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The role of gas infrastructure for integrating offshore wind in the North Sea region Floor van Dam The role of gas infrastructure for integrating offshore wind in the North Sea region Analysing different energy visions in the North Sea region by F. van Dam to obtain the degree of Master of Science at the Delft University of Technology, to be defended publicly on Monday March 1, 2021 at 13:00 PM. Student number: 4388143 Project duration: A total of 40 weeks from April 2020 to February, 2021 Thesis committee: Dr. A. Correljé, TU Delft, first supervisor Dr. L.M. Kamp, TU Delft, second supervisor Ir. P. Stapersma, CIEP, daily company supervisor Ir. T. Rodhouse, TU Delft, daily TU Delft supervisor An electronic version of this thesis is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/. Preface Throughout my Bachelor applied physics and Master’s in Sustainable Energy Technology, I have always been interested in technology and the economic, political and geographical context they are placed into. Therefore, I have thoroughly enjoyed exploring the complexity and multidimensionality of our energy system during this research; figuratively peeling through several of its layers, be it an onion. I would not have been able to deliver this thesis without the help of my supervisors. I am very grateful for Pier Stapersma as my daily supervisor at Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP). Together with my other colleagues at CIEP (Coby, Kyle, Jasper, Jabbe, David and Wendy), I have enjoyed our discussions ranging from my thesis topic, current themes in the energy world and even more general political and economic issues. The setting of these discussions in Park Clingendael made this even more enjoyable, though sometimes restricted due to the COVID 19 pandemic. Furthermore, I would like to thank Toyah Rodhouse for her critical insights, especially regarding the theoretical elements of this study and her feedback on my writing. Together with my first supervisor, Aad Correljé, they have also helped me keep a critical and holistic mindset throughout the project. I would also like to thank both Kas Hemmes and Linda Kamp for being part of my thesis committee and for taking the time to read my thesis and giving valuable feedback. Furthermore, I would like to thank all experts that were able to take the time to discuss my research in interviews, which has led to some interesting insights. Last, I would like to thank my family and friends. They provided some necessary breaks, which helped me to stay motivated during the past months. In particular, I would like to thank my housemates. They were great company for working on a thesis during a pandemic. In addition, I would also like to thank my housemate Elsje Burgers for her valuable feedback on my report. F. van Dam Delft, February 2021 i Executive summary This research explores the different envisioned roles of gas infrastructure for integrating offshore wind into the energy system of the North Sea Region (NSR). In this research, the NSR is defined as con­ sisting of the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Norway, Denmark and the United Kingdom. The NSR is characterised by the increasing use of their considerable offshore wind potential, its current decom­ missioning developments of coal and nuclear energy, and its history in supplying, transporting and consuming natural gas. Within the NSR, there are different visions on how to integrate and leverage the full potential of offshore wind. This research focuses on how these coexisting visions can be made more compatible; by being able to exist or occur together without problems or conflict. Of particular interest to us due to its large economic benefit is the repurposing of gas infrastructure. We aim to answer the following question: Focused on gas infrastructure as a solution for integrating offshore wind, how can the coexisting energy visions in the North Sea region be made more compatible? This research is conducted using a theoretical framework called pattern modelling, provided by New Institutional Economics. In short, this pattern modelling framework takes a qualitative, abductive and holistic approach because analysis of the interrelated energy system is deemed essential for under­ standing the individual components. The contribution of this research is that the pattern modelling approach is combined with the method of inductively coding different energy visions. We define an energy vision as a “collectively held and performed vision of desirable and realistic futures for energy sources, technologies and systems in a specific geographically bounded area” [Rodhouse, 2018]. From these energy visions, important themes and their relationships in the energy system of the NSR are derived. In our research, published en­ ergy vision reports and strategies of several actors in the NSR are analysed, and several actors are interviewed. In this research, we take into account as actors the government, electricity and gas Trans­ mission System Operators (TSOs) and large industrial associations for each NSR country. Electricity and gas infrastructure are interrelated by electrolysers producing hydrogen gas using electricity and gas­fuelled power plants producing electricity. Focusing on the integration of offshore wind in the energy system and the envisioned role of gas infrastructure, this research initially identi­ fied several important themes in different energy visions, such as the locations envisioned for placing electrolysers. In short, these themes entail both technologies, infrastructure choices, socio­economic drivers, policies and regulations. Subsequently, this research concluded that some themes are envisioned differently by various ac­ tors. These differences lead to multiple types of (in)compatibility of the different envisioned future energy systems in the NSR. In order to answer our main research question, the current state of com­ patibility in the NSR is characterised. This is done by subdividing the different identified themes into four different groups with varying (in)compatibility levels termed ‘Group A. Celebrated themes’, ‘Group B. Themes where actors envision the same approach’, ‘Group C. Themes with competition between different types of approaches’ and ‘Group D. Themes where there is no co­existence possible’. A. Celebrated themes The first group contains themes on which actors have identical visions, which are collaborated upon (celebrated) in collaborative groups and associations. This is the most compatible group, because when actors collaborate, their visions are able to be executed together without problems or conflict. Several themes are celebrated by actors in the NSR. Most importantly, the recognised potential for offshore wind within the NSR is a celebrated theme. ii Preface iii B. Themes where actors envision the same approach The second group contains themes on which actors also have identical visions but which are not collaborated upon explicitly. In this case, there is a possibility of competition between actors, as they all aspire to gain a first­mover advantage. This group is relatively compatible because previous research shows that compared to a more collaborative approach, more regional competitive action can also allow more rapid experimentation and tailoring of policies and thus developments in general. However, the group is not as compatible as more collaborative actions at an (inter)national level also provide better coordination which leads to an increase in efficiency of a system. A theme considered part of this group is the role actors see for becoming a production, consumption and transit hub of hydrogen. Both competition and need for collaboration are identified, because to­ gether the NSR actors aspire to become hydrogen production (DK/NO/NL/UK), transport (NL/BE) and large consumption hubs (NL/DE). C. Themes with competition between different types of approaches The third group contains themes that are also relatively compatible because actors have different co­ existing visions and are in competition on the approach. Previous research concluded that a competitive approach allows for technological and regulatory experimentation, does not constrain ambitious front runners, is more robust to regulatory design errors, and is more adapted to the different preferences of actors. However, previous research showed there is a risk that actors do not consider the externalities they inflict on the whole system by optimising their own sub­system, leading to incompatibility. The following paragraphs highlight three themes defined in this research that are considered to be part of this group. The first theme is the consideration of ratios of gas and electricity consumption. Different con­ sideration of this ratio leads to different visions actors have on the infrastructure deemed necessary. Although, different consumption patterns in industry, mobility, and heating are identified between na­ tional regions, this research does not consider it problematic for infrastructure alignment due to most consumption differences occurring within a national scale. The second theme is the role of electrolysers envisioned for integrating offshore wind energy into the energy system. The existence of differing visions on this theme leads to actors seeing a different role for electrolysers in both capacity operation of electrolysers (ramping up and down or running at full capacity) and electrolyser location (nearby offshore wind production or hydrogen consumption). This co­existence of different ideas can be regarded as beneficial

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