Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017 Jointness in Intelligence Organizations: Theory Put into Practice Kobi Michael, David Siman-Tov, and Oren Yoeli The United States’ Cyber Warfare History: Implications on Modern Cyber Operational Structures and Policymaking Omry Haizler Lessons Learned from the “Viral Caliphate”: Viral Effect as a New PSYOPS Tool? Miron Lakomy An Intelligence Civil War: “HUMINT’” vs. “TECHINT” Matthew Crosston and Frank Valli Israeli Cyberspace Regulation: A Conceptual Framework, Inherent Challenges, and Normative Recommendations Gabi Siboni and Ido Sivan-Sevilla Artificial Intelligence in Cybersecurity Nadine Wirkuttis and Hadas Klein Pedal to the Metal? The Race to Develop Secure Autonomous Cars Andrew Tabas Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017 Contents Editor’s Foreword | 3 Jointness in Intelligence Organizations: Theory Put into Practice | 5 Kobi Michael, David Siman-Tov, and Oren Yoeli The United States’ Cyber Warfare History: Implications on Modern Cyber Operational Structures and Policymaking | 31 Omry Haizler Lessons Learned from the “Viral Caliphate”: Viral E"ect as a New PSYOPS Tool? | 47 Miron Lakomy An Intelligence Civil War: “HUMINT’” vs. “TECHINT” | 67 Matthew Crosston and Frank Valli Israeli Cyberspace Regulation: A Conceptual Framework, Inherent Challenges, and Normative Recommendations | 83 Gabi Siboni and Ido Sivan-Sevilla Arti#cial Intelligence in Cybersecurity | 103 Nadine Wirkuttis and Hadas Klein Pedal to the Metal? The Race to Develop Secure Autonomous Cars | 121 Andrew Tabas The purpose of Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is to stimulate Cyber, and enrich the public debate on related issues. Intelligence, Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is a refereed journal published and Security three times a year within the framework of the Cyber Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies. Articles are written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public bene"t company. Editor in Chief: Amos Yadlin Editor: Gabi Siboni Journal Coordinator: Hadas Klein Asst. Coordinator: Gal Perl Finkel Editorial Advisory Board • Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Swiss Federal • Je#rey A. Larsen, Science Applications Institute of Technology Zurich, Switzerland International Corporation, US • Frank J. Cillu#o, George Washington • James Lewis, Center for Strategic and University, US International Studies, US • Stephen J. Cimbala, Penn State • Theo Neethling, University of the Free University, US State, South Africa • Rut Diamint, Universidad Torcuato Di • John Nomikos, Research Institute for Tella, Argentina European and American Studies, Greece • Maria Raquel Freire, University of • T.V. Paul, McGill University, Canada Coimbra, Portugal • Glen Segell, Securitatem Vigilate, Ireland • Peter Viggo Jakobson, Royal Danish • Bruno Tertrais, Fondation pour la Defence College, Denmark Recherché Strategique, France • Sunjoy Joshi, Observer Research • James J. Wirtz, Naval Postgraduate Foundation, India School, US • Efraim Karsh, King’s College London, • Ricardo Israel Zipper, Universidad United Kingdom Autónoma de Chile, Chile • Kai Michael Kenkel, Ponti"cal Catholic • Daniel Zirker, University of Waikato, University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil New Zealand Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber, Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is published in English and Hebrew. The full text is available on the Institute’s website: www.inss.org.il © 2017. All rights reserved. ISSN 2519-6677 (print) • E-ISSN 2519-6685 (online) Editor’s Foreword Dear Readers, The periodical Cyberspace, Intelligence, and Security is proud to present LWV¿UVWLVVXH,WLVDGLUHFWFRQWLQXDWLRQRI Military and Strategic Affairs , ZKLFKWKH,QVWLWXWHIRU1DWLRQDO6HFXULW\6WXGLHVKDVSXEOLVKHGIRUWKHODVW HLJKW\HDUV7KHQHZMRXUQDOLVDLPHGDWZULWHUVDQGUHDGHUVLQWHUHVWHGRU ZRUNLQJLQWKHPDQ\¿HOGVRIF\EHUVSDFHLQFOXGLQJDFDGHPLDSROLF\PDNLQJ DQGJRYHUQPHQWWKHDUP\LQWHOOLJHQFHDJHQFLHVHFRQRPLFVODZDQGRI FRXUVHWKRVHZKRDUHGHYHORSLQJDQGSURYLGLQJVROXWLRQVWRF\EHUVSDFH SUREOHPVDVZHOODVWKHSDUWLHVLQLQGXVWU\ZKRUHSUHVHQWWKHFXVWRPHUVRI WKRVHVROXWLRQV 7KHQHZMRXUQDOZLOOGHDOZLWKDUDQJHRIWRSLFVLQFOXGLQJJOREDOSROLF\ DQGVWUDWHJ\LQF\EHUVSDFHUHJXODWLRQRIF\EHUVSDFHVDIHJXDUGLQJQDWLRQDO UHVLOLHQFHLQF\EHUVSDFHDQGGHIHQVHRIFULWLFDOQDWLRQDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHV7KH MRXUQDOZLOODOVRGHYRWHVSDFHWRWRSLFVUHODWHGWRF\EHUIRUFHFRQVWUXFWLRQ VXFKDVWKHKXPDQUHVRXUFHVPHDQVRIZDUIDUHGRFWULQHRUJDQL]DWLRQ WUDLQLQJDQGFRPPDQGDVZHOODVDVSHFWVRIGHIHQVLYHDQGRIIHQVLYHF\EHUZDU 7KHMRXUQDOZLOOLQYLWHH[SHUWVWRFRQWULEXWHDUWLFOHVLQOHJDODQGHWKLFDO LVVXHVSULYDF\SURWHFWLRQLQDGGLWLRQWRUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQVWDWHVDQGWKH JOREDOWHFKQRORJLFDOJLDQWVRIF\EHUVSDFH6SHFLDOLVWVZLOOEHFDOOHGXSRQWR ZULWHDERXWVWUDWHJLFDQGPLOLWDU\WKRXJKWWKHGHSOR\PHQWRIPLOLWDU\IRUFH LQF\EHUVSDFHSURSDJDQGDRSHUDWLRQVDQDO\VLVRIF\EHULQFLGHQWVDQGWKHLU UDPL¿FDWLRQVDVZHOODVWKHEDODQFHRIGHWHUUHQFHDQDO\VLVRIF\EHUWKUHDWV DQGULVNVLQWHOOLJHQFHLQIRUPDWLRQVKDULQJDQGSXEOLFSULYDWHSDUWQHUVKLSV DLPHGDWLPSURYLQJF\EHUGHIHQVH7HFKQRORJLFDOH[SHUWVZLOOEHHQFRXUDJHG WRZULWHDERXWWHFKQRORJLFDOGHYHORSPHQWVFDVHVWXGLHVUHVHDUFKPHWKRGV DQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRISURFHVVHVFRQQHFWHGWRF\EHUVSDFH $FDOOIRUSDSHUVDQGZULWLQJLQVWUXFWLRQVZLOOEHDSSHQGHGWRHYHU\LVVXH RIWKHMRXUQDODQGZLOOEHDYDLODEOHDWWKH,166ZHEVLWH ,KRSH\RXZLOO¿QGWKLVMRXUQDODQLPSRUWDQWIRUXPIRUOHDUQLQJDQG GHYHORSLQJNQRZOHGJHDERXWF\EHUVSDFHLQWHOOLJHQFHDQGVHFXULW\ 'U*DEL6LERQL Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017 3 Jointness in Intelligence Organizations: Theory Put into Practice Kobi Michael, David Siman-Tov, and Oren Yoeli Jointness—a concept popular in recent decades in military, intelligence, and civilian systems—represents a change in the way organizations function in a complex and challenging environment, which is characterized by a networked structure, or multiple connections among various entities. The most striking difference between cooperation and jointness is the process of fusion, which is typical of jointness. While cooperation preserves distinct organizational settings, authority, and areas of responsibility, in jointness we see new organizational formats, which represent a synergy that is greater than the sum of all the existing capabilities. This essay focuses on jointness in intelligence. New ways of thinking over the past years have led to the breakdown of the compartmentalizing of intelligence organizations and have given rise to models of jointness within intelligence organizations, military forces, and civilian entities so that they can carry out complex missions. This essay surveys the theoretical and practical development of the concept of jointness and presents four archetypes of jointness, based on several Israeli and American case histories. These case histories indicate that jointness has not always been applied accurately. The success of jointness depends upon several essential components that may be defined as its ecology. The most prominent is organizational freedom, which provides the space where it is possible and, indeed, recommended to provide autonomy to Dr. Kobi Michael is a senior research fellow at INSS. David Siman-Tov is a research fellow at INSS. Oren Yoeli is an intern at INSS. Cyber, Intelligence, and Security | Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017 5 KOBI MICHAEL, DAVID SIMAN$TOV, AND OREN YOELI | JOINTNESS IN INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS 6 various working echelons; this autonomy allows for flexibility and creativity even if it deviates from familiar modes of action. Keywords: jointness, the intelligence community, intel, learning processes Introduction 7KHFRQFHSWRIMRLQWQHVVSRSXODULQUHFHQWGHFDGHVLQPLOLWDU\LQWHOOLJHQFH | Volume 1 | No. 1 | January 2017 2017 January | 1 No. | 1 Volume | DQGFLYLOLDQV\VWHPVUHSUHVHQWVDFKDQJHLQWKHZD\RUJDQL]DWLRQVRSHUDWHLQ DFRPSOH[DQGFKDOOHQJLQJHQYLURQPHQW7KLVHQYLURQPHQWLVFKDUDFWHUL]HG E\DQHWZRUNHGVWUXFWXUHWKDWLVPXOWLSOHFRQQHFWLRQVDPRQJHQWLWLHV -RLQWQHVVLVGLVWLQJXLVKHGIURPFRRSHUDWLRQE\WKHSURFHVVRIIXVLRQ:KLOH FRRSHUDWLRQSUHVHUYHVGLVWLQFWRUJDQL]DWLRQDOVHWWLQJVDXWKRULW\DQGDUHDV RIUHVSRQVLELOLW\LQFRQWUDVWWKHSURFHVVRIIXVLRQLQMRLQWQHVVFUHDWHVQHZ RUJDQL]DWLRQDOIRUPDWVDQGV\QHUJ\WKDWLVJUHDWHUWKDQWKHVXPRIDOOWKH Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Security and Intelligence, Cyber, H[LVWLQJFDSDELOLWLHV*HQHUDOO\VSHDNLQJRUJDQL]DWLRQVVK\DZD\IURP MRLQWQHVV\HWLQDUHDOLW\FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\FULVHVDQGFRPSHWLWLRQLQZKLFK RUJDQL]DWLRQV¿QGWKHPVHOYHVWKUHDWHQHGDQGYXOQHUDEOHWRIDLOWKHLULQDELOLW\ WRSURGXFHDQHIIHFWLYHUHVSRQVHWRWKHWKUHDWVDQGFKDOOHQJHVXOWLPDWHO\ VWUHQJWKHQVWKHLUZLOOLQJQHVVWRHQJDJHLQMRLQWQHVV 7KLVHVVD\IRFXVHVRQMRLQWQHVVLQLQWHOOLJHQFHKDYLQJGHYHORSHGDVQHZ DSSURDFKHVFROODSVHGWKHERXQGDULHVDQGVHSDUDWLRQEHWZHHQLQWHOOLJHQFH RUJDQL]DWLRQVZKLFK²DORQJVLGHKLVWRULFDOULYDOULHVRYHUSUHVWLJHDQG FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV²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