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Top Stocks for 2019 Disclaimer TOP STOCKS FOR 2019 DISCLAIMER SumZero is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer, and is not licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. There is no requirement that any of our Information Providers be registered investment advisors or broker-dealers. Nothing published or made available by or through SumZero should be considered personalized investment advice, investment services or a solicitation to BUY, SELL, or HOLD any securities or other investments mentioned by SumZero or the Information Providers. Never invest based purely on our publication or information, which is provided on an “as is” basis without representations. Past performance is not indicative of future results. YOU SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS, DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE AND/OR SEEK YOUR OWN PROFESSIONAL ADVISOR AND CONSIDER THE INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES AND RISKS AND YOUR OWN NEEDS AND GOALS BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTMENT DOES NOT GUARANTEE A POSITIVE RETURN AS STOCKS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPAL. You further acknowledge that SumZero, the Information Providers or their respective affiliates, employers, employees, officers, members, managers and directors, may or may not hold positions in one or more of the securities in the Information and may trade at any time, without notification to you, based on the information they are providing and will not necessarily disclose this information to subscribers, nor the time the positions in the securities were acquired. You confirm that you have read and understand, and agree to, our full disclaimer and terms of use, a copy of which can be accessed by clicking here and that neither SumZero nor any of its Information Providers is in any way responsible for any investment losses you may incur under any circumstances. All content and material within in this document is the exclusive intellectual property of SumZero, Inc., and may not be reproduced without the prior written permission of SumZero, Inc. WWW.SUMZERO.COM 2 The 95 submissions entered into this year’s Challenge were independently assessed ABOUT THE and voted on by a panel of 25 senior fund professionals and asset allocators. The following, multi-factor criteria was utilized TOP STOCKS to determine the Winners: VALIDITY OF THE THESIS CHALLENGE STRENGTH OF THE SUPPORTING ARGUMENT The ideas featured within this report were selected as the FEASIBILITY OF THE TRADE 15 Winners and Finalists of the 3rd Top Stocks Challenge, an annual investment research competition hosted ORIGINALITY by SumZero, a global platform of nearly 17K buyside investment professionals. SumZero members are investment professionals working at hedge funds, private equity funds, mutual funds, and family offices or are investment professionals with substantial prior fund experience. The complete research history of individuals featured in this report, as well as bios, and work history can be found on the SumZero database. WWW.SUMZERO.COM 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS SPECIAL SITUATIONS ................................................................................................................ 5 WINNER: ECHOSTAR CORP A (SATS:US) BY NITIN SACHETI ........................................................ 6 FINALIST: ECN CAPITAL CORP (ECN:CN) BY ADRIAN WARNER ..................................................12 FINALIST: EXELIXIS INC COM (EXEL:US) BY ERIC GREGG .......................................................... 22 MICRO CAPS ............................................................................................................................... 30 WINNER: ROADRUNNER TRANSPORTATION SY (RRTS:US) BY HYUNG CHOI ............................. 31 FINALIST: MAJESTIC WINE PLC (WINE:LN) BY BRAD HATHAWAY ............................................. 42 FINALIST: XLMEDIA PLC ORD (XLM:LN) BY ANDREAS HENNES ................................................. 52 SMALL CAPS ............................................................................................................................... 58 WINNER: APHRIA INC (APHQF:US) BY GABRIEL GREGO ........................................................... 59 FINALIST: TRUPANION INC COM (TRUP:US) BY JOSEPH FRANKENFIELD .................................. 77 FINALIST: TAILORED BRANDS INC COM (TLRD:US) BY R. J. RHODES ........................................ 93 MID CAPS ...................................................................................................................................100 WINNER: BURFORD CAPITAL LTD ORD (BUR:LN) BY ARTEM FOKIN .........................................101 FINALIST: METRO BANK PLC ORD (MTRO:LN) BY BENJAMIN PINKAS .......................................117 FINALIST: SLM CORP (SLM:US) BY ROGELIO REA .....................................................................123 LARGE CAPS ............................................................................................................................. 133 WINNER: FACEBOOK INC CL A (FB:US) BY JOHN HUBER ......................................................... 134 FINALIST: SK HYNIX INC (000660:KS) BY VASU KASIBHOTLA ................................................. 141 FINALIST: LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC A (LBTYA:US) BY TOLULOPE BUKOLA .................................. 150 WWW.SUMZERO.COM 4 SPECIAL SITUATIONS Special situation opportunities with a tangible trigger event. Potential catalysts include bankruptcy, spin-offs, litigation, regulatory changes, etc. WINNER SPECIAL SITUATIONS Nitin Sacheti Portfolio Manager at Papyrus Capital BADGES: Echostar Corp RETURN TO DATE: 12.94% Asset: Equity Symbol: SATS:US Idea Posted: 12/20/18 Idea Updated: 12/25/18 EXPECTED RETURN: 366.01% ATTACHMENTS TIMEFRAME SITUATION MARKET CAP LONG 2-5 Years Event / Spec. 1.7B USD Sit Best IP in the satellite space at 3.5x EBITDA on core business with additional free options worth more than the current EV About NitinAbout SachetiMorgan Housel Prior to founding Papyrus Capital, Nitin was a Senior Analyst with Equity Contribution at Charter Bridge Capital where he managed the firm’s investments in the technology, media, and telecom sectors. Nitin was also responsible for select consumer investments. Prior to Charter Bridge, Nitin was a Senior Analyst at Cobalt Capital where he focused on technology, media and telecom investments. Nitin has 12 years of buy-side experience, having begun his investment career in 2006 at Ampere Capital Management, a consumer, media, telecom and technology focused investment firm, initially as a Junior Analyst, rising to Assistant Portfolio Manager. Nitin graduated from the University of Chicago with a BA in Economics and was a visiting undergraduate student in Economics at Harvard University. About Papyrus Capital Papyrus Capital is an investment adviser focused on compounding partner capital by investing in mispriced public securities, mostly equities, with an emphasis on intrinsic value generation over time. WWW.SUMZERO.COM 6 Echostar Corp a Pricing & Return Details LONG Asset Class: Equity Symbol: SATS:US Updated: 12/24/2018 Submitted: 12/21/2018 EXPECTED RETURN 366.01% TARGET PRICE 181.00 USD BY: BADGES: Nitin Sacheti INITIAL PRICE 34.39 USD FORMERLY AT: Papyrus Capital Best IP in the satellite space at 3.5x EBITDA on core business with additional free options worth more than the current EV SITUATION: CATALYSTS: ASSET CLASS: TARGET ALLOCATION: TIMEFRAME: Event / Special M&A/Buyout Equity 10%+ 2-5 Years Situations Target and 1 more INVESTMENT THESIS ECHOSTAR (SATS) – EXTREMELY CHEAP WITH WHY IS SATS MISVALUED? ADDITIONAL FREE OPTIONS There are a ton of stocks down 40% YTD, just like SATS but many of those are cyclical/levered/impaired in a trade war. SATS is none of these things. Its core business is THESIS stable/predictable and almost a utility (broadband with no competition), its current cash flows are almost entirely Echostar (SATS) offers the opportunity to invest in: domestic and it has very little net debt. It’s down mainly 1. A predictable core business at a very attractive multiple because of high hedge fund ownership. One $1bln fund closed (3.5x EBITDA on the core business) down abruptly and liquidated its SATS position, taking it 2. With significant upside due to multiple hidden assets, from $58 to 50. Another from the high $40s~mid $40s and a mutual fund took it from the mid $40s to the high $30s. This 3. Run by a talented owner/manager, Charlie Ergen. is all forced selling based on redemptions/liquidations which presents us with an incredible opportunity. We believe the core operating business is worth $88 (146% upside). Should certain strategic options play out the company would be worth $197/share, offering 446% upside. WWW.SUMZERO.COM 7 PREDICTABLE CORE BUSINESS AT AN They have only scratched the surface as it relates to worldwide consumer broadband demand since SATS ATTRACTIVE MULTIPLE: ECHOSTAR and VSAT are the only companies offering this service. OPERATES THREE MAJOR CORE • 5G WIRELESS – MASSIVELY CHANGING BUSINESSES LANDSCAPE: What is 5G – in a nutshell, an ultra-fast wireless standard that requires a densified network – 1. KA-BAND JUPITER SATELLITES - THE i.e. more wireless towers along with small cell wireless towers attached to lampposts and in buildings. 5G is CROWN JEWEL OF SATS (FIRST MAJOR CORE also all about backhaul – when we densify wireless BUSINESS) networks with so many more radios, we need to ‘trunk’ that data back through to the datacenters. Trunking Over the past several years, a technology shift has is accomplished through fiber/cable in large cities
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