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Public Opinion Survey in Poland

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Public Opinion Survey in Poland Public Opinion Survey in Poland May 17-31, 2017 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research by GfK Polonia, a global market research company. • The survey was conducted between May 17 and May 31, 2017 through face-to-face interviews. • Sample size: Total population (n=1,000). • Margin of error: Plus or minus 3 percent with 95 percent confidence level. The method of nationally representative quota sampling was used for this research. • The distribution of demographic features used for the sample design is derived from the Central Statistical Office of Poland. • The sample was designed according to a four-stage process. Stage One: A primary sampling unit was selected and stratified according to macro-region and town size; 55 stratas were obtained. Stage Two: 170 communities were formed based on a rural/urban split. Stage Three: The number of respondents for each region was identified in proportion to the size of the population aged 18 years and older. Stage Four: A secondary sampling unit was selected and assigned starting points (streets in the case of urban communities and localities in the case of rural communities). These starting points were randomly selected for each community that was formed in the second stage.The potential respondents were recruited to the starting points by quota method (gender, age, education level). Quotas reflect the structure of the population. 2 Detailed Methodology Continued • Data was weighted according to the primary socio-demographic features: gender; age (18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-70, 70+); region (9 regions); town size (village up to 20.000 inhabitants, 20.000-50.000, 50.000-100.000, 100.000-200.000, 200.000-500.000, more than 500.000 inhabitants); and urban/rural. Representative distribution in aggregate form was ensured in those cross demographic criteria (e.g. gender x age, gender x region, age x region, age x household size, gender x household size, region x size of residence, region x household size, gender x education). In addition to marginal distributions of demographic features listed above, joint distributions were also used (i.e. region versus town size, gender versus region, gender versus age versus urban/rural). • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding error. 3 Glossary of Polish Political Parties • PO—The Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) • PiS—Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) • PSL—The Polish People's Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe) • SLD—Democratic Left Alliance (Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej) • .N—Modern (Nowoczesna) • Together Party (Partia Razem) • K’15—Kukiz’15 4 Regions of Poland Pomerania Warmia-Masuria West Pomorskie CENTRAL-Masovia Pomerania 1 Warmińsko- mazurskie Podlasie NORTH-EAST-Podlasie Province, Warmia-Masuria Zachodnio- Kuyavia Province 2 pomorskie Pomerania Kujawsko- Podlaskie NORTH-Pomerania, West-Pomerania pomorskie 3 Greater Poland Masovia SOUTH-EAST-Lesser Poland, Subcarpathia, Holy Cross Province Lubus Mazowieckie 4 Wielkopolskie Lodz Lubuskie SOUTH-Opole Province, Silesia Province Lublin 5 Lower Silesia Łódzkie Province MIDDLE-EAST-Lublin Province Holy Cross 6 DolnośląskieOpole Lubelskie Province Province Silesia MIDDLE-Łodz Province Świętokrzyskie 7 Opolskie Śląskie Subcarpathia Lesser SOUTH-WEST-Lubus, Lower Silsesia Poland 8 Podkarpackie Małopolskie WEST-Greater Poland, Kuyavia Pomerania 9 General Perceptions of the State of the Country Overall, would you say that Poland is headed in the right or wrong direction? 17% 38% 45% Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 7 Overall, would you say that Poland is headed in the right or wrong direction? (Disaggregated by region) Total 38% 45% 17% Central 46% 40% 14% North-East 38% 42% 19% North 44% 37% 19% South-East 41% 41% 18% South 41% 51% 7% Middle-East 32% 51% 17% Middle 33% 56% 11% West 31% 43% 26% South-West 29% 52% 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 8 What are the first and second most urgent problems facing Poland today? (open-ended question) 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% First mention Second mention 9 Would you say that democracy is functioning well in Poland? 45% 40% 39% 35% 32% 30% 25% 20% 15% 14% 10% 7% 8% 5% 0% Very well Somewhat well Not very well Not well at all Don't know/No answer 10 What is the most important reason why democracy is functioning well in Poland? (Open-ended question; respondents who replied very or somewhat well: n=458) Freedom of speech 21% Individual freedom/Free country 12% Free and fair elections 11% Freedom to protest 6% Economic growth 5% Civil rights are guaranteed 4% 500+ child benefit program 4% Low level of unemployment 4% Good government/Parliament 3% Don't know 14% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 11 What is the most important reason why democracy is not functioning well in Poland? (Open-ended question; respondents who replied not very well or not well at all: n=398) Poor performance of the current government 27% Disagreement over the Constitutional Court 10% Government does not take into account opinions 10% of common people No compromise between politicians 10% Violations of civil rights 8% No free speech 4% No democracy 3% Problems with the law 2% No independent courts/The courts depend on 2% politicians Jarosław Kaczyński, Chairman of Law and Justice 2% party 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 12 Thinking about its evolution over the past year, how would you rate the direction of democracy in Poland today? 12% 7% 10% 40% 31% Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Very negative Don't know/No answer 13 In general, would you say that Poland is functioning more or less democratically than each of the following countries: 40% 38% 37% 35% 34% 35% 33% 31% 30% 27% 25% 25% 25% 21% 21% 20% 18% 18% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 12% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 5% 5% 0% Germany France United States of America Hungary Russia Significantly more democratically Somewhat more democratically Somewhat less democratically Significantly less democratically Don't know/Refused to answer 14 Views of Democracy If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy? 7% 7% Democracy is definitely more important to me 19% 30% Democracy is somewhat more important to me Prosperity is somewhat more important to me Prosperity is definitely more important to me 36% Don't know/No answer 16 How important are each of the following elements in ensuring Poland's democracy? 80% 73% 70% 69% 71% 70% 63% 63% 65% 60% 50% 43% 42% 40% 34% 30% 29% 30% 23% 26% 25% 23% 20% 12% 10% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 0% Respect for The government The economic Guaranteeing Guaranteeing Guaranteeing Fighting terrorism The economic individual rights taking into development of minority rights justice for all order and stability prosperity of and liberties account citizens' the country as a citizens individuals priorities whole Very important Quite important Not so important Not important at all Don't know/No answer 17 How important are each of the following elements in making any country a democracy? 70% 65% 65% 59% 60% 56% 55% 48% 47% 50% 44% 41% 36% 38% 40% 35% 35% 35% 30% 28% 30% 20% 13% 12% 7% 7% 9% 10% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% The national Citizens are Citizens have a Citizens are free The government There are free and Talent and merit Minorities are interest takes protected against private space that to demonstrate, addresses the fair elections are rewarded respected priority over poverty cannot be violated contest, or question of social offering real individual interest petition inequality choice to the voters Very important Quite important Not so important Not important at all Don't know/No answer 18 The rule of law in a democracy can be understood as “a state where all people and institutions are accountable to the law and the Constitution, and the Constitution and the law are equally applied to all.” How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “The rule of law exists in Poland.” 9% Completely agree 13% 7% Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree 24% Completely disagree 47% Don't know/No Answer 19 Opinion on citizen vs. state rights and responsibilities: Which one of the following statements is closest to your opinion? Total 15% 18% 63% 3% Central 13% 25% 59% 2% North-East 14% 17% 64% 5% North 30% 13% 53% 3% South-East 17% 16% 64% 2% South 11% 22% 67% Middle-East 9% 14% 76% Middle 22% 5% 70% 3% West 14% 16% 67% 3% South-West 8% 23% 62% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In a democracy, citizens should have more rights than responsibilities before the state In a democracy, citizens should have more responsibilities than rights before the state In a democracy, there should be a balance between rights and responsibilities of the citizens before the state Don't know/No answer 20 Which measure do you think would be most relevant to make democracy function better in Poland? There should be more direct consultation with the people in setting policy (e.g. 6% through referenda) 23% There should be more freedom for the party in government to put in place the programs on the basis of which it was elected 47% Decisions should be made in a more consensual manner in parliament, with the 24% opposition and government working together to settle their differences Don't know/No answer 21 Perceptions of Institutions To what degree do
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