Cholera Situation and Response Updates 27 October 2017
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Republic of South Sudan CHOLERA SITUATION AND RESPONSE UPDATES 27 OCTOBER 2017 Epidemic trends § Cholera transmission reported in three counties [Juba, Budi, and Kapoeta East] in the last four weeks [40-43, 2017]. § Two cholera cases were confirmed from Napotpot, Kapoeta East after more than two incubation periods without cases. Oral cholera vaccination was conducted in the county and there is currently no evidence of active transmission. § Nine cholera cases were confirmed from Juba in week 43 (table 2). § Cholera transmission in Budi has continued to decline (Table 1, Figs. 1&2). § Three suspect cholera cases (all RDT positive) reported from Mayom in the last four weeks. Table 1: Cholera cases by county for weeks 40, 2017 to 43, 2017 Cases reported Deaths Cumulative Cumulative New Date first (attack New during County during Facility+ reported Number rate per reporting reporting Community Facility Community of cases 10,000) period period CFR% Kapoeta East 24-Apr-17 2 2,107 88 0 16 10 1.23 Juba 18-Jun-16 112 2,808 48 1 26 10 1.28 Budi 22-Jul-17 33 703 41 2 43 36 11.24 § During the last four weeks, Juba and Budi have reported the highest number of cholera cases (Table 1). During the same period, three deaths were reported from Budi (2) and Juba (1) (Table 1). Fig. 1|ChoLera cases in Juba, Budi, & Fangak from week 39 to 42, 50 2017 40 46 30 26 Budi Juba Fangak 23 20 22 Number of cases 7 10 10 0 7 10 0 wk39 wk 40 wk 41 wk 42 EpidemioLogicaL week of onset 1 § A cumulative of 703 cases including 79 deaths [CFR 11.2%] have been reported in Budi since week 29, 2017 (Table 1 and Figure 2). Overall, males (54.8%) are more affected than females (43.4%). Male children and male young adults are more affected than their female counterparts of corresponding age (Figure 3). § The outbreak in Budi started on 28 July 2017 with the initial transmission occurring among gold-miners in Ngauro. Fig. 2|Cholera epidemic curve, Budi county 2017 140 100% 100% 90% 120 Alive Dead CFR% 80% 100 70% 67% 80 60% 50% 60 CFR % 40% 40 30% Number of cases/deaths 20% 20% 20 16% 17% 16% 17% 10% 9% 9% 8% 10% 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Epidemiological week of illness onset 2017 Cordaid and the County Health Department are supporting management in Ngauro CTU, Kimotong CTU, Kimotong PHCC, Vaka ORP, Nagishot PHCC, and Kakilai PHCC in Budi county. Fig. 3|ChoLera case distribution by age and sex, Budi, week 26 - 42 2017 75-79 0.10 0.00 70-74 0.10 65-69 0.40 0.00 60-64 0.100.70 55-59 0.10 1.10 50-54 1.60 2.00 45-49 2.10 2.30 40-44 2.30 3.70 35-39 3.00 2.80 30-34 7.50 3.80 25-29 6.00 4.30 20-24 7.40 4.10 15-19 5.10 6.10 10-14 3.10 2.40 5-9 4.00 3.40 <0-4 11.40 6.40 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Percentage % There are ample cholera case management kits and the cholera treatment facilities are 2 adequately staffed for the current case-loads. In addition to case management, surveillance, and WASH interventions, a cholera vaccine campaign is planned for the second week of November 2017. In Juba, 112 cases including one death (CFR 0.89%) were reported in the last four weeks [week 40-43]. Most of the cases seen in Juba in the last four weeks originated from Rejaf, Kator, and Northern Bari payams. An oral cholera vaccine campaign has been completed in Juba targeting both high-risk locations and areas with active transmission. Fig. 4|ChoLera cases per 10,000 by county in South Sudan, 2016 and 2017 15 Yirol West - 143 Yirol East - 1 Tonj North - 144 Tonj East - Terekeka 1 - Rubkona 22 70 0 Renk - Panyijiar 38 40 4 Nyirol - 0 Mayom - Mayendit 13 10 2017 2016 1 Malakal - Magwi -1 Leer - 10 87 Kapoeta … - 66 Kapoeta … - 88 Kapoeta East - Juba 14 35 131 Fashoda - Fangak 8 8 Duk 10 47 Canal Pigi 3 11 Budi 41 - 5 Bor 4 189 Ayod - Awerial 31 74 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 choLera cases per 10,000 population OveraLL choLera trends § Since the start of the current outbreak on 18 June 2016, a total of 21,268 cases including 437 deaths (CFR 2.05%) have been reported from 26 counties. The most affected counties include Ayod, Tonj East, Yirol East, Fashoda, Kapoeta East, and Kapoeta South (Figure 4). § The most affected populations in these locations include: Landing sites/ towns along River Nile; cattle camp dwellers; populations living on islands - no social services; and IDPs - recently displaced with inadequate access to WASH. 3 Fig. 5|ChoLera cases fataLity rate (%) by county in South Sudan, 2016 and 2017 Yirol West 0% Yirol East 4% Tonj North 0% Tonj East 2% Terekeka 33% 0% Rubkona 1% Raja 0% Panyijiar 3% 7% Nyirol 3% Mayom 44% 2% Mayendit 3% Malakal 0% 2017 2016 Magwi 3% Leer 3% Kapoeta … 1% Kapoeta … 0% Kapoeta East 1% Juba 1% 2% Fashoda 2% Fangak 1% 1% 6% Duk 9% Canal Pigi 0% 3% Budi 11% Bor 3% Ayod 1% 2% Awerial 1% 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% choLera case fataLity rate - CFR [%] Cholera case fatality rates were highest in counties with poor access to health care especially in populations living in the islands and cattle camps (Figure 5). Overall, a higher proportion of females (51.9%) are affected than males (47.5%). Children and young adults are more affected. Figure 6 shows the age and sex distribution of cases. There are no significant sex differences after adjusting for age (marginally higher number of cases in females). Fig 6|ChoLera case distribution by age and sex, June 2016 - Oct 2017 90+ 0.00 85-89 0.00 80-84 0.10 0.10 75-79 0.10 0.10 70-74 0.30 0.30 65-69 0.30 0.40 60-64 0.80 1.10 55-59 0.60 0.60 50-54 1.30 1.50 45-49 1.50 1.80 40-44 1.90 2.40 35-39 2.60 3.30 30-34 3.30 4.60 25-29 3.60 5.00 20-24 3.10 4.00 15-19 3.40 4.30 10-14 5.70 5.40 5-9 7.50 6.50 0-4 11.20 10.20 15 10 5 Percentage %0 5 10 15 4 Fig.7|Cholera Epidemic Curve for South Sudan, week 23, 2016 to week 43, 2017 2000 20% 1500 Alive Died CFR% 15% 1000 10% CFR% 500 5% Number of cases/deaths 0 0% 2628303234363840424446485052 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042 2016 2017 Figure 7 shows the overall cholera epidemic curve for South Sudan. The highest transmission peaks were associated with outbreaks that affected cattle camps in the following counties – Awerial, Yirol East, Duk, Bor, Uror, Ayod, Kapoeta East, Kapoeta South, and Kapoeta North. The same locations also reported high CFR due to poor access to health care especially at the onset of the outbreak. In week 43, the CFR is 14.3% since only seven cases including one death were reported from Juba county. As seen in Table 2, cholera cases have been confirmed every year since the onset of the South Sudan crisis in 2013. The 2016/17 outbreak is the longest and largest in magnitude and geographical extent. Due to the protracted crisis, displacements, insecurity, and declining investment in WASH, access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities has declined significantly. Access to improved sanitation facilities is less than 10% while access to safe drinking water from improved water sources is estimated at 60%. TABLE 2|CHOLERA OUTBREAKS IN SOUTH SUDAN 2014-2017 Summary measure 2014 2015 2016/17 No. cases 6,421 1,818 21,268 No. deaths 167 47 437 CFR% 2.60% 2.59% 2.05% No. counties affected 16 3 26 Duration (weeks) 29 19 (72) Ongoing Outbreak start date 24/04/2016 18/05/2016 18/06/2016 Date of last case 13/11/2016 24/09/2016 Ongoing Attack rate [per 10,000] 27 17 45.8 5 Coordination of choLera response The National cholera task force is coordinating the overall cholera response. The task force meetings convene weekly on Wednesdays from 2 pm in the WHO conference hall in Juba. ChoLera response updates The overall response to cholera in South Sudan is coordinated by the national taskforce that is Chaired by MoH with support from WHO, Unicef, and partners (Health and WASH clusters). The weekly cholera taskforce meetings are ongoing in Juba during which, the cholera situation and the ongoing cholera prevention and response activities in the affected and high-risk areas are reviewed. During week 43, the cholera taskforce meeting was convened in Juba on 25 October 2017 to review the current cholera situation and status of outbreak response activities. In the same way, the oral cholera vaccine working group meeting was convened on 27 October 2017. The oral cholera vaccine working group meeting reviewed and updated plans for ongoing and planned oral cholera vaccine deployments.