North Korea 2012 on the Threshold of Power, 2011/12 Pyongyang’S Politics of Transition

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North Korea 2012 on the Threshold of Power, 2011/12 Pyongyang’S Politics of Transition Vol.20, No.2, 2011 ISSN 1229-6902 Special Issue Jin-Ha Kim North Korea 2012 On The Threshold Of Power, 2011/12 Pyongyang’s Politics of Transition Kibum Han North Korea’s South Korea Policy: An Evaluation of Determining Variables and Prospects for 2012 Vol.20, No.2, 2011 Mimura Mitsuhiro Outlook for North Korean Economic Reform and Marketization Young Sun Jeon Diagnosis and Assessment of North Korea's Sociocultural Sector in 2012 Christopher A. Ford Stalemate and Beyond: The North Korean Nuclear Impasse and Its Future Troy Stangarone & Nicholas Hamisevicz The Prospects for Economic Reform in North Korea after Kim Jong-il and the China Factor Webpage: http://www.kinu.or.kr International Journal of Korean Unification Studies Guideline for Manuscript Submission As the National Research Foundation of Korea’s • Books: John Smith, China’s Revolution: Rise Published biannually by the Korea Institute for National Unification registered journal as of 2009, The International and Fall (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Journal of Korean Unification Studies (ISSN NO. Press, 1992), p. 37. 1229–6902) is biannually published by Korea • Article: K. J. Holsti, “The Horseman of Publisher Taewoo Kim Institute for National Unification (KINU), a Apocalypse,” International Studies Quarterly, Editor-in-chief Kyuryoon Kim government-funded research institution in the Vol. XXX, No. 4 (Spring 1992). pp. 55–89. Republic of Korea specializing in areas of unifi- Editors Jinwook Choi, Young-Tae Jeung, Hyeong Jung Park, cation policy, North Korean studies as well as • Collection: Samuel S. Kim, “Pyongyang, the Jae-Jeok Park, Young-Ho Park international relations. Third World, and Global Politics,” in Tae- Assistant Editor Mikang Kim Hwan Kwak et. al (eds.), The Two Koreans in All articles published in the journal are subject World Politics (Seoul: Kyungnam University Copy Editor Meredith Shaw to review by relevant experts in the field before Press, 1990), pp. 20–21. they are accepted for publication. KINU has the • Newspaper: Joel Brinkley, “South Korea copyrights for all the articles published in The Offers Power if North Quits Arms Program,” Editorial Advisory Board International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, New York Times, July 13, 2005, p. A6. and it reserves the right to edit for space. The Eui Chul Choi Sunchon national Univeristy, Korea views expressed in the Journal are those of the • Dissertation: Adrew J. King, “Law and Land Dong-jin Chun Silla University, Korea individual contr ibutions and do not necessarily Use in Chicago: A Pre-history of Modern Li Ru Cui China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, China represent the views of KINU. Zoning” (PhD. diss., University of Wiscon- sin, 1976), pp. 32–37. Alexander Fedorovskiy Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS, Russia L. Gordon Flake The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, USA MANUSCRIPT • Website: Benedict Anderson, “From Miracle to Clash,” London Review of Books, Vol. 20, Michael J. Green Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA The author may submit articles for consideration No. 8, 1998, http://www.Irb.co.uk/v20n08 Hajime Izumi University of Shizuoka, Japan via E-Mail at [email protected]. The deadlines /2008.html. 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Domestic (individual & institution) 20,000 Won Overseas (individual & institution) US$30 (by airmail) Submissions should be prepared to adhere to International Journal of Korean Unification Studies * The rates are subject to change without notice. the following reference format conventions: Korea Institute for National Unification 1307, Hancheonro (Suyu-dong), Gangbuk-gu, A. Footnotes: Seoul 142-728, Republic of Korea ISSN 1229-6902 a) Footnotes should be appended at the end Tel: (82-2) 9012 658 Publication Date: December 31, 2011 of each page of the manuscript. Fax: (82-2) 9012 545 E-Mail: [email protected] Copyright © 2011 by the Korea Institute for National Unification, Seoul, Republic of Korea b) The first citation of a reference should Webpage: http://www.kinu.or.kr/eng Printed by dooildesign (TEL: (82-2) 2285 0936 FAX: (82-2) 2285 0938) appear as follows: International Journal of Korean Unification Studies 2011 Vol. 20, No. 2 CONTENTS On The Threshold of Power, 2011/12 Pyongyang’s Politics of Transition Jin-Ha Kim ........ 1 North Korea’s South Korea Policy: An Evaluation of Determining Variables and Prospects for 2012 Kibum Han ...... 27 Outlook for North Korean Economic Reform and Marketization Mimura Mitsuhiro ...... 69 Diagnosis and Assessment of North Korea’s Sociocultural Sector in 2012 Young Sun Jeon ...... 91 Stalemate and Beyond: The North Korean Nuclear Impasse and Its Future Christopher A. Ford .... 121 The Prospects for Economic Reform in North Korea after Kim Jong-il and the China Factor Troy Stangarone & Nicholas Hamisevicz .... 175 Contributors Jin-Ha Kim is a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU). He was formerly a visiting professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS). Dr. Kim received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago in 2009. His research interests lie in comparative authoritarianism, bureaucratic dictatorships, post-socialist transitions, and the political economy of North Korea. His recent works on North Korea include “Crisis of Succession: Mapping the Paths into and out of the Personalist Dictatorship in North Korea,” EAI-ASI Working Paper (November 2011); “North Korea’s Leadership Structure and Post-Socialist Transition: Compared with the Cases of Vietnam and Romania” (in Korean and co-authored with Moon-Hee Song), Unification Policy Studies, Vol. 20, No. 1 (June 2011); “Reopening the Six-Party Talks: Prospects and North Korea’s Likely Negotiating Strategies Following the U.S.-China Summit” (in Korean), KDI Review of the North Korean Economy (May 2011); and “North Korea’s Succession Plan: Stability and Future Outlook,” Ilmin Working Paper, No. 8 (December 2010). He can be reached at [email protected]. Kibum Han is a visiting fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), and has been an adjunct professor in the Department of North Korean Studies at Korea University since September 2011. He was for- merly a deputy executive director at the National Intelligence Service. Dr. Han received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Kyungnam University in Seoul, Korea in 2009. The title of his doctoral dissertation was Organiza- tional Behavior and Bureaucratic Politics in North Korea’s Decision- making Process: Expansion and Retreat of Economic Reform, 2000–2009. His research interests include North Korean internal politics, inter-Korean relations, and South Korea’s policy toward the North. He can be reached at [email protected]. Mimura Mitsuhiro is a senior research fellow and the director of the research division of the Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA) in Niigata, Japan. He has written a number of papers on the North Korean economy, North Korean law, the inter-Korean relationship, and Northeast Asian economic cooperation. Through collaboration with scholars and policy makers and frequent visits to North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, the EU, and the U.S., his research provides excellent insight into Northeast Asia. He co-authored Keizai Kara Mita Kitachosen [North Korea from an economic viewpoint] (Tokyo: Akashi- Shoten, 2010); Modernization and Opening-Up of North Korean Economy: Roles and Efforts of Neighboring Countries (Seoul: KINU, 2009); and Kitachosen to Ningen no Anzen Hosho [North Korea and Human Security] (Tokyo: Keio University Press, 2009). He earned his Ph.D. and M.A. degrees from the Graduate School of Law at Osaka University in Japan and his B.A.
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