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Wmo Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2005

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Wmo Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2005 WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2005 40˚N 40˚N 20˚N 20˚N 28 26 24 22 0˚ 100˚W 20 80˚W 60˚W 40˚W 20˚W 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 World Meteorological Organization Weather • Climate • Water WMO-No. 998 2 WMO-No. 998 © 2006, World Meteorological Organization ISBN: 92-63-10998-2 Front cover: Top: Tracks of the hurricanes in the 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season. (Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, United States) Bottom: Annual number of named storms (blue) and major hurricanes (red) in the North Atlantic Ocean for the period 1945-2005. (Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, United States) Back cover: Left: Mean total ozone (in Dobson units) over the southern hemisphere during September 2005 based on ground-based measurements. (Source: World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre, Environment Canada) Right: Accumulated precipitation anomalies (departures in millimetres from a 1979-2000 base period) during the 2005 May to August season for Europe. Green indicates areas that received above normal precipitation during the period while pink depicts those regions that were drier than normal. Areas in white show regions where departures are within +/- 25 mm of the average seasonal value. Precipitation values are obtained by merging rain-gauge observations and satellite-derived precipitation estimates. (Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, United States) NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This statement is a summary of the information provided by the Hadley Centre of The Met Office, United Kingdom, the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; and the National Climatic Data Center and the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration World (NOAA), United States. Other contributors were from the following WMO Member countries: Argentina, Meteorological Australia, Canada, China, Fiji, France, Germany, India, Japan, Mauritius, Morocco, New Zealand, Norway and Organization Sweden, as well as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, United States, the IGAD Weather • Climate • Water Climate Prediction and Applications Centre in Nairobi and the AGRHYMET Regional Centre in Niamey. Geneva - Switzerland 3 FOREWORD The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), through decades. The least developed countries are more the Commission for Climatology and in cooperation with affected by these hazards. The adequate integration of its Members, has issued annual statements on the risk assessment and early warnings, with prevention and status of the global climate for the past 12 years. The mitigation measures, can prevent natural hazards from statement for 2005 describes extreme weather and becoming disasters. The role of WMO and the National climate events and provides a historical perspective on Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) is the variability and trends of surface temperatures that therefore fundamental in the identification, assessment have occurred since the nineteenth century. The state- and monitoring of risks and the provision of early ments complement the periodic assessments of the warnings. In the longer term, climate changes could WMO/UNEP sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on result in increased frequency of some extreme events Climate Change (IPCC) and are intended to provide cred- such as heatwaves, droughts and floods. For sustainable ible scientific information on climate and its variability. development, there is a need for a better monitoring and The year 2005 was most likely one of the two understanding of the climate system as well as the warmest years on record since 1850. The 2005 hurricane further development of capabilities for predicting natural season saw some of the most destructive hurricanes on climate variability and human-induced climate change. record, which claimed more than 3 000 lives in Central A major challenge for the meteorological and America and the United States. Disastrous floods and hydrological communities is to work towards a major landslides due to extreme precipitation events were also reduction of the fatality rate associated with natural reported worldwide. Prolonged drought conditions disasters. Enhanced weather, climate and hydrological continued to affect parts of Africa, Australia and the services are being implemented to contribute to reduc- western United States. In 2005, western parts of Europe ing the adverse human, social and economic impacts of were also under the grip of a severe drought. Arctic sea natural disasters and extreme weather and climate ice during September 2005 was the lowest on record and events. Through its Programmes, WMO contributes below the average for the fourth consecutive year. The actively to the timely provision of authoritative climate ozone hole in 2005 was the third largest recorded after statements, assessments and reviews for the benefit of 2000 and 2003. In December, central Europe and central humankind in the twenty-first century. and eastern parts of Asia experienced significantly colder than average temperatures. The impacts of climate variability and climate change, especially extreme events on human and natural systems, pose numerous challenges to sustainable development. In 2005, damages and casualties caused by extreme weather and climate events were high and alarming. The economic impact of natural disasters has (M. Jarraud) shown a marked upward trend over the last several Secretary-General 4 GLOBAL TEMPERATURES 0.6 Figure 1 — Combined ( ) Global DURING 2005 0.4 a annual land (near surface) 0.2 and sea surface temperature The analyses made by various leading centres 0.0 anomalies from 1861-2005 (departures in degrees indicate that the global mean surface temper- −0.2 Celsius from the average in ature in 2005 was 0.47°C to 0.58°C above the −0.4 the 1961-1990 base period) −0.6 1961-1990 annual average of 14°C. This places for: (a) the globe; (b) the 2005 as one of the two warmest years in the −0.8 northern hemisphere; (c) the −1.0 temperature record since 1850. (The year Tropics (30°N-30°S); and 1998 had annual surface temperatures aver- (d) the southern hemisphere. aging 0.52°C* above the same 30-year mean.) 1.0 The solid red curves have had 0.8 (b) Northern hemisphere The last 10 years, 1996-2005, with the excep- 0.6 sub-decadal timescale tion of 1996 and 2000, are the warmest years 0.4 variations smoothed with a 0.2 binomial filter. Anomalies on record. 0.0 (in degrees Celsius) for 2005 The latest improved analysis of global −0.2 temperature made by the Hadley Centre, The −0.4 are: (a) +0.47; (b) +0.65; Met Office, UK, marks the year as the second −0.6 (c) +0.45; and (d) +0.28. −0.8 (Sources: Hadley Centre, warmest (0.47°C above average). Based on −1.0 −1.2 The Met Office, UK, similar improved temperature analyses, but and Climatic Research different methodology, the National Climatic 0.8 Unit, University of Data Center, NOAA, United States, ranks 2005 0.6 (c) Tropics (30°N-30°S) East Anglia, UK) as the warmest year (0.52°C above the 1961- 0.4 1990 annual average). The analysis of the 0.2 NOTE: There are some Goddard Institute of Space Studies, United 1961-1990 (°C) from Difference 0.0 differences in annual States, also ranks the year as the warmest −0.2 anomalies between the (0.58°C above the 1951-1980 annual average). −0.4 present and earlier WMO All the temperature values have uncertainties, −0.6 statements. In this new which arise mainly from gaps in data coverage. −0.8 analysis, more quality- −1.0 improved, sea surface The sizes of the uncertainties are such that temperature and land the global average temperature for 2005 is 0.4 station data have been used. statistically indistinguishable from that of 0.2 (d) Southern hemisphere 1998. Based on the Hadley Centre analyses, 0.0 averaged separately for both hemispheres, −0.2 surface temperatures in 2005 for the northern −0.4 *This value is based on the new hemisphere (0.65°C above the 1961-1990 aver- −0.6 temperature analysis of the age) were the warmest and for the southern −0.8 Hadley Centre, UK, introduced hemisphere (0.28°C above the 1961-1990 aver- −1.0 for the first time this year. In the earlier temperature analysis, −1.2 age) were the fifth warmest in the instrumental the temperature anomaly value 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 record from 1850 to the present. for 1998 was +0.54°C. 5 Since the beginning of the twentieth 90th percentile). Parts of the North Atlantic century, the global average surface tempera- and Indian Oceans had warm temperatures ture has increased by about 0.6°C. However, exceeding the 98th percentile. Only a few small this increase has not been continuous and has areas in the southern hemisphere experienced Figure 2 — Global annual risen sharply since 1976. temperatures below the 10th percentile. temperature anomaly Areas of significant warmth were wide- The large-scale climate phenomenon El percentiles for 2005 based on a gamma distribution for spread with large areas of Africa, Australia, Niño can contribute to above average warmth, the 1961-1990 base period, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Scandinavia, as was the case with the extremely strong calculated in five-degree grid Canada, China and the south-west United 1997/1998 episode. A weak El Niño episode boxes. Orange and red States showing significantly above average that developed in mid-2004 continued through indicate regions where the temperatures.
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