Look East Policy’ and Its Implications

IDSA Monograph Series No. 26 October 2013 China’s Perception of India’s ‘Look East Policy’ and Its Implications Baladas Ghoshal CHINA’S PERCEPTION OF INDIA’S ‘LOOK EAST POLICY’ AND ITS IMPLICATIONS | 1 IDSA Monograph Series No. 26 October 2013 China’s Perception of India’s ‘Look East Policy’ and Its Implications Baladas Ghoshal 2 | IDSA MONOGRAPH SERIES Cover Map Courtesy: GIS Lab, IDSA Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, sorted in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). ISBN: 978-93-82169-26-0 Disclaimer: It is certified that views expressed and suggestions made in this Monograph have been made by the author in his personal capacity and do not have any official endorsement. First Published: October 2013 Price: Rs. 299/- Published by: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt., New Delhi - 110 010 Tel. (91-11) 2671-7983 Fax.(91-11) 2615 4191 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.idsa.in Cover & Layout by: Geeta Kumari Printed at: M/S A. M. Offsetters A-57, Sector-10, Noida-201 301 (U.P.) Mob: 09810888667 E-mail: [email protected] CHINA’S PERCEPTION OF INDIA’S ‘LOOK EAST POLICY’ AND ITS IMPLICATIONS | 3 CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION: PERCEPTIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY ................... 5 Indian Perception of China ....................................................... 11 II. GENESIS OF INDIA'S LOOK EAST POLICY ....................................... 20 India’s Look East Policy: Its Origins and Early Phase....... 20 India's Southeast Policy after the end of the Cold War:Christened as LEP ............................................................... 25 China's Perception of India ....................................................... 31 India's Nuclear Explosion and China's Response ............... 32 China's Grudging Acceptance of a Rising India................... 35 India Joins the East Asia Summit: A Milestone in India's Look East Policy.......................................................... 38 China's Attempt to keep India out of EAS and Community-Building Process ................................. 39 India's Views on community building and its growing engagement with Asia-Pacific ............................. 44 India-China Differences on Asian Architecture ................... 47 ASEAN - India FTA and Economic Integration in Asia-Pacific ........................................................... 57 III. SECURITY AND STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENTS ................................. 67 India's Defence Cooperation with Southeast Asia............... 68 India's Naval Diplomacy ............................................................ 72 India's Naval Exercises and China's Response...................... 75 Growing India-US Engagement and China's Response............................................................................ 82 4 | IDSA MONOGRAPH SERIES IV. CHINA'S ASSERTIVENESS AND CHANGING STRATEGIC CONFIGURATION IN ASIA-PACIFIC SINCE 2010 .............................. 89 China's Defence Spending: a source of worry; ...................102 China tries to assure its neighbours of its peaceful intentions ........................................................................106 ASEAN wants India to play a larger Role in the region ...................................................................................107 V. INDIA, UNITED STATES AND ASEAN: CONSONANCE AND DISSONANCE ........................................................................................ 110 India as the Lynchpin in US's Asia pivot?.............................. 113 ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus ............................ 120 India-Japan Cooperation and China's Response ............... 122 India-Vietnam Oil Exploration and China's Response ......................................................................... 125 VI. CHINA'S SUSPICION OF INDIA'S RISING AMBITION: CONTRASTING VIEWS .................................................... 137 China's Assertiveness and their impact on India-China Relations ................................................................. 142 VII. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................... 153 CHINA’S PERCEPTION OF INDIA’S ‘LOOK EAST POLICY’ AND ITS IMPLICATIONS | 5 I INTRODUCTION: PERCEPTIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY The objective of this monograph is to explore China’s perception of India’s Look East Policy (LEP) and how that affects India’s strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. The Foreign Policy of any country is always a function of, apart from other variables, what others think of its policy objectives, how it might influence their own perceived national interests and their position in the regional and global power structure. Robert Zervis in his book, Perception and Misperception in International Relations famously wrote that any view of international politics that fails to take into account the role of perception, is inadequate.1 In the context of international relations and foreign policy, the mutual images held by actors affect their mutual expectations of the other’s behaviour and guide the interpretation of the other’s actions. Strengths or weakness in terms of power potentials are important features in the perception of a foreign country’s actions. If a country perceives the other as stronger either in its own capacity or by leveraging its association with other powers or a perceptibly hostile country, then the image becomes threatening and influences the actions of the two countries towards each other. Perception of a country vis-à-vis the other is generally dictated by the interaction of three factors: the perceived relative capability of the actor; the perceived political culture of foreign policy behaviour of that actor and in the context of the situation in which the 1 Robert Zervis, Perception and Misperception in International Relations, Princeton University Press, New Jersey, 1976. Perception (from the Latin perceptio, percipio) is the organisation, identification and interpretation of sensory information in order to represent and understand the environment. See, Daniel L. Schacter; Daniel T. Gilbert; Daniel M. Wegner, Introducing Psychology, Worth Publishers, Macmillan Higher Education, London, 2011. 6 | IDSA MONOGRAPH SERIES perception is made. The way in which one country reacts to an action carried out by another country, will then depend on which particular image becomes dominant in a situation and consequently will influence the interpretation of that action. The same action can be interpreted as negative or harmful to the perceiver’s country if the actor is perceived as unfriendly, hostile or an enemy, or alternately positive and welcome if it is perceived as a friend, partner or an ally. India’s recent warmth towards the United States, Japan and Vietnam, for example, are perceived in China, a country that otherwise would not feel insecure vis-à-vis India, as an attempt to contain China. Similarly, China’s defence cooperation and its support to Pakistan for missile technology are perceived in India to be threatening. Even though India protests from time to time against the US military aid to Pakistan, it does not find that support as threatening as the Chinese cosiness with Pakistan. In the 1950s, when India’s relations with the United States were cold because of its policy of non-alignment and its refusal to join the SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation), American military assistance to Pakistan in 1954 was perceived in India as changing the balance of power in the sub-continent and was the primary reason for the icy relationship between the two countries. Finally, in the situation in which the interaction between the perceiver and the target takes place, has an influence on the perceiver’s impression of the target. The strength of the situational cues also affects social perception. As the context of the situation in which the perception is made some situations provide strong cues to behaviour of a state vis-a-vis the other. For example, the recent Chinese incursion in Ladakh evoked a perception of Beijing, in the minds of most Indians, as hostile and triggered a strong response from New Delhi. Friendliness/hostility and strength/weakness constitute the building blocks of the image of the other. As a corollary, how actions of a country are perceived by looking at how the perceiver views a particular country is an important feature in the understanding of international relations and foreign policies of countries. Perceptions may be generated from power situations, but those perceptions may then shape how power is viewed and further used. David Scott suggests that the relationship between perception and power is exemplified in a negative general sense in the ‘International Relations’ (IR) ‘security dilemma’ CHINA’S PERCEPTION OF INDIA’S ‘LOOK EAST POLICY’ AND ITS IMPLICATIONS | 7 syndrome. IR constructivism that puts emphasis on the more intangible role of images, perceptions and misperceptions is an important tool in understanding the dynamics and the complexities of Sino-Indian relations. In terms of perceptions and images each hold of the other, observers of India-China relations pointed out that there were still ‘particularly dangerous . psychological estrangements’ and antagonisms operating at the popular

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