DOCSLIB.ORG

Cross-National Public Opinion on Climate Change: the Effects of Afºuence and Vulnerability • So Young Kim and Yael Wolinsky-Nahmias*

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Cross-National Public Opinion on Climate Change: the Effects of Afºuence and Vulnerability • So Young Kim and Yael Wolinsky-Nahmias* Cross-National Public Opinion on Climate Change So Young Kim and Yael Wolinsky-Nahmias Cross-National Public Opinion on Climate Change: The Effects of Afºuence and Vulnerability • So Young Kim and Yael Wolinsky-Nahmias* Climate change has emerged as one of the most important issues of the twenty- ªrst century. The World Bank focused its 2010 annual World Development Report on the challenges of climate change. Countries, individually and collec- tively, have instituted comprehensive policies to curb greenhouse gases, includ- ing Germany’s 2008 Climate Initiative, the UK’s 2010 Climate Change Plan, and the European Union’s 2013 Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change. The urgent need to address and adapt to climate change requires both new public policies and changes in individual behavior. As a complex global and scientiªc issue, climate change presents unprecedented political, economic, and moral challenges. Two aspects of climate change in particular—the high eco- nomic costs of reducing carbon emissions and the long-term horizon of global warming—are barriers to signiªcant policy changes. Despite the growing recog- nition of the need for international climate policy, the 2009 Copenhagen Con- vention of the Parties failed to agree on a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Understanding public attitudes toward climate change and the costs and beneªts of government action to address it is essential for designing effective cli- mate policies and for changing individual behavior. Public concern about cli- mate change has increased signiªcantly over the past two decades. Recent polls show that large majorities in all countries surveyed are now moderately or highly concerned about climate change.1 Yet public support for climate policies and for changing personal behavior has been slower to develop. Furthermore, signiªcant cross-national variation in attitudes toward climate policies persists, and on certain issues cross-country differences have increased over time.2 These trends are surprising given the greater global dissemination of the scientiªc evi- dence of anthropogenic climate change.3 * We are very grateful to Dennis Chong of the University of Southern California and three anony- mous referees for their thoughtful comments on this paper. 1. World Public Opinion 2007, 2009, 2011. 2. Wolinsky-Nahmias and Kim 2009. 3. IPCC 2007, World Bank 2012. Global Environmental Politics 14:1, February 2014, doi:10.1162/GLEP_a_00215 © 2014 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology 79 80 • Cross-National Public Opinion on Climate Change In this article we examine recent trends in international attitudes toward climate change by exploring public support for government action and for changing personal behavior. Our approach to these issues differs from previous studies in two important ways. First, we examine public attitudes using multiple cross-national surveys conducted by the BBC World Service, Pew Global Atti- tudes Project, the World Bank, and other organizations. This examination facili- tates analysis of variation among and between developed and developing soci- eties. Using repeated surveys of the same countries and several measures of speciªc issues allows us to construct reliable indicators of public opinion to- ward climate change. Second, instead of looking exclusively at measures of gen- eral concern, we study responses to more detailed questions that reºect the in- tensity of public concern on this issue, the degree of support for speciªc policies, and the willingness to change individual behavior. Although surveys show considerable international concern about climate change, we found signiªcant cross-national variation in intensity of concern, support for domestic and international policies, and propensity to change indi- vidual behavior. To explain such variation, we tested the impact of two key na- tional factors—economic afºuence and vulnerability to climate change. Eco- nomic afºuence, represented by GDP per capita, indicates a country’s material and technological capacity to address climate change and the economic security of its citizens. Climate vulnerability reºects the susceptibility of a country to a variety of risks and hazards associated with climate change such as drought, ºooding, and soil erosion. Our analysis shows that a national population’s attitudes toward climate change are not straightforwardly related to its afºuence and climate vulnerabil- ity. Citizens in developed nations tend to be less concerned about climate change and less supportive of certain climate policies than those in developing nations. These ªndings support earlier critiques of the post-materialism hypoth- esis, which suggests that developed countries will place greater priority on envi- ronmental issues. We also found that while a country’s susceptibility to climate change does not explain cross-national variation in levels of concern, it does correlate with people’s willingness to pay for climate policies. These results help explain the dynamics and intensity of international atti- tudes toward climate change. Although the inºuence of public opinion on cli- mate policy is a separate research issue, our analysis offers insight about politi- cally feasible climate policies that can garner public support. In this article we review the literature on cross-national variation in public opinion on climate change. We then present the survey data and our ªndings and discuss the impli- cations of our analysis.4 4. We focus on cross-national variation and include individual-level variations within countries only in one multi-level regression analysis. So Young Kim and Yael Wolinsky-Nahmias • 81 Aggregate Correlates of Climate Change Opinion International surveys have greatly expanded their coverage of questions related to climate change in the past ten years, following alarming scientiªc reports and growing international attention. More recently, high-impact storms (such as Hurricane Sandy, which ºooded much of New York City in October 2012) and growing evidence of the serious economic, social, and political implications of climate change have attracted broader media attention and public discussion.5 Reports and studies of international public opinion on climate change have shown cross-national differences in national attitudes but have remained largely descriptive in nature.6 Leiserowitz (2007) discussed several international surveys focusing on public awareness and risk perceptions of global warming and climate policy preferences and priorities. Brechin (2010) reviewed ªve inter- national surveys looking at public concern about and knowledge of global cli- mate change and public support for climate policies. These overviews cover a broad range of issues and generally show high levels of international public concern. Yet, few studies seek to explain cross-national variation in climate opin- ions. In his analysis of a survey encompassing forty-six countries, Sandvik found that public concern about global warming correlates negatively with national wealth. Tjerstrom and Tientenberg also found a negative correlation between per capita GDP and strong national climate policy. Kvaloy, Finseraas, and List- haug conducted a multi-level regression analysis of concern for global warming from the most recent wave of the World Values Survey (2005ϳ09) and found a negative coefªcient for GDP per capita, similar to Sandvik’s result.7 Economic development is perhaps the most widely studied explanation of cross-national variation in environmental attitudes. Following Maslow’s theory that humans have a hierarchy of needs, Ronald Inglehart’s post-materialism thesis suggested that people (and countries) with higher income levels would endorse environmental issues more than those with lower income levels because afºu- ent people are more likely to be interested in quality of life issues.8 Empirical re- search yielded mixed, but largely unsupportive, results. Some studies found a signiªcant correlation between national wealth and environmental attitudes.9 Other studies, however, found little if any evidence of such correlation.10 In sev- 5. Nisbet and Myers (2007) showed the proportion of the respondents who had heard of the “greenhouse effect” has soared from 39 percent in 1986 to more than 80 percent beginning in early 2000s. 6. Kull 2007; Leiserowitz 2007; Brechin 2010. Earlier cross-national studies including Brechin (2003) and Lorenzoni and Pidgeon (2006) focused on advanced countries. Dunlap (1998) cov- ered six countries including four developing nations. 7. Kvaloy et al. 2012; Sandvik 2008; Tjerstrom and Tientenberg 2008. 8. Inglehart 1981,1990; Maslow 1954. 9. Diekmann and Franzen 1999; Kemmelmeier et al. 2002. 10. Brechin and Kempton 1994; Brechin 1999; Dunlap et al. 1993; Dunlap and Mertig 1995; Dunlap and York 2008; Givens and Jorgenson 2011; Kidd and Lee 1997; Mostafa 2011. Givens 82 • Cross-National Public Opinion on Climate Change eral cross-national studies of environmental awareness and concern, Dunlap and his colleagues raised serious doubts about the post-materialism argument. Dunlap, Gallup, and Gallup (1993) found no signiªcant differences in the lev- els of environmental concern between rich and poor countries in their Health of the Planet (HOP) survey of twenty-four countries. More recently, Dunlap and York (2008) discovered widespread environmental awareness across wealthy and poor countries, which suggests rising global environmentalism. They pro- posed that environmental protection may actually be a materialistic concern for the
Load more

Recommended publications
  • George Gallup: Highlights of His Life and Work
    George Gallup: Highlights of His Life and Work PRE-BIOGRAPHY AND PRE-HISTORY Understanding the character of creative people and the significance of their achievements requires, in the first place, a study of their pre-biography, together with the pre-history of that branch of science, art or culture where their endeavors have taken place. In other words, the person’s biography is a product of both the genealogy and the environment in which his or her professional activity has taken place. The life and work of George Gallup in this sense are exemplary. In the first place, he belonged to a large family, whose members had vigorously participated in the development of the United States, and whose accomplishments and merits are recorded in the annals of the country. Secondly, even though the modern stage of public opinion research began with the pioneering work of George Gallup in 1935 and 1936, the study of electoral attitudes in the US had a long history prior to that. Accordingly, after examining the pre-biography of George Gallup, we will also review the pre-history of public opinion research. Tenth-Generation American For generations, the large Kollop family resided in Lotharingia (Lorraine). During the Middle Ages some of its descendants moved over to England, retaining the Gollop name. It is believed to have been forged from the German words Gott and Lobe, meaning respectively “God” and “praise”. Over time various spellings of the family name emerged: Gallop, Galloup, Galloupe, Gallupe, and Gollop, with the version prevalent in America becoming Gal- lup. A historical record has been preserved in England concerning John Gollop (born about 1440), who came ‘out of the North in the fifth year of the reign of Edward IV’ (1465).
    [Show full text]
  • Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes Toaward the Public Schools by Stanley M
    THE 27TH ANNUAL Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll Of the Public's Attitudes Toaward the Public Schools By Stanley M. Elam and Lowell C. Rose HE 1995 Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes To ward the Public Schools, number 27 in the annual series, features in depth exploration of a number of significant national education issues. Among these are the public's grading of its schools; its level of aware ness of educational issues; participation by the federal, state, and local governments in policy and financial decisions involving local schools; public and nonpublic school choice; higher achievement standards for students; inclusion of special education students in reg ular classrooms; financial assistance for college attendance; school prayer; the biggest problems facing the schools; violence in the schools; and ways of dealing with disruptive students. _ ~ / a \ < \ \ A summary of the important findings follows: M People continue to rate the schools in their own communities much high er than they rate the nation's schools. And the closer people get to the schools, the higher the ratings. Almost two-thirds (65%) of public school 7 k& parents assign a grade of A or B to the school their oldest child attends. M Lack of discipline and lack of financial support are viewed as the major problems facing the schools. Fighting/violence/gangs, tied for first in the list of problems a year ago, is now third, followed by the use of drugs. * People view lack of parental control and the breakdown of family life as the major causes of what they see as an in 1, P K/\ \ \ \ \ \ crease in school violence.
    [Show full text]
  • World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys, 1981–1984, 1990–1993, and 1995–1997
    ICPSR Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys, 1981–1984, 1990–1993, and 1995–1997 Ronald Inglehart et al. ICPSR 2790 WORLD VALUES SURVEYS AND EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEYS, 1981-1984, 1990-1993, AND 1995-1997 (ICPSR 2790) Principal Investigators Ronald Inglehart et al. University of Michigan Institute for Social Research First ICPSR Version February 2000 Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research P.O. Box 1248 Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 BIBLIOGRAPHIC CITATION Publications based on ICPSR data collections should acknowledge those sources by means of bibliographic citations. To ensure that such source attributions are captured for social science bibliographic utilities, citations must appear in footnotes or in the reference section of publications. The bibliographic citation for this data collection is: Inglehart, Ronald, et al. WORLD VALUES SURVEYS AND EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEYS, 1981-1984, 1990- 1993, and 1995-1997 [Computer file]. ICPSR version. Ann Arbor, MI: Institute for Social Research [producer], 2000. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2000. REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON USE OF ICPSR RESOURCES To provide funding agencies with essential information about use of archival resources and to facilitate the exchange of information about ICPSR participants' research activities, users of ICPSR data are requested to send to ICPSR bibliographic citations for each completed manuscript or thesis abstract. Please indicate in a cover letter which data were used. DATA DISCLAIMER The original collector of the data, ICPSR, and the relevant funding agency bear no responsibility for uses of this collection or for interpretations or inferences based upon such uses.
    [Show full text]
  • An Analysis of the Gallup Poll Data Regarding the Public's Assessment of the Public Schools from 1986-1995
    Loyola University Chicago Loyola eCommons Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 1998 An Analysis of the Gallup Poll Data Regarding the Public's Assessment of the Public Schools from 1986-1995 Biancalana Venette Meucci Loyola University Chicago Follow this and additional works at: https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss Part of the Education Commons Recommended Citation Meucci, Biancalana Venette, "An Analysis of the Gallup Poll Data Regarding the Public's Assessment of the Public Schools from 1986-1995" (1998). Dissertations. 3742. https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss/3742 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at Loyola eCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Loyola eCommons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. Copyright © 1998 Biancalana Venette Meucci LOYOLA UNIVERSITY CHICAGO AN ANALYSIS OF THE GALLUP POLL DATA REGARDING THE PUBLIC'S ASSESSMENT OF THE PUBLIC SCHOOLS FROM 1986-1995 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONAL LEADERSHIP AND POLICY STUDIES BY VENETTE MEUCCI BIANCALANA CHICAGO, ILLINOIS MAY, 1998 Copyright by Venette Meucci Biancalana, 1998 All rights reserved. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The researcher offers her deepest appreciation to her committee: Dr. Art Safer, committee chairperson, for his expertise, guidance and encouragement; Dr. Max Bailey for generously giving of his time and for his useful suggestions; and Dr. Phil Carlin for his advice and assistance. A special thank you is given to Dr.
    [Show full text]
  • 66Th Annual Conference
    66th Annual Conference Public Perception & Societal Conflict Conference Program May 12 – 15, 2011 Arizona Grand Resort Phoenix, AZ www.aapor.org 2 AAPOR 66th Annual Conference Table of Contents Welcome to Phoenix, Arizona ....................................................................................... 5 General Meeting Information ......................................................................................... 7 Plenary Session ............................................................................................................8 – 11 AAPOR Executive Council ...................................................................................17 – 20 Chapter Presidents ......................................................................................................... 20 Past Presidents ...................................................................................................................21 Honorary Life Members .................................................................................................22 Executive Office Staff .....................................................................................................23 Committees/Task Forces .................................................................................... 23 – 32 Award Winners ........................................................................................................33 – 35 Committee Meetings & Social Activities ....................................................... 36 – 37 Schedule of Events ..............................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Gallupuv Ústav
    Portrét Gallupův ústav: Co si myslí občan, divák a konzument I Michal Šimůnek I Gallupův ústav (The Gallup Organization) zaujímá přední místo na světě v oblasti výzkumu veřejného mínění, přičemž se specializuje zejména na mínění „veřejnosti občanů“, „veřejnosti konzumentů“ a „veřejnosti diváků“. Z perspekti- vy tématu tohoto čísla Revue pro média jsou nejvýznamnější Gallupovy výzkumy mediálních publik, avšak dotýkají se jej i výzkumy veřejného mínění občanů a chování spotřebitelů.1 Ve všech třech případech přitom platí, že informace, které Gallupův ústav poskytuje, mají pro politiky, psychology, sociální vědce, producenty a manažery podobný význam, jako má zpravodajství The Wall Street Journal pro finančníky. George Gallup a zrod Gallupova ústavu Prezidentské volby v roce 1936 Gallupův ústav je dnes nadnárodní společností, zabývající se Aby Gallup pro výsledky svých šetření získal dostatek předpla- širokou škálou aktivit v oblasti manažerského poradenství, vzdě- titelů, uzavřel s nimi smlouvu, která měla charakter značně ris- lávání, reklamy, výzkumu veřejného mínění, chování spotřebite- kantní sázky. George Gallup se upnul k prezidentským volbách lů a mediálních publik. Ústav je pojmenován po Dr. Georgu v roce 1936 a napadl stávající praxi některých velkých deníků H. Gallupovi (1901–1984), který inicioval politické průzkumy (nejvýznamnějším byl The Literary Digest, který správně před- veřejného mínění2 a který byl zakladatelem počátečních aktivit pověděl výsledky všech prezidentských voleb od roku 1916), ústavu. které prováděly rozsáhlé předvolební výzkumy veřejného míně- Po studiu žurnalistiky a psychologie na University of Iowa ní na několikamilionových, leč dle Gallupa přesto nereprezenta- a následné výuce těchto oborů na celé řadě amerických univerzit tivních vzorcích populace. Součástí Gallupovy „sázky“ s před- začal Gallup počátkem 30.
    [Show full text]
  • The Micro Foundations of Presidential Approval
    The Micro Foundations of Presidential Approval Peter K. Enns Assistant Professor Cornell University [email protected] October 13, 2007 Abstract The \miracle of aggregation" has become the key to understanding how an unin- terested and uninformed electorate can produce systematic and responsive presidential approval. This paper, however, presents a set of theoretical considerations, which pre- dict that not only do the least informed contribute to aggregate measures of presidential approval, but that the most and least informed update their attitudes in tandem. To test this hypothesis of uniform opinion change, I analyze subgroup and individual level presidential approval with quarterly, monthly, and daily data. The results suggest a reconsideration of how we think about public opinion in the United States. Although subtle di®erences exist across information groups, all segments of the public translate economic and political information into their presidential evaluations. Peter K. Enns, Department of Government, Cornell University, [email protected] previous version of this paper was presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Amer- ican Political Science Association, Chicago, IL. I would like to thank Chris Anderson and Greg McAvoy for helpful comments and Matthew Martell and Patrick Healy for research assistance. This research received ¯nancial support from the National Science Foundation (Grant 0617156) and the University of North Carolina's American Politics Research Group. \Do you approve or disapprove of the way [the incumbent] is handling his job as president?" is the longest running and most frequent poll question asked to the American public. And answers to this question exert a tremendous influence on U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Political Pundits, Conventional Wisdom, and Presidential Reputation, 1945-1963
    POLITICAL PUNDITS, CONVENTIONAL WISDOM, AND PRESIDENTIAL REPUTATION, 1945-1963 A dissertation presented to the faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy Stephen K. Tootle August 2004 This dissertation entitled POLITICAL PUNDITS, CONVENTIONAL WISDOM, AND PRESIDENTIAL REPUTATION, 1945-1963 BY STEPHEN K. TOOTLE has been approved for the Department of History and the College of Arts and Sciences by Alonzo Hamby Distinguished Professor of History Leslie A. Flemming Dean, College of Arts and Sciences TOOTLE, STEPHEN K. Ph.D. August 2004. History Political Pundits, Conventional Wisdom, and Presidential Reputation, 1945-1963 (350pp.) Director of Dissertation: Alonzo Hamby An elite cadre of political journalists shaped presidential reputation in the years between the end of the Second World War and Kennedy’s assassination. These pundits influenced politics in a way that is scarcely imaginable today. Walter Lippmann was easily the most prominent journalist of the 20th century. From the negotiations at Versailles to the Vietnam War, the most powerful people in the world read his columns and valued his insight. Arthur Krock and his colleague James Reston at the New York Times had access to, and the trust of, presidents and government officials of the highest rank. Drew Pearson occupied the opposite end of the spectrum of respectability, but he was perhaps the most popular of all the political pundits. In addition to his newspaper columns, Pearson also had a radio show with millions of faithful listeners. Marquis Childs’ column for the United Features Syndicate ran in all the largest markets in the United States and occupied a prominent place on the editorial page of the Washington Post.
    [Show full text]
  • Southern Politics After the Election of President Clinton: Continued Transformation Toward the Republican Party?*
    Southern Politics after the Election of President Clinton: Continued Transformation Toward the Republican Party?* Charles D. Hadley, University of New Orleans To whom does the South belong politically, now that an all-southern ticket has reclaimed the White House for the Democratic party? Review of 1992 voting returns for national, statewide, and legislative races in the South, contrasted with those from earlier presidential years, lead to only one conclusion: the South continues to move toward the Republican party. The Clinton-Gore ticket ran behind its percentage of the national vote in most southern states, as well as behind all Democratic candidates in statewide races, and would have won without any southern electoral votes; whereas Bush- Quayle ran ahead of their percentage of the national vote in every southern state except Clinton’s Arkansas, while Republicans gained seats in southern legislatures and congressional delegations. It is suggested that southern electoral college votes won by Democratic presidential candidates in 1976 and 1992 hinged upon Democratic vote-getters in races for statewide offices in each state carried except the presidential candidates’ home states. Where is the South after the election of President Bill Clinton? Pre- sumably the election of Clinton, a Democratic Leadership Council social and economic moderate, will draw the Democratic party back to the political center of American politics through his leadership on the issues and public policies that he propelled to the fore of the national political agenda. Will this, in turn, enhance the electoral prospects of similarly positioned Democratic candidates in his native South? A partial answer to this question lies in the changed context of contemporary southern politics.
    [Show full text]
  • Alumni Day 1983
    Editors: David C. Bogle Linda Maxwell Stefanelli ’62 PRINCETON DAY SCHOOL JOURNAL Vol. 15 No. 1 1983 Contents 1 Letter from the Headmaster, James W Gramentine 2 Hosting an AFS Student, by Pat and Quinn McCord The joys and heartaches of sharing your home Page 4 3 AFS in Your Country or Another, by Lindsay McCord '82 Living and academic experiences abroad 4 Et In Arcadia Ego, by Marcus Herbert '83 The American experience by an E-S U student 6 My Year in America, by Alex Avila ’83 PDS as seen through the eyes of a Paraguayan student 7 PDS Approves Five New Trustees Page 12 8 A Family Tradition A photographic record of alumni families 11 Alumni Association Reorganizes 12 Alum ni Day 1983 14 Lower and Middle School Final Assemblies 15 Com m encem ent 1983 16 An Education for Freedom, by A. Bartlett Giamatti, President of Yale University. A renowned educator and author addresses the senior class 19 College Choices, Class of 1983 2 0 Alumni Children 21 Princeton Welcomes Gramentines All constituents have various opportunities to meet the new Headmaster and his wife 21 Former Faculty Page 16 2 2 Sports 2 4 Princeton Day School Honors Three Retirees, by Barbara Johnson. Sally Paterson, Mag Gilbert and Mike Merle-Smith 2 6 Development Report 2 7 PDS Annual Fund 1982-1983 3 3 Alumni News 5 2 A Tribute to Moyne Smith, by Connie Sayan Ban ’68 Photo Credits: Eileen Hihmuth p 1.6, 7,8.10,11,14,15, 16. 21, 24, 25. Alana Firesterp 12,13.
    [Show full text]