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Land Use Change in Maasailand Drivers

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Land Use Change in Maasailand Drivers Title LAND USE CHANGE IN MAASAILAND DRIVERS, DYNAMICS AND IMPACTS ON LARGE- HERBIVORES AND AGRO-PASTORALISM FORTUNATA URBAN MSOFFE A dissertation submitted to the College of Science and Engineering in accordance with the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the School of Geosciences The University of Edinburgh August 2010 Total word count 34,783 Contents Title............................................................................................................................... i Contents ......................................................................................................................ii List of Tables ............................................................................................................. iv List of Figures............................................................................................................. v List of Plates .............................................................................................................vii Acknowledgements..................................................................................................viii Thesis Certification.................................................................................................... x Abstract...................................................................................................................... xi 1 Chapter One: General Introduction ................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Drivers and causes of land use and land cover change ................................. 2 1.2.1 Agriculture and land-use change........................................................... 3 1.2.2 Human population growth and land-use change................................... 4 1.2.3 Impacts of land-use/cover change on biodiversity and ecosystems....... 4 1.2.4 Land use/cover change and impacts on migratory species.................... 5 1.3 The Maasailand- people, land use and changes............................................. 5 1.4 Studies on land use/cover change in Maasailand .......................................... 8 1.5 Research Aims............................................................................................... 9 1.5.1 Thesis objectives ......................................................................................... 9 1.6 Thesis Structure............................................................................................. 9 2 Chapter Two: Drivers and impacts of land-use change in the Maasai Steppe of Northern Tanzania: an ecological-social-political analysis................. 11 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 12 2.2 Materials and Methods ................................................................................ 14 2.2.1 Study area ............................................................................................ 14 2.2.2 Methods................................................................................................ 18 2.3 Results ......................................................................................................... 21 2.3.1 Broad trends in land-use change from remote sensing: agricultural expansion ........................................................................................................... 21 2.3.2 Agricultural expansion in relation to rainfall zones and rainfall patterns 22 2.3.3 Agricultural expansion in relation to protected areas and its impacts on wildlife migratory corridors.......................................................................... 26 2.3.4 Historical analysis and synthesis of policies and major events that have impacted land use changes in Tarangire-Simanjiro ecosystem......................... 27 2.4 Discussion and conclusions......................................................................... 33 3 Chapter Three: Spatial correlates of land-use changes in the Maasai-Steppe of Tanzania: Implications for conservation and environmental planning ......... 38 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 39 3.2 Materials and Methods ................................................................................ 40 3.2.1 Study area ............................................................................................ 40 3.2.2 Data and methods ................................................................................ 43 ii 3.2.3 Statistical and spatial analyses............................................................ 43 3.3 Results ......................................................................................................... 45 3.3.1 Patterns of spatial distribution of cultivation and the biophysical variables............................................................................................................. 45 3.3.2 Mapping the probability of agricultural conversion and wildlife range 51 3.4 Discussion ................................................................................................... 53 4 Chapter Four: Participatory wildlife surveys in communal lands: A case study from Simanjiro, Tanzania............................................................................. 57 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 58 4.2 Methods ....................................................................................................... 61 4.3 Results ......................................................................................................... 64 4.3.1 Survey implementation......................................................................... 64 4.3.2 Density Estimates................................................................................. 64 4.4 Discussion ................................................................................................... 68 5 Chapter Five: Wildebeest Migration in East Africa: Status, threats and conservation measures............................................................................................. 73 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 74 5.2 Materials and methods................................................................................. 76 5.2.1 Study Area............................................................................................ 76 5.2.2 Mapping migratory routes and ranges ................................................ 77 5.2.3 Wildebeest population trend ................................................................ 80 5.2.4 Distribution of cultivation and fences.................................................. 80 5.2.5 Statistical Analysis ............................................................................... 80 5.3 Results ......................................................................................................... 80 5.3.1 Historic Geographic patterns of migratory routes .............................. 80 5.3.2 Trends in wildebeest population .......................................................... 84 5.4 Discussion ................................................................................................... 88 6 Chapter Six: Thesis Summary and Discussion.............................................. 92 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 92 6.2 Summary of key findings from the data chapters........................................ 92 6.3 Implications of the results in the broader context ....................................... 95 6.4 Suggestion for further research ................................................................... 98 6.5 Conclusion................................................................................................. 100 7 References ....................................................................................................... 101 8 Appendices...................................................................................................... 114 iii List of Tables Table 2.1 Changes in cultivated area (in km2) between 1984 and 2000 in the Tarangire Ecosystem, Monduli and Simanjiro Districts. The changes show areas where agriculture was present in 1984 and 2000, abandoned by 2000 and where new fields were created by 2000. ............................ 22 Table 2.2 Results of Mann-Whitney U-tests comparing changes in areas under cultivation by district and rainfall zones. Note the significant relationships between increasing cultivation and rainfall. ...................... 23 Table 2.3 Human population changes in the Tarangire ecosystem, Monduli and Simanjiro Districts between 1978 and 2002. The figures show annual percentage population growth rates between 1978-1988 and 1988-2002. ................................................................................................................. 31 Table 3.1 Information-theoretic model selection of a priori candidate models explaining the presence of cultivation in Simanjiro and Monduli Districts in 2000 and the bio-physical variables included in each model.............. 46 Table 3.2 Results of the multiple logistic regression of the probability of presence of cultivated farms against biophysical
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