Planning for the Energy Transition and How to Overcome the Misfits of the Current Paradigm

Article Planning for the Energy Transition and How to Overcome the Misﬁts of the Current Paradigm

Rob Roggema Research Centre for the Built Environment NoorderRuimte, School of Architecture and Built Environment, Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen, 9704 AA Groningen, The Netherlands; [email protected]; Tel.: +31-6287-456-34 Received: 7 September 2020; Accepted: 24 November 2020; Published: 25 November 2020

Abstract: The current paradigm for planning an energy transition is often embedded in practices within the existing political and societal regime. Within this paradigm, a genuine transformation to a fully fossil-free future is often not achieved. Thus, the problem is that in order to arrive at such a newly conceived future, the concepts and solutions created need to be fundamentally diﬀerent from practices in recent past and present. At the same time, the community is not prepared for big changes, and the unknown future is experienced as uncertain and undesirable. These two mechanisms perpetuate current practices and prevent a new future from emerging. In this article, we will demonstrate how these two movements can be connected to disrupt incremental and path-dependent development, allowing people to become visionary and co-design a transformative future with innovative concepts. The Dutch Groningen region is used as an illustrative example for realising fundamental shifts supported by a bottom-up engagement process.

Keywords: transformative change; multi-level perspective; collaborative learning; co-design; energy transition; fossil-free future

1. Introduction The energy transition towards the use of renewable resources is often seen as a non-linear, wicked problem [1,2]. On one hand, the need for a transition is widely recognised, policies are adopted, and ambitions are clear. To meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement [3], the EU aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by a minimum of 40% (from 1990 levels), reach at least a 32% share of renewable energy, and improve energy efficiency by at least 32.5%, which are the 2018 upwardly adjusted objectives of the 2014 framework [4]. Besides this, the technology which can make this transition possible is advanced, and ready for implementation. Large scale wind and solar parks [5] have been realised or are under construction, a hydrogen future is envisaged [6], and smart grids have been well-researched [7]. However, this technology is all subject to an existing context in which political negotiations, policymaking, and compromises in governance determine the outcome of what is achievable. Moreover, existing interests of current energy producers prevent a transition towards a novel system, as this places them at risk of losing market value. Therefore, the discussions are often oriented towards the costs of technology for a certain end goal as opposed to discussing a desired sustainable future in which renewable sources are used to supply energy. When the problem is wicked, the basic flaw in thinking is to find a single answer, though for these types of problems, that is usually not possible. The negotiated average as a means to reach the desired transition will undoubtedly provide a solution for a problem that has already changed in an unexpected way once the solution is proposed. It is therefore utterly important a perspective on realizing the energy transition is taken that starts from a novel point of departure, e.g., the need for a fundamental reduction in energy use, reuse of waste energy and the use of renewables. This will need to ban the use of fossil resources

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use of fossil resources for energy delivery. Moreover, this novel perspective should behold the forprinciple energy delivery. of using Moreover,less than available this novel and perspective capture more should carbon behold and other the principleGHGs (Green of using House less Gas) than availablethan emitted. and capture more carbon and other GHGs (Green House Gas) than emitted. ThisThis is whatis what occurs occurs in in an an existing existing context, context, wherewhere thethe needneed forfor development and and institutional institutional governancegovernance processes processes prevails. prevails. These These contradict contradict withwith longerlonger term developments and and larger larger spatial spatial scalesscales [8 ],[8], forming forming anan adaptation gap gap [9]. [9 ].In planning In planning terminology, terminology, policymaking policymaking as well as as climate well as climatenegotiations negotiations are “muddling are “muddling through” through” [10], while [10], uncertainty while uncertainty and wicked and problems wicked problemsrequire “unsafe require “unsafeplanning” planning” [11]. Dealing [11]. Dealing with wicked with wicked problems problems [12] requires [12] requires bridging bridging this gap, this aligning gap, aligning local and local andshort-term short-term needs needs with with long-term long-term and and large-scale large-scale uncertainties uncertainties (Figure (Figure 1). 1).

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FigureFigure 1. 1.The The adaptation adaptation gap gap andand wickedwicked problems [9]. [9]. The objective of solving a wicked problem without bridging the adaptation gap, e.g., without The objective of solving a wicked problem without bridging the adaptation gap, e.g., without thinkingthinking beyond beyond current current development development needs needs and and the the attached attached institutionalinstitutional governance governance system, system, is is like like tryingtrying to find to find a static a static solution solution for a dynamic for a dynamic problem problem or striving or forstriving linearity for in linearity a nonlinear in a environment. nonlinear environment.Wicked problems are characterised as unstructured. This implies these types of problems are difficultWicked to solve problems with technical–rational are characterised approaches as unstructur thated. are This commonly implies these used totypes deal of with problems structured are problemsdifficult [ 13to]. solve Even with “repairing” technical–rational the existing approaches framework that are to commonly face fundamentally used to deal di ffwitherent structured problems is notproblems satisfying, [13]. Even because “repairing” this “repaired the existing existing framew framework”ork to face will fundamentally still solve problemsdifferent problems in the same is waynot it alwayssatisfying, has. because Muddling this “repaired through [existing10] interprets framework” planning will asstill looking solve problems at incremental in the same changes way to theit problem always has. in comparison Muddling through with the [10] former interprets problem. planning This impliesas looking that at policymakers incremental changes “tend to to avoid the interpretingproblem in problems comparison as unstructured, with the former whilst problem. maintaining This implies limited that dimensions policymakers and “tend targets to thatavoid do notinterpreting represent the problems ‘real world’ as unstructured, using linear whilst trend maintaining extrapolations limited overlooking dimensions relevant and targets elements that of do the problem”not represent [14]. the ‘real world’ using linear trend extrapolations overlooking relevant elements of the problem”The continuation [14]. of planning, policymaking, and negotiating for solutions within the existing set of institutionalThe continuation rules andof planning, habits complicates policymaking, planning and negotiating for an uncertain for solutions future. within Problems the existing that are notset clear of institutional at the start or rules may and be unknownhabits complicates cannot be planning solved infor a an singular uncertain way. future. This alsoProblems makes that the are end not clear at the start or may be unknown cannot be solved in a singular way. This also makes the end goal of minimising GHG emissions, to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees, almost impossible goal of minimising GHG emissions, to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees, almost impossible to to achieve. achieve. A fundamentally alternative viewpoint is therefore needed to achieve the desired goal. A fundamentally alternative viewpoint is therefore needed to achieve the desired goal. Here, Here, other ingredients, which are often absent in the discussions about the energy transition, other ingredients, which are often absent in the discussions about the energy transition, must play a mustrole. play Despite a role. being Despite a multi-facetted being a multi-facetted concept, the concept, energy the transition energy transitionis often looked is often at lookedfrom a at fromtechnological a technological perspective, perspective, less so less from so spatial, from spatial, engagement, engagement, social or socialtime viewpoints. or time viewpoints. As an example As an exampleof this of orientation this orientation the International the International Renewabl Renewablee Energy Energy Agency Agency (IRENA) (IRENA) states: states: “The “The energy energy transitiontransition will will be enabledbe enabled by information by information technology, technology, smart smart technology, technology, policy policy frameworks frameworks and market and instruments”market instruments” [15]. Its focus [15]. onIts threefocus pillars,on three being pillars, “(1) Powerbeing “(1) sector Power transformation sector transformation knowledge: knowledge products and methodologies, (2) Energy system models and data: techno-economic and electrical models with associated data and (3) Energy planning support: application of knowledge World 2020, 1 266 and modelling tools to support member countries”, and still resembles a more traditional focus. Stepping away from the technically dominated approaches to energy transition, the imagination and the citizen can play a crucial role in establishing a novel energy system. Imagination can bring an entirely novel future within view, even if this requires a complete overturn of current convictions and necessitates transformative processes. The citizen can play a crucial role in inventing its own future environment and when this happens a larger support for novel ideas emerges. This requires a process in which the citizen is at the heart of the debate and co-designs (and co-authors) the outcomes. This paradigm shift naturally has implications for the use of existing technologies. A transition towards energy positivity and carbon sinking, though, out of the scope of this article, should be calculated as end of use of these technologies and include a thorough life cycle analysis. Based on these analyses, the opportunities to mix radical and smooth changes should be investigated to come to a balanced transition pathway. In this article, the transformative, more radical elements are highlighted. However, the systems and products that are no longer “of use” in the novel paradigm should not be brought to developing countries where they continue to add to rising GHG levels. Therefore, a carbon-free future requires to be calculated with global consequences of abrupt change in the developed regions in mind, as it is important not to have only clean energy in developed countries whilst pollution continues in developing regions of the globe. The purpose of this article is to emphasise the organisational and societal constraints of reaching a low carbon future by linking transformational theories and applying these to concrete planning processes. The article is limited to these aspects and does not focus on the mechanisms in the energy industry, presenting concrete industry actions or products, nor does it aim to assess the feasibility of propositions or the economic benefits of planning proposals that are required to enhance the energy transition.

2. Methodology In this article, three foundations are used to establish an environment in which transformative perspectives can emerge, creating space for the creativity to tackle wicked problems. Emphasis is put on the transformation process itself, the context in which niche innovations emerge, and the way collaborative learning conditions can be created. These elements together form an integrated framework for a planning process that leapfrogs the current paralysis and self-organises both co-creation and the content. This way, it is able to overcome the established approaches that are ill-suited to delivering satisfying solutions to wicked problems. Moreover, when a linear solution is proposed for a wicked problem, the solution itself can increase the wickedness of the problem, pushing the desired future further away. Therefore, when it comes to wicked problems, unprecedented ideas are needed, which are often too far from current practices to be easily acceptable for people, policy, and politics. The paradox is thus that these ideas are required to deal with the wicked problem but are too extraordinary to be implementable. The question is therefore whether, and if so, how, this paradox can be dealt with. To investigate this question, the following methodology is applied:

1. A novel framework is constructed for transformative self-organisation (Section3). This theoretical framework brings together bodies of thought that put emphasis on their emergent capabilities, such as being able to generate self-organizing processes and principles, not only related to physical or technical flexibility, but also to the dynamics of the planning process itself and the prolonged impact of the change of mindset of the participants. Insights from transformation, multilevel perspective and collaborative learning are used to construct the framework; 2. A suitable environment is identified for co-creative innovations (Section4). Once the theoretical framework is established, the conditions for a successful planning/design process can be defined. The capacity to invent novelties that are able to break through the existing conventions is essential for reaching an alternative future, can be located in the theoretical framework. These conditions are needed to allow for a mindset in which creative jumps, co-creation, and value creation can World 2020, 1 267

emerge. In this section, specific outcomes and initial invented novelties, resulting from this particular environment, are presented; 3. An evaluation and reflection of the outcomes of the planning projects and processes undertaken in the first decade of the 20th century are undertaken (Section5). The main discussion being whether the spin-off has led to disrupting the mainstream thinking that was apparent in this period. The evaluation has been carried out through 17 conversations and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders who were involved in the design and planning processes. Former project leaders, decision makers, academics and bureaucrats in the region have reflected on the impact and reach of the initial invented novelties primarily with regard to the role spatial planning and design plays within the energy transition.

3. Theoretical Framework For constructing a theoretical framework to deal with wicked problems, foundations are found in complexity theory and design-led approaches. Bringing together existing thinking on transformations, multilevel perspective and collaborative learning seems eclectic. However, these find a joint basis in dealing with emergent processes and acknowledge self-organisation as a driver for spatial change, process organisation and societal and mental shift. Scenario planning [16–18] is an extremely valuable method, as it broadens viewpoints that are generally limiting the policy field to a single problem–solution relationship. However, scenario planning limits itself, scoping the main axes as the sole defining parameters constructing the scenarios. This implicitly confines the scope and outcomes of the methodology. Especially in a dynamic environment, which has to deal with the wicked problems a scenario-based approach excludes such as the unknown unknowns that are significantly important in dealing with future uncertainties. This gives reason for not making scenario planning part of the framework. The framework aims to break through existing conventions, hence requires the capabilities to intrinsically enhance processes of self-organisation, emergence, and grounded theory. These encourage transformative processes, developing from the inside, without a clear end, and without embeddedness in the recent past, habits, or unwritten rules and agreements. Instead of “muddling through”, these theories give space for unsafe [11] ways of thinking, designing, and planning. Design problems, also seen as wicked, unstructured, problems, can be linked to the “Reflexive Practice Approach” [19]. A so-called collaborative learning strategy is well-suited to tackle these types of unstructured problems [20]. In case there is consensus on values and norms, this is missing, and there is no certainty regarding the required scientific knowledge and an alternative working approach is needed. People involved in design-led approaches are invited to “present information on the issue, become aware of the multiple aspects of the problem, and are enabled to reframe their conception of the problem” [21]. This allows them to develop new visions for the distinguished problems.

3.1. Transformation The urgency to invent and design innovative and unprecedented future visions is high. Being a wicked problem, the energy transition demands more than technical solutions to linear problems, as these will only exaggerate the problems they aim to tackle. The question is then how and where these novel ideas can be developed. A future vision with these characteristics can only be conceived outside the existing system of policy making and planning. This ﬁrst creative jump [22] must be made from the existing context to a novel environment, landing on the avenue to an alternative future. Transformation trajectories [23–25] are described as “the capacity to transform the stability landscape itself in order to become a diﬀerent kind of system, to create a fundamentally new system when ecological, economic, or social structures make the existing system untenable” [26] or as “disconnected processes of growth” [27]. The disconnection (or the need to part from the original system, A), is represented as a beginning of the next “forming” cycle, a new phase 1 (Figure2). The start World 2020, 1 268

WorldWorld 2020 2020, ,1 1, ,FOR FOR PEER PEER REVIEW REVIEW 55 ofstart astart transformative of of a a transformative transformative process process process occurs occurs occurs outside outside outside the the existingthe existing existing regime regime regime while while while the the the current current currentsystem system system isis is stillstill in operationinin operation operation [28]. [28]. [28].

PhasePhase 3. 3. innovation innovation

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Figure 2. Transformational process (adapted from [29]). FigureFigure 2. 2. Transformational Transformational process process (adapted (adapted from from [29]). [29]). This transformation requires a (creative) jump to the new cycle at the moment the current cycle of ThisThis transformation transformation requires requires a a (creative) (creative) jump jump to to the the new new cycle cycle at at the the moment moment the the current current cycle cycle change is getting less and less satisfying. When the tension of the current system with the demands of ofof change change is is getting getting less less and and less less satisfying. satisfying. When When the the tension tension of of the the current current system system with with the the demands demands itsofof environment its its environment environment becomes becomes becomes too too too strong, strong, strong, a a jump a jump jump is is is likely like likelyly toto to occur. occur. However, However,However, smart smart smart planning planning planning anticipates anticipates anticipates thisthisthis tension tension tension long long long before before before it it it is is is actuallyactually actually noticeable,noticeable, noticeable, ev evenevenen before before the the existing existing existing system system system is is isreaching reaching reaching its its itshighest highest highest success,success,success, when when when it it isit is is in in in its its its highest highest highest balancebalance balance oror or order, order, and and no nono urgency urgencyurgency to to jump jump is is is felt. felt. felt. TheTheThe forming forming forming of of of the the the new new new systemsystem system (B) (B) can can only onlyonly take take place place through through through inventing inventing inventing new new new things things things (Figure (Figure (Figure 3), 3), 3 ), disconnecteddisconnecteddisconnected from from from the the the current current current system.system. system. Once Once this thisthis has has happened, happened, system system system B B Bbegins begins begins its its itsown own own trajectory trajectory trajectory towardstowardstowards the the the desired desired desired or or visionaryor visionary visionary future. future. future. It It isIt is clearis clea clea thatrr that that by by by establishing establishing establishing such such such a novela a novel novel system, system, system, B canBB can can only happenonlyonly happenhappen by moving byby movingmoving away from awayaway the fromfrom pathway thethe pathwaypathway of system ofof A,systemsystem as this A,A, will asas this onlythis willwill lead onlyonly to renewed leadlead toto renewed versionsrenewed of thisversionsversions system, of of orthis this A-dashes system, system, or [or30 A-dashes ],A-dashes eventually [30], [30], culminatingev eventuallyentually culminating culminating in an unwanted in in an an unwanted future.unwanted future. future.

B’B’ visionaryvisionary future future

BB desireddesired future future

futurefuture presentpresent AA A’A’ A’’A’’ futurefuture unwantedunwanted future future transformationaltransformational jump jump

BB-- inventedinvented novelty novelty

Figure 3. Transformational jump from existing pathway A towards new system B [30]. FigureFigure 3. 3. Transformational Transformational jump jump fr fromom existing existing pathway pathway A A towards towards new new system system B B [30]. [30]. When turbulence of the existing context causes disturbances, aiming for a stable equilibrium is When turbulence of the existing context causes disturbances, aiming for a stable equilibrium is difficultWhen and turbulence can even be of counterproductive.the existing context causes Viewing disturbances, the urban aiming landscape for a as stable perpetually equilibrium stable is is difficultdifficult and and can can even even be be counterproductive. counterproductive. Viewin Viewingg the the urban urban landscape landscape as as perpetually perpetually stable stable is is an an an illusion and could end in a hard confrontation with rapid, unprecedented changes. Aiming for illusionillusion andand couldcould endend inin aa hardhard confrontationconfrontation wiwithth rapid,rapid, unprecedentedunprecedented changes.changes. AimingAiming forfor aa a dynamic change therefore begins with inventing the desired future state B. To reach this future dynamicdynamic changechange thereforetherefore beginsbegins wiwithth inventinginventing thethe desireddesired futurefuture statestate B.B. ToTo reachreach thisthis futurefuture system B, system A is useless, as it only can turn into regressive A-dashes. The transformation can only systemsystem B, B, system system A A is is useless, useless, as as it it only only can can tu turnrn into into regressive regressive A-dashes. A-dashes. The The transformation transformation can can happen when B-minuses, predecessors of the future system B (or a “hidden novelty” [30]), are found, onlyonly happen happen when when B-minuses, B-minuses, predecessors predecessors of of the the fu futureture system system B B (or (or a a “hidden “hidden novelty” novelty” [30]), [30]), are are which can then become the new starting points of development [31]. The future is then “becoming” found,found, whichwhich cancan thenthen becomebecome thethe newnew startingstarting popointsints ofof developmentdevelopment [31][31]. . TheThe futurefuture isis thenthen rather than being planned from the top-down. This post-anarchistic planning emphasises the use World 2020, 1 269 World 2020, 1, FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of“becoming” self-organising rather groups, than planningbeing planned their own from environments the top-down. without This beingpost-anarchistic led by the planning traditional governmentalemphasises the or political use of self-organising arena, allowing groups, them plan to createning atheir disordered own environmen order of spacests without [32]. being This led “unsafe” by waythe of traditional planning governmental [11] searches or for political the B-minuses, arena, allo thewing peripheral them to create ideas a and disordered inventions, order to of reachspaces the desired[32]. This end-goal “unsafe” of systemic way of change planning to B, [11] which searches accommodates for the B-minuses, disruptive andthe unprecedentedperipheral ideas changes and andinventions, ignites growth to reach of athe new desired innovative end-goal environment. of systemic change to B, which accommodates disruptive and unprecedented changes and ignites growth of a new innovative environment. 3.2. Multilevel Perspective 3.2. Multilevel Perspective Once it is understood that the search for B-minuses needs to occur in order to bring about the requiredOnce transformation, it is understood we that must the acknowledge search for B-mi thatnuses the environmentneeds to occur within in order which to bring this about happens the is important.required transformation, Conceiving of anwe unprecedented,must acknowledge intrinsically that the environment dynamic future within only which happens this happens in a niche is environmentimportant. Conceiving where innovation of an unprecedented, can emerge. intr Accordinginsically dynamic to the multi-level future only perspective happens in [a28 niche,33,34 ], environment where innovation can emerge. According to the multi-level perspective [28,33,34], change starts in the locus of radical innovations where novel configurations appear. These radical change starts in the locus of radical innovations where novel configurations appear. These radical innovations are capable of interfering with and influencing established practices and associated innovations are capable of interfering with and influencing established practices and associated rules rules that normally stabilise existing socio-technical regimes (Figure4). Should the regime change that normally stabilise existing socio-technical regimes (Figure 4). Should the regime change under under these influences, the exogenous “landscape”, representing the nearly unchangeable values and these influences, the exogenous “landscape”, representing the nearly unchangeable values and biophysicalbiophysical features, features, might might transform. transform.

Long-term unchangeable values and biophysical features

LANDSCAPE Landscape transformation Desire for transformation Level Level of structuration

REGIMEBreakthrough Dynamically stable regime New dynamically stable regime Dominant design

Creating a window of opportunity Supporting and aligning novelties NICHE Inventing novelties

Time FigureFigure 4. 4.Regime Regime shift shift underunder inﬂuenceinfluence of nich nichee innovations innovations (adapted (adapted from from [28]). [28]).

WhenWhen a wickeda wicked problem problem is is encountered, encountered, the desire for for a a new new future future system system emerges, emerges, and and the the tensiontension with with the the existing existing regime regime is is profound, profound, a windowwindow of of opportunity opportunity opens opens up up for for new new inventions. inventions. ThisThis only only occurs occurs when when the the right right niches niches are are created, created, within within which which the the ideas ideas are are reinforced, reinforced, becoming becoming the dominantthe dominant design design and growing and growing strong strong enough enough to eventually to eventually break break through through the the current, current, forming forming a newa dynamicallynew dynamically stable stable regime. regime. The The effectiveness effectiveness and and power power of of the the innovation, innovation, e.g., e.g., whether whether a regime a regime transforms,transforms, are are determined determined by bythe the strengthsstrengths ofof thethe reinforcements at at the the regime regime and/or and/or landscape landscape levellevel [35 [35].]. InIn line with with the the thinking thinking on onhow how actively actively enforced enforced change change occurs, occurs, it seems it obvious seems obviousthat a thatsystem a system that is that better is betterat reinforcing at reinforcing new ideas new is better ideas equipped is better equippedto tackle unprecedented to tackle unprecedented change or changedisruptions or disruptions that cannot that be foreseen. cannot be However, foreseen. the However, tension between the tension the existing between regime, the existing reinforced regime, by reinforcedthe unchangeable by the unchangeable values and values biophysical and biophysical features featuresof the oflandscape the landscape and andthe thenecessity necessity to to fundamentally change and disrupt the current regime, is a battlefield between continuation of system fundamentally change and disrupt the current regime, is a battlefield between continuation of system A vs. transformation to system B. A vs. transformation to system B. Different transformation pathways are possible, depending on the readiness of niche Different transformation pathways are possible, depending on the readiness of niche developments, developments, the magnitude of the landscape change and the susceptibility of the regime actors [36]. the magnitude of the landscape change and the susceptibility of the regime actors [36]. Geels and Geels and Schot distinguish transformation (Transformation path: If there is moderate landscape Schot distinguish transformation (Transformation path: If there is moderate landscape pressure World 2020, 1 270

World 2020, 1, FOR PEER REVIEW 7 (“disruptive change”) at a moment when niche innovations have not yet been sufficiently developed, pressure (“disruptive change”) at a moment when niche innovations have not yet been sufficiently then regime actors will respond by modifying the direction of development paths and innovation developed, then regime actors will respond by modifying the direction of development paths and activities. In this pathway, moderate landscape changes create pressure on the regime, leading to innovation activities. In this pathway, moderate landscape changes create pressure on the regime, reorientations by regime actors. Moderate landscape pressure occurs early in disruptive landscape leading to reorientations by regime actors. Moderate landscape pressure occurs early in disruptive change.landscape Niche change. innovations Niche cannotinnovations take advantage cannot take of landscapeadvantage pressureof landscape on the pressure regime, on because the regime, they are notbecause sufficiently they developedare not sufficiently [36]), reconfiguration developed [36]), (Reconfiguration reconfiguration pathway: (ReconfigurationSymbiotic pathway: innovations, Symbiotic which, developedinnovations, in niches, which, aredeveloped initially in adopted niches, are in theinitially regime adopted to solve in the local regime problems. to solve They local subsequently problems. triggerThey furthersubsequently adjustments trigger in further the basic adjustments architecture in ofthe the basic regime. architecture Radical of innovations the regime. are Radical initially developedinnovations inniches. are initially If they developed have symbiotic in niches. relations If they have with symbiotic the regime, relations they can with be the easily regime, adopted they as add-oncan be or easily component adopted replacement),as add-on or component technological replacement), substitution technological (Technological substitution substitution: (TechnologicalIf there is muchsubstitution: landscape If there pressure is much (“specific landscape shock”, pressure “avalanche (“specific change”, shock”, “disruptive “avalanche change”, change”) “disruptive at a moment whenchange”) niche at innovations a moment havewhendeveloped niche innovations sufficiently, have thedeveloped latter will sufficiently, break through the latter and will replace break the existingthrough regime. and replace This pathway the existing assumes regime. that radicalThis pathway innovations assumes have that developed radical ininnovations niches but remainhave stuckdeveloped because in the niches regime but is remain stable andstuck entrenched. because the This regime diff ersis stable from and the de-alignmententrenched. This and differs re-alignment from path,the wherede-alignment the regime and re-alignment destabilised path, early where in the the process), regime destabilised and de- and early re-alignment in the process), (De-alignment and de- andand re-alignment re-alignment path: (De-alignmentIf landscape and change re-alignment is divergent, path: If landscape large and change sudden is (“avalanchedivergent, large change”), and thensudden increasing (“avalanche regime change”), problems then may increasing cause regime regime actorsproblems to losemay faith.cause Thisregime leads actors to to de-alignment lose faith. andThis erosion leads of to the de-alignment regime. If nicheand erosion innovations of the are regime.not su ffiIf cientlyniche innovations developed, thenare not there sufficiently is no clear substitute.developed, This then creates there space is no for clear the substitute emergence. This of multiple creates nichespace innovationsfor the emergence that co-exist of multiple and competeniche innovations that co-exist and compete for attention and resources. Eventually, one niche innovation for attention and resources. Eventually, one niche innovation becomes dominant, forming the core becomes dominant, forming the core for re-alignment of a new regime) pathways. In summary, the for re-alignment of a new regime) pathways. In summary, the timing of landscape pressure and timing of landscape pressure and niche development determines the type of pathway (Figure 5). niche development determines the type of pathway (Figure5). Wicked problems, as described in Wicked problems, as described in this article, implicitly lead to pathways that suit serious pressure this article, implicitly lead to pathways that suit serious pressure at landscape level. The readiness of at landscape level. The readiness of niche developments then distinguishes the pathway between the nichede- developmentsand re-alignment then and distinguishes (technical) substitution. the pathway The between transformative the de- and development, re-alignment as anddescribed (technical) in substitution.Section 3.1, Theputs transformativeemphasis on the development, hidden novelties as described[30], or B-minuses in Section [31], 3.1 suggesting, puts emphasis that if these on the hiddenhidden novelties novelties [30 can], orbe B-minusesbrought to fruition, [31], suggesting they will thatbe ready if these to break hidden through novelties existing can conventions be brought to fruition,and substitute they will the be current ready toregime. break through existing conventions and substitute the current regime.

FigureFigure 5. 5.Di Differentﬀerent transitiontransition pathways (based (based on on [36]). [36]). 3.3. Collaborative Learning 3.3. Collaborative Learning TheThe fact fact that that these these contradictorycontradictory processes,processes, continuation and and path-dependency path-dependency and and a a transformative,transformative, disruptive disruptive pathway,pathway, meet meet at at a abattl battleﬁeldefield urges urges the the highest highest level level of learning of learning in an in anemergent emergent self-organising self-organising process. process. In Inthis this context, context, it is it simply is simply not notsatisfying satisfying to transfer to transfer information information as as an instructor, to to be be an an expert, expert, or or to to build build skills skills and and competencies competencies focusing focusing on on the the learner learner (Figure (Figure 6).6 ). ShiftingShifting mental mental models models and and knowledgeknowledge creationcreation are needed, which which are are oriented oriented towards towards teams, teams, partnerships,partnerships, and and community community collaboratives collaboratives [[37].37]. World 2020, 1 271

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Mental model shift & knowledge creation

Skill or competentcy y building it ex pl m co f o ee Collaborative technologies gr Learning objectives e D

Interactive technologies Information transfer

Distribution technologies

Instructor/expert Learner centred Team, partnership or centred community centred Delivery approach (adapted from Keith McCandless) FigureFigure 6. Learning 6. Learning at three at three levels levels [37]. [ 37].

TheThe starting starting point point of of Collaborative Collaborative Learning Learning Techno Technologieslogies isis that that all all participants participants together together have have all allthe the relevant relevant knowledge. knowledge. The The distinction distinction between between an an expert expert andand non-expertnon-expert is not relevant and and one one sole soleanswer answer is intrinsically is intrinsically not apparent.not apparent. The knowledgeThe knowledge creating creating process process is a collective, is a collective, self-organizing self- process,organizing in process, which all in thewhich participants all the participants establish establish multiple multiple connections connections and interactions. and interactions. This allows This for allowsnovel inventionsfor novel inventions to appear to in appear the most in naturalthe most way. natural In literature way. In literature this is dubbed this is thirddubbed level third learning level [22], learningalso transformational [22], also transf learning.ormational This learning. environment This ofenvironment collaboration of collaboration is best suited is to best generate suited solutions to generate solutions to wicked problems. By creating a transformation arena where multi-actor to wicked problems. By creating a transformation arena where multi-actor collaboration is stimulated, collaboration is stimulated, breakthrough visions can be developed [38]. The emergence of novel, breakthrough visions can be developed [38]. The emergence of novel, shared visions and unprecedented shared visions and unprecedented mental models will happen in an effective way, acting as novel mental models will happen in an effective way, acting as novel “theories-of-action” [39–41]. “theories-of-action” [39–41]. 3.4. Co-Creative Innovation 3.4. Co-Creative Innovation In the context of rapid change and disruptive futures, many problems are dubbed wicked. In the context of rapid change and disruptive futures, many problems are dubbed wicked. Three Three theoretical concepts have been distinguished as suitable for a creative approach envisioning theoretical concepts have been distinguished as suitable for a creative approach envisioning responses to to unprecedented unprecedented events events and and the the unknown unknown unknowns, unknowns, making making use useof the of insights the insights that that collective participants participants (alias (alias “the “the citizen”) citizen”) and and desi design-ledgn-led approaches approaches (alias (alias “the “the imagination”) imagination”) can can provide. This This way, way, a atransformation transformation to toan an unfores unforeseeneen future future can can be conceived. be conceived. As mentioned As mentioned above, above, the transformation starts starts at at “B-minus”, “B-minus”, in in a aniche niche environment, environment, and and must must use use collaborative collaborative learning learning to tobe readybe ready for thefor “battle”the “battle” (the battlefield,(the battlefield, Figure Figure7) with 7) the with existing the regimeexisting or regime the societal or the establishment. societal Theestablishment. framework The for co-creativeframework innovationfor co-creative is constructed innovation byis connectingconstructed the by threeconnecting bodies the of knowledgethree bodiesto one of whole knowledge (Figure to7 ).one The whole multilevel (Figure 7). perspective, The multilevel depicting perspective, the landscape, depicting regimethe landscape, and niche regimelevels, and is taken niche aslevels, the is basis taken for as the basis framework. for the framework. When this When is combined this is combined with thewith three the three learning learninglevels, instruction, levels, instruction, individual individual learning learning and collaborative and collaborative learning learning the linkages the linkages between between them them become visible.become Atvisible. the landscapeAt the landscape level, all level, three all learning three learning types appear, types fromappear, well-established from well-established instructions, instructions,interactive learning interactive of tutor–studentlearning of tutor–student relationships relationships and team learning.and team Atlearning. regime At level regime the advancedlevel theforms advanced of learning forms are of applicable, learning are while applicable, the niche while level the can niche only belevel supported can only by be collaborative supported by forms collaborativeof learning, because forms of noveltieslearning, because are only novelties invented are when only unprecedented invented when unprecedented interaction can interaction occur between canmultiple occur actors.between The multiple third addition actors. The is thethird principle addition of is transformative the principle of change. transformative All systems change. evolve All and systems evolve and undergo transformation. At first, they are starting off when a niche novelty is undergo transformation. At first, they are starting off when a niche novelty is mature and able to mature and able to replace existing elements at the regime level, becoming the regime itself. As the replace existing elements at the regime level, becoming the regime itself. As the system evolves further system evolves further and turns into an established “landscape”, tensions and cracks in the once and turns into an established “landscape”, tensions and cracks in the once innovative system will occur, innovative system will occur, placing the system at risk of malfunctioning and decline. Before this is placing the system at risk of malfunctioning and decline. Before this is about to happen, the alternative about to happen, the alternative system is getting ready to replace the former. The novelties, or B- World 2020, 1 272

World 2020, 1, FOR PEER REVIEW 9 system is getting ready to replace the former. The novelties, or B-minuses, become attractors for componentsminuses, become of the existing attractors system, for components which make of the the existing jump system, to the newwhich reality. make the In orderjump to to the allow new this to reality. In order to allow this to happen, the conditions at niche level must be created to develop happen, the conditions at niche level must be created to develop novelties and allow these to become novelties and allow these to become mature. Therefore, the cyclic and iterative process of creation is mature.established. Therefore, the cyclic and iterative process of creation is established.

instructor learner team

LANDSCAPEA’ REGIMEBATTLEFIELD A creating value

B- NICHEB- co-creation creative jump

FigureFigure 7.7. Framework for for co-creative co-creative innovation. innovation.

In theIn framework,the framework, there there exists exists a creative a creative jump jumpfrom from system system A, A, on on its its way way to to belonging belonging to to the the regime and/regimeor landscape and/or landscape (in black), (in to black), B-minus to B-minus (in red), (i locatedn red), located in the nichein the environment,niche environment, where where a carousel a of carousel of consecutive learning environments is providing the context for establishing the new ideas consecutive learning environments is providing the context for establishing the new ideas that allow that allow the new system to mature, break through the existing regime, and influence the the new system to mature, break through the existing regime, and influence the overarching landscape. overarching landscape. Here, team learning is imperative to achieving a successful outcome. This Here,transformative team learning carousel is imperative consists of to three achieving interactive a successful components: outcome. This transformative carousel consists of three interactive components: 1. Creative jump: B-minus and breakthrough ideas—the creative jumps must bring together the 1. Creativemost creative jump: minds B-minus who and are experts breakthrough in thinking ideas—the “beyond the creative ordinary”. jumps This must is a necessary bring together step, the mostin order creative to find minds methods who that are are experts not hindered in thinking by the “beyondregular and the well-known ordinary”. solutions This is for a day- necessary step,to-day in order problems. to find This methods initial that step are combines not hindered expert by knowledge, the regular creative and well-known thinking, and solutions the for day-to-daygeneration problems. of novel Thisconcepts initial and step ideas. combines Ideally, expert this process knowledge, is undertaken creative by thinking, a mix of and the professional and local expertise, e.g., academics and citizens alike; generation of novel concepts and ideas. Ideally, this process is undertaken by a mix of professional 2. Co-creation: the visionary citizen—the extraordinary concepts and ideas form the inspiration for anda localco-creative expertise, process. e.g., The academics uniqueness and of citizensconcepts alike;stimulates people to think beyond the normal 2. Co-creation:and collaboratively the visionary find solutions citizen—the that extraordinaryrespond to the conceptswicked problems and ideas of formthe region. the inspiration Out of for a co-creativeeveryone’s process.insights and The understanding, uniqueness of in concepts a transparent stimulates and inviting people toatmosphere, think beyond fluidity the of normal andthinking collaboratively occurs, and find the solutionsparticipants that come respond up with to unexpected the wicked and problems unique outputs; of the region. Out of everyone’s insights and understanding, in a transparent and inviting atmosphere, fluidity of thinking occurs, and the participants come up with unexpected and unique outputs; 3. Creating value: acceptance of breakthrough ideas and implementation—the process of co-creation leads to people being profoundly attached to the ideas and solutions. This causes a strong World 2020, 1 273

World 2020, 1, FOR PEER REVIEW 10 ownership of the conceptual ideas, which will be defended by the group as their individual brainchildren.3. Creating value: Through acceptance this, the of implementation breakthrough ideas of ground-breaking and implementation—the ideas has process created of value co- and will becreation supported leads byto people a growing being network profoundly of people. attached to the ideas and solutions. This causes a strong ownership of the conceptual ideas, which will be defended by the group as their This “carrousel”individual brainchildren. moves between Through the niche this, environment,the implementation where of novelties ground-breaking are invented, ideas andhas the regime level,created aiming value to and break will throughbe supported existing by a growing conventions. network The of people. idea behind the carousel is that it circulates asThis long “carrousel” as necessary moves to between gain power the niche and become environment, strong where enough novelties to stand are ﬁrm invented, on the and battleﬁeld the of change.regime This level, must aiming be seen to break as an thro iterativeugh existing process conventions. in which theThe mutualidea behind cross-fertilisation the carousel is ofthat creative it jumpscirculates and the co-creativeas long as necessary process eventuallyto gain power leads and to become added value,strong whichenough accelerates to stand firm the on uptake the of inventedbattlefield novelties of change. at the This regime must level. be seen as an iterative process in which the mutual cross-fertilisation of creative jumps and the co-creative process eventually leads to added value, which accelerates the 4. Northernuptake of Netherlands’ invented novelties Energy at the Transition regime level.

The4. Northern co-creative Netherlands’ innovation Energy framework Transition is used to identify the recent status of the energy environment, to analyse ambitions for an energy transition, and to understand the potential for a transformationThe co-creative towards innovation a clean andframework local energyis used supply,to identify fully the based recenton status renewable of the energy resources. environment, to analyse ambitions for an energy transition, and to understand the potential for a The northern region of the Netherlands is used as a case study. transformation towards a clean and local energy supply, fully based on renewable resources. The 4.1. Multi-Levelnorthern region Perspective: of the Netherlands Landscape andis used Regime as a case study. The4.1. northernMulti-Level part Perspective: of the NetherlandsLandscape and isRegime prosaically called Energy Valley [42]. Through the ages, it has beenThe an northern energy-generating part of the Netherlands region; first, is asprosai a peatcally harvesting called Energy landscape, Valley [42]. and Through since the the late ages, 1950s, as theit location has been of an natural energy-generating gas exploitation. region; first, as a peat harvesting landscape, and since the late 1950s, Atas the the location landscape of natural level gas (Figure exploitation.8), gas industries, represented by the Gasunie and NAM, have establishedAt the landscape an indispensable level (Figure position 8), gas industries, in the northern represented economic, by the cultural,Gasunie and and NAM, political have elite. The factestablished that natural an indispensable gas was discovered position in inthe 1959 northern gave economic, the region cultural, a crucial and role,political as oneelite. of The the fact major economicthat natural drivers, gas hence was discovered providing in growth1959 gave of the wealth region toa crucial everyone role, as in one the of country. the major Foreconomic 60 years, drivers, hence providing growth of wealth to everyone in the country. For 60 years, the Netherlands the Netherlands became dependent on the abundance of affordable energy. Not only in direct became dependent on the abundance of affordable energy. Not only in direct supply, but also as a supply, but also as a source of economic growth. The Dutch national government uses the profits for source of economic growth. The Dutch national government uses the profits for investments in its investmentseconomy, in itssuch economy, as through such financing as through large financing infrastructure large infrastructure works. This works.also implied This also a strong implied a stronginterconnection interconnection between between public public andand private private interests. interests. The Ministry The Ministry of Economic of Economic Affairs and Affairs the andgas the gas industryindustry partners, partners, Gasunie Gasunie and and NAM NAM (Dutch (Dutch Petrol Petroleumeum Company) Company) became became dependent dependent on each other on each otherfor the the continuation continuation of ofprosperity. prosperity.

System A System B Conclusion Dependency on gas-fuelled Availability of natural gas & power plants OBJECTIVE: exploitation of the gas field Capacity of grid too low for Independent, clean and renewables Dependence on fossil resources local energy supply Established governance of Gasunie, Ministry of Economic Affairs and NAM B Continuation of using IntenseNATURAL linkage between public and GAS fossil resources private A’ Building the gas network and New Energy Coalition Battle, supplying gas NortH2 not (yet) Energy Valley settled ENERGYEnergy Delta GRID Institute Discovery of the A Making City Slochteren gas field Grunneger Power Design Using renewables for Deployment of new B- charette (more than) 100% technologies to exploit, - exportRENEWABLES and deliver gas B INCREASE Groningen Fossil Free Local energy initiatives and Grounds for Change Wooden wind turbines coalitions EPM Blue energy Transformation towards zero carbon system

FigureFigure 8. The 8. The co-creative co-creative innovation innovation framework framework forfor energyenergy transition transition in in northern northern Netherlands. Netherlands.

At the regime level, the entire nation is supplied with a well-operating system of natural gas delivery, reliant and cheap, using a dense and widespread grid. People are accustomed to using gas World 2020, 1 274 for cooking and heating in their households, and the majority of the houses are deliberately designed for this type of energy supply. Looking at the existing system (A), the discovery of the Slochteren gas ﬁeld led to a rise in innovative technologies, necessary for the exploitation, distribution, and export of the fossil resource. The new technologies were used to build the distribution network across the Netherlands, which was also used to transport natural gas to foreign countries. This made the gas industry very powerful, not in the least because the revenues ﬂooded back into the national treasury.

4.2. Transformation and Creative Jump Somewhere along the curve of system A (Figure8), tensions start to increase and the first cautious attempts to make a creative jump could be witnessed in the early 2000s, when the fossil-based industry was confronted with worrying research outcomes on climate change and the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming. This was the moment discussions started about whether the distribution network could be sustained in its current form, and if a transition to an alternative system would be necessary in the near or far future. Global discussions on a transition to a renewable energy future led to research projects such as the Bridging to the Future project, in which sustainable urban system designs [43] were explored. In this case, a combination of dissatisfaction with the existing regime aligned with the awareness of the limits of fossil resources. The global impact of ongoing fossil resource depletion increased attention to alternatives, and in terms of transformation, urged a possible jump from the current system (A) to an alternative system (B), to be made. At first, the general objective to create an independent clean and local energy supply was formulated. However, by itself, this did not lead to a straightforward process of inventing and implementing the new paradigm. Therefore, the counterforces were too strong and the vested interests too important to just switch. However, a cautious shift to a new emerging curve (system B) by experimentation and academic investigation, proved a safe enough platform, far enough from the existing practice, to start exploring what inventions the new system could bring forward. Establishing co-creative environments reinforced an innovative context, required to develop ideas that are far enough from existing practice, hence could function as B-minuses for a desired system. The clearest manifestation of enabling a creative jump is the creation of a subsequent meeting series under the acronym INCREASE (INternational Conference on Renewable Energy Approaches for the Spatial Environment) [44,45]. In this context, international experts were brought together in a design-led process to create innovative and break-through concepts for a long-term feasible and sustainable energy system. The multidisciplinary group consisted of regional policy makers, energy engineers, data scientists, architectural and landscape designers, academics, energy strategists, energy market economists, entrepreneurs, lifehackers, and sustainability experts. The task for the group was to design a region without using fossil resources for its energy provision, nor importing any energy from outside the area [45]. In order to create an atmosphere of free-thinking, being out of the daily routines and context, and for the participants to be really committed, these meetings were organised in Jordan and China, respectively. An additional advantage was being able to support the local participants with innovative concepts for zero-carbon regional development. The meetings were designed to stimulate discussion and allow for reflection and feedback, while eluding to unusual solutions and remaining iterative. A constant flickering between spatial scales, technical analyses, and design provided an inspirational and lively context for extraordinary outcomes. While designing, preliminary results were computed, and provided the input for new design iterations. Whole-system thinking iterated with detailed analysis of thematic and component aspects related to the energy and food systems. The expectations were set high and needed to result in a concluding presentation for decision-makers and key persons. The INCREASE meeting series led to the design of a so-called Groningen Fast Forward (Figure9), a spatial design in which the entire provincial area of Groningen could generate its own energy and food. World 2020, 1 275

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FigureFigure 9.9. Groningen Fast Forward [[46].46].

InIn thethe conceptual design,design, thethe provincial areaarea isis transformed intointo an energy- and food-generating area,area, providingproviding allall basicbasic needsneeds forfor itsits population.population. ItIt includesincludes speciﬁcspecific objectivesobjectives forfor didifferentﬀerent parts:parts:

- The peat peat colonies colonies transform transform into into energy energy factories. factories. In PV In (photovoltaic)-coated PV (photovoltaic)-coated glasshouses, glasshouses, most mostof the of food the foodand organics and organics are grown are grown and andenergy energy is generated. is generated. The The wind-turbines wind-turbines are are spread spread in inbetween between the the greenhouses. greenhouses. Waste Waste heat heat is stored is stored an andd reused reused locally locally in ina closed a closed loop loop system; system; - Biofuels are produced usingusing algaealgae technologytechnology inin thethe northeast;northeast; - The processingprocessing ofof food,food, biomass, biomass, bio-fuels, bio-fuels, organic organic waste, waste, and and waste waste water water is implemented is implemented in the in “Greenthe “Green Industrial Industrial Heart”, Heart”, fully fully bio-based; bio-based; - The potential for wind energy and geothermal heat in the northern part of the area is high. Additionally, tidal and osmosis power-plants find find a natural habitat in this part of the design. Shrimp farms and other uses requiring heatheat benefitbenefit fromfrom thethe abundanceabundance ofof geothermalgeothermal sources;sources; - The salinity in the coastal zone provides the conditions to introduce saline agriculture for local - The salinity in the coastal zone provides the conditions to introduce saline agriculture for local food production; food production; - The areas marked with a “?” represent redundant space which can be used when needed for - The areas marked with a “?” represent redundant space which can be used when needed for different purposes according to new future circumstances, for instance for nature reserves, to different purposes according to new future circumstances, for instance for nature reserves, capture surpluses of rainwater, or to store flood water temporarily. to capture surpluses of rainwater, or to store flood water temporarily. The potential benefits of the proposed design are calculated for 2050. An estimated 76 PJ/year of The potential benefits of the proposed design are calculated for 2050. An estimated 76 PJ/year of energy can be provided by creating a cascade of heat, electricity and fuel [47]. It can be concluded energy can be provided by creating a cascade of heat, electricity and fuel [47]. It can be concluded that approximately 42% of the energy demand can be locally generated using the available renewable that approximately 42% of the energy demand can be locally generated using the available renewable energy sources. On top of a predicted 50% reduction in future energy demand (e.g., 90PJ), a further energy sources. On top of a predicted 50% reduction in future energy demand (e.g., 90PJ), a further reduction to 70PJ in 2050 is possible. The Groningen Fast Forward plan, implementing the additional reduction to 70PJ in 2050 is possible. The Groningen Fast Forward plan, implementing the additional innovations as described above, can supply 90-113PJ [46], hence generating a surplus. Basing the innovations as described above, can supply 90-113PJ [46], hence generating a surplus. Basing the energy system on the readily available renewable sources, the reduction in CO2 emissions for the Groningen region is calculated at 72%, avoiding 7190 kton CO2/year. Realising a fossil-free future increases this percentage by definition to 100%. World 2020, 1 276

energy system on the readily available renewable sources, the reduction in CO2 emissions for the Groningen region is calculated at 72%, avoiding 7190 kton CO2/year. Realising a fossil-free future increases this percentage by deﬁnition to 100%. The Groningen Fast Forward design illustrates the possibility to realise an energy system innovation that can supply the region with energy without making use of any fossil resource. Additionally, it is capable of producing substantially more food than is demanded. This surplus can be shared with people in other areas that have to live with food shortages. This INCREASE collaborative can be seen as one of the outstanding initiatives of the broader innovation climate in the northern part of the Netherlands. Amongst others, several creative jumps can be distinguished:

- Blue energy, generating electricity using osmosis technology [48,49], research conducted at the Wetsus institute (https://www.wetsus.nl/research-themes/blue-energy/); - Design and local production of small-scale wooden wind turbines ﬁtting in the spacious northern landscapes (https://www.eazwind.com/nl/).

4.3. Co-Creative Learning Environments As part of the Bridging to the Future project, instigated by the International Gas Union (IGU), a design process called Grounds for Change [50] was organised with collaborating teams from Japan, Canada, India, China, and the Netherlands. The Dutch Gasunie, as the next chair of the IGU conference in 2006, asked the design teams to develop future visions for a climate neutral energy supply for their regions. In the Dutch context, the team investigated the potential to supply the entire northern region with renewable resources and transform the land use accordingly. Part of the design process was a series of design charrettes with participants from the international teams, energy and design students from Groningen and Wageningen Universities, regional NGOs, policy makers, academics, and professional experts. Within the design charrettes, the conditions for collaborative learning were established: participants worked towards an innovative and shared vision, everyone was heard and valued, a mix of people participated, large, small, and individual work methods were applied, there was ample time for reflection, the ideas and output were systematically collected, and the process was smoothly organised. This led to creative, inspiring interactions, participants who were proud of the final results and defended the outcomes to others, and a final presentation to the responsible decision makers from Gasunie as well as regional governments. The atmosphere created illustrates that the attention given to designing the process is equally as important as the design outcomes themselves. Even the smallest details are relevant to involving citizens and non-professionals in a genuine way [51]. This design charrette process resulted in a vision on the future energy supply of the northern region. The spatial vision on future land-use found its base in the regional landscape, climatic, topographic, and geographic characteristics depicting the local renewable energy potentials. Energy Potential Mapping (EPM) charted the regional energy potentials for harvesting wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal energy, and biomass [52–54]. By overlaying these “energy potential maps”, the energy-mix map could be derived (Figure 10). The most suitable land-use for different areas can be depicted by area-specific renewable energy potentials. Potential-driven implies that the available amounts of renewable energy of different types determine the applicable land-uses, instead of the other way around, namely, the urban uses demand the amount of energy to be delivered no matter which natural resources are available. World 2020, 1 277

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Figure 10. Energy Potential Mapping (EPM) map of overlaid renewable resources [54,55]. Figure 10. Energy Potential Mapping (EPM) map of overlaid renewable resources [54,55]. Figure 10. Energy Potential Mapping (EPM) map of overlaid renewable resources [54,55]. Finally, the design of a spatial vision for the region (Figure 11), depicting spatial interventions Finally, the design of a spatial vision for the region (Figure 11), depicting spatial interventions that that were deemed most urgent and effective, established an independent clean and local energy were deemedFinally, most the design urgent of and a spatial eﬀective, vision established for the region an independent (Figure 11), clean depicting and localspatial energy interventions supply for thatsupply were for deemed the northern most regionurgent in and the effective,Netherlands. established an independent clean and local energy the northern region in the Netherlands. supply for the northern region in the Netherlands.

Figure 11. Regional vision based on EPM [56].

4.4. Value Creation FigureFigure 11. 11.Regional Regional visionvision based on on EPM EPM [56]. [56]. The existence of natural gas in the northern region has led to not only material wealth but also 4.4.4.4. Valueto Value the Creation establishment Creation of an innovation cluster, investigating and inventing technological solutions for the energy system and its logistics. It also bolstered academic research in the field. The foundation of TheEnergyThe existence existence Valley ofin of natural2003 natural as a gas gasconceptual in in the the northernnorthern umbrella regionregion for regional has led led economic, to to not not only only technological, material material wealth wealth and socialbut but also also to theto developmentthe establishment establishment in the of of annorth an innovation innovation of the Netherlands cluster, cluster, investigatingin canvestigating be seen as and smart inventing inventing marketing, technological technological but it also solutionsproved solutions its for for thethe energyrelevance energy system system and raised and and its awarenessits logistics. logistics. and It also alsopride bolstered bolstered in the region. academic academic Soon research after, research the in Energy the in the field. Delta ﬁeld. The Institute Thefoundation foundation was of of Energyfounded, Valley aiming in 2003to transfer as a conceptualknowledgeconceptual toumbrella umbrella other comparable fo forr regional regional regions economic, economic, around thetechnological, technological, world. These and formed and social social developmentdevelopmentthe fertile incontext in the the north innorth which of of the thethe Netherlands GroundsNetherlands for Chan cancan ge be design seen as process smart smart marketing,and marketing, INCREASE but but itcould italso also flourish.proved proved its its relevance and raised awareness and pride in the region. Soon after, the Energy Delta Institute was relevanceThese andcreative raised processes awareness brought and pridea reciprocal in the va region.lue to Soonthe region, after, theenhancing Energy the Delta appetite Institute for was founded,innovative aiming spatial to transferthinking knowledge about the ener to othergy transition comparable in the regions northern around provinces. the world. These formed founded, aiming to transfer knowledge to other comparable regions around the world. These formed the fertile context in which the Grounds for Change design process and INCREASE could flourish. the fertile context in which the Grounds for Change design process and INCREASE could ﬂourish. These creative processes brought a reciprocal value to the region, enhancing the appetite for These creative processes brought a reciprocal value to the region, enhancing the appetite for innovative innovative spatial thinking about the energy transition in the northern provinces. spatial thinking about the energy transition in the northern provinces. World 2020, 1 278

As a result of these examples, the mindset in the north changed considerably. This can still be witnessed today. It co-caused an acceleration in the implementation of initiatives which contribute to renewable energy system innovations. The New Energy Coalition emerged as a merger of Energy Valley and the Energy Delta Institute, and new innovative projects were ignited such as NortH2, a collaborative initiative of Gasunie, Groningen Seaports, and Shell, establishing Europe’s largest green hydrogen project using renewable electricity generated by a mega offshore wind farm. Besides large-scale projects such as this one, there were a range of local initiatives, such as Grunneger Power and several others [57,58]. Moreover, the region has attracted considerable funding for a range of research projects, such as taking a leading role in the H2020 project, Making City, which aims to investigate and implement net positive energy districts in urban precincts (www.makingcity.eu). Additionally, the universities in Groningen have established a series of Bachelor, Masters and Doctoral programs in the field of sustainable energy. A specific Master study, Energy4Society (https://www.hanze.nl/eng/ education/engineering/school-of-engineering/programmes/master/energy-for-society) at the Hanze University of Applied Sciences, explores the impact of energy transformation for societal, economic, and technological systems. These examples illustrate only a few highlights of the impact that two decades of thinking about the integration of energy, technology, society, and spatial planning has had. The focus in the region is continual and will not easily disappear. This means a long-term value creation has been established from the early 2000s onwards. However, transformation towards an entirely new system (B) is still not secured.

5. Reﬂective Contemplation Upon taking the lead in establishing novel planning approaches, these kindled a movement in Energy Valley, the north of the Netherlands. The conversations with stakeholders that were involved in the initial stages of project development, planning and policymaking, nationally and internationally, in hindsight the abovementioned projects and processes have led to breakthroughs. They have disrupted mainstream thinking, which, in the early 2000s, emphasised a continuation of the existing fossil-based energy supply. The conversations and interviews have highlighted a range of impactful outcomes, which can be divided into four categories, each of which gained momentum and created value for the inhabitants of the region, the academic knowledge base, the attractiveness of the region for Dutch and foreign companies, residents and students alike. The following added-value categories have been identiﬁed:

1. A novel mind-set. The fact that spatial planning was approached by analysing and mapping the renewable energy potentials instead of the other way around created a novel mindset for decision-makers, the research community and the residents of the northern provinces. Where a certain type of renewable energy source is available determined the land-use and urban development principles. Additionally, an ongoing effort is carried out in research and education to put energy transition at the heart of academia, such as is illustrated by the recent development of the new Master Energy4Society, but also the fact a range of international research funding is attracted to the region. The Horizon 2020 project Making City is a recent example of the attractiveness and thorough opposition of the region in the international scientific community. Finally, the emergence of local initiatives to collaborate and organise themselves with the objective to collectively generate non-fossil energy is illustrative for the novel mind-set in the region. Initiatives such as Grunneger Power and several others underpin this. 2. Novel concepts. During the first energy and spatial planning processes, new concepts have been developed to respond to the pressing problems of that time. The question of how to find an answer to supply energy without using fossil resources has led to a pressure cooker context for finding these novel ways of thinking. The Energy Potential Mapping was developed as a methodology in the context of the Grounds for Change project and has since been used and improved within World 2020, 1 279

the northern region as well as in other projects and plans across the Netherlands. The creative approaches of convening design charrettes and organizing international think-tank workshops, which not only brought the best international expertise together with local knowledge but also provided the context for creativity and out-of-the-box thinking that brought about the ideas and novel concepts. The design-led approach has since been applied to other topics, such as climate adaptation, landscape ecology, urban development, sustainable building and recreation and tourism, in many diﬀerent places across the globe. Finally, innovative thinking in new conceptual directions has seen the emergence of the Green Hydrogen economy in the NortH2-consortium, aiming to transform the northern energy system towards a clean and high-tech future. 3. Novel initiatives. In the early stages of the process organisational entities have been established, such as the regional branding as “Energy Valley” and the supportive research and Development institute called EDI (Energy Delta Institute). These institutional initiatives have led to broadening of the knowledge base and coherence in the research pathways. Recently this has been strengthened by the launch of the New Energy Coalition, in which research institutions, such as the University Groningen and the Hanze University of Applied Sciences, collaborate with the northern municipalities and governmental bodies and a range of industries across the region. 4. Novel products. A range of new products have been developed in the north, made possible by the climate of experimentation, innovation and investigation. This innovation cluster is supported by investments in research, prototyping and developing proofs of concept, so individual enterprises and companies are able to experiment without being afraid of immediate bankruptcy. Several initiatives, inventions and discoveries have been made possible in this context: the reversed osmosis program to generate electricity from bringing fresh and saltwater together (e.g., Blue energy, Wetsus), the design and construction of wooden wind turbines build with local materials and ﬁtting in the spatial context of the north, or the novel ways of implementing solar parks in the landscape and on lakes and ponds.

The energy transformation movement, which ignited in the early 2000s, is still moving forward and cannot be stopped. It is expanding its inﬂuence on daily life, ground-breaking research innovations, attracting students, researchers and research funding, residents and companies, and providing Energy Valley with a brand that will not be wiped out. The process of transformation in the north of the Netherlands has brought about serious novel value, and this process is ongoing.

6. Conclusions In this article, the ways to increase the chance at implementing a highly necessary energy transition is presented as a transformative way of jumping oﬀ the current system to ignite the emergence of a new cycle, by establishing creative collaborative learning environments. Several conclusions can be drawn. The innovative regional spatial visions, the method of Energy Potential Mapping, linkages between energy technologies, social innovation, and spatial design show that transformative ideas have been conceived in the innovation environment in the north of the Netherlands. This is exempliﬁed by the Groningen Fast Forward project and the fact that many of the initial ideas and concepts have turned into products, such as blue energy and the wooden wind turbines. Currently, this line of innovative thinking continues with the creation of environments that generate more energy using renewable resources than they use, as investigated in the Making City project. These innovations can only happen when people themselves are given the opportunity to become visionaries. The role of creating collaborative learning environments, such as in design charrettes, allows people to self-organise the collaboration such that novel concepts will emerge. Most recently within the Making City projects, local residents are involved in becoming visionaries by establishing so-called enabling ecosystems [59] in which the social construct enables them to self-organise and form a strong and lasting network for innovations. World 2020, 1 280

The transformation towards a new cycle starts by searching for the B-minuses in those niche environments where creation of novelties can take place and collaborative learning is possible. In combination, these form the optimal cocktail for reaching a desired future. Still, the battle is ongoing. Established networks of the politically responsible decision-makers in industry, the grid administrators, the energy providers, and companies send out a coherent message that society is still dependent on fossil resources to supply energy in a secure way. On the other hand, individuals, local initiatives, and renewable energy coalitions and alliances prove that a reliant supply of renewable energy for household, street, precinct, and city-region is possible, making the point that striving for a net zero-carbon future is achievable and should be pursued. To achieve the best results, the principle of self-organising should be applied both at the process and organising level, as well as to the invention of new content. Therefore, the goal of ﬁnding solutions that are self-organising, increase the adaptive capacity, and are capable of adjusting to the future is best achieved in a self-organising process, which allows for the emergence of joint ideas and the invention of novel concepts. This adventurous pathway in itself requires backing by the decision-makers, who must acknowledge the sense of urgency. During the process, gaining support is a continuous concern, aligning the innovations that might lead to breakthroughs with the decision-making reality. The carousel of the creative jump, co-creation, and creating value can (or should) happen in any particular order, its components occurring simultaneously. It does not start at one point followed by the logical next, but can start at any place, any time, and can occur simultaneously in multiple environments. The urgency for a fast forward energy transition is clear, however, a transformation to achieve this is still very much needed.

Funding: This research received no external funding. Conﬂicts of Interest: The authors declare no conﬂict of interest.

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