EDITORIAL

BUSINESS AND POLITICS OF ARMING INDIA MARCH 2021

Soaring Capabilities

India’s AeroIndia 2021 showcased local aviation sector’s growth through HAL’s projects

MARCH 2021 1 BUSINESS AND POLITICS OF ARMING INDIA

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Dear Reader,

s we were wrapping up this March 2021 edition for you, there were some incredibly positive Adevelopments on the India-Pakistan border front. The two nations’ armies agreed on main- taining and following the Nov. 2003 ceasefire agreement in toto and that has raised the spirits of the people of the two nations, particularly those living on the borders who faced the brunt of the sniping that the two forces have been at for seven decades now. However, this is a peace that has come at a high cost. Coupled with the withdrawal of the troops at some key locations on the between India and China such as the Pangong Tso and Galwan Valley, there are good tidings visible for overall peace in South Asia. These developments must be welcomed by one and all seeking prosperity to the people of the region. These positives are the way forward, provided Pakistan and China are sincere in implementing these peace agreements in letter and spirit. India needs to trust the two neighbours on the West and the North regarding their claims. But it need not be blind faith. India should verify each step down that path and not take the peace claims at face value. This caution has to stem from the experiences of the past and the history of military affairs among the three nuclear-armed nations. As also, for a better future. While this is so on the geopolitics front in India’s neighbourhood, Defence.Capital is happy to share with you that it has tied up with Defence Research and Studies (DRaS), a Kochi-based think-tank of military and strategic affairs experts, on content sharing, and is happy to bring some of the chosen articles and views from DRaS in this edition for your reading pleasure. Since the AeroIndia 2021 show has just got over last month, this edition brings to you through the visual medium on what transpired at the air show. We have good choice of photographs that we have shared to showcase the biennial event in case any of you had missed it. There were several Memoranda of Understanding that were signed at the AeroIndia 2021. Defence.Capital in the past have compiled such MoUs for your benefit. This year too, we have done so. But we shall share the list that we compiled in our later editions. This is something you would look forward to, am sure. After over a year of publication, Defence.Capital is currently carrying out a review of what it has done and if this direction needs to continue or change for the better. That process, we expect to complete in a month or two. We shall keep you updated regarding the changes or continua- tion in our editorial strategy soon, by the middle of this year. Till that time and in the future, we urge you to support Defence.Capital in its endeavours, which is to help you do your business much more profitably. We also request your feedback on the content of this publication and suggestions on how we can improve it to serve you better. Am keenly looking forward to all your letters and emails in this regard. Some of the best ones will be carried in the subsequent editions. We are also looking for testimonials from our es- teemed readers, who are the decision-makers from the Ministry of Defence and the armed forc- es, industry leaders and researchers from think-tanks. Happy reading and thank you for all the support and feedback.

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MARCH 2021 3 CONTENTS

INTERVIEW BEML looking at bagging $114 Impact of Drones in million worth of battlefield changes conventional warfare orders Drones are the latest game-changers or force multi- The state-run company has an orderbook posi- pliers in modern warfare. The last four years saw sev- tion of over $1.63 billion till 2023-24. BEML’s eral countries using drones in their battles; Nigeria Chairman and Managing Director (Additional used drones against Boko Haram, Turkey used them Charge) M. V. Rajasekhar said in this questions in Syrian raids, the UK in Iraq and Syria, and the US and answers during AeroIndia 2021. P9 in Libya. P15 Multirole Helicopters: Romeos in operations Yet again, the Arabian Sea is poised to shrink to a pond, as the MH60R is the best multirole helicopters in the world. Since they come from a family of helicopters with which the Indian Navy has a familiarity of over 50 years, in their operation and maintenance, Indian Navy will hit the deck running too. P19 Deployment of autonomous weapon systems a future challenge Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) are pos- ing another kind of threat to humanity. The level of au- tonomy defines how dangerous the weapon could be for nations. P21 India gets serious about Ordnance Factory corporatisation India is getting serious about corporatising the state- run Ordnance Factories to bring in efficiency and -ac countability in its functioning, apart from financial in- dependence and competitiveness in its operations. P13

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Visual Impact of AeroIndia 2021

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6 MARCH 2021 MARCH 2021 7 EVENT

8 MARCH 2021 INTERVIEW

BEML looking at bagging $114 million worth of orders

The state-run company has an orderbook position of over $1.63 billion till 2023-24. BEML’s Chairman and Managing Director (Additional Charge) M. V. Rajasekhar said in this questions and answers during AeroIndia 2021.

Over the last five and a half decades, BEML has During the recent times, several targets have been been supplying quality products and services to achieved by the company. Some of them are: sectors such as Mining & Construction, Rail & • Designed, developed, and supplied India’s biggest: Metro, Defence & Aerospace. How successful has o Excavator to Coal India. the company been in achieving its missions and o Dump Trucks to Coal India goals? What are the major accomplishments in the o Bulldozer to Nalco recent times? • Indigenously designed, developed, and supplied Metro Ans. We could achieve our short-term goals. However, cars to Metro. some of the long-term plans are yet to be achieved and we • Catenary Maintenance Vehicle (CMV) was successfully are on the trajectory for achieving the same. designed & developed, and supplied to Delhi Metro Rail

MARCH 2021 9 INTERVIEW

Corporation. Ans. Indigenously designed and developed state-of- • Developed and supplied the country’s first unmanned the-art Driverless Metro trains are being manufactured at train operated (driverless) metro rolling stock for supply BEML’s Bangalore Complex. The cars will operate on 25 KV to MRS1 project of metro line 2A and line AC traction power and equipped with CCTV surveillance • 1500 HP Engine for Defence Application. and with the provision to carry passenger bicycles in the • BEML received prestigious orders from VSSC, ISRO coaches. for manufacture of 8 types of Light alloy structures for The cars are made up of stainless-steel body with a GSLV. This is first of its kind for BEML to venture into capacity of carrying 2,280 passengers in six cars Metro space domain to manufacture critical launch vehicle trainsets. BEML bagged a total order of 576 cars for structures thereby supporting ISRO for their upcoming MMRDA’s MRS1 project, the largest order ever, amidst stiff launch mission including “Mission Gaganyan”. Required competition in the presence of international players and the facilities including an assembly hangar have been set up supply is scheduled progressively up to January 2024. On at Bangalore Complex. Jan. 29, Chief Minister of Maharashtra unveiled the first • BEML received orders for supply of more than 800 Nos. train on Metro Lines for 7 & 2A designed and supplied by BEML HMV vehicles and 1,512 Nos. Mine Ploughs for BEML Limited. Tank T-90 • Overhauling of two nos. of Armoured Recovery Vehicle What are the capabilities of the newly launched (ARV) has been taken up at KGF Division which is yet Aerospace Assembly Hangar, situated within again first of its kind in BEML. Required facilities have BEML’s Bangalore Complex, and the new Industrial already been established in the division. Design Centre? • So far, more than 8,200 High Mobility Vehicles, 350 Ans. New Aerospace Assembly hangar has been set up Armoured Recovery Vehicles, 3,200 Trailers/Wagons, at Bangalore Complex to take up the manufacture of the six sets (330 nos.) of Pontoon Bridge Systems, seven sets Light Alloy Structures for GSLV Mk III structures. Required of Sarvatra Bridge systems, 18,000 Rail Coaches and 700 infrastructures have been established to meet the stringent EMUs, 1,650 Metro cars, 32,000 Mining & construction quality requirements of ISRO. equipment and 27,000 engines. • Industrial Design Centre o Focus on implementing Industrial Design & Human Defence Minister Rajnath Singh unveiled Factors in all Products. ‘Driverless Metro Car’ manufactured by BEML o Global benchmarking for Industrial Design for Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development and Ergonomics and integration with R&D and Authority (MMRDA) recently. Could you talk more manufacturing. about the project? How strong are the business o Hub for exchange of creative ideas and concepts to operations of BEML in rail and metro sectors? provide the ‘Design-edge’ for better Market & User

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acceptance. • Indigenously designed and developed products: o 150 Ton Dump Truck (BH150E), How much healthy is BEML’s order book? o 180 Ton Electrical Excavator (BE1800E), Ans. At present we are having and orderbook position of o 117 HP Heli Portable Dozer (BD50HST) and over Rs 12,200 crore ($1.63 billion) which will be executed o Medium Bullet Proof Vehicle ‘GAUR’ (MBPV) by 2023-24. BEML over the last few years BEML’s order • MoUs signed: book is particularly good. With respect to defence vertical, o IIT – in the field of UAV, and it has seen a rising trend in performance over the last five o NASSCOM – CoE for AI & IoT related areas. years. BEML has around Rs 4,660 crore ($615 million) order book as on date and around Rs 850 crore ($114 million) To further enhance indigenisation, BEML invited orders is in pipeline. With this order book position, BEML ‘Expression of Interest’ for manufacturing and technology is poised to grow reasonably well in Defence business in the partnerships with reputed global OEMs looking to establish forthcoming years. and/or expand their supply chains/manufacturing base in India for the manufacture of various goods and/or service How does the company support for ‘Atmanirbhar business in the areas of Defence and Aerospace, Rail and Bharat’ initiative? Metro, Mining and Construction, Engines and aggregates, Ans. Atmanirbharta is in our DNA. Over the years, with the overarching objective of ‘’. indigenisation has been a big plank of our strategy. Under Positive Responses have been received and is under the government’s guidance, we have issued an expression compilation. of interest on every product for seeking manufacturing and technology partnerships from reputed Original Equipment What are the activities by BEML to promote the Manufacturers (OEMs) looking to establish and/or expand Defence indigenization? their supply chains/manufacturing base in India for the Ans. We have already achieved indigenisation levels manufacture of various goods and/or service business that of 84 per cent in High Mobility Vehicles and entered into is being imported, as we want to go towards zero import on ToT with Tatra Trucks a.s. for indigenous manufacture of whatever item is being imported. BEML has also signed a cabins for HMVs. Further, we have also planned for local Transfer of Technology with Tatra Trucks for indigenisation manufacture of defence spares through JVs. of cabins for military trucks. • Development of 1500HP Engine for Defence Application. • Under Atmanirbhar initiative, BEML is associated with o BEML has taken up a project for Design, Development IIT, Kanpur to establish a potential Industry – Research and Supply of 1500HP engine to CVRDE with end user Institute relationship for joint development of 25 kg being . class Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for surveillance o The engine will be supplied to use on FMBT and is application. designed to work in extreme environmental conditions. • Furthermore, BEML is entering into an Memorandum of Understanding with National Aerospace Laboratories The products of BEML are exported to more than (NAL) to associate in the areas of Advanced Composites 67 countries. Could you shed some light onto the and Autoclaves, Mini UAV, Design and Analysis of export operations? Which are the main customers Aircraft Structures and Systems. Efforts are also being and what are the main export products? made with global OEMs to associate for indigenous Ans. BEML is exploring opportunities for exporting design and development of Unmanned Aerial Systems defence products to friendly neighboring countries like through technology transfer. Bangladesh and Thailand. Apart from this, BEML has As stated above, apart from indigenously design and exported more than 1,100 equipment to various countries development of new product, during ‘Atmanirbharta across the globe. Our main customers are Syria, Tunisia, Saptah’ (Self-reliance Week) from Aug. 7 to Aug. 14 of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Nepal, and the main export 2020, the following were launched by the defence minister: products are HMV 8x8, HMV 6x6, Sarvatra Bridge System, • Industrial Design Centre Recovery Vehicles, Dozers, and Excavators. o Focus on implementing Industrial Design and Human We have mainly exported Mining and Construction Factors in all products. products globally. For improving the geo-strategic reach o Global benchmarking for Industrial Design and increasing exports, we are working on various business and Ergonomics and integration with R&D and opportunities in Defence, Mining and Construction and manufacturing Rail and Metro segments in SAARC and Africa. o Hub for exchange of creative ideas and concepts to We are in continuous discussion with Indian Embassies provide the ‘Design-edge’ for better Market and User and Defence Attaches with regard to business promotion/ acceptance. engaging local representative and have already appointed

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representatives in Bangladesh, Tunisia, Cameroon, Thailand • Interaction with top Government Officials. and in the process of appointing more representatives across • Interaction with top Global OEMs. the globe. Also, we are conducting various Webinars and • Interaction with Indian business entities. e-meetings through Indian Missions abroad to promote BEML products. Webinars have been conducted through Could you share with us your vision for the Indian Missions in countries such as Kenya, Senegal, company? What are the expansion plans for BEML’s Zambia, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Oman. business operations? Kenya region has been allocated to us by Ministry of Ans. Vision of the Company is: “Become a market leader, Defence and we have already registered BEML branch as a diversified Company, supplying quality products and office at Kenya. services to sectors such as Mining & Construction, Rail & Metro, Defence & Aerospace and to emerge as a prominent What are the highlights of BEML’s participation international player.” at the Aero India 2021? How do you look at the We are looking for growth in Aerospace Sector and expo as an opportunity to bridge new business have recently, established manufacturing facilities at out relationships? Bangalore Complex. We have planned to manufacture Ans. BEML showcased some of its prime products and supply Aerospace components and aggregates for during AeroIndia 2021, the biennial mega Aero exhibition, national progammes and for other Defence Public Sector held in Bengaluru in Feb. 2021. The products, with theme Undertakings. of ‘Atmanirbharata’, included niche products such as Recently, we have engaged management consultant firm Transporter Landing System (TLS) and Variants of McKinsey & Company Inc, Gurugram for devising business- Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). In the indoor Stall, BEML cum-growth plan, after obtaining Board and MoD approval. also displayed various equipment and critical components in BEML plans to associate with global leaders for the aero-space sector. manufacturing airborne structures, aircraft systems that Our main objectives at Aero India 2021 were to promote would enable BEML reaching the level of a lead Integrator BEML’s capability and showcase our Defence & Aerospace in the area of systems. In addition to this, BEML products. is also signing MoU’s and Non-Disclosure Agreements • To explore opportunities under offsets, Joint Venture in with strategic OEMs for introducing new products such as the areas of mutual interest. autonomous ground vehicles, twin tracked carriers, light • Joint Manufacture of Airborne structure, Development of armoured dozers, and aggregates for T-90 tank under ‘Make Aircraft systems for global supply chain requirements. in India’ initiative.

12 MARCH 2021 INDUSTRY India gets serious about Ordnance Factory corporatisation

In a display of its intent to corporatise the Ordnance Security (CCS), the country’s top decision-making body on Factory Board (OFB), India’s Minister of Defence Rajnath security-related issues chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Singh held a high-level meeting in the first week of March Modi, had approved the proposal to give the OFB a corporate to explore all possible actions to make the state-run arms structure and converting them into “one or more than one manufacturing factories more robust as per the prevailing 100 per cent government-owned corporate entities”. and futuristic defence requirements of the country. The meeting comes amid the government’s decision to The Situation convert the Ordnance Factory Board into a 100 per cent Addressing a webinar in the last week of February on the government-owned corporate entity or entities. The OFB is effective implementation of the Union Budget’s provisions a defence ministry owned entity and supplies critical arms in the defence sector, Modi had said, “before independence, and to the armed forces and the paramilitary we used to have hundreds of ordnance factories. In both the and armed police forces of India. world wars, weapons at large scale was exported from India. But for various reasons, this system was not strengthened In its meeting held in July 2020, the Cabinet Committee on as much as it should have been after independence.”

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said modernisation in Ordnance Factories is a continuous process. “To keep pace with the contemporary manufacturing technologies, OFB prepares a modernisation plan for technological up-gradation as well as capacity enhancements,” it said.

The Background The Ordnance Factory Board with its 41 factories, 13 development centres and nine Institutes Of Learning is expected to be a national strategic asset with the potential of not only meeting national military hardware requirement and contribute to overall comprehensive national power. The sub-optimal efficiency of this potential strategic asset is one of the major contributing factors to the hollowness threatening the ammunition and armament holdings of the Modi said, “the condition is such that even for small Indian Army. arms, we have to look at other nations. India is amongst the It is also a matter of concern that certain countries biggest defence importers and this is not a matter of pride.” have refused to accept Ordnance Factory-manufactured In a reply to Parliament in 2020, Minister of State for ammunition and equipment offered against defence Lines of Defence Shripad Naik had said, “the corporatisation of OFB Credit due to concerns regarding quality of output, procedures will improve its autonomy, accountability and efficiency in in the factories and the inefficient post-sale service. ordnance supplies.” The move to corporatise ordnance factories spread across The Argument the country met with resistance from the labour unions Lack of accountability and poor quality of production in 2019. Naik added that the government took note of results in frequent accidents. This results in injuries and the concerns of workers of the OFB against the proposed death of soldiers. On an average, one accident related to corporatisation. Ordnance Factory-manufactured product takes place every “An Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) has been week. Between 2014 and 2019, there were a total of 403 constituted under the Chairmanship of Minister of Defence accidents in which 27 soldiers lost their lives and another to oversee and guide the entire process of corporatisation of 146 soldiers were injured, according to data gathered by the OFB, including transition support and redeployment plan Indian Army. of employees while safeguarding their wages and retirement Moreover, loss to government exchequer of Rs 658.58 benefits,” he had then said. crore was reported between April 2014 and April 2019 due In a reply to a parliamentary panel in February, the to disposal of products within their shelf-life. Another Rs defence ministry said the existing order book is “skewed” 303.23 crore worth of mines too were disposed of within and ordnance factories manufacturing large calibre shelf-life post the Pulgaon fire accident of May 2016. The ammunition, Pinaka , small arms and small arms cumulative losses of Rs 960 crore could have been used buy ammunition are “sub-optimally loaded”. 100 155mm medium guns, it is argued. The ministry further said that in the last five years, the ordnance factories have completed 100 T-90 Tanks, Way Ahead creation of facilities for production of 1,000 Pinaka rockets, The corporatisation of the OFB was first suggested by the augmentation of capacity for manufacturing of Mine Nair Committee in 2000, the Kelkar Committee in 2005 Protected Vehicle (MPV), spares for T-72 and T-90 tanks, and the Raman Puri committee in 2015. The corporatisation and T-72 variants. of OFBs formed part of the Modi 2.0 government’s 167 Naik had said in Parliament that OFB products are priced transformative ideas to be implemented in 100 days by Oct. on a cost-based methodology without charging any profit 2019. over the cost of production for supply to the armed forces. The Modi government had floated the proposal in July/ Since OFB is nominated as a production agency for supply August of 2019 but the trade unions called for an indefinite of core items to the armed forces, no comparison with strike against the decision on Aug. 20, 2019. The government international prices can be made. then set up a committee to address the concerns of the To a question on what steps have been taken to modernise employees in Sep. 2019 and subsequently, in Nov. 2019 the ordnance factories across the country through notified the proposal to convert Ordnance Factories into introduction of state-of-the-art technologies, the ministry 100 per cent government-owned public sector units.

14 MARCH 2021 UNMANNED WARFARE Impact of Drones in battlefield has changed the conventional warfare

By Commodore B. R. Prakash were tremendously effective against the entrenched troops, armour and artillery. Azerbaijan used its drone fleet to Drones are the latest game-changers or force multipliers in destroy Armenia’s weapons systems in Nagorno-Karabakh, modern warfare. Drone warfare started to gain prominence enabling a swift advance and victory. when the United States cracked down hard upon insurgents The success of drones against armour and artillery has and terrorists soon after the 9/11 bombings using drones to been analysed threadbare and there is no doubt of its strike at targets. success as a cost-effective weapon of choice in the battle Since then, they have been extensively deployed for against tanks and AD systems. surveillance and strikes in the battle against terrorism. The However, there is another aspect of drone warfare last four years saw several countries using drones in their particularly against infantry troops, which has not received battles; Nigeria used drones against Boko Haram, Turkey the same attention. This is the psychological impact of these used them in Syrian raids, the UK in Iraq and Syria, and the weapons on the warfighting morale of troops in the open, in US in Libya. trenches or entrenched in bunkers. The latest conflict between Azerbaijan-Armenia again Unlike artillery barrages, which are generally limited witnessed their deployment in large numbers where they by inherent inaccuracies, time, and volume; drones can

MARCH 2021 15 UNMANNED WARFARE

remain in the area for very long durations and precisely one can control. strike targets, even well-entrenched targets. The application of tactical psychology on the battlefield is The psychological impact of weapons on the human mind not about making our own men fight more but making the has always been a subject of research and in recent times, other side fight less and give up. It is all about employing it has gained further importance under the umbrella of combat instruments like suppressive fire, aerial bombings, Tactical psychology. flanking attacks and fast attacks and these days’ armed Tactical psychology is the art and science of exploiting drones to break the will of the enemy to fight. It is sometimes human weakness – encouraging the enemy to run, hide about simply driving a powerful message to the enemy that or surrender. When applied correctly it increases the they have the chance to surrender. operational tempo, saves lives on both sides, and saves Like many aspects of war, tactical psychology combines ammunition. It can stop a war descending into a messy art and science. The art is the practical application: all those quagmire. dirty and not-so-dirty tactics that accomplish the task. The Leo Murray in his book, ‘War Games: The psychology of science blends psychology, history, and field experiments to Combat’ has dealt with this subject giving a new perspective quantitatively analyse how each tactic works. This analysis to understanding the human element in combat. He brings can help armies and soldiers mix attrition and manoeuvre out that unlike battle morale, which he describes as a vague more effectively. label that includes everything from national culture to Brigadier General SLA Marshall, a military journalist the quality of boots, tactical psychology focusses on what and historian, who understood the realities of combat, soldiers do once they are in contact with the enemy. advocated the concept of fire ratio theory in his book ‘Men He emphasises that tactical psychology focuses on what a Against Fire: The Problem of Battle Command’; based on front-line soldier can do to win a battle rather than looking group interviews and concluded that fewer than 25 per cent at the things governments and generals might be able to of men in combat actually fired their weapons. control or worrying about the million tiny problems that no He said that the nub of battle, and therefore the outcome

16 MARCH 2021 UNMANNED WARFARE of the war, was a simple question that a soldier asked Drones do not enter into a battlefield like a strike aircraft himself when he was under fire: ‘Will the possible effect on or Special Forces team, quickly taking out the target and the enemy of my active participation be worth the possible then leaving. Drones are omnipresent. They hover over in adverse effect on me?’ the area, watching, transmitting data, coordinating strikes This ‘is it worth it?’ calculation is an almost unconscious, or in some cases carrying of strikes themselves while quick, and dirty comparison of the costs and rewards of continuing surveillance. It is like a ‘Big Brother’ in the sky. fighting. This begs the question as to ‘who fights?’ and the The soldier recognises that he is under constant answer is pretty much ‘everybody’. surveillance and that all his movements are tracked for If the conditions are right then almost any man will fight vulnerabilities. He subsists under the constant fear of being but change those conditions and almost everybody will attacked at any time but does not know when unlike an stop fighting. It is indeed this aspect of human psychology artillery barrage. that modern weapons like armed drones tend to exploit by Since the drones operate at extended heights above changing conditions to ensure that the will to fight is swiftly SAM engagement ranges or is insignificantly small to be extinguished. tracked and engaged by SAM systems, neutralising it an In a battle, it has been observed that men are much more immense challenge. Drones in the air induce a sense of both likely to stop fighting when bullets pass near them, when uncontrollability and unpredictability of action. their mates stop fighting, when their mates are killed or Armed drones like Israeli Harpy, Harop, or Rotem can injured and when they get very close to the enemy. be used with pinpoint accuracy. In the future, drones can The attacking soldiers continue marching into the enemy be used with swarm tactics like a hive of bees to undertake fire until they take 10 or 20 per cent casualties. Onlyat microscopic surgical strikes at precise locations killing or this point, will they go to the ground maiming a few whiles spreading panic and try to find a better way to attack. or causing others to freeze into inaction This can be related to the phenomenon Tactical psychology is or flee from the scene. of “fight” -or- “flight” response (also the art and science of What is the impact due to this called hyperarousal or the acute exploiting human weakness uninterrupted drone presence? The stress response), first described by – encouraging the enemy constant noise of a drone circling Walter Bradford Cannon, which is a overhead, combined with its potential physiological reaction that occurs in to run, hide or surrender. lethality, has a profound psychological response to a perceived harmful event, When applied correctly it effect on the soldiers on the battlefield. attack, or threat to survival. increases the operational While there has been a wide range of His theory states that animals react to studies investigating this phenomenon threats with a general discharge of the tempo, saves lives on particularly in its impact on civilians, sympathetic nervous system, preparing both sides, and saves no similar studies have been done on the animal for fighting or fleeing. In ammunition. its impact on soldiers. its application to the armed combat, This may be due to the primary Leo Murray in his book “War Games: employment of drones to combat The psychology of Combat” expanded terrorists, as borne out by their on this theory to include “Freezing” and “Fussing” and employment by Nigeria against Boko Haram, Turkey in proposed a ‘Four Fs’ theory of freeze– fussing- flee–fight as Syrian raids, and the US in Libya. The recent clash in a model for armed combat. Nagorno-Karabakh is perhaps the first deployment in an Freezing is a kind of paralysis partly due to the physiological actual war. powering-down following, and sometimes during, a period In the absence of such studies on soldiers, the findings of high stress, while fussing is a tendency for people under of studies on civilians can form a reasonable basis for pressure to focus on what is manageable rather than what assessing the possible psychological impact on soldiers. is important. This is a useful theory because, rather than “Living Under Drones”, is one study conducted by lawyers equivocating about morale or how men feel, it focuses on and researchers at Stanford University and New York what they do and what makes them do it. University in the northern tribal region of Waziristan With this as a background, the analysis of how employment (FATA), which comprehensively examines the impact of drones could be exploited to prey and mess the human drones on the civilian population. mind is more easily understood. The defining characteristic The findings of this study are truly disturbing. A vast of the drone that makes it qualitatively different from the majority of people reported being perpetually scared less sophisticated artillery barrage or machine-guns fire is of drone strikes, day and night. Just the constant noise its ability of pervasiveness in the battlefield area for long above makes people experience bouts of emotional trauma durations. and symptoms of anxiety. And these symptoms are more

MARCH 2021 17 UNMANNED WARFARE

a different situation. The studies of war, torture, and earthquake survivors show that unpredictable and uncontrollable stressors have a similar impact on humans, most commonly leading to Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and depression. Although other stressful war events, such as aerial bombardment, artillery barrage, may have some of these features, few have all of them in the same pronounced fashion as drone warfare. Anticipatory fear is another reaction that is clearly associated with the unpredictability and uncontrollability of drone strikes. Such anticipatory fear is likely to be very intense and anticipation of a life-threatening event is among the most fear-evoking stressors in a war setting. There is no doubt that prolonged exposure to unpredictable and uncontrollable life-threatening events leads to intense fears in most people. Furthermore, such events also lead to strongly conditioned fears that are beyond cognitive control and resistant to extinction8, as is the normal case in operant conditioning when the strength of a behaviour is modified by reinforcement or punishment. Prolonged exposure to this inescapable environment invariably leads to an intense fear-induced state of total helplessness and poor or slow responses to situations. This widespread than previously thought – there are reports of implies that the operation of drones in an area is likely to men, women, and children too terrified to sleep at night. have a cumulative impact that is likely to last well beyond Medical practitioners have asserted that these anxiety- their cessation of the mission. related disorders amongst the people of Waziristan often It may be argued that well-drilled soldiers are trained to manifest themselves in the form of physical illness, ranging fight in hostile environments and extremely demanding from headaches to heart attacks, even suicides. Drone- conditions and are to an extent able overcome their fears, induced anxieties are having a profound impact on the way and therefore the studies on the psychological impact these people live their lives. of drones on civilians cannot be directly extrapolated to For example, people avoid daily activities such as grocery soldiers. shopping, farming, and driving for fear of drone strikes. However, there are studies, which indicate that at the This behaviour is symptomatic of “anticipatory anxiety” – personal level, even well-drilled soldiers are far less a psychological phenomenon that causes people to worry effective at basic tasks when they are in contact with the constantly about their immediate future, which is very enemy. A series of American and Canadian studies found common in conflict zones. it takes a man nearly 50 per cent longer to repair a radio Scientifically and medically speaking, this phenomenon when he thinks that artillery is accidentally dropping short can be explained as an outcome of unpredictability around him. However, there is no doubt that prolonged and uncontrollability. The psychological impact of the exposure to stressors as drones in modern warfare does unpredictability of traumatic events is further aggravated take a toll on the soldier, like other similar stressors during by their uncontrollability. any war. Since the 1960s substantial experimental work has been In conclusion, there is a requirement to undertake further done on this, such as, the inescapable shock experiments studies on the psychological impact of drone warfare on the with animals have shown that unpredictability and soldier to completely understand its impact on the soldier uncontrollability of stressor events lead to anxiety and on the battlefield. But there is no doubt that the use of fear. Exposure to such stressors causes certain associative, armed drones to visibly alter and modify fighting conditions motivational, and emotional deficits in animals that closely on the battlefield to ensure that the human will to fight is resemble the effects of traumatic stress in humans. swiftly extinguished will be exploited. These deficits include learned helplessness –a (The writer is a retired Indian Navy officer and a specialist phenomenon characterized by the failure of animals initially in missile and gunnery warfare. Published in arrangement exposed to uncontrollable shocks to subsequently learn to with Defence Research and Studies. The article is available escape or avoid shocks that were potentially controllable in on dras.in)

18 MARCH 2021 TOTAL RECALL

Multirole Helicopters: Romeos to play major role in Indian Navy operations

By Commodore G. Prakash Kingdom’s Westland Helicopters Limited (WHL), the basic aircraft was under the licence of Sikorsky, USA. So, till we Exactly 20 years ago, I solemnly gifted a memento to could get a clearer picture, the Indian Navy was prudently my ship on behalf of the officers of my department. The consolidating its assets as per a revised utilisation plan. My memento was a solid 3x1.5 feet carved wooden frame, that crew and I got posted out immediately thereafter. surrounded two beautifully painted war elephants in gold. When the 42Bs arrived in India between 1988 and 1990, We had carefully selected the two elephants from a stack they were the second lot of Sea Kings to ever come to India. of elephant paintings the best Rajasthani art dealer on The first lot of 12 had come in 1970, just before the India- Colaba Causeway had. Their eyes had to be ferocious, and Pakistan war. their tusks had to be razor-sharp. Equipped with an excellent Sonar and a Radar, they were That is because they represented the best multirole the most modern ASW helicopters in the world when they helicopters (MRH) the world had seen then, the Sea King arrived. But they came a bit too late and during the 1971 Mark 42 Bs, known lovingly as just 42Bs, or Bravos. They war, could only undertake some shore-based operations were called Flying Frigates. Rightly so, as they could do from Mumbai. almost anything the Frigate that carried them could do. But soon after that, the Indian Navy managed to operate With two Bravos each on a ship, the Godavari Class were these large helicopters from Frigates and even acquired matchless fighting entities. three more helicopters, with slight design changes to better The occasion was the formal disbanding of the last suit operations from small decks. This was a pathbreaking Bravo Flight on the Godavari class Frigates. The reason innovation. was straightforward. In response to India’s bold step at In the decade after the 1971 war, the Indian Navy carefully Pokharan in 1998, the US had imposed sanctions, and this charted out options for all-round upgradation of military was likely to affect the operational availability of the 42Bs. equipment, and some, much-required indigenisation. In Though the Bravos had come to us from United the field of multirole helicopters, it was to be a two-pronged

MARCH 2021 19 TOTAL RECALL

Yet again, the Arabian Sea is poised to shrink to a pond, as the MH60R is the best multirole helicopters in the world.

approach. our operational capabilities through sanctions, is now poised For indigenisation, HAL was to first make a smaller to send us the third wave of the kings of the sea, the Multi- multirole helicopter develop skills and confidence. A larger Role Helicopters. Last year, India signed a $3-billion deal one could follow later. Meanwhile, to meet operational with the United States for 24 MH60R helicopters from the needs, some multirole helicopters were to be imported. The Sikorsky family. They are expected to be delivered this year. choice fell again on Sea Kings, as they were still the best Yet again, the Arabian Sea is poised to shrink to a pond, available. as the MH60R is the best multirole helicopters in the world. But this time around, there was a difference. The aircraft Since they come from a family of helicopters with which was to be equipped with state-of-the-art weapons, sensors, the Indian Navy has a familiarity of over 50 years, in their communication systems, navigation systems and most operation and maintenance, we will hit the deck running importantly, a Tactical Mission System (TMS) to integrate too. everything so that operating them becomes humanly What does this reveal about India? Someone somewhere possible. had kept steadily chipping away at shaping foreign policy, The mix was eclectic. Air-to-Surface (British ultimately achieving a reversal of relationship unimaginable Sea Eagle), Torpedoes (Italian A244S), Depth Charge Mk two decades ago. 11 (Indian), Radar (British), Dunking Sonar (French), The arrival of the second set of multirole helicopters at ESM (Italian), Sonobuoy System (British), Tactical Air the end of the 1980s had been two decades after the arrival Navigation System (British), V/UHF & HF Communication of the first batch in 1970. Two decades is the legitimate time systems (USA) and a British TMS. period after which such aircraft should be replaced. This was the first time anyone was attempting to integrate The third set should have come by 2010. But the complex this stupendous mix of capabilities into one helicopter. The wheels of geopolitics and geoeconomics delayed this arrival best part was that this entire architecture was designed by by 10 years. India had steadily got stronger too during the India, to be executed by WHL. This complex integration period. It was only natural that suitors would flock, attracted effort was the aviation equivalent of the amazing integration by the value of our friendship and our money. of multi-country origin equipment the Indian Navy had Soon after, I presented the memento of two painted achieved with the Godavari Class. elephants to my ship, I moved to New Delhi. One day, early Only those who operated the 42Bs in their prime would on at the Aviation Directorate, I took a fresh, blue coloured know the extreme invincibility we felt. It will not be too official file cover and wrote multirole helicopters on it with wrong to say that with half a dozen of them flying, the a black marker pen. Little did I know at that time, that it will Arabian Sea had shrunk to a pond. Suddenly, submarines take 20 years for the English I started filling into the file, to in the region had a potent enemy and ships of adversaries manifest as real helicopters. I am glad that the day is almost couldn’t be sure of their safety from incoming missiles. here. A most critical operational gap is about to be closed. Those making electronic transmissions could be Indian naval aviation is poised to soar higher. identified and Over The Horizon Targeting as well as long- range communications capabilities became virtual game- (The writer has served the Indian Navy for 36 years. He changers. After a decade of this glory, the US sanctions hit. is a specialist in Air Warfare and Anti-Submarine Warfare. But the Bravos continued to operate. They still do. Published in arrangement with Defence Research and It is ironic that the country, which attempted to degrade Studies. The article is available on dras.in)

20 MARCH 2021 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY

Deployment of autonomous weapon systems a future challenge

By Commander (Dr) Jayakrishnan N Nair with the Member States and provide ideas and advice to facilitate dialogue that can advance multilateral arms Deployment of autonomous weapon systems is going to be control and disarmament. a challenging task for nations in the coming years. Artificial Of late, UNIDIR has started focusing on the element of Intelligence has pushed the boundaries of autonomy, human control over LAWS. The decisions are taken at various wherein the human interventions are going to be very stages/levels shapes the final outcome of an autonomous minimal in future. engagement. The legal outcome of decisions that a nation Weapons of Mass destruction (WMD) have been a threat can take needs to be deliberated and vetted prior to the to mankind since World War II. Lethal Autonomous implementation of policy governing autonomous systems. Weapon Systems (LAWS) are posing another kind of threat to humanity. The level of autonomy defines how dangerous Threat perception the weapon could be for nations. The underlying threat perceived by a nation from Leading military powers are in a rally to design and adversaries is a major factor that decides the design of an develop fully autonomous systems. Human control of autonomous system. Stonewalling between nations would machines is minimising since the level of autonomy is lead to generating fear of the unknown between them, increasing year after year. Getting these weapons into the triggering the development of systems for self-protection. hands of non-state actors is even more dangerous. The perceived threats across borders force the nations and United Nations Institute for Disarmament and Research their political leaderships to make decisions which could (UNIDIR) is an autonomous institution under the trigger an autonomous arms race. United Nations which conducts independent research on disarmament and international security issues. They are Political Decisions focused on disarmament and arms control. They engage The decisions are taken by the ruling Governments

MARCH 2021 21 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY

done in this stage. Possible collateral damage also can be worked out. Prepared targets are briefed to the authorized commander, who may consult functional advisers and decide to approve, suspend, or disapprove the targets or to forward the decision to the appropriate engagement authority.

Tactical Level Planning Mission planning is done at the next level. Tactical- level planners perform detailed mission planning for the execution of operations. This may include the location, type, size, and material of the target. Planning may include weapon capabilities and effects, civilian patterns of life, time of the attack, munition fragmentation patterns, and secondary explosions. Before on the development of autonomous weapon systems deployment, equipment may need to be assessed and shape the policy governing them. This decision varies modified to comply with applicable requirements and according to the threat perception. The decision taken by environmental conditions in the battlespace. the government is very critical regarding autonomy, which will have ramifications on the strategic and operational Mission Execution decisions. Nations can take decisions on the advancement At this final critical stage, the target is found, fixed, tracked of autonomous weapon systems to enjoy the geographical/ and engaged. The attack may be ordered, transmitted, regional hegemony. monitored, and executed. This may include weapons release. The option to suspend or cancel the mission should Strategic Level Decisions be available to avoid collateral damage. Once the decisions at the political level are taken on Post execution, assessments and evaluation are done to the level of autonomy, the strategic decisions can follow measure the effectiveness of the attack for future reference. subsequently. The strategy for military operation must Achieving a legitimate military objective and proportionality comply with Rules of Engagement (ROE) and law including of civilian losses to military advantage is also measured. a legitimate military objective which can be successfully Assessment should also verify compliance with the rules of achieved through legitimate military means without engagement viz-a-viz level of autonomy. excessive incidental loss of civilian lives and the collateral damages. Way Ahead A military strategy involves the formulation of specific Deployment of autonomous weapon systems needs objectives, including the ways to accomplish objectives. detailed inhouse deliberations at the apex level in future. The number of civilian casualties that military action could The political establishment has a responsible role in defining create with or without seeking approval at the highest/ the level of autonomy of the system being developed. The political levels are to be defined. The designated target must level of autonomy adopted needs to be under a framework be a legitimate military target and must comply with ROE. universally accepted by nations. Human elements in the The law governing should consider the principles of military autonomous system should remain and the option to cancel necessity, distinction, proportionality, and precautions. or recall a launched weapon system should be vested with The maturity of political and military leadership will be the nation launching the weapons. displayed at this level. We are stepping into another cycle of the cold war. UNIDIR is working overnight to bring all nations to the Operational Planning table to put an end to the ongoing autonomous weapon Strategic-level guidance is translated into operational- race. Efforts are to be there to audit the decision-making level objectives, guidance and intent. These form the mechanisms of nations possessing autonomous weapon cornerstone of the targeting process at the operational and systems. tactical levels. This is a foundational process in identifying the most relevant targets. A target’s importance is perceived (The writer is avionics engineer by profession. He in its relationship with other targets. has served the Indian Navy for 25 years. Published in Target analysis focuses on identifying these arrangement with Defence Research and Studies. The interdependencies and vulnerabilities. After target analysis, article is available on dras.in) target validation, nomination, prioritisation and approval is

22 MARCH 2021 BUSINESS AND POLITICS OF ARMING INDIA

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BUSINESS AND POLITICS OF ARMING INDIA MARCH 2021

ORDNANCE FACTORY DAY SPECIAL Corporatisation Ahead India’s state-run Ordnance Factory Board to have new management structure soon

24 MARCH 2021