Topic: Evolution of Look East to Act East Policy
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Binit Lal E-Content for Dept of Political Sc M.A. Political Sc. Sem- 2 Nalanda College Paper: Contemporary Issues in IR Topic: Evolution of Look East to Act East Policy 1. Introduction: One of the primary focus of India‘s foreign policy since 1991 has been the ―Look East‖ policy. The initial orientation of the project was primarily focussed on the ASEAN countries, which then opened onto India‘s eastern neighbours like China, Japan, and South Korea and, lately, South Pacific states including Australia and New Zealand too. The end of cold war heralded a new set of changes - qualitative and structural in nature- that thereby created distinct orientations in the foreign policies of India and countries of Southeast Asia. India‘s changing relation with Southeast Asia was meant to build up strong political, economic and strategic ties with these countries. This further saw a dilution of past inhibitions from Southeast Asian countries that opened themselves up to develop friendly and warm relations with India. This region thus gained more prominence in the foreign policy of India through the adoption of Look East Policy in 1991 which was introduced by Indian Prime Minister P. V. Narsimaha Rao. 2. Concept of Look East Policy: The beginnings and evolution of the Look East Policy was to be done with a lot of fanfare and rigour, even though it was not to be smooth sailing all the way. The relations with ASEAN witnessed India becoming a sectoral dialogue partner with ASEAN in 1992 and full dialogue partner in 1995.In July 1996, I.K. Gujral the then Foreign Minister of India, first participated in the ASEAN conference in Indonesia. Giving positive appraisal of the Indian government of this new relationship, he said, "we see the full dialogue partnership with ASEAN as manifestation of our Look East destiny..........India would work with ASEAN as a full dialogue partner to give real meaning and content to the prophecy and promise of the 'Asian century' that is about to draw upon us"1 On a closer look at India‘s Look East policy, what gets revealed is that along with improved relations with Southeast Asia it was an attempt to relieve the negative reaction to navy and the political atmosphere in a Post-Cold War world. This policy was an attempt to strengthen strategic relations with many countries on bilateral and multilateral platform and also intended to have closer links with ASEAN on political and economical grounds. Further, it was also an attempt to make a place for itself in the larger Indo- Pacific region by showing India‘s economic potential for investment and trade. It had a major impact on India‘s foreign policy. By moving away from the policy of aloofness over regional multilateral relations, India started to participate in regional organisations. The Look East Policy built a road for co-operating several regional and smaller countries of Southeast Asia. At the end, it helped India in coming out of the closet and feelings of leaving out in Asia pacific organisations like Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) or the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conferences (ASEAN-PMC) after becoming dialogue partner of ASEAN. ASEAN is only forum for regional cooperation and strategic collaboration. However, both of the parties have not admitted the rise of China in the background of the Look East Policy openly, but it makes a significant impression on it. 4. Compulsions for Look East Policy: It was sensed in the political circle that India‘s reluctance to join any International forums of this sort could damage our long term interest in the wider Asian region. Especially with the announcement that India will be opening its economy for the global integration. Being an outsider to the most important regional arrangements, India was increasingly concerned about the adverse impact of the growth of regionalism. Since the 1980s indeed the number of regional trade agreements effected had increased dramatically. No fewer than thirty four regional agreements were notified to GATT (General Agreement on Tariff and Trade) Under Artical XXIV, between 1990 and 1994. India was then afraid that this proliferation of regional trading arrangements would lead to protectionism and inward looking trade blocs. In the beginning of the 1990s, the world trading system seemed to be on the way to getting fragmented into three 1Gujral, I. K., 25 July, 1996, cited in The Times of India major regional blocs, with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the European Union and, possibly, Japan with East Asia. 4.1 India's Hesitancy about Projecting NE India in its Look East Policy: For an enhanced approach of Look East Policy of India, North Eastern States need to give a direct role in it. The NER has a natural advantage for border trade. The same justifies the need for and significance of establishing Regional Cooperation for facilitating growth of business and investment between the NER and the South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). If it happens, then the NER of India could become an economic bridgehead for tapping a market of 500 million people in our extended neighbourhood in South East Asia. Indo-Myanmar Cross Border Trade through Moreh-Tamu sector (Manipur), Champhai-Rih sector (Mizoram) and Nathur Pass (Sikkim) cross border between India and China is the continental dimension so far. Further opening up of Stillwell road and more border trade will boost the regional economic cooperation between India and South East Asian countries. North East India is closer with South East Asian countries' markets than mainland India i.e. Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai. Hence, the region has more advantages to have trade relation with Myanmar and other South East Asian countries. 4.2 Changing International Order After World War II, the world was ruled by victors of it, the USA and the Soviet Union because of their military and economic power. In economic domain, many Bretton Woods institutions like World Bank and IMF were created where the US Dollar has an upper hand. International trade was monitored by GATT and then WTO. After the failure of League of Nations, United Nations was crafted on the learned lessons for a nuclear era (Frédéric2001: 92). These nuclear weapons had significant impact on international order. The international politics was defined by many events that were significant in nature like the Cold War, the war in Vietnam, Non- Alignment, Bipolarity, and rapid growth in international trade and emergence of new nations after end of colonialism. Advanced healthcare and medicine availability explode the population. In Indian context the life expectancy rose up to 70 from 27 at the time of Independence. The most rapid growth happened in India and China with more than two billion in both the countries. 4.6 The Rise of China The transformation of Chinese economy in context of geo-politics and geo-economics is the significant example of technology development. In comparison to India, China‘s rise shook the world order. It was greatest transformation in human history. It diminished the hegemony of western developed economies over the global economy. The transformation in Chinese economy clearly started in 1978 and since then it has overtaken the economy of Japan. With GDP around USD 10 trillion in real terms, it is catching up with the USA. China has become the largest merchandise exporter in the world with huge trade surpluses with major economies. The One Belt and One Road initiative is the most geo-strategic initiative for geo-economics. However it is doubtful for continued financing of the project by China because of burden of debt over Chinese banks. Its military modernisation especially of navy has led it to the path of becoming great power and dominating the Indo-Pacific region. With the shift of global economy to Asia, China has flexed its muscles for becoming economic and military power. The BRI project has lured many countries to remain in Chinese geo-economic orbit. However, India has opposed it for it goes through the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) that is matter of its sovereignty, but India can‘t stop it progressing. 4.7 Multi-polarity After the Cold War, the International power structure was likely to lead by a multi-polar world with more than 3 Superpowers. It depended on large demography and economies of the world. After Bi-polar world, the USA, China, France, the UK, India, Russia, Brazil, Germany and Japan became leading power for balancing the Power vacuum where India was a huge market for energy, goods and investment. It had a significant impact on India‘s domestic and foreign policy. One such organisation of multiple countries is G-20 which later became regional forum for global economies and fiscal policies. The G-7 group of developed countries has only Japan from Asia even not the fastest growing economies of today- India and China. That is why it is less credible. 4.8 Strategic Considerations On the strategic front, India made leaps and bounds towards establishing a closer relationship with its Asian partners. Prior to the early 1990s, a fixation on U.S. - Soviet relations and border conflicts with China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh had largely directed India‘s political attention northward and westward. Strategic engagement with ASEAN was also blocked amid fears in Southeast Asia that India was expanding its military presence in the Indian Ocean and aimed to extend its influence into the region. Once the geopolitical barriers of the Cold War were broken, Southeast Asian countries became more receptive to cooperating with India strategically. Along with India, Southeast Asian countries were too ―facing the trauma of an uncertain future‖ in the post-Cold War atmosphere of political flux.