Cyber, Intelligence, and Security
Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017
Jointness in Intelligence Organizations: Theory Put into Practice Kobi Michael, David Siman-Tov, and Oren Yoeli
The United States’ Cyber Warfare History: Implications on Modern Cyber Operational Structures and Policymaking Omry Haizler
Lessons Learned from the “Viral Caliphate”: Viral Effect as a New PSYOPS Tool? Miron Lakomy
An Intelligence Civil War: “HUMINT’” vs. “TECHINT” Matthew Crosston and Frank Valli
Israeli Cyberspace Regulation: A Conceptual Framework, Inherent Challenges, and Normative Recommendations Gabi Siboni and Ido Sivan-Sevilla
Artificial Intelligence in Cybersecurity Nadine Wirkuttis and Hadas Klein
Pedal to the Metal? The Race to Develop Secure Autonomous Cars Andrew Tabas
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017
Contents
Editor’s Foreword | 3
Jointness in Intelligence Organizations: Theory Put into Practice | 5 Kobi Michael, David Siman-Tov, and Oren Yoeli
The United States’ Cyber Warfare History: Implications on Modern Cyber Operational Structures and Policymaking | 31 Omry Haizler
Lessons Learned from the “Viral Caliphate”: Viral E"ect as a New PSYOPS Tool? | 47 Miron Lakomy
An Intelligence Civil War: “HUMINT’” vs. “TECHINT” | 67 Matthew Crosston and Frank Valli
Israeli Cyberspace Regulation: A Conceptual Framework, Inherent Challenges, and Normative Recommendations | 83 Gabi Siboni and Ido Sivan-Sevilla
Arti#cial Intelligence in Cybersecurity | 103 Nadine Wirkuttis and Hadas Klein
Pedal to the Metal? The Race to Develop Secure Autonomous Cars | 121 Andrew Tabas The purpose of Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is to stimulate Cyber, and enrich the public debate on related issues. Intelligence, Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is a refereed journal published and Security three times a year within the framework of the Cyber Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies. Articles are written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public bene"t company.
Editor in Chief: Amos Yadlin Editor: Gabi Siboni Journal Coordinator: Hadas Klein Asst. Coordinator: Gal Perl Finkel
Editorial Advisory Board • Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Swiss Federal • Je#rey A. Larsen, Science Applications Institute of Technology Zurich, Switzerland International Corporation, US • Frank J. Cillu#o, George Washington • James Lewis, Center for Strategic and University, US International Studies, US • Stephen J. Cimbala, Penn State • Theo Neethling, University of the Free University, US State, South Africa • Rut Diamint, Universidad Torcuato Di • John Nomikos, Research Institute for Tella, Argentina European and American Studies, Greece • Maria Raquel Freire, University of • T.V. Paul, McGill University, Canada Coimbra, Portugal • Glen Segell, Securitatem Vigilate, Ireland • Peter Viggo Jakobson, Royal Danish • Bruno Tertrais, Fondation pour la Defence College, Denmark Recherché Strategique, France • Sunjoy Joshi, Observer Research • James J. Wirtz, Naval Postgraduate Foundation, India School, US • Efraim Karsh, King’s College London, • Ricardo Israel Zipper, Universidad United Kingdom Autónoma de Chile, Chile • Kai Michael Kenkel, Ponti"cal Catholic • Daniel Zirker, University of Waikato, University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil New Zealand
Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber, Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected]
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is published in English and Hebrew. The full text is available on the Institute’s website: www.inss.org.il
© 2017. All rights reserved.
ISSN 2519-6677 (print) • E-ISSN 2519-6685 (online) Editor’s Foreword Dear Readers,
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Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017 3
Jointness in Intelligence Organizations: Theory Put into Practice
Kobi Michael, David Siman-Tov, and Oren Yoeli
Jointness—a concept popular in recent decades in military, intelligence, and civilian systems—represents a change in the way organizations function in a complex and challenging environment, which is characterized by a networked structure, or multiple connections among various entities. The most striking difference between cooperation and jointness is the process of fusion, which is typical of jointness. While cooperation preserves distinct organizational settings, authority, and areas of responsibility, in jointness we see new organizational formats, which represent a synergy that is greater than the sum of all the existing capabilities. This essay focuses on jointness in intelligence. New ways of thinking over the past years have led to the breakdown of the compartmentalizing of intelligence organizations and have given rise to models of jointness within intelligence organizations, military forces, and civilian entities so that they can carry out complex missions. This essay surveys the theoretical and practical development of the concept of jointness and presents four archetypes of jointness, based on several Israeli and American case histories. These case histories indicate that jointness has not always been applied accurately. The success of jointness depends upon several essential components that may be defined as its ecology. The most prominent is organizational freedom, which provides the space where it is possible and, indeed, recommended to provide autonomy to
Dr. Kobi Michael is a senior research fellow at INSS. David Siman-Tov is a research fellow at INSS. Oren Yoeli is an intern at INSS.
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017 5 KOBI MICHAEL, DAVID SIMAN$TOV, AND OREN YOELI | JOINTNESS IN INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS
6 various working echelons; this autonomy allows for flexibility and creativity even if it deviates from familiar modes of action.
Keywords: jointness, the intelligence community, intel, learning processes
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The Development of the Concept of Jointness
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First, it will review three cyber incidents during different time periods, as the US infrastructure, mechanisms, and policies were gradually evolving. It will analyze the conceptual, operational, and legislative evolution that led to the current decision-making paradigm and institutional structure of the US cybersphere. Secondly, the paper will examine the procedures and policies of the Intelligence Community (IC), and the US cyber operational structure. It will review the missions and background of the IC and its responsibilities before, during, and after a cyberattack, and will touch upon the IC’s organizational architecture. The paper will also briefly review the current cyber threats in the United States and will elaborate on some of the fundamental strategies and policies that it uses to provide a suitable response. Lastly, it analyzes the cybersphere’s macro-level, addressing the data coordination of the IC’s agencies, as well as the federal, state, and private sector institutions during a cyber crisis. Keywords: Moonlight Maze, Morris Worm, Stuxnet, cyberattacks, United States intelligence community, cyber crisis, cyber threats, internet governance, cyber policy, cyber strategy Omry Haizler is a former IDF Officer and a Prime Minister’s Office operative. He holds an MPA from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). He currently teaches at Columbia’s School of Continuing Education. 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Congress and the Intelligence Community HG(ULF5RVHQEDFK +DUYDUG.HQQHG\6FKRRO %HOIHU&HQWHUIRU 6FLHQFHDQG,QWHUQDWLRQDO$IIDLUV Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, Senate Armed Security Committee )HEUXDU\ VWDWHPHQWRI -DPHV5&ODSSHU'LUHFWRURI1DWLRQDO,QWHOOLJHQFH 2017 January | 1 No. | 1 Volume | KWWS ZZZGQLJRY¿OHVGRFXPHQWV8QFODVVL¿HGBB$7$B6)5BB6$6&B ),1$/SGI ³1RUVH,QWHOOLJHQFH3ODWIRUP´1RUVHKWWS PDSQRUVHFRUSFRP .ULVWHQ(LFKHQVHKU³&\EHUVHFXULW\LQWKH,QWHOOLJHQFH&RPPXQLW\¶V :RUOGZLGH7KUHDW$VVHVVPHQW´ JustSecurity 0DUFKKWWSV ZZZ MXVWVHFXULW\RUJF\EHUVHFXULW\XVLQWHOOLJHQFHFRPPXQLW\V ZRUOGZLGHWKUHDWDVVHVVPHQW ,ELG Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Security and Intelligence, Cyber, 'HSDUWPHQWRI'HIHQVH³7KH'R'&\EHU6WUDWHJ\´$SULO KWWS ZZZGHIHQVHJRY3RUWDOVIHDWXUHVBF\EHUVWUDWHJ\)LQDOBB 'R'B&\EHUB6WUDWHJ\BIRUBZHESGI 0DUN3RPHUOHDX³,&OHDGHUV )XWXUHF\EHUDWWDFNVZLOOGRUHDOGDPDJH´ Defense Systems 6HSWHPEHUKWWSV GHIHQVHV\VWHPVFRPDUWLFOHV LF OHDGHUVPDSRXWQDWLRQVWDWHF\EHUWKUHDWVDVS[ ,ELG $QGUHZ0HROD³&\EHUDWWDFNVDJDLQVWRXUFULWLFDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDUHOLNHO\WR LQFUHDVH´ Business Insider 0D\KWWS ZZZEXVLQHVVLQVLGHUFRPF\EHU DWWDFNVDJDLQVWRXUFULWLFDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDUHOLNHO\WRLQFUHDVH ,ELG ,ELG $DURQ%UDQWO\³'H¿QLQJWKHUROHRILQWHOOLJHQFHLQF\EHU´LQ Understanding the Intelligence Cycle ed 0DUN3K\WKLDQ /RQGRQDQG1HZ Lessons Learned from the “Viral Caliphate”: Viral Effect as a New PSYOPS Tool? Miron Lakomy This paper aims to analyze still unnoticed aspects of the so-called Islamic State’s cyber jihadist campaign in order to indicate its potential utility for state-sponsored information warfare. To begin with, it tends to present the most important features of the “Islamic Caliphate’s” online campaign, which aims to generate the “viral effect.” Moreover, the paper attempts to provide an overview of earlier military conflicts, in which the viral effect could be noticed. And finally, based on these considerations, it answers the question how viral marketing methods and mechanisms can be used as viable tools in psychological operations. Keywords: cyber jihadism, cyber propaganda, information warfare, PSYOPS, viral effect, viral marketing Introduction ,QIRUPDWLRQZDUIDUH 1LVEHFRPLQJDQLQFUHDVLQJO\LPSRUWDQWDVSHFWRI FRQWHPSRUDU\PLOLWDU\FRQÀLFWV 2$VPDQ\UHFHQWH[DPSOHVKDYHSURYHQWKH PDQLSXODWLRQRILQIRUPDWLRQLVIUHTXHQWO\FULWLFDOWRJDLQLQJDQDGYDQWDJH RYHUWKHHQHP\ 32QHPHWKRGRIGRLQJWKLVLVWKURXJKWKHXVHRISV\FKRORJLFDO RSHUDWLRQV 36<236 4ZKLFKDLPVWRLQÀXHQFHDWWLWXGHVDQGWKHEHKDYLRU RIKRVWLOHSRSXODWLRQVFRXQWHUHQHP\SURSDJDQGDDQGGLVLQIRUPDWLRQDQG HVWDEOLVKFUHGLELOLW\DPRQJWKHSHRSOHWDUJHWHG8QWLOWKHHQGRIWKH&ROG:DU Dr. Miron Lakomy is an assistant professor at the Institute of Political Sciences and Journalism, University of Silesia, Katowice, Poland. 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This atmosphere, coupled with massive leaps in technological advancement such as social media, mobile communications, processing analytics, large-form solid-state data storage, novel computational hardware, and software equipment, has thrust intelligence communities around the world into a strange new world of multi-dimensional intelligence. While science and technology and human capability both remain valuable facets of the same overlapping intelligence construct, there is an emerging trend of diametrically opposed camps pushing for one method over the other. This article explains how in terms of field application and intelligence information processing and analysis, both HUMINT and TECHINT could be maximized by the elimination of forced rivalry and by the encouragement of mutual cooperation that is currently lacking. Keywords: cyber, intelligence, TECHINT, HUMINT, science and technology, national security An earlier version of this paper was published by Frank Valli as “‘HumInt’ vs. ‘TechInt’: A Forced Intelligence Dichotomy,” The Security and Intelligence Studies Journal 1, no. 3 (Summer 2014). Parts of this paper were also published in Matthew Crosston, “American UAV Apartheid and the ‘Blowback’ of New Drone Armies,” New Eastern Outlook (April 3, 2015). Dr. Matthew Crosston, professor of political science, is the director of the International Security and Intelligence Studies (ISIS) program at Bellevue University. Frank Valli earned a Master of Science degree in the International Security and Intelligence Studies program at Bellevue University. 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Inside the CIA’s Dysfunctional Intelligence Culture 1HZ Gabi Siboni and Ido Sivan-Sevilla The cybersecurity challenge cuts across fields, sectors, and approaches. This essay presents the fundamentals of the problem, embraces a risk-based approach that perceives the state as society’s risk manager, and overviews the development of regulatory processes in modern societies. The essay then compares how the United States, European Union, and Israel have chosen to confront the cybersecurity challenge and stresses the importance and difficulties of imposing cybersecurity regulation on the civil sector. Finally, the essay explores some possible avenues for progress and suggests some solutions for increasing the resilience of cyberspace in the civic sector. Keywords: regulation, risks, cybersecurity, civic sector Introduction &\EHUVSDFHSRVHVYDULRXVFKDOOHQJHVRQGHFLVLRQPDNHUV7KHVHFKDOOHQJHV VWHPSULPDULO\IURPWKHKHDY\GHSHQGHQFHRIVWDWHVDQGVRFLHWLHVRQVXFK DYXOQHUDEOHVSKHUH:KLOHF\EHUVSDFHHQDEOHVWKHÀRZRILQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFKLQPRVWFDVHVOHDGVWRHFRQRPLFSURVSHULW\HI¿FLHQF\DQGVRFLDO EHQH¿WVLWLVDOVRDWDUJHWIRUQDWLRQDOVHFXULW\FULPLQDODQGFRPPHUFLDO Dr. Gabi Siboni is the director of the Cyber Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies. Ido Sivan-Sevilla is a research fellow in the Cyber Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies. 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1 | January 2017 2017 January | 1 No. | 1 Volume | FXVWRPHUVLQFDVHRID GDWDEUHDFK ([LVWVDWWKHVWDWH 1RQH[LVWHQW ([LVWVLQDFRKHUHQW 7UDQVSDUHQF\ OHYHOLQDQRQ XQLIRUPPDQQHU towards XQLIRUPPDQQHU under Directives FRQVXPHUV states, each with a DSSURYHGLQWKDW during a data GLIIHUHQWYHUVLRQ ZLOOEHLPSOHPHQWHG EUHDFK E\ 3ULYDF\LVD 0RVWO\PDQDJHG 0DQDJHGE\WKHVWDWH FRPPRGLW\²PRVWO\ E\PDUNHWIRUFHV ZLWKELQGLQJODZV Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Security and Intelligence, Cyber, PDQDJHGE\PDUNHW ZLWKUHODWLYHO\VWULFW institutions with IRUFHVH[FHSWIRU UHTXLUHPHQWVQRW SRZHUDQGPRWLYDWHG VSHFL¿FVHFWRUV IXOO\HQIRUFHGE\ E\WKHLQWHUHVWRI &RQÀLFWZLWK KHDOWKUHFRUGV WKH,VUDHOL/DZ VDIHJXDUGLQJSULYDF\ the right to LQIRUPDWLRQDERXW ,QIRUPDWLRQDQG DVDKXPDQULJKW SULYDF\ PLQRUVHWF 7HFKQRORJ\$XWKRULW\ RYHUULGLQJHFRQRPLF LQWHUHVWV$WWKH PHPEHUVWDWHVOHYHO WKHULJKWWRSULYDF\LV ZHDNHUYLVjYLVORFDO intelligence agencies Figure 1: Comparison of Cyberspace Regulatory Regimes in Israel, the United States, and the European Union 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and Struggles 2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 'RHVSULYDWL]DWLRQUHDOO\OHDGWRGHUHJXODWLRQ")RUDFKDOOHQJHWRWKHMXVWL¿FDWLRQV IRUSULYDWL]DWLRQVHH Nadine Wirkuttis and Hadas Klein Cybersecurity arguably is the discipline that could benefit most from the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI). Where conventional security systems might be slow and insufficient, artificial intelligence techniques can improve their overall security performance and provide better protection from an increasing number of sophisticated cyber threats. Beside the great opportunities attributed to AI within cybersecurity, its use has justified risks and concerns. To further increase the maturity of cybersecurity, a holistic view of organizations’ cyber environment is required in which AI is combined with human insight, since neither people nor AI alone has proven overall success in this sphere. Thus, socially responsible use of AI techniques will be essential to further mitigate related risks and concerns. Keywords: cybersecurity, artificial intelligence (AI), security intelligence, Integrated Security Approach (ISA), cyber kill chain Introduction 6LQFH ZKHQWKH¿UVWGHQLDORIVHUYLFH 'R6 DWWDFNZDVODXQFKHG 1 WKHVRSKLVWLFDWLRQQXPEHUDQGLPSDFWRIF\EHUDWWDFNVKDYHLQFUHDVHG VLJQL¿FDQWO\$VF\EHUDWWDFNVKDYHEHFRPHPRUHWDUJHWHGDQGSRZHUIXOVR KDYHF\EHUVHFXULW\FRXQWHUPHDVXUHV:KLOHWKH¿UVWVHFXULW\WRROZDVOLPLWHG WRVSRWWLQJVLJQDWXUHVRIYLUXVHVDQGSUHYHQWLQJWKHLUH[HFXWLRQWRGD\ZH¿QG solutions that are designed to provide holistic protection against a wide range Nadine Wirkuttis is a PhD candidate at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University and former research intern in the Cyber Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies . Hadas Klein is the Cyber Security Program Manager at the Institute for National Security Studies. 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Hinton, Simon Osindero, and Yee-Whye Teh, “A Fast Learning Algorithm for Deep Belief Nets,” Neural Computation 18, no. 7 (2006): 1527– 1554. 42 9LFWRU7KRPVRQ³&\EHU$WWDFNV&RXOG%H3UHGLFWHG:LWK$UWL¿FLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH´ iTechPost $SULOZZZLWHFKSRVWFRPDUWLFOHVF\EHU DWWDFNVSUHGLFWHGDUWL¿FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHKHOSKWP 7\XJX³$UWL¿FLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHLQ&\EHU'HIHQVH´ 6HUHQD+&KHQ$QWKRQ\--DNHPDQDQG-RKQ31RUWRQ³$UWL¿FLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH 7HFKQLTXHV $Q,QWURGXFWLRQWR7KHLU8VHIRU0RGHOOLQJ(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV´ 2017 January | 1 No. | 1 Volume | Mathematics and Computers in Simulation QR± ± ,ELG 'HEUD$QGHUVRQ7KDQH)ULYROGDQG$OIRQVR9DOGHV³1H[W*HQHUDWLRQ,QWUXVLRQ 'HWHFWLRQ([SHUW6\VWHP 1,'(6 $6XPPDU\´65,,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RPSXWHU 6FLHQFH/DERUDWRU\ 0D\ 47 .DWKHULQH1R\HV³$,+XPDQV 6HULRXV&\EHUVHFXULW\´ Computerworld , $SULOZZZFRPSXWHUZRUOGFRPDUWLFOH VHFXULW\DLKXPDQV VHULRXVF\EHUVHFXULW\KWPO Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Security and Intelligence, Cyber, 7RP6LPRQLW³0LFURVRIWDQG*RRJOH:DQWWR/HW$UWL¿FLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH/RRVHRQ 2XU0RVW3ULYDWH'DWD´ MIT Technology Review $SULO KWWSV ZZZ WHFKQRORJ\UHYLHZFRPV PLFURVRIWDQGJRRJOHZDQWWROHWDUWL¿FLDO LQWHOOLJHQFHORRVHRQRXUPRVWSULYDWHGDWD 49 %HUQG6WDKO'DYLG(OL]RQGR0RLUD&DUUROO0D\HU Pedal to the Metal? The Race to Develop Secure Autonomous Cars Andrew Tabas The advent of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will have profound effects on car ownership, transportation, and security. It is already possible to hack into individual cars through their entertainment and navigation systems. The connecting of AVs to networks will make it possible to hack them on a large scale. Policymakers should act now to implement both technical and legal security mechanisms. Potential solutions include the establishment of a system of certificates, an effort to establish an air gap between different computer networks in the vehicles, and the creation of laws that penalize hackers. Still, manufacturers should not be deterred by the risks of AVs. Instead, they should race ahead in the development of this potentially lifesaving technology. Keywords: autonomous vehicles, self-driving cars, V2V, V2I, intelligent transportation systems, Internet of Things, public key encryption, cybersecurity, hacking, air gap Introduction ³*HWWKHP´,QKLV VKRUWVWRU\³6DOO\´,VDDF$VLPRYWHOOVWKHVWRU\RI ³SRVLWURQLF´FDUVWKDWGULYHWKHPVHOYHV7KHFDUVDOVRFRPPXQLFDWH LQDQ DXWRQRPRXVYHKLFOHQHWZRUN GHIHQGWKHPVHOYHV DUHVSRQVHWRVHFXULW\ FRQFHUQV DQGNLOO GHPRQVWUDWLQJWKHHWKLFDOSUREOHPVDWSOD\ZLWKDXWRQRPRXV Andrew Tabas (Bachelor of Science in Foreign Service, Georgetown University, 2016) is a research analyst at the Cadmus Group. 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The journal is edited by Gabi Siboni, Head of the Cyber Security Program and the Military and Strategic Affairs Program at INSS. Articles may relate to the following issues: • Global policy and strategy on cyber issues • Cyberspace regulation • National cybersecurity resilience • Critical infrastructure cyber defense • Cyberspace force buildup • Ethical and legal aspects of cyberspace • Cyberspace technologies • Military cyber operations and warfare • Military and cyber strategic thinking • Intelligence, information sharing, and public-private partnership (PPP) • Cyberspace deterrence • Cybersecurity threats and risk-analysis methodologies • Cyber incident analysis and lessons learned • Techniques, tactics, and procedures (TTPs) Articles submitted for consideration should not exceed 6,000 words (including citations and footnotes), and should include an abstract of up to120 words and up to ten keywords. Articles should be sent to: Hadas Klein Coordinator, Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Tel: +972-3-6400400 / ext. 488 Cell: +972-54-4510411 [email protected] The Institute for National Security Studies – Cyber Security Program 40, Haim Levanon St, POB 39950, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv 61398 | Tel: +972-3-6400400 | Fax: +972-3-7447588