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China Logistics Sector Industrials / China 16 December 2013 Initiation: ready to move up in China Logistics Sector the world Positive (initiation) • We see the development of China’s logistics industry in the next Neutral decade following the path established by the US, Japan and Korea Negative • Given a growing need for cost savings, emerging 3PL services and a demand boost from e-commerce should be major sector drivers • Positive rating; top pick Sinotrans; also recommend SZI, CIMC See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 60 Industrials / China 16 December 2013 Initiation: ready to move up in China Logistics Sector the world Positive (initiation) • We see the development of China’s logistics industry in the next Neutral decade following the path established by the US, Japan and Korea Negative • Given a growing need for cost savings, emerging 3PL services and a demand boost from e-commerce should be major sector drivers • Positive rating; top pick Sinotrans; also recommend SZI, CIMC management to maintain their International Marine Containers margins. (CIMC) (2039 HK) with a Buy (1) call and six-month target price of HKD20. E-commerce should spur SZI and CIMC should benefit from demand. The increasing popularity their landbanks in Qianhai, which we Kelvin Lau of e-commerce, especially in the estimate are worth HKD0.6/share (852) 2848 4467 business-to-consumer (B2C) and HKD6.6/share to their respective [email protected] segment, has created new demand NAVs. for logistic services. We believe the David Lum, CFA bottleneck in developing countries We reaffirm our Buy call on SITC (65) 6329 2102 [email protected] such as China is in the logistics flow International, and our from order to delivery. Outperform on Global Logistic Properties. ■ Investment case Large integrators likely to be We see strong demand-growth established. Big integrators like ■ Risks potential in the China Logistics DHL, Fedex and UPS dominate The main risk would be Sector over the next decade, as logistics in the US, while Nippon manufacturers moving from China companies will have to find ways to Express and Yamato are the big to ASEAN, followed by competition reduce costs to counter the impact of players in Japan. We believe a few from foreign logistics players in a slowdown in economic growth. In large integrators are poised to China, and weaker-than-expected addition, we expect new demand to emerge in China. economic growth in China. emerge from e-commerce, continuing industry migration ■ What we recommend inland, and rising domestic We recommend that investors Key stock calls consumption. We initiate coverage capitalise on China’s logistics growth New Prev. of the sector with a Positive rating. wave that we believe has just begun, Sinotrans (598 HK) Rating Buy and invest in the sector to benefit from a likely long-term rerating. Target 3.30 ■ Catalysts Upside 38.7% With reference to the development SITC International (1308 HK) of the logistics industries in Japan, Our top pick is Sinotrans (598 HK) Rating Buy Buy Korea, and the US, we expect to see and we initiate coverage with a Buy Target 4.00 3.20 the following trends in China. (1) rating and six-month target price Upside 25% of HKD3.30. The company is the Shenzhen International (152 HK) Emergence of third-party leading freight forwarder in China Rating Buy logistics (3PL) services. We and we expect it to be rerated on the Target 1.30 believe 3PL services will be a trend in back of rising 3PL services demand. Upside 35.4% China in the next decade, as Daiwa Global Logistic Properties (GLP SP) Rating Outperform Outperform expects top-line growth for most We also like Shenzhen International (SZI) (152 HK) given Target 3.320 3.320 China companies to slow and cost Upside 14.9% inflation, especially for labour, to its plan to develop several integrated logistics hubs, and initiate coverage China International Marine Containers (2039 HK) continue. Thus, we believe more Rating Buy companies will outsource logistics with a Buy (1) call and target price of Target 20.00 HKD1.30. We initiate coverage on Upside 33.5% logistics equipment provider China Source: Daiwa forecasts. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 60 China Logistics Sector 16 December 2013 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg China International Marine Containers 2039 HK 14.98 Buy 20.00 0.674 0.918 China Merchants Holding International 144 HK 28.10 Buy Buy 31.00 31.00 0.0% 1.564 1.564 0.0% 1.879 1.879 0.0% Global Logistic Properties GLP SP 2.890 Outperform Outperform 3.320 3.320 0.0% 0.121 0.121 0.0% 0.130 0.130 0.0% Orient Overseas International 316 HK 38.95 Outperform Outperform 52.00 52.00 0.0% 0.300 0.300 0.0% 0.420 0.420 0.0% Shenzhen International 152 HK 0.96 Buy 1.30 0.126 0.148 Sinotrans 598 HK 2.38 Buy 3.30 0.185 0.225 SITC International 1308 HK 3.20 Buy Buy 4.00 3.20 25.0% 0.043 0.041 4.3% 0.062 0.060 4.0% Source: Daiwa forecasts - 3 - China Logistics Sector 16 December 2013 Contents Rising need for better logistics services in China ........................................................................ 5 Efficiency has not been a focus ................................................................................................. 5 Increasing demand due to structural economic changes ........................................................ 6 The logistics market in China ................................................................................................... 7 China, the next boom logistics market in Asia........................................................................... 10 Considerable room to cut logistics costs ................................................................................ 10 Reforms in the logistics industry are needed ......................................................................... 11 3PL services should be the future in China ............................................................................ 12 E-commerce should provide a strong demand boost ............................................................. 13 Large integrators dominate .................................................................................................... 14 Structural changes in China ....................................................................................................... 16 Shift to inland provinces should continue .............................................................................. 16 Domestic consumption looks set to boost demand ................................................................ 16 Better logistics facilities needed ............................................................................................. 17 Key stock calls ............................................................................................................................. 18 Theme 1: buy the logistics operators ...................................................................................... 18 Theme 2: buy the logistics-park operators ............................................................................. 18 Theme 3: buy equipment players .......................................................................................... 20 Risks to our call ...................................................................................................................... 20 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................... 21 Company Section Sinotrans ................................................................................................................................ 22 SITC International ................................................................................................................. 29 Shenzhen International ......................................................................................................... 32 Global Logistic Properties ...................................................................................................... 42 China International Marine Containers ................................................................................ 48 - 4 - China Logistics Sector 16 December 2013 China: express volume (1999-present) (m) 150% 900 130% 800 110% 700 90% 600 70% 500 Rising need for better 50% 400 30% 300 logistics services in 10% 200 -10% 100 -30% 0 -04 -06 -09 -11 China r-11 g p g p p Jul-02 Jul-07 Jul-12 Apr-01 Apr-06 A Oct-03 Oct-08 Oct-13 Jan-00 Jun-00 Jan-05 Jun-05 Jan-10 Jun-10 Mar-04 Feb-02 Mar-09 Feb-07 Feb-12 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Se Au Nov-00 Sep-01 Au Nov-05 Se Nov-10 May-03 May-08 May-13 There will have to be an improvement in Ex press units, unit mn (RHS) YoY % Growth (LHS) Source: CEIC logistics-management efficiency to Note: The calculation method was changed in 2008 compensate for a slowdown in top-line growth and rising labour costs in China, Profit driven by strong demand growth in our view. As mentioned, reducing logistics costs by improving efficiency was not a major focus from 1980-90. The high net-profit growth generated by China Efficiency has not been a focus manufacturers was driven by the country’s strong economic growth, due partly to robust exports. China’s better manufacturing net-profit margins at that time Strong trade-volume growth since
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