Warren E. Weber
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3i'R 317.3M31 H41 A Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2009 with funding from University of IVIassachusetts, Boston http://www.archive.org/details/pocketalmanackfo1839amer MASSACHUSETTS REGISTER, AND mmwo states ©alrntiar, 1839. ALSO CITY OFFICERS IN BOSTON, AND OTHER USEFUL INFORMATION. BOSTON: PUBLISHED BY JAMES LORING, 13 2 Washington Street. ECLIPSES IN 1839. 1. The first will be a great and total eclipse, on Friday March 15th, at 9h. 28m. morning, but by reason of the moon's south latitude, her shadow will not touch any part of North America. The course of the general eclipse will be from southwest to north- east, from the Pacific Ocean a little west of Chili to the Arabian Gulf and southeastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. The termination of this grand and sublime phenomenon will probably be witnessed from the summit of some of those stupendous monuments of ancient industry and folly, the vast and lofty pyramids on the banks of the Nile in lower Egypt. The principal cities and places that will be to- tally shadowed in this eclipse, are Valparaiso, Mendoza, Cordova, Assumption, St. Salvador and Pernambuco, in South America, and Sierra Leone, Teemboo, Tombucto and Fezzan, in Africa. At each of these places the duration of total darkness will be from one to six minutes, and several of the planets and fixed stars will probably be visible. 2. The other will also be a grand and beautiful eclipse, on Satur- day, September 7th, at 5h. 35m. evening, but on account of the Mnon's low latitude, and happening so late in the afternoon, no part of it will be visible in North America. -
EC541: Monetary Theory & Policy
EC541: Monetary Theory & Policy RGK Home Main Class preparation Lab sessions Teaching Assistant Paper topics News links Office hours and email Electronics policies Fall 2012 This class is designed so that it can be taken in two different ways by students in the masters programs. First, a student attending just the lectures can gain an overview of issues in monetary theory and policy. Second, a student attending both the lectures and the weekly lab sessions can obtain a more detailed understanding of how modern macroeconomic models are constructed and used. These lab sessions are optional, but most students find that the sessions substantially advance their understanding of the lecture material. Students are likely to find that there is a higher benefit from this class if they have previously taken MA macroeconomics (EC 502) or are taking it simultaneously. Students in their third semester of the MA program that have previously taken EC 502 optionally may take this class on a research basis (all such students must get written consent of the instructor prior to October 1). These students will attend all sessions of the class as well as taking examinations and quizzes. However, as discussed further below, their grade will be partly based on writing and presenting a research paper on a macroeconomic topic using the tools developed in their macro classes and in the lab sessions. The topics of these papers will be developed in consultation with the instructor. Research papers must be written in teams of two students. The two authors must jointly prepare the presentation of the paper. -
NBER WORKII4G PAPER SERS Christopher A. Sims Forthcoming In
NBER WORKII4G PAPER SERS TOWARD A MODERN MACROECONOMIC MODEL USABLE FOR POLICY ANALYSIS Eric M. L.eeper Christopher A. Sims Working Paper No. 4761 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June1994 Forthcomingin Fischer, Stanley and Rotemberg, Julio J.. eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994. MIT Press, Cambridge. MA. This paper is part of NBER's research program in International Trade and Investment. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Paper #4761 June 1994 TOWARD A MODERN MACROECONOMIC MODEL USABLE FOR POLICY ANALYSIS ABS'rRAa This paper presents a macroeconomic model that is both a completely specified dynamic general equilibrium model and a pmbabilistic model for time series data. We view the model as a potential competitor to existingISLM-based modelsthat continue to be used for actual policy analysis. Our approach is also an alternative to recent efforts to calibrate real business cycle models. In contrast to these existing models, the one we present embodies all the following important characteristics: 1) It generates a complete multivariate stochastic process model for the data it aims to explain, and the full specification is used in the maximum likelihood estimation of the model; ii) It integrates modeling of nominal variables --moneystock, price level, wage level, and nominal interest rate --withmodeling real vthables iii) It contains a Keynesian investment function, breaking the tight relationship of the return on investment with the capital-output ratio; iv) It treats both monetary and fiscal policy explicitly; v) It is based on dynamic optimizing behavior of the private agents in the model. -
Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas Sargent, ,, ^ Neil Wallace (P
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas Sargent, ,, ^ Neil Wallace (p. 1) District Conditions (p.18) Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review vol. 5, no 3 This publication primarily presents economic research aimed at improving policymaking by the Federal Reserve System and other governmental authorities. Produced in the Research Department. Edited by Arthur J. Rolnick, Richard M. Todd, Kathleen S. Rolfe, and Alan Struthers, Jr. Graphic design and charts drawn by Phil Swenson, Graphic Services Department. Address requests for additional copies to the Research Department. Federal Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55480. Articles may be reprinted if the source is credited and the Research Department is provided with copies of reprints. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review/Fall 1981 Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic Thomas J. Sargent Neil Wallace Advisers Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Professors of Economics University of Minnesota In his presidential address to the American Economic in at least two ways. (For simplicity, we will refer to Association (AEA), Milton Friedman (1968) warned publicly held interest-bearing government debt as govern- not to expect too much from monetary policy. In ment bonds.) One way the public's demand for bonds particular, Friedman argued that monetary policy could constrains the government is by setting an upper limit on not permanently influence the levels of real output, the real stock of government bonds relative to the size of unemployment, or real rates of return on securities. -
How the Rational Expectations Revolution Has Enriched
How the Rational Expectations Revolution Has Changed Macroeconomic Policy Research by John B. Taylor STANFORD UNIVERSITY Revised Draft: February 29, 2000 Written versions of lecture presented at the 12th World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 24, 1999. I am grateful to Jacques Dreze for helpful comments on an earlier draft. The rational expectations hypothesis is by far the most common expectations assumption used in macroeconomic research today. This hypothesis, which simply states that people's expectations are the same as the forecasts of the model being used to describe those people, was first put forth and used in models of competitive product markets by John Muth in the 1960s. But it was not until the early 1970s that Robert Lucas (1972, 1976) incorporated the rational expectations assumption into macroeconomics and showed how to make it operational mathematically. The “rational expectations revolution” is now as old as the Keynesian revolution was when Robert Lucas first brought rational expectations to macroeconomics. This rational expectations revolution has led to many different schools of macroeconomic research. The new classical economics school, the real business cycle school, the new Keynesian economics school, the new political macroeconomics school, and more recently the new neoclassical synthesis (Goodfriend and King (1997)) can all be traced to the introduction of rational expectations into macroeconomics in the early 1970s (see the discussion by Snowden and Vane (1999), pp. 30-50). In this lecture, which is part of the theme on "The Current State of Macroeconomics" at the 12th World Congress of the International Economic Association, I address a question that I am frequently asked by students and by "non-macroeconomist" colleagues, and that I suspect may be on many people's minds. -
Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: a Selective Summary of Recent Research
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 3 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/sarg76-1 Publication Date: 1976 Chapter Title: Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9082 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 23) 1 THOMAS J. SARGENT University of Minnesota Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes the macroeconomics underlying Irving Fisher's theory about tile impact of expected inflation on nomi nal interest rates. Two sets of restrictions on a standard macroeconomic model are considered, each of which is sufficient to iniplv Fisher's theory. The first is a set of restrictions on the slopes of the IS and LM curves, while the second is a restriction on the way expectations are formed. Selected recent empirical work is also reviewed, and its implications for the effect of inflation on interest rates and other macroeconomic issues are discussed. INTRODUCTION This article is designed to pull together and summarize recent work by a few others and myself on the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation.' The topic has received much attention in recent years, no doubt as a consequence of the high inflation rates and high interest rates experienced by Western economies since the mid-1960s. NOTE: In this paper I Summarize the results of research 1 conducted as part of the National Bureaus study of the effects of inflation, for which financing has been provided by a grait from the American life Insurance Association Heiptul coinrnents on earlier eriiins of 'his p,irx'r serv marIe ti PhillipCagan arid l)y the mnibrirs Ut the stall reading Committee: Michael R. -
The Real Bills Views of the Founders of the Fed
Economic Quarterly— Volume 100, Number 2— Second Quarter 2014— Pages 159–181 The Real Bills Views of the Founders of the Fed Robert L. Hetzel ilton Friedman (1982, 103) wrote: “In our book on U.S. mon- etary history, Anna Schwartz and I found it possible to use M one sentence to describe the central principle followed by the Federal Reserve System from the time it began operations in 1914 to 1952. That principle, to quote from our book, is: ‘Ifthe ‘money market’ is properly managed so as to avoid the unproductive use of credit and to assure the availability of credit for productive use, then the money stock will take care of itself.’” For Friedman, the reference to “the money stock”was synonymous with “the price level.”1 How did American monetary experience and debate in the 19th century give rise to these “real bills” views as a guide to Fed policy in the pre-World War II period? As distilled in the real bills doctrine, the founders of the Fed under- stood the Federal Reserve System as a decentralized system of reserve depositories that would allow the expansion and contraction of currency and credit based on discounting member-bank paper that originated out of productive activity. By discounting these “real bills,”the short- term loans that …nanced trade and goods in the process of production, policymakers ful…lled their responsibilities as they understood them. That is, they would provide the reserves required to accommodate the “legitimate,” nonspeculative, demands for credit.2 In so doing, they The author acknowledges helpful comments from Huberto Ennis, Motoo Haruta, Gary Richardson, Robert Sharp, Kurt Schuler, Ellis Tallman, and Alexander Wolman. -
Financial Panics and Scandals
Wintonbury Risk Management Investment Strategy Discussions www.wintonbury.com Financial Panics, Scandals and Failures And Major Events 1. 1343: the Peruzzi Bank of Florence fails after Edward III of England defaults. 2. 1621-1622: Ferdinand II of the Holy Roman Empire debases coinage during the Thirty Years War 3. 1634-1637: Tulip bulb bubble and crash in Holland 4. 1711-1720: South Sea Bubble 5. 1716-1720: Mississippi Bubble, John Law 6. 1754-1763: French & Indian War (European Seven Years War) 7. 1763: North Europe Panic after the Seven Years War 8. 1764: British Currency Act of 1764 9. 1765-1769: Post war depression, with farm and business foreclosures in the colonies 10. 1775-1783: Revolutionary War 11. 1785-1787: Post Revolutionary War Depression, Shays Rebellion over farm foreclosures. 12. Bank of the United States, 1791-1811, Alexander Hamilton 13. 1792: William Duer Panic in New York 14. 1794: Whiskey Rebellion in Western Pennsylvania (Gallatin mediates) 15. British currency crisis of 1797, suspension of gold payments 16. 1808: Napoleon Overthrows Spanish Monarchy; Shipping Marques 17. 1813: Danish State Default 18. 1813: Suffolk Banking System established in Boston and eventually all of New England to clear bank notes for members at par. 19. Second Bank of the United States, 1816-1836, Nicholas Biddle 20. Panic of 1819, Agricultural Prices, Bank Currency, and Western Lands 21. 1821: British restoration of gold payments 22. Republic of Poyais fraud, London & Paris, 1820-1826, Gregor MacGregor. 23. British Banking Crisis, 1825-1826, failed Latin American investments, etc., six London banks including Henry Thornton’s Bank and sixty country banks failed. -
On the Mechanics of Economic Development*
Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (1988) 3-42. North-Holland ON THE MECHANICS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT* Robert E. LUCAS, Jr. University of Chicago, Chicago, 1L 60637, USA Received August 1987, final version received February 1988 This paper considers the prospects for constructing a neoclassical theory of growth and interna tional trade that is consistent with some of the main features of economic development. Three models are considered and compared to evidence: a model emphasizing physical capital accumula tion and technological change, a model emphasizing human capital accumulation through school ing. and a model emphasizing specialized human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing. 1. Introduction By the problem of economic development I mean simply the problem of accounting for the observed pattern, across countries and across time, in levels and rates of growth of per capita income. This may seem too narrow a definition, and perhaps it is, but thinking about income patterns will neces sarily involve us in thinking about many other aspects of societies too. so I would suggest that we withhold judgment on the scope of this definition until we have a clearer idea of where it leads us. The main features of levels and rates of growth of national incomes are well enough known to all of us, but I want to begin with a few numbers, so as to set a quantitative tone and to keep us from getting mired in the wrong kind of details. Unless I say otherwise, all figures are from the World Bank's World Development Report of 1983. The diversity across countries in measured per capita income levels is literally too great to be believed. -
Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: an Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Models
LOW INTEREST RATES AND HIGH ASSET PRICES: AN INTERPRETATION IN TERMS OF CHANGING POPULAR MODELS By Robert J. Shiller October 2007 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1632 COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS YALE UNIVERSITY Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/ Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models By Robert J. Shiller October, 2007 Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models Abstract There has been a widespread perception in the past few years that long-term asset prices are generally high because monetary authorities have effectively kept long-term interest rates, which the market uses to discount cash flows, low. This perception is not accurate. Long-term interest rates have not been especially low. What has changed to produce high asset prices appears instead to be changes in popular economic models that people actually rely on when valuing assets. The public has mostly forgotten the concept of “real interest rate.” Money illusion appears to be an important factor to consider. Robert J. Shiller Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics 30 Hillhouse Avenue New Haven CT 06520-8281 [email protected] 2 Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models1 By Robert J. Shiller It is widely discussed that we appear to be living in an era of low long-term interest rates and high long-term asset prices. Although long rates have been increasing in the last few years, they are still commonly described as low in the 21st century, both in nominal and real terms, when compared with long historical averages, or compared with a decade or two ago. -
Some Skeptical Observations on Real Business Cycle Theory (P
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Modern Business Cycle Analysis: A Guide to the Prescott-Summers Debate (p. 3) Rodolfo E. Manuelli Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement (p. 9) Edward C. Prescott Some Skeptical Observations on Real Business Cycle Theory (p. 23) Lawrence H. Summers Response to a Skeptic (p. 28) Edward C. Prescott Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Vol. 10, NO. 4 ISSN 0271-5287 This publication primarily presents economic research aimed at improving policymaking by the Federal Reserve System and other governmental authorities. Produced in the Research Department. Edited by Preston J. Miller and Kathleen S. Rolte. Graphic design by Phil Swenson and typesetting by Barb Cahlander and Terri Desormey, Graphic Services Department. Address questions to the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55480 (telephone 612-340-2341). Articles may be reprinted it the source is credited and the Research Department is provided with copies of reprints. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Fall 1986 Some Skeptical Observations on Real Business Cycle Theory* Lawrence H. Summers Professor of Economics Harvard University and Research Associate National Bureau of Economic Research The increasing ascendancy of real business cycle business cycle theory and to consider its prospects as a theories of various stripes, with their common view that foundation for macroeconomic analysis. Prescott's pa- the economy is best modeled as a floating Walrasian per is brilliant in highlighting the appeal of real business equilibrium, buffeted by productivity shocks, is indica- cycle theories and making clear the assumptions they tive of the depths of the divisions separating academic require. -
An Interview with Neil Wallace;
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Altig, David; Nosal, Ed Working Paper An interview with Neil Wallace Working Paper, No. 2013-25 Provided in Cooperation with: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Suggested Citation: Altig, David; Nosal, Ed (2013) : An interview with Neil Wallace, Working Paper, No. 2013-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IL This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/96633 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu An Interview with Neil Wallace David Altig and Ed Nosal November 2013 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Reserve Federal WP 2013-25 An Interview with Neil Wallace David Altig Ed Nosal Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 2013 Abstract A few years ago we sat down with Neil Wallace and had two lengthy, free-ranging conversations about his career and, generally speaking, his views on economics.