George Gallup: Highlights of His Life and Work
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13 Collecting Statistical Data
13 Collecting Statistical Data 13.1 The Population 13.2 Sampling 13.3 Random Sampling 1.1 - 1 • Polls, studies, surveys and other data collecting tools collect data from a small part of a larger group so that we can learn something about the larger group. • This is a common and important goal of statistics: Learn about a large group by examining data from some of its members. 1.1 - 2 Data collections of observations (such as measurements, genders, survey responses) 1.1 - 3 Statistics is the science of planning studies and experiments, obtaining data, and then organizing, summarizing, presenting, analyzing, interpreting, and drawing conclusions based on the data 1.1 - 4 Population the complete collection of all individuals (scores, people, measurements, and so on) to be studied; the collection is complete in the sense that it includes all of the individuals to be studied 1.1 - 5 Census Collection of data from every member of a population Sample Subcollection of members selected from a population 1.1 - 6 A Survey • The practical alternative to a census is to collect data only from some members of the population and use that data to draw conclusions and make inferences about the entire population. • Statisticians call this approach a survey (or a poll when the data collection is done by asking questions). • The subgroup chosen to provide the data is called the sample, and the act of selecting a sample is called sampling. 1.1 - 7 A Survey • The first important step in a survey is to distinguish the population for which the survey applies (the target population) and the actual subset of the population from which the sample will be drawn, called the sampling frame. -
Preface Chapter 1
Notes Preface 1. Alfred Pearce Dennis, “Humanizing the Department of Commerce,” Saturday Evening Post, June 6, 1925, 8. 2. Herbert Hoover, Memoirs: The Cabinet and the Presidency, 1920–1930 (New York: Macmillan, 1952), 184. 3. Herbert Hoover, “The Larger Purposes of the Department of Commerce,” in “Republi- can National Committee, Brief Review of Activities and Policies of the Federal Executive Departments,” Bulletin No. 6, 1928, Herbert Hoover Papers, Campaign and Transition Period, Box 6, “Subject: Republican National Committee,” Hoover Presidential Library, West Branch, Iowa. 4. Herbert Hoover, “Responsibility of America for World Peace,” address before national con- vention of National League of Women Voters, Des Moines, Iowa, April 11, 1923, Bible no. 303, Hoover Presidential Library. 5. Bruce Bliven, “Hoover—And the Rest,” Independent, May 29, 1920, 275. Chapter 1 1. John W. Hallowell to Arthur (Hallowell?), November 21, 1918, Hoover Papers, Pre-Com- merce Period, Hoover Presidential Library, West Branch, Iowa, Box 6, “Hallowell, John W., 1917–1920”; Julius Barnes to Gertrude Barnes, November 27 and December 5, 1918, ibid., Box 2, “Barnes, Julius H., Nov. 27, 1918–Jan. 17, 1919”; Lewis Strauss, “Further Notes for Mr. Irwin,” ca. February 1928, Subject File, Lewis L. Strauss Papers, Hoover Presidential Library, West Branch, Iowa, Box 10, “Campaign of 1928: Campaign Literature, Speeches, etc., Press Releases, Speeches, etc., 1928 Feb.–Nov.”; Strauss, handwritten notes, December 1, 1918, ibid., Box 76, “Strauss, Lewis L., Diaries, 1917–19.” 2. The men who sailed with Hoover to Europe on the Olympic on November 18, 1918, were Julius Barnes, Frederick Chatfi eld, John Hallowell, Lewis Strauss, Robert Taft, and Alonzo Taylor. -
Has Polling Enhanced Representation? Unearthing Evidence from the Literary Digest Issue Polls
Studies in American Political Development, 21 (Spring 2007), 16–29. Has Polling Enhanced Representation? Unearthing Evidence from the Literary Digest Issue Polls David Karol, University of California, Berkeley How has representation changed over time in the Institutional reforms are not, however, the only United States? Has responsiveness to public opinion factors that can affect representation; technological waxed or waned among elected officials? What are change can also play a significant role. In fact, some the causes of such trends as we observe? Scholars scholars contend that the rise of scientific surveys have pursued these crucial questions in different since the 1930s has yielded more responsive govern- ways. Some explore earlier eras in search of the “elec- ment. According to this school of thought, polls toral connection”, i.e. the extent to which voters held provide recent cohorts of elected officials more accu- office-holders accountable for their actions and the rate assessments of public opinion than their prede- degree to which electoral concerns motivated poli- cessors enjoyed, which allows them to reflect their ticians’ behavior.1 Others explore the effects of insti- constituents’ views to a greater extent than the tutional changes such as the move to direct election politicians of yesteryear. Yet others doubt whether of senators or the “reapportionment revolution.”2 politicians were truly ignorant of public sentiment before the rise of the poll; nor is there much certainty regarding the level of current politicians’ understand- I thank Larry Bartels, Terri Bimes, Ben Bishin, Ben Fordham, ing of constituent opinion. Some also question John Geer, Brian Glenn, Susan Herbst, Mark Kayser, Brian Lawson, whether ignorance is at the root of elected officials’ Taeku Lee, Eileen McDonagh and Eric Plutzer for comments along frequent divergence from their constituents’ wishes. -
AP Statistics
AP Statistics 1 SAMPLING C H A P 11 The idea that the examination of a relatively small number of randomly selected individuals can furnish dependable information about the characteristics of a vast unseen universe is an idea so powerful that only familiarity makes it cease to be exciting. Helen Mary Walker (1891 - 1983) What is Sampling? 2 We want to know something about a population (a mean or proportion, for example), but it isn’t possible to go out and obtain the information from every member of the population (called a census). So we take a “random sample” from the population, obtain information about the sample, and then use the sample information to estimate what we would get if we could reach the entire population. What is Sampling? 3 The information we want to know about the population is called a parameter. The information we get from the sample is called a statistic. We use the statistic to provide an estimate of the parameter. Sample Population Notation 4 Name Statistic Parameter Meany (mu) Standard Deviations (sigma) Correlationr (rho) Regression coefficientb (beta) Proportionppˆ (pi -- but we will use ) Surveys 5 A survey is a common way to get information from a population of people. Follow your favorite news source and you will hear nearly every day the phrase “In a recent survey …” A survey generally consists of questions asked of a selected group (the sample) in order to obtain an estimate of the opinions of the population (U.S. voters, for example). Sampling Variability 6 Different samples will produce different results. -
Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes Toaward the Public Schools by Stanley M
THE 27TH ANNUAL Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll Of the Public's Attitudes Toaward the Public Schools By Stanley M. Elam and Lowell C. Rose HE 1995 Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes To ward the Public Schools, number 27 in the annual series, features in depth exploration of a number of significant national education issues. Among these are the public's grading of its schools; its level of aware ness of educational issues; participation by the federal, state, and local governments in policy and financial decisions involving local schools; public and nonpublic school choice; higher achievement standards for students; inclusion of special education students in reg ular classrooms; financial assistance for college attendance; school prayer; the biggest problems facing the schools; violence in the schools; and ways of dealing with disruptive students. _ ~ / a \ < \ \ A summary of the important findings follows: M People continue to rate the schools in their own communities much high er than they rate the nation's schools. And the closer people get to the schools, the higher the ratings. Almost two-thirds (65%) of public school 7 k& parents assign a grade of A or B to the school their oldest child attends. M Lack of discipline and lack of financial support are viewed as the major problems facing the schools. Fighting/violence/gangs, tied for first in the list of problems a year ago, is now third, followed by the use of drugs. * People view lack of parental control and the breakdown of family life as the major causes of what they see as an in 1, P K/\ \ \ \ \ \ crease in school violence. -
World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys, 1981–1984, 1990–1993, and 1995–1997
ICPSR Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys, 1981–1984, 1990–1993, and 1995–1997 Ronald Inglehart et al. ICPSR 2790 WORLD VALUES SURVEYS AND EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEYS, 1981-1984, 1990-1993, AND 1995-1997 (ICPSR 2790) Principal Investigators Ronald Inglehart et al. University of Michigan Institute for Social Research First ICPSR Version February 2000 Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research P.O. Box 1248 Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 BIBLIOGRAPHIC CITATION Publications based on ICPSR data collections should acknowledge those sources by means of bibliographic citations. To ensure that such source attributions are captured for social science bibliographic utilities, citations must appear in footnotes or in the reference section of publications. The bibliographic citation for this data collection is: Inglehart, Ronald, et al. WORLD VALUES SURVEYS AND EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEYS, 1981-1984, 1990- 1993, and 1995-1997 [Computer file]. ICPSR version. Ann Arbor, MI: Institute for Social Research [producer], 2000. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2000. REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON USE OF ICPSR RESOURCES To provide funding agencies with essential information about use of archival resources and to facilitate the exchange of information about ICPSR participants' research activities, users of ICPSR data are requested to send to ICPSR bibliographic citations for each completed manuscript or thesis abstract. Please indicate in a cover letter which data were used. DATA DISCLAIMER The original collector of the data, ICPSR, and the relevant funding agency bear no responsibility for uses of this collection or for interpretations or inferences based upon such uses. -
An Analysis of the Gallup Poll Data Regarding the Public's Assessment of the Public Schools from 1986-1995
Loyola University Chicago Loyola eCommons Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 1998 An Analysis of the Gallup Poll Data Regarding the Public's Assessment of the Public Schools from 1986-1995 Biancalana Venette Meucci Loyola University Chicago Follow this and additional works at: https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss Part of the Education Commons Recommended Citation Meucci, Biancalana Venette, "An Analysis of the Gallup Poll Data Regarding the Public's Assessment of the Public Schools from 1986-1995" (1998). Dissertations. 3742. https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss/3742 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at Loyola eCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Loyola eCommons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. Copyright © 1998 Biancalana Venette Meucci LOYOLA UNIVERSITY CHICAGO AN ANALYSIS OF THE GALLUP POLL DATA REGARDING THE PUBLIC'S ASSESSMENT OF THE PUBLIC SCHOOLS FROM 1986-1995 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONAL LEADERSHIP AND POLICY STUDIES BY VENETTE MEUCCI BIANCALANA CHICAGO, ILLINOIS MAY, 1998 Copyright by Venette Meucci Biancalana, 1998 All rights reserved. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The researcher offers her deepest appreciation to her committee: Dr. Art Safer, committee chairperson, for his expertise, guidance and encouragement; Dr. Max Bailey for generously giving of his time and for his useful suggestions; and Dr. Phil Carlin for his advice and assistance. A special thank you is given to Dr. -
UC Santa Barbara UC Santa Barbara Electronic Theses and Dissertations
UC Santa Barbara UC Santa Barbara Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Campaign spheres in Latin America: How institutions affect digital media in presidential elections Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0026d2q5 Author Brandao, Francisco Publication Date 2017 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Santa Barbara Campaign spheres in Latin America: How institutions affect digital media in presidential elections A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Francisco de Assis Fernandes Brandão Junior Committee in charge: Professor Bruce Bimber, Chair Professor Kathleen Bruhn Professor Matto Mildenberger Professor Michael Stohl January 2018 The dissertation of Francisco Brandão Jr. is approved. ___________________________________________ Kathleen Bruhn ___________________________________________ Matto Mildenberger ___________________________________________ Michael Stohl ___________________________________________ Bruce Bimber, Committee Chair December 2017 Campaign spheres in Latin America: How institutions affect digital media in presidential elections Copyright © 2018 by Francisco de Assis Fernandes Brandão Junior iii Dedication In memory of the students who lost their lives in Isla Vista, on May 23 2014, praying that God brings peace and heals their families, friends, this great community and country. Let there be light! To my mother, who always wondered what would be her life if she hadn`t dropped Graduate School to raise her children. To my wife and daughter, who were together with me in this journey. iv Acknowledgements Some might think it is a truism when graduate students write on their dissertations how much they owe to their graduate advisors for the satisfaction of getting the job done. -
66Th Annual Conference
66th Annual Conference Public Perception & Societal Conflict Conference Program May 12 – 15, 2011 Arizona Grand Resort Phoenix, AZ www.aapor.org 2 AAPOR 66th Annual Conference Table of Contents Welcome to Phoenix, Arizona ....................................................................................... 5 General Meeting Information ......................................................................................... 7 Plenary Session ............................................................................................................8 – 11 AAPOR Executive Council ...................................................................................17 – 20 Chapter Presidents ......................................................................................................... 20 Past Presidents ...................................................................................................................21 Honorary Life Members .................................................................................................22 Executive Office Staff .....................................................................................................23 Committees/Task Forces .................................................................................... 23 – 32 Award Winners ........................................................................................................33 – 35 Committee Meetings & Social Activities ....................................................... 36 – 37 Schedule of Events .............................................................................................. -
Gallupuv Ústav
Portrét Gallupův ústav: Co si myslí občan, divák a konzument I Michal Šimůnek I Gallupův ústav (The Gallup Organization) zaujímá přední místo na světě v oblasti výzkumu veřejného mínění, přičemž se specializuje zejména na mínění „veřejnosti občanů“, „veřejnosti konzumentů“ a „veřejnosti diváků“. Z perspekti- vy tématu tohoto čísla Revue pro média jsou nejvýznamnější Gallupovy výzkumy mediálních publik, avšak dotýkají se jej i výzkumy veřejného mínění občanů a chování spotřebitelů.1 Ve všech třech případech přitom platí, že informace, které Gallupův ústav poskytuje, mají pro politiky, psychology, sociální vědce, producenty a manažery podobný význam, jako má zpravodajství The Wall Street Journal pro finančníky. George Gallup a zrod Gallupova ústavu Prezidentské volby v roce 1936 Gallupův ústav je dnes nadnárodní společností, zabývající se Aby Gallup pro výsledky svých šetření získal dostatek předpla- širokou škálou aktivit v oblasti manažerského poradenství, vzdě- titelů, uzavřel s nimi smlouvu, která měla charakter značně ris- lávání, reklamy, výzkumu veřejného mínění, chování spotřebite- kantní sázky. George Gallup se upnul k prezidentským volbách lů a mediálních publik. Ústav je pojmenován po Dr. Georgu v roce 1936 a napadl stávající praxi některých velkých deníků H. Gallupovi (1901–1984), který inicioval politické průzkumy (nejvýznamnějším byl The Literary Digest, který správně před- veřejného mínění2 a který byl zakladatelem počátečních aktivit pověděl výsledky všech prezidentských voleb od roku 1916), ústavu. které prováděly rozsáhlé předvolební výzkumy veřejného míně- Po studiu žurnalistiky a psychologie na University of Iowa ní na několikamilionových, leč dle Gallupa přesto nereprezenta- a následné výuce těchto oborů na celé řadě amerických univerzit tivních vzorcích populace. Součástí Gallupovy „sázky“ s před- začal Gallup počátkem 30. -
The Micro Foundations of Presidential Approval
The Micro Foundations of Presidential Approval Peter K. Enns Assistant Professor Cornell University [email protected] October 13, 2007 Abstract The \miracle of aggregation" has become the key to understanding how an unin- terested and uninformed electorate can produce systematic and responsive presidential approval. This paper, however, presents a set of theoretical considerations, which pre- dict that not only do the least informed contribute to aggregate measures of presidential approval, but that the most and least informed update their attitudes in tandem. To test this hypothesis of uniform opinion change, I analyze subgroup and individual level presidential approval with quarterly, monthly, and daily data. The results suggest a reconsideration of how we think about public opinion in the United States. Although subtle di®erences exist across information groups, all segments of the public translate economic and political information into their presidential evaluations. Peter K. Enns, Department of Government, Cornell University, [email protected] previous version of this paper was presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Amer- ican Political Science Association, Chicago, IL. I would like to thank Chris Anderson and Greg McAvoy for helpful comments and Matthew Martell and Patrick Healy for research assistance. This research received ¯nancial support from the National Science Foundation (Grant 0617156) and the University of North Carolina's American Politics Research Group. \Do you approve or disapprove of the way [the incumbent] is handling his job as president?" is the longest running and most frequent poll question asked to the American public. And answers to this question exert a tremendous influence on U.S. -
Ericka Menchen-Trevino
Ericka Menchen-Trevino 7/24/2020 c COPYRIGHT by Kurt Wirth July 23, 2020 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PREDICTING CHANGES IN PUBLIC OPINION WITH TWITTER: WHAT SOCIAL MEDIA DATA CAN AND CAN'T TELL US ABOUT OPINION FORMATION by Kurt Wirth ABSTRACT With the advent of social media data, some researchers have claimed they have the potential to revolutionize the measurement of public opinion. Others have pointed to non-generalizable methods and other concerns to suggest that the role of social media data in the field is limited. Likewise, researchers remain split as to whether automated social media accounts, or bots, have the ability to influence con- versations larger than those with their direct audiences. This dissertation examines the relationship between public opinion as measured by random sample surveys, Twitter sentiment, and Twitter bot activity. Analyzing Twitter data on two topics, the president and the economy, as well as daily public polling data, this dissertation offers evidence that changes in Twitter sentiment of the president predict changes in public approval of the president fourteen days later. Likewise, it shows that changes in Twit- ter bot sentiment of both the president and the economy predict changes in overall Twitter sentiment on those topics between one and two days later. The methods also reveal a previously undiscovered phenomenon by which Twitter sentiment on a topic moves counter to polling approval of the topic at a seven-day interval. This dissertation also discusses the theoretical implications of various methods of calculating social media sentiment. Most importantly, its methods were pre-registered so as to maximize the generalizability of its findings and avoid data cherry-picking or overfitting.