“Democracy is Latin America’s second Independence” Evidence fromLatinobarómetro Presented at The James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Rice University

Marta Lagos Houston Texas October 5th, 2007 LATINOBARÓMETRO

www.latinobarometro.org • Represents the adult population of each country, 500 million all over the region. error fluctuate by country between 2,8% and 4,1% • 200 variables applied per year (aprox.)

• Comparative information sources:

• GLOBAL BAROMETERS

• WORLD VALUES

• CSES

• GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY

• OWN SOURCES LATINOBARÓMETRO

TECHNICAL REFERENCE

• 196.788 face to face interviews. • Sample size of 1000 y 1200 cases. • Sample error 3% A global perspective SUPPORT FOR AND SATISFATION WITH DEMOCRACY DATA FROM EUROBAROMETER AND GLOBAL BAROMETERS SUPPORT SATISFACTION DIF. EUROPEAN UNION* 78% 53% -25 * 69% 58% -11 ASIAN BAROMETER 61% 55% -6 EASTERN EUROPE* 53% 29% -24 LATINOBAROMETER* 56% 32% -24 SOUTH ASIA 62% 11% -51%

* EUROBAROMETER: Member countries of the European Union AFROBAROMETER: 12 PAÍSES, 1999 - 2001 ASIANBAROMETER: 4 Countries 1999-2001 NEW DEMOCRACIES BAROMETER: 9 PAÍSES, 2000 LATINOBAROMETER: 17 Countries. SOUTH ASIA BAROMETER: 5 countries 2004 The world in values THE WORLD VALUE SURVEY- HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN A VALUE SPACE.

1.00 + 0.95 CHOICE 0.90 Ronald Inglehart 0.85 Christian Welzel 0.80 + 0.75

The constraint vs. 0.70 choice polarity reflects a Human Development 0.65 continuum in which 0.60 a move towards the choice-end means 0.55 more Human 0.50 Development as it gives people more room 0.45 to realize their inner 0.40 human potentials. 0.35

Secular-Rational Values 0.30 0.25 _ 0.20

0.15

0.10 _ 0.05 CONSTRAINT 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 _ Self-Expression Values +

1.5 Value Change in three types of societies, 1981-2000 1.25

1

0.75 1990 ex-communist 2000 0.5 2000 0.25 1990 0 1981 rich democracies

-0.25

-0.5

-0.75 1990 Traditional/Secular-Rational Values Traditional/Secular-Rational -1 developing

-1.25 countries 2000

-1.5 -1.5 -1.25 -1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 Survival-Self Expression Values WORLD VALUE SURVEY CHILE, ARGENTINA, MEXICO 1980 - 2006 0 -0,500,511,522,5

Argentina 1980

México 1990

-0,5 Argentina 1995 Argentina 1990

México 1995

Chile 2006 Chile 2000

Chile 1995 -1 Argentina 2000

Traditional - Rational Traditional México 1980 Chile 1990 México 2000

-1,5

México 2005

-2 SURVIVAL SELF EXPRESION Recovering the past

SUBJECTIVE INCOME LATIN AMERICA 1996-2006 / TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2006

P. Your total income and that of your family, ¿Does it allow you to cover your needs? ¿In which of the following circumstances do you find yoursef? *Here only ‘It is not enough, we have difficulties’ plus ‘It is not enough we have great difficulties’

62 60 53 59 57 50 54 50 46 50

Nicaragua 70 El Salvador 64 70 Ecuador 61 65 Colombia 60 59 República Dominicana 55 55 Panamá 50 54 45 México 53 40 Perú 52 35 Uruguay 51 30 Honduras 50 25 Paraguay 50 20 Bolivia 47 15 Chile 10 47 Venezuela 5 45 Brasil 0 43 Guatemala 38 Argentina 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200537 2006 Costa Rica 32 Latin America 50

0 102030405060708090100

Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2006. Per Capita income and support for democracy 13 0 in Chile 1995-2004 12 5

12 0

115

110

10 5

10 0

95

90

85

80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004

PIB Per Capita Apoyo a la Democracia THERE ARE THINGS TO BE DONE FOR A FULL DEMOCRACY AMÉRICA LATINA 1996 -2000 P. ¿Do you think democracy is fully estsblished or do you think it is not fully established and there are things to be done for a full democracy?

100

90

80 81 79 81 77 70

60

50

40

30

20 18 13 18 15 10 6 5 4 0 3 1996 1997 1998 2000

Democracy y fully established There are things to be done for a full democracy NS/NR

Fuente: Latinobarómetro 1996-2000: n = 18.717/ 17.767/ 17.907/ 18.135 INCONSISTENCY LEVELS OF ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE DEMOCRACY Number of Non-favorable Mentions towards Democracy 012345678Total 0 110000001 5 1 11000113- 7 2 0011126- - 10 Number of 3 001129- - - 13 Favorable 4 011312----17 Mentions 5 01315-----19 towards 6 0214------16 Democracy 7 19------10 8 4------4 Total 8 14202016117 3 1 100

* Numbers represent % of the total of the sample (and not of the column) At least 49% of the Latin Americans have inconsistent attitudes towards the democracy Q. Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the following statements. In democracy, the economic system generally works well/ Democracy may have problems, but it is the best system of government/ I would not mind a non democratic government in power if it could solve the economic problems/ More than political parties and elections, what we lack is a decisive leader who is dedicated to resolving problems/ I prefer democracy to a leader with powers unlimited by law/Only with a democratic system can (country) become a developed country/ Elections offer the voters a real option to choose between parties and candidates. Q. Please look at this card and tell me how much confidence you have in…? Democracy as a government system with which (country) can become a developed country NOTE: Favorable mentions towards democracy refer to the number of times that the interviewee responds ‘Agree’ or ‘Strongly agree’ with a favorable affirmation towards the democracy or ‘Disagree’ or ‘Strongly disagree’ with a non favorable affirmation towards the democracy. Unfavorable mentions towards democracy refers to the inverse case. Source: LATINOBARÓMETRO 2003 SUPPORT - SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY AND PIB PER CAPITA LATIN AMERICA 1995-2006

76

66 61 63 62 56 58 57 58 56 53 53 53 48 46 41 36 38 37 36 38 33 31 29 29 26 27 25

16

6 4,4 3,8 2,3 3 4 0,9 -1,3 0,4 -4 -2,3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2000

Suport for Democracy Satisfaction with Democracy Growth per capita

Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2006: n = 18.717/ 17.767/ 17.907/ 18.135/ 18.135/ 18.522/ 18.658/ 19.605/20.207/ 20.234 DEMOCRACY INDEX LATIN AMERICA 2006

Indice de Democracia constriuido a partir de las preguntas P18st, P19st, P20stm, P22st.a, P22st.b, P22na.c. Índice Alto es cuando Índice toma valores 5 o 6, Medio si toma valores 3 o 4 y Bajo si toma valores 0,1 o 2. 7 Uruguay 31 61 7 República Dominicana 36 57 7 Venezuela 41 53 11 Costa Rica 41 48 14 Argentina 4344 16 Panama 4143 22 Chile 39 20 Honduras 38 42 18 Colombia 35 46 21 Mex ic o 32 47 19 Nic aragua 31 50 Bolivia 17 31 22 53 Per u 31 48 17 Brasil 30 54 17 Guatemala 26 57 36 El Salvador 26 39 30 Ecuador 24 45 43 Paraguay 13 44 0 1020304050607080

High democratic index Medium democratic index Low democratic index

Source: Latinobarómetro 2006 POLITICAL INSTITUTION CONFIDENCE INDEX BY PROGRESS ON REDUCING CORRUPTION IN STATE INSTITUTIONS LATIN AMERICA 2003 Q. How much progress do you think has been made on reducing corruption in the State institutions during the last year? Do you think there has been much progress, some progress, little or no progress at all? Q. Please look at this card and tell me how much confidence you have in each of the following groups/ institutions. Would you say you have a lot, some, a little or no confidence? Political Parties, Government, Judiciary & Congress * ‘No confidence’ corresponds to interviewees that have mentioned ‘No confidence’ for the 4 institutions. Instead60 ‘High Confidence’ corresponds to interviewees that have ‘A lot’ of confidence for at least 2 institutions.

50 45 38 39 40 32 32 30 28 28 30 20 21 16 20 13 15 8 10 5 5 0 No progress in A little progress in Some progress in Much progress in corruptionNo confidence corruptionLow confidence corruptionMeduim CondidencecorruptionHigh Confidence reduction reduction reduction reduction Gama =0.225

Source: Latinobarómetro 2003: n = 18.658 SOCIAL MOBILITY % OF RESPONDENTS WITH PRIMARY OR LESS EDUCATION BY AGE AND PARENTS EDUCATION LATIN AMERICA 2003 100

90 83 80 77 68 70 62 59 60 56 49 50 40 40 30 25 27 20 22 22 20 12 9 10 7 0 Born After 1978 Born 1963-1977 Born 1962-1943 Born before 1942

Basic or less (F) Secondary or less (F) Higher or less (F) Total

Q. How much and what type of education respondent completed? Q. How much and what type of education did your parents complete? * Percents represent population who’s parents and respondents have basic education or less by age cohort. N = 16.424 Source: LATINOBARÓMETRO 2003 SOCIAL MOBILITY AND SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY Basic to Basic to Basic to DIF (Higher- Basic Secondary Higher Basic) gHih Impact Colombia 34 52 71 37 Brasil 30 33 58 28 Guatemala 28 41 54 26 México 50 48 70 21 Argentina 56727317 Perú 46 51 60 14 Medium Impact Chile 45 50 57 12 Bolivia 47 50 59 12 Uruguay 74 84 86 12 Venezuelagative Impact 67 75 77 10 LowEl Salvador or Ne 44 49 53 9 Ecuador 46 44 55 9 Panamá 46 53 54 8 gua 55 47 62 7 Nicara Honduras 56 46 57 1 Paraguay 38 37 37 -2 Costa Rica 79 78 75 -4 Q. How much and what type of education respondent completed? N = 12.668 Q. How much and what type of education did your parents complete? Q. With which of the following statements do you agree most? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. Under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one. For people like me, it does not matter whether we have a democratic or a non-democratic regime. * Percents represent population who supports democracy and who’s parents have less than basic education. Source: LATINOBARÓMETRO 2003 EXPECTATIONS OF SOCIAL MOBILITY TOTALS BY COUNTRY, 2006

Q. Do you think that in (country) a person who is born poor can become rich or do you think it’s impossible to be born poor and become rich? * Answer shown ‘ A person who is born poor can become rich’. Peru 74 Nicaragua 67 Costa Rica 66 Guatemala 66 Colombia 66 Bolivia 65 Honduras 65 Venezuela 64 Dominican Rep. 63 Mexico 62 Panama 62 Brazil 60 Ecuador 60 El Salvador 57 Chile 45 Argentina 38 Paraguay 38 Uruguay 34 Latin America 58 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Source: Latinobarómetro 2006. n=20.234. Diminishing power of Parties and ideology VOTE FOR A POLITICAL PARTY TOTALS LATIN AMERICA, 1996-2006

Q. If elections were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for? * ‘Vote for a party’ includes all those cases in which interviewees mentioned a political party. ** ‘Not vote for a party’ includes ‘Vote void/blank’, ‘Nor vote/none’, ‘Not registered’ and ‘DNK /DNA’. 70

60 55 58 53 54 54 56 51 52 51 50 49 49 47 48 46 46 44 45 42 40

30

20

10

0 Vote for a political party Not vote for a political party 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006

Source: LATINOBARÓMETRO 1996-2006. DEMOCRACY WITH PARTIES AND CONGRESS TOTALS BY COUNTRY, 2006

Q1. Some people say that without political parties there can be no democracy, while others say that democracy can work without political parties. Which is closer to your view? Q2. Some people say that without a National Congress there can be no democracy, while others say that democracy can work without a National Congress. Which is closer to your view?

Table: Interviewees who say that, without Congress and without parties, there can be no democracy.

Without parties Without Congress Uruguay 71 73 Costa Rica 73 75 Venezuela 58 65 Dominican Rep. 77 80 Argentina 64 71 El Salvador 56 54 Chile 53 59 Guatemala 50 52 Nicaragua 64 66 Peru 52 54 Mexico 52 54 Honduras 57 64 Colombia 51 54 Paraguay 39 47 Panama 42 49 Brazil 45 50 Bolivia 38 47 Ecuador 45 42 Latin America 58 55

Source: Latinobarómetro 2006.n= 20.234 CLEAN OR RIGGED ELECTIONS:Elections do not represent plurality within societies:LATIN AMERICA,1995-2006

Q. Generally speaking, do you think the elections in this country are clean or rigged?

70 Those who feel a restricted plurality 55 60 49 52 46 54 50 49 39 44 39 37 41 40 37

30

20 10 12 8 10 9 8 10

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 2005 2006

Clean Rigged DNK/DNA

Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2006 Window of Development IMPROVEMENT OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION COMPARED TEN YEARS AGO LATIN AMERICA 2001-2006 / TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2006

Q. Pensando en su situación económica hoy comparada con hace 10 años atrás. ¿Ud. diría que ha mejorado mucho más, algo más, ha permanecido casi igual, ha empeorado algo más o ha empeorado mucho en relación al resto de los (nacionalidad)? * Aquí sólo ‘ha mejorado mucho más’ más ‘ha mejorado algo más’

47

36

30

Brasil 71 Venezuela 60 Guatemala 58 Chile 54 Colombia 53 Panamá 52 Argentina 50 52 Bolivia 52 México 40 50 Costa Rica 49 Rep. Dominicana 30 49 Honduras 43 Perú 20 43 Uruguay 42 Nicaragua 10 39 Paraguay 31 El Salvador 0 26 Ecuador 21 Latinamerica 2001 2005 200647

0 1020304050607080

Source: Latinobarómetro 2001-2006. SATISFACTION WITH ECONOMY LATIN AMERICA 2002-2006 / TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2006

P. En general, ¿Diría Ud. que está muy satisfecho y más bien satisfecho; no muy satisfecho y nada satisfecho con el funcionamiento de la economía en (país)? Aquí ‘Muy Satisfecho’ más ‘Mas bien satisfecho’

30 Venezuela 54 Brasil 27 50 Uruguay 24 42 México 37 35 Argentina 37 19 16 Chile 36 30 República Dominicana 34 Costa Rica 30 25 Colombia 28 Bolivia 28 20 Honduras 27 Panama 25 15 Guatemala 25 Ecuador 19 10 Perú 19 El Salvador 19 5 Nicaragua 17 Paraguay10 0 Latin America 30

2002 2003 20040 2005 102030405060 2006

Source: Latinobarómetro 2002-2006 SATISFACCTION WITH PRIVATIZED BASIC SERVICE LATIN AMERICA 2003–2006 / TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2006

P. Ahora que se han privatizado servicios públicos estatales, de agua, luz, etc. Tomando en cuenta el precio y la calidad ¿está Ud. hoy día mucho más satisfecho, más satisfecho, menos satisfecho o mucho menos satisfecho con los servicios privatizados?. Aquí sólo ‘Mucho más satisfecho’ más ‘Satisfecho’ Bolivia 45 50 Brasil 44 Argentina 44 Venezuela 42 40 México 42 Ecuador 38 Chile 32 30 30 Colombia 32 26 República Dominicana 32 Perú 30 20 Guatemala 28 18 16 Honduras 27 El Salvador 22 10 Panamá 22 Costa Rica 20 Paraguay 19 0 Nicaragua 13 2003 2004 2005 2006 Latin America 30

0 102030405060

Source: Latinobarómetro 2003-2006. TIME REQUIRED TO BECOME A DEVELOPED COUNTRY LATIN AMERICA, 2002-2006 Is already a developed 3 Q. How long do you think it will 3take (country) to become a developed country? country 3 Will never be a developed 14 17 country 20 14 More than 30 years 14 18 13 Between 20 and 30 years 11 12 21 Between 10 and 20 years 19 17 18 Between 5 and 10 years 17 13 6 Less than 5 years 6 4 12 DNK/DNA 13 12

0 10203040506070

2002 2005 2006

Source: Latinobarómetro 2002-2006. The role of the state RESPECT OR IGNORE THE LAW? LATIN AMERICA 2006

P. ¿Cuál de las siguientes frases está más cerca de su manera de pensar? A. Es importante encontrar soluciones legales a las cosas aunque tarde más. B. A veces es mejor ignorar la ley para resolver un problema inmediatamente.

DN/DA 5

Sometimes is better 26 ignore the law A limited rule of law

Legal solutions are 70 important

0 102030405060708090100

Source: Latinobarómetro 2006. n= 20.234 INDEX OF SATISFATION WITH BASIC SERVICE AND SUPPORT AND SATISFATION WITH DEMOCRACY LATIN AMERICA 2006

Indice de Satisfacción con Servicios Básicos fue constriuido a partir de las preguntas P80st.a-P80n.h. Alto es cuando el Índice toma valores 7 y 8, Medio cuando el Índice toma valores 4,5 o 6, y Bajo cuando toma valores menores a 4.

38 Absent state Support for democracy 62

78

13 Satisfaction with 32 democracy 62

0 1020304050607080 Low satisfaction with basic service index Medium satisfaction with basic services index High satisfaction with basic service index

Source: Latinobarómetro 2006 GOVERNMENT FOR WHOM? LATIN AMERICA, 2005-2006

Q. In general, would you say (country) is governed for the benefit of a few powerful groups or is governed for the good of all?

26 Good of all No representation of the majority 24

Benefit of powerful 69 groups 72

5 DNK/DNA 4

0 102030405060708090100

2005 2006

Source: Latinobarómetro 2005-2006. EFFECTIVENESS OF THE VOTE: WHICH IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY TO CHANGE THINGS? LATIN AMERICA, 2006

Q. What is the most effective way in which you can contribute to change things: vote to elect people who defend your position, participate in protest movements and demand change directly, or do you think that it’s not possible to contribute to change things? Vote for people who defend my position 57

It's not possible to contribute to change 19

Participate in protest movements and demand 14 change directly Civic rebels :When nothing else works,

None of the above 6

DNK/DNA 4

0 102030405060

Source: Latinobarómetro 2006. n= 20.234 TAKING PART IN AN AUTHORIZED DEMONSTRATION LATIN AMERICA, 1995-2006 / TOTALS BY COUNTRY, 2006

Q. I am going to read out a variety of political activities that people can undertake and I would like you to tell me if you have ever done any of them, if you would ever do any of them, or if you would never do any of them. Taking part in an authorized demonstration. Answer shown ‘Have done this’.

Venezuela 26 Organized protest has no power Uruguay 20 Paraguay 16 50 Brazil 16 Dominican Rep. 14 Colombia 14 25 2340 Costa Rica 13 Guatemala 12 21 Peru 17 12 30 Nicaragua 11 14 13 12 Honduras 12 11 Bolivia 11 20 Mexico 10 Chile 9 Argentina 9 10 Panama 7 Ecuador 6 El Salvador 0 2 Latin America 12 1995 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 0 1020304050

Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2006 TRUST TRUST GLOBAL BAROMETER Here those who no do not trust by continent

East Asia 42

Africa 51

New Europe 56

Latinamerica 75

0 1020304050607080

Trust

Q. Generally speaking, would you say that you can trust most people, or that you can never be too careful when dealing with others? Here only “You can trust most people” Source: LATINOBARÓMETRO 1996-2003 / ABROBAROMETER 1999-2001 INTERPERSONAL TRUST LATIN AMERICA, 1996-2006 / TOTALS BY COUNTRY, 2006

Q. Generally speaking, would you say that you can trust most people, or that you can never be too careful when dealing with others? *Answer shown ‘One can trust most people’.

Guatemala 30 32 Uruguay 32 Venezuela 29 25 Ecuador 29 23 Mexico 28 22 21 Dominican Rep. 27 20 20 Argentina 19 19 24 Honduras 17 17 23 16 16 Bolivia 15 23 Peru 22 Latin America is not an Open Society. Nicaragua 21 10 Judging the region with this template Colombia 20 can only confuse its understanding. El Salvador 17 Costa Rica 17 5 Panama 13 Paraguay 13 Chile 0 13 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Brazil 5 Latin America 22 0 1020304050

Source: Latinobarómetro 1996-2006 Structure of trust

• No open society Trust 22% • Network Trust: based on experience and interaction. High • Trust in Democratic trust is related to high levels of Institutions depends on interaction: Experience and expectations: »Trust • Work related contact 60% Trust in all institutions are tied • Neighbours 51% together, it is a system trust • A relative you have that depends on: never seen is also not Equality before the law trustworthy 24% Social mobility Access to opportunities. TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS LATIN AMERICA 1996 - 2006

P. Por favor, mire esta tarjeta y dígame, cuánta confianza tiene en cada uno de estos grupos/instituciones. ¿Diría que tiene mucha, algo, poca o ninguna confianza en....? *Aquí ‘Mucha’ más ‘Algo’.

62 71 72 77 74 78 76 3132 34 37 71 71 Municipalities 36 45 49 Church 42 45 29 33 37 46Structure of trust 2930 37 64 32 36 38 44 Will not change until Policy 30 30 38 TV 38 20 36 43 25 27 3132 38 42 Societies50 change 34 41 Judiciary 32 36 4244 40 33 31 24 Army forces 30 25 30 36 39 28 3839 Government 47 37 43 17 23 2728 27 36 24 24 President 2728 Parliament 27 36 39 41 11 14 19 22 192018 Banks Political Parties 21 28

0 102030405060708090 20

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1996199719981999-2000200120022003200420052006

Source: Latinobarómetro 1996-2006. Increasing Legitimacy of Presidentialism: Renovation of elites APPROVAL OF GOVERNMENT TOTAL LATIN AMERICA, 2002-2006 / BY COUNTRY, 2006

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of the government headed by (NAME OF PRESIDENT OF COUNTRY)? Answer shown ‘Approve’.

60 54 55 50 49 45 42 Argentina 73 40 38 Colombia 70 36 Chile 67 35 Venezuela 65 Uruguay 62 30 Governments are learning to Brazil 62 Dominican Rep. 61 25 Satisfy peoples expectations the Mexico 60 hard way, 14 presidents have not Panama 57 20 Peru 57 finished their term. Honduras 56 Costa Rica 56 15 Bolivia 54 El Salvador 48 10 Guatemala 45 Paraguay 33 5 Nicaragua 23 Ecuador 23 0 Latin America 54 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060 1020304050607080

Source: Latinobarómetro 2002-2006 Another priest in a different Mule Latin America is celebrating 200 years of independence, and as mexican peasants used to say after their independence, it was just “another priest in a different mule” . Democracy is making it possible for the first time in history for the population of the region to get rid of that priest and keeping the mule. Latinobarometro does not find undemocratic people in the incongruencies of attitudes towards democracy, but undemocratic institutions that by far are not what they say the are. Changing the priest means democratizing the system in such a way that there is a state for all, and that all have in fact equality before the law. Incongruence is about undemocratic structures of societies that need change. Keeping the mule , changing the priest

Elite change has been the most powerfull tool to democratize, to change the priest, especially in native dominated countries that had never had access to citizenship. There are so many democratic reasons for ingovernability. It has proven to be a tool when the old powers are unwilling to give in. Many more ingovernable spots will be the case, meaning Latin America is marching towards democracy. Democracy is a second independence, while the political independence took place 200 years ago, the social and economic independence is taking place with Democracy.