www.watershedinvest.com CAPITAL MARKET RETURNS Third Quarter 2014 US EQUITIES Market Value Growth FIXED INCOME Total Excess S&P 500 1.1% Barclays Aggregate 0.2% -0.3% Russell Top 200® (Lrg Cap) 1.7% 0.9% 2.5% Russell MidCap® -1.7% -2.7% -0.7% T-Bills 0.0% … Russell 2000® (Sml Cap) -7.4% -8.6% -6.1% Barclays Intermediate Treasury 0.0% … Barclays Long Treasury 2.7% … NON-US EQUITIES US$ Local Currency Barclays US TIPS -2.0% … MSCI AC World -2.2% 0.9% -3.1% Barclays US Treasury 0.3% … MSCI AC World ex U.S. -5.2% 0.9% -6.0% Barclays US Agency 0.2% -0.0% MSCI EAFE (net) -5.9% 0.9% -6.8% Barclays US Mortgage-Backed 0.2% -0.3% MSCI Europe -7.0% -0.2% -6.8% Barclays US Commercial MBS -0.2% -0.4% MSCI Japan -2.2% 5.9% -8.1% Barclays US Asset-Backed 0.0% -0.0% MSCI Pacific ex-Japan -5.9% -0.9% -5.0% Barclays US Corporate -0.1% -0.7% MSCI Emerging Markets -3.4% 0.7% -4.1% Barclays US High Yield -1.9% -2.0% MSCI EAFE Small Cap -7.8% -1.2% -6.6% Barclays Majors ex-US -5.5% -6.5% MSCI EAFE Value -6.1% 0.6% -6.7% Barclays Majors ex-US (Hedged) 2.0% 1.0% MSCI EAFE Growth -5.5% 1.4% -6.9% Barclays Emerging Markets -0.8% -1.1% HEDGE FUNDS Composite Conservative REAL ESTATE NCREIF NAREIT HFRI Fund-of-Funds 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% -2.5% Calendar Year-to-Date 2014 US EQUITIES Market Value Growth FIXED INCOME Total Excess S&P 500 8.3% Barclays Aggregate 4.1% 0.4% Russell Top 200® (Lrg Cap) 8.5% 8.1% 8.9% Russell MidCap® 6.9% 8.2% 5.7% T-Bills 0.0% … Russell 2000® (Sml Cap) -4.4% -4.7% -4.1% Barclays Intermediate Treasury 1.6% … Barclays Long Treasury 15.1% … NON-US EQUITIES US$ Local Currency Barclays US TIPS 3.7% … MSCI AC World 4.2% 6.7% -2.5% Barclays US Treasury 3.1% … MSCI AC World ex U.S. 0.4% 5.3% -4.9% Barclays US Agency 2.4% 0.5% MSCI EAFE (net) -1.4% 4.1% -5.5% Barclays US Mortgage-Backed 4.2% 0.4% MSCI Europe -1.4% 5.2% -6.6% Barclays US Commercial MBS 2.4% 0.8% MSCI Japan -1.4% 3.0% -4.3% Barclays US Asset-Backed 1.3% 0.5% MSCI Pacific ex-Japan 1.2% 2.7% -1.5% Barclays US Corporate 5.6% 0.7% MSCI Emerging Markets 2.7% 5.5% -2.7% Barclays US High Yield 3.5% 1.3% MSCI EAFE Small Cap -2.5% 2.6% -5.1% Barclays Majors ex-US 0.1% -5.2% MSCI EAFE Value -0.1% 5.2% -5.4% Barclays Majors ex-US (Hedged) 6.2% 0.8% MSCI EAFE Growth -1.9% 3.7% -5.6% Barclays Emerging Markets 6.6% 3.0% HEDGE FUNDS Composite Conservative REAL ESTATE NCREIF NAREIT HFRI Fund-of-Funds 2.4% 2.7% 8.5% 13.4% Sources: Morningstar Direct, MSCI, Barclays Capital, HFR 1 Capital Markets Third Quarter 2014 Capital markets volatility picked up 6% rd 4.0% during the 3 quarter from previously 4% subdued levels. Volatility was 1.1% 2% 0.6% pronounced within commodities and 0% currencies, as investors reacted to the -2% 0.3% - 0.7% - 1.0% - 1.4% 1.4% - prospect for rate hikes in the U.S. and -4% - an apparent slow – down in -6% 4.8% international economies. Equity -8% - July August September performance was mixed, as U.S. equities generally out – performed S&P 500 MSCI AC World ex-US Barclays Aggregate their international counterparts. Source: Morningstar Direct Global interest rates continued to grind lower, supporting fixed income returns. Global growth expectations and global central bank policies continue to drive capital markets performance. Indications suggest that the U.S. continues on a path of slow but steady economic growth, whereas international economic growth looks to be more challenging. It appears as though concerns about the timing and trajectory of Fed Funds hikes drove U.S. performance, whereas concerns about an apparent slowdown in Europe and Japan, as well as Chinese economic growth, influenced international markets performance. U.S. stocks continue to out – perform international markets, appreciating by Calendar YTD 2014 10% 8.3% on a year – to – date basis. 8.3% International markets (as highlighted by the MSCI AC World ex US Index) 5% 4.1% are roughly flat. Local returns have been negatively impacted by USD 0.4% appreciation, which has detracted 0% 4.9% from returns. Fixed Income, as S&P 500 MSCI AC World Barclays Aggregate measured by the Barclays Aggregate ex-US Source: Morningstar Direct Index, has appreciated by 4.1% through 9/30/14. 2 U.S. Equity Markets The S&P 500 ended the quarter at 1972 S&P 500 Price Index: Third Quarter 2014 2020 after reaching an all – time high of 2011 on 2000 September, 18th. For the quarter, the S&P 1980 500 appreciated by 1.1%. The quarter was characterized by higher volatility, as the VIX 1960 rose by 41%, approaching levels last seen 1940 in 2012. Economic growth and Fed 1920 watching appears to have driven most of the 1900 S&P 500 volatility during the quarter, as 1880 investors weighed the degree to which 1860 economic growth would alter the nature and 1840 timing of future Fed Fund rate increases. 30-Jun 31-Jul 31-Aug 30-Sep Source: Standard & Poor's During the quarter, good economic news often – times led to market losses as investors assigned a higher probability to future rate increases. Large cap stocks continue to out – perform small cap stocks, as evidenced by the disparity between the performance in the Russell 200 Index and the Russell 2000 Index. The 3rd quarter represents the 7th straight quarter of Russell 200 out – performance and the largest quarter of out – performance since 2000. Though not highlighted graphically, defensive – oriented names out – performed during the quarter. Generally speaking, Low Beta, High ROE factors performed better than their counterparts. In contrast, companies that derived significant revenues internationally under – performed as investors weighed the impact of weakening international economic growth and future USD appreciation on future earnings. Russell Indexes: Third Quarter 2014 4% 2.5% 1.7% 2% 0.9% 0% -2% -0.7% -1.7% -4% -2.6% -6% -8% -6.1% -7.4% -10% -8.6% Russell Top Russell Russell Top 200® Top 200® Midcap® Midcap® 2000® 2000® 200® Midcap® 2000® Growth Value Growth Value Growth Value (Large) (Small) Source: Morningstar Direct 3 International Equity Markets MSCI Indexes: Third Quarter 2014 8% 5.9% 6% 4% 2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0% -0.2% -2% -0.9% -4% -2.2% -3.4% -6% -5.2% -5.9% -5.9% -8% -7.0% AC World ex-U.S. EAFE (net) Europe Japan Pacific ex-Japan Emerging Markets Source: MSCI US Dollar Local Currency International markets returns were generally muted in local terms with the exception of Japan, which appreciated by 5.9% despite a severe contraction in 2nd quarter GDP growth. All regions’ currencies depreciated relative to the U.S. Dollar, with the impact most pronounced among Developed International markets. Currency depreciation was due to some combination of higher prospective US economic growth, the prospect for rising rates and the defensive nature of market action during the quarter. Europe was impacted by the combination of continued tension between the European Union and Russia over Ukraine and an apparent slowing of economic growth, with particular concerns about the potential for a contraction in German economic growth. Peripheral European countries were among the most impacted, as Greece and Portugal posted losses of more than 20% in USD during the quarter. Political tension continued to impact Emerging MSCI Indexes: Third Quarter 2014 Markets countries as Hungary, Turkey and (Returns in US Dollars) Russia lost more than 10% in USD terms during 0% the quarter. Latin America as a region was the -2% best performer within Emerging Markets, buoyed by Mexico, which earned positive -4% returns in response to continued positive -6% -5.5% -5.9% -6.1% momentum from recent economic reforms. -8% Emerging Asia posted mixed results, as China, -7.8% -10% India and Indonesia posted positive returns, EAFE EAFE Small EAFE Value EAFE whereas South Korea and Taiwan lost value. Cap Growth Source: MSCI 4 Equity Sectors Sector Performance: Third Quarter 2014 15% 10% 8.0% 7.3% 7.3% 5.5% 5.5% 4.8% 4.8% 5% 3.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0% -5% -0.2% -1.1% -1.1% -1.6% -1.6% -2.6% -2.6% -4.0% -4.0% -10% -5.2% -8.6% -8.6% -15% Consumer Consumer Energy Financials Health Industrials Info. Materials Telecom. Utilities Discret. Staples Care Technology Srvcs. S&P 500 MSCI EAFE (Local Currency) Source: Morningstar Direct Performance was mixed for U.S. and International sectors. Generally speaking, economically sensitive sectors, including Industrials, Materials and Energy under – performed as investors weighed the impact of falling economic growth across Europe and Asia.
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