ARMED VIOLENCE ASSESSMENT Issue Brief Number 2 May 2013 Legacies of War in the Company of Peace in Nepal

Introduction re-establish political stability and cope Private firearms in Nepal are esti- with post-conflict violence. mated to number 440,000. Roughly When Nepal’s civil war ended in 2006, Responses to armed violence have one-eighth (55,000) are believed to the country had changed fundamen- not been based on clear information be legally registered. tally. Legacies of the war included the about the scale or distribution of weap- Most privately owned firearms are end of the monarchy and the accom- ons in the country. It is not clear what unregistered craft weapons, referred modation of Maoist rebels (Unified kinds of firearms are in Nepal or where to as country-made or katuwas. Communist Party of Nepal–Maoist, they are concentrated. There are estimated to be roughly UCPN-M), who were integrated into the This Issue Brief applies published 330,000 of these. government. A total of 1,462 Maoists reports and data, as well as estimation Despite a decade of warfare, pri- (including 71 officers) were selected techniques, to explore the scale and vate ownership remains for integration into the Nepal Army distribution of firearm ownership in low by global standards. The rate (Pun, 2012). Like many post-conflict post-conflict Nepal. Its major findings amounts to approximately 1.7 fire- societies, Nepal is struggling to include: arms for every 100 residents.

Maoist fighters with SAR at a function to hand over command to the government at the Shaktikhor Maoist cantonment in Chitwan, south-west of Kathmandu, January 2011. © Gemunu Amarasinghe/Associated Press

www.nepal-ava.org 1 Figure 1 Estimated distribution of firearms in about Nepal’s illegal small arms other countries (Karp, 2007b). Instead, Nepal, 2012 trade. the portrait of ownership assembled In 2003, a total of 56,357 antique or in this Issue Brief is based on various obsolescent Nepalese military small types of evidence, including registra- arms and light weapons were sold tion figures, police confiscations, and to an American dealer. The arsenal public surveys. sold provides a unique record of military modernization and insight Registration into the proportion of older weap- Firearms registration is the most reli- Civilian-owned firearms ons in a contemporary arsenal. Nepal Army able source of information on private Law enforcement agencies This Issue Brief examines three main ownership of weapons in Nepal. Maoist (UCPN-M) categories of Nepal firearm owners: According to media reports, there are civilians, state security services, and 34,468 licensed owners in the country Public surveys confirm that private former guerrillas. It concludes that (Sharma, 2012). They reportedly own firearms are neither commonplace approximately 710,000 firearms are in some 55,000 legally registered small in Nepal nor rare. the country (see Figure 1 and Table 1). arms, for an average of 1.6 legally The Nepal Army has about 160,000 Civilians own two-thirds of firearms, declared firearms per owner (Racovita, small arms, and law enforcement mostly primitive craft guns. By compari- Murray, and Sharma, 2012, pp. 57–59; agencies have roughly another República, 2009). 74,000. son, the Army and law enforcement Obtaining a gun licence is not easy When the peace agreement was agencies emerged from the civil war in Nepal, and measures introduced signed in 2006, Maoist People’s with greatly expanded personnel and since democratization in 1990 have Liberation Army had an estimated modernized weaponry. made it more difficult. Under the 9,500 small arms and light weapons. Arms and Ammunition Act of 1963, Of these, 3,475 were handed over. applications must be approved by the Some 6,000 small arms probably Private owners Home Ministry and the applicant’s remain with former guerrillas. No previous systematic studies or ex- Chief District Officer (Nepal, 1963; According to UN Comtrade, the pert estimates of total private firearm Kharel and Shrestha, 2010). No hand- was the principal ownership in Nepal were found in the gun licences are reported to have been exporter of legal firearms to Nepal research conducted for this report. The issued since 1990 and the basic licence in the last two decades. Weaknesses only country estimate published to date fee was increased in 2010 to NPR 10,000 in data mean that little is known is based on statistical comparison with (USD 140) (Kharel and Shrestha, 2010), further restricting legal ownership. The Table 1 Estimated distribution of firearms in Nepal, 2012 cost and complexity of the licensing Population Category Ratio of Estimated Total system make it difficult, if not impos- firearms to firearms firearms sible, to legally possess craft (country- population made) firearms, thought to be the most Private residents Private registered, factory-made 55,000 numerous. The police are authorized 26,600,000 Private unregistered, factory-made 55,000 to confiscate such firearms on sight Private craft-made (country-made) 330,000 (Nepal, 1963, s. 12; Sharma, 2012). All privately owned firearms 0.017 440,000

Nepal Army Nepal Army 1.7 160,000 160,000 Unregistered ownership 95,000 The expense and difficulty of acquiring Law enforcement Nepal Police 1.0 47,000 a licence drives people who want fire- 47,000 arms, especially , to seek them 31,000 Armed Police Force 1.8 56,000 illegally. Unregistered factory-made All law enforcement agencies 103,000 firearms include guns illegally imported Maoist UCPN-M 0.6 6,000 6,000 from and , weapons stolen 9,500 from the Nepalese security services, and Total 709,000 some former Maoist guerrilla weapons (see Map). It remains difficult to assess Note: Estimates and totals are rounded to two significant digits. The Maoist total is lowered by the transfer of 3,475 weapons to Army control in 2012. Ratios are calculated on population statistics sources from CBS (2001). how many factory-made weapons are Sources: For sources on private firearms, see pp. 3–5; on Nepal Army, p. 7; on Nepal Police and Armed Police, pp. 8–9; and on Maoist firearms, p. 10. privately owned, however, because

2 Nepal Issue Brief Number 2 May 2013 Illegal arms market Kathmandu Valley Illegal arms point of origin Nagarkot Entry point for small arms Kathmandu trafficking Bhaktapur Sudal ThankotThankot Trafficking route, 2012 Kirtipur Patan Trafficking route, 2005 Sangabhanjyang H Luvu International boundary I National capital M DakshinkaliDakshin Chapagaon Banbasa A Lele L AnnAnnapurnaapurna A CHINAC HINA (8,091 m) Y A TIBETTIBE T Mt EEverest verest (8,848 m)

Kanchenjunga Kathmandu (8,586 m) UTTAR PRADESH

Raxaul Lucknow INDIA Kanpur Mujjafarpur Jogbani Map of the major routes of illegal firearms into Nepal BIHAR 0 km 100

Note: Illegal arms points of origin are cities and villages that host ad-hoc manufacturing and small arms storage facilities, reported as sources of illegal arms in circulation. Source: Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013, p. 60) licence and registration figures are far industry that fabricates black-market firearms, including illicitly owned guns, from comprehensive and police con- handguns in the adjacent Indian states both factory- and country-made. fiscation data and public polling do of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (RAOnline, not provide an exact basis of calcula- n.d.; Racovita, Murray, and Sharma, Police seizures and country- tion. This said, illegal owner- 2012, p. 64). The predominance of made firearms ship does not seem to be exceptional country-made firearms is suggested Police reports of seizures of illicitly (Sharma, 2012). For this Issue Brief, the by a survey that found the majority owned firearms and firearms used in number of unregistered factory-made of guns in private ownership to be crimes show a three-to-one ratio of firearms is assumed to equal the number very cheap, costing NPR 1,000–10,000 country-made craft guns to factory- that are legally owned. On this assump- (USD 14–140) (Hazen et al., 2011, p. 27). made firearms. A 2011 police report tion, a total of approximately 110,000 Post-conflict dynamics seen else- registered and unregistered factory- where in the world also appear to have made handguns, rifles, and affected Nepalese gun culture and Table 2 Handguns seized by Nepal Police, July 2006–November 20101 are privately owned. crime. No comprehensive estimate is In Nepal, however, factory-made available of the gun ownership before Type Total firearms probably represent a small the country’s civil war started in 1996, seized proportion of privately owned guns. but analysts agree that the conflict Country-made handguns (katuwas) 458 Given their price and the cost and dif- created new norms and expectations. Factory-made handguns 139 ficulty of registration, there appears Private ownership, including that of to be a widespread demand for the country-made weapons, increased Factory-made by type cheaper craft handguns or katuwas and (IRIN, 2012). Sources that provided 7.65 mm pistols 5 improvised rifles,bharuwas (RAOnline, weapons to Maoist guerrillas before 9 mm pistols 25 n.d.). Craft guns typically are very 2006 now supply them to violent crim- Sixer pistols 28 simple, usually single-shot handguns inal groups (Rauniyar, 2011). Given fashioned from scrap metal, and are the simplicity of craft weapons, it is Indian pistol 1 much less accurate and reliable than very likely that some are produced Revolvers (type unknown) 37 factory-made firearms (Modi, Nigam, locally in Nepal too. Italian pistols 13 and Kumar, 1984). Police seizure data and household One source of supply is the well- surveys offer quantitative insights into US pistols 30 established—yet completely illegal— the distribution of privately owned Source: Fuyal, n.d.

www.nepal-ava.org 3 states that 597 handguns were seized able responses. One survey specifi- illegal firearms. It found that ‘62 per in the previous four years, of which cally reported that ‘although people cent of the respondents said less than 458 were country-made and the do own arms at home for protection, 10 per cent of the residents of those remainder factory-made (see Table 2). no one reveals that they have arms’ areas (surveyed) possess small arms, In the most recent four-year period, and that ‘even those respondents who 24 per cent of the respondents said ten police reported seizing 261 factory- admitted to having a firearm in the to twenty per cent of the dwellers have made pistols and revolvers, and 716 household were reluctant to provide such arms and 15 per cent of respond- country-made guns—a similar ratio additional details about the firearms’ ents said more than 20 per cent of the of 1 to 2.7 (Kharel, 2012). (Hazen et al., 2011, pp. 41, 27). residents had small arms’ (Shrestha, How meaningful is this three-to- Although surveys of gun ownership 2006, p. 81). The survey appears to be one distribution? Because virtually all may not be wholly reliable, they are informal and lacking a scientifically katuwas are illegal and factory-made uniquely comprehensive and limited selected sample. Its findings should be guns are more likely to be legally mostly by the nature of the questions regarded as suggestive, but not neces- registered, the seizure rate may not and the sample of respondents. Five sarily reproducible. accurately reflect distribution. In the surveys have recently investigated fire- Two more systematic surveys, spon- absence of further data, however, this arm ownership. All were undertaken sored by the London-based NGO, report assumes that the ratio of katuwas by NGOs investigating broader aspects Saferworld, each involved some 3,000 to factory-made guns is three-to-one, of post-conflict armed violence and respondents from across Nepal. They based on police seizure data. On that conflict resolution. None are fully com- found that 84 to 92 per cent of respond- basis, if Nepalese civilians own some parable; they asked different questions, ents had never see anyone, other than 110,000 factory-made firearms, approxi- employed different sampling methods, police and soldiers, carrying guns. One mately 330,000 country-made guns also and targeted different regions. survey found significant regional var- exist among private owners. The surveys reviewed here show iation, however. Firearms sightings were that firearm ownership is not common- most common in the Terai (lowlands) Household surveys place in Nepal; most respondents and least common in mountainous Asking people about their gun owner- reported that ownership is unusual. regions (Gordon et al., 2010, p. 29). ship poses certain difficulties. Especially One survey by a domestic NGO, Friends Of the respondents, 96 per cent said in a country emerging from a decade for Peace, polled residents in regions that they did not possess a small arm. of warfare, questions on the subject can along Nepal–India border regions Among respondents who said that be sensitive and generate unpredict- believed to serve as transit routes for they did, roughly half (nine out of 19)

Nepal Army soldiers with Sten guns, an older type of sub-, confront demonstrators in Kathmandu, April 2006. © Danish Ismail/Reuters

4 Nepal Issue Brief Number 2 May 2013 said they possessed a licence (Gordon Total firearms in private possession approximately 172,000 small arms et al., 2010, p. 30). (Small Arms Survey, 2006, p. 51).2 This This Issue Brief estimates that a total Another survey of 2,000 respond- ratio would make it possible to equip of 440,000 weapons are owned by ents, sponsored by Saferworld and the every soldier with a and allow a civilians in Nepal, an average of 1.7 Small Arms Survey, focused exclusively normal supplementary distribution firearms for every 100 residents. Of on the Terai, the southern lowland of pistols, light and medium machine this number, appoximately one in eight region that is home to about half the guns, and other small arms. The esti- (55,000) is believed to be legally regis- country’s population. Terai is widely mate does not include light weapons, tered. Of the remainder, roughly 330,000 believed to have the country’s worst such as heavy machine guns, mortars, are estimated to be unregistered craft small arms and violence problems. The and launchers, which are more weapons. This total is higher than a survey found: ‘Less than two percent difficult to estimate. previous country estimate by the Small of respondents reported that someone A questionable and exaggerated Arms Survey which suggested, on the in their household possessed a fire- assessment of the number of small basis of statistical correlation, that the arm. Thus out of 2,000 respondents, arms held by the Nepalese military is Nepalese owned 205,000 small arms only 31 people reported having fire- presented in a Wikipedia report that (Karp, 2007b). Even the higher rate, arms in the household’ (Hazen et al., suggests the Nepal Army controls however, is low by global standards 240,000 firearms (Wikipedia, n.d.). 2011, pp. 25–26). In response to a ques- (Karp, 2007a). This figure includes large numbers of tion about household security, six per weapons that do not appear to be cent of respondents said they kept widely issued by the Nepal Army, firearms at home (Hazen et al., 2011, The Nepal Army such as Kalashnikov rifles, and over- p. 53). This survey, which suggests To date, the Nepal Army has not made estimates certain other weapons. For that firearms are neither ubiquitous public its inventory of small arms. The example, it lists 40,000 INSAS rifles, nor absent, offers the strongest basis basis for estimation is the number of compared to the 23,000 that are reported for extrapolation (Hazen et al., 2011, uniformed personnel, which was 95,753 elsewhere to have been transferred by p. x). Its findings are consistent with in 2012 (IISS, 2012, p. 269). Applying India (Asia News Agency, 2005). the estimate in this Issue Brief that there the norm of 1.8 weapons per soldier Cautious accounting—based on are approximately 1.7 firearms per100 in a constabulary (internal security) known totals of major weapon types people in Nepal. army, like Nepal’s, one would expect and purchases and taking account of The most recent survey, sponsored the Nepal Army to have a total of the Army’s minimum requirements— by Interdisciplinary Analysts and the Small Arms Survey, surveyed a national sample of 3,048 respondents (Racovita, Table 3 Major small arms of the Nepal Army, 2012 Murray, and Sharma, 2012, pp. 13, 59). Weapon Type Supplier Total Sources Its findings were similar. More than M4 Automatic United States 1,070 MoD (2011); Watters (2012d) 1.3 per cent of respondents reported that they owned a firearm. The rate AKM (Type 56) Automatic rifle China 300 MoD (2011) varied from region to region. When AR15/M16 Automatic rifle United States 2,000 MoD (2011) asked to estimate ownership in their Galil Automatic rifle Israel 2,000 MoD (2011) region, respondents suggested that weapons were owned by 2.1 per cent INSAS Automatic rifle India 23,000 Asia News Agency (2005) of people in Hill districts and 5.3 per M16A2/A4 Automatic rifle United States 15,000 Watters (2012a, 2012b, 2012c) cent in Terai. Lee-Enfield Bolt- rifle UK or India 30,000 Walter (2005, pp. 94–95) Read together, these surveys show Bren L4 200 Ezell (1988, p. 274) that a small but not negligible propor- tion of the country’s population pos- M249 Light machine gun United States 300 MoD (2011) sesses guns. Their findings provide FN Minimi Belgium 5,500 Crivellaro (2002) an alternative basis for estimating the 9 mm FN or HP Semi-automatic pistol India 15,000 Ezell (1988, p. 274) level of private gun ownership. As is often the case, surveys produce a lower SAR (FAL or L1A1) Semi-automatic rifle India 30,000 Eger (2006); Ezell (1988, p. 274) estimate than other techniques. Their MSG90 Germany 100 MoD (2011) findings are nevertheless generally con- Sterling Sub-machine gun 25,000 MoD (2011) sistent with the estimates that emerge from extrapolations based on registra- MP-5 Sub-machine gun Germany 200 MoD (2011) tion and police confiscation data. Note: Totals in italics are estimates by the author. Totals are not intended to include decommissioned weapons or weapons transferred to other government agencies.

www.nepal-ava.org 5 suggests that the Nepal Army is likely available about Army inventories. counter-insurgency and counter- to control some 160,000 firearms, slightly They included a major contract with terrorist operations. Information on fewer than might normally be expected. India for 23,000 INSAS rifles, purchased the personnel and armament of the Most of these weapons are rifles (see with the aid of a 70 per cent subsidy Armed Police Force (APF) is poor, and Table 3). The inventory includes large from New Delhi (Asia News Agency, much reporting is speculative. The IISS numbers of older weapons whose sta- 2005; PTI, 2005; Sharma, 2009). The suggests that the APF has 15,000 per- tus is not known, such as Lee-Enfield Army also received M16 rifles and sonnel, but this number may be out of bolt-action rifles and Sterling sub- M4 from the United States.3 date (IISS, 2012, p. 270). An internal machine guns, probably procured in Because of the war, these deals were report by the People’s Armed Police the 1960s and 1970s from India, and highly controversial for some sellers. (PAP) suggests that the APF has a Indian-made versions of the Belgian The United States suspended but later complement of 31,000 officers and FAL semi-automatic rifle (the SAR), resumed transfers of M16s (Yogi, 2005). constables (PAP, n.d.).5 Based on the probably acquired in the 1970s or 1980s. In 2002, the Belgian government normal ratio of 1.8 firearms for every The estimate of older weapons in resisted pressure from domestic arms member of a paramilitary or gen- Table 3 is based on the Army’s highest sale oponents to reverse a sale of light darme force, an APF force of 31,000 personnel figure before the civil war machine guns (Crivellaro, 2002). would have some 56,000 firearms started in 1996. This figure of 30,000 Virtually all Nepal Army small (Karp, 2006, p. 51). was reached in 1986 (IISS, 1986, p. 164). arms acquisitions have generated Superseded by modern equipment controversy on economic, political, or acquired after 2000, the Nepal Army’s human rights grounds. Those contracts Armed groups older weapons are probably held in that were not contested by suppliers It is especially difficult to estimate reserve or may have been decommis- seem to have aroused resentment within how many small arms are in the pos- sioned or transferred to other govern- Nepal. The Nepalese military expressed session of Nepal’s numerous armed ment agencies, including the police. It unhappiness with the fragility and un- groups. Highly diverse, these groups is presumed that a small number of reliability of Indian-supplied INSAS include ethnic and caste militias, politi- AKM rifles were acquired when former rifles Asia( News Agency, 2005). Though cally motivated insurgencies, urban combatants of the People’s Liberation Indian Ordnance Factories and the gangs, and organized crime networks. Army (PLA), the military wing of the challenged the criti- The number and size of Nepal’s armed Maoist UCPN-M, were enlisted in the cism, the Indian Army is planning to groups are poorly understood and Nepal Army. Much larger purchases replace the INSAS in its own invento- little information is available about of Chinese AKM rifles have been ries (Bedi, 2011). their weapons (Bogati, Carapic, and rumoured, but cannot be confirmed Muggah, 2013).The largest and most (Amnesty International, 2006, p. 10). violent, however, was the Maoist As the Maoist insurgency esca- Police firearms uprising of the 1990s and early 2000s. lated in the late 1990s, the monarchy Because the arms acquisitions of the Alhough recently, contemporary armed was pressed to modernize military Nepal Police receive less media cover- groups have become more active or inventories. Published memoirs by age, its imports and inventory are more destructive, the Maoist arsenal war- former officials of the royal court and difficult to estimate than those of the rants special consideration. government say that palace arguments Army. When on duty, Nepal police over rearmament, particularly the choice officers typically carry a handgun (a Maoist weapons of a new infantry rifle, were crucial in Chinese- or Indian-made pistol), while The small arms arsenal of the UCPN-M events that led to the massacre of the constables customarily are armed with is the most politically sensitive small royal family on 1 June 2001. Reportedly, a one-metre wooden truncheon (a laathi) arms issue in Nepal today. When fight- the final catalyst was King Birendra’s or a Lee-Enfield rifle (Military Photos, ing against the government ended refusal to approve the purchase of 2008). Special units are believed to be under the Comprehensive Peace Agree- 50,000 Heckler and Koch G36 rifles, armed with more modern weapons, ment signed on 21 November 2006, a gun that had become the personal including automatic rifles. Given the the Maoists agreed to place soldiers passion of Prince Dipendra (Dahal, complement of 47,000 officers in the of the PLA in cantonments or holding 2011c; IBNLive, 2009). Nepal Police (IISS, 2011, p. 270), and camps and to surrender their weap- In the months following the mas- assuming one firearm per officer, it may ons to international control, under a sacre, the government signed a series be concluded that the police control Disarmament, Demobilization, and of arms contracts. These agreements, approximately 47,000 firearms.4 Reintegration (DDR) programme. In made public by exporting governments, In 2001, Nepal also created a gen- exchange, the UCPN-M received legal provide some of the best information darmerie (or heavy police force), for recognition, including the right to par-

6 Nepal Issue Brief Number 2 May 2013 ticipate in elections. It was also agreed Chinese-made Kalashnikovs, are M16A2 automatic rifles, probably looted that PLA troops would be integrated reportedly carried by former guerrillas or extorted from government security into the Nepal Army (Rynn, Greene, enlisted in the army (MoD, 2011). services, and Chinese Kalashnikovs, and Bogati, 2008). The agreement gen- While the 3,475 PLA small arms probably imported through black mar- erated several controversies, including that were handed over have been ver- ket connections (Nepali Perspectives, disputes about the number of both ified, the size and types of weapons 2006). Photographs and videos of the PLA cadres (guerrillas) and their fire- in the PLA’s total arsenal, including weapons turned over in April 2012 arms. The Maoists turned in some weapons presumed to exist but not showed many bolt-action Lee-Enfield weapons in 2007, but they have not surrendered, remains uncertain. To rifles and some INSAS and Kalashnikov fully declared their inventory, leaving estimate its size, two general rules are rifles (Himalayan Times, 2012). The much unknown. relevant. First, in lieu of other infor- weapons photographed appeared to Because total insurgent small arms mation, it generally is assumed that be in working condition. Whether the usually are calculated as a proportion insurgent fighters average 1.6 small PLA was able to acquire ammunition of combatants, personnel numbers arms or light weapons each (Karp, for its diverse armoury is not known. are instrumental to estimating their 2010, p. 120). This allocation permits arsenals. All DDR programmes need each combatant a personal firearm, to address the unintentional incentives usually a rifle, while some also carry Legal arms transfers for demobilizing forces to exaggerate an additional light weapon or side The most systematic data source on their size to improve their bargaining arm. Second, DDR experience shows the legal flow of small arms in and position and maximize payouts to sup- that groups typically surrender to out of Nepal is the UN reporting sys- porters. In Liberia, for example, 25,000 outside authorities roughly one-third tem on international trade, Comtrade. combatants were expected to register of their small arms and light weapons This system only records formally in 2003. Instead 103,000 people were when they demobilize (Karp, 2009, declared commercial transfers. Although registered as combatants, although just pp. 183–87; IRIN, 2012). unsurpassed for its systematic cover- 28,314 weapons were received, includ- If these rules hold for Nepal’s PLA, age, Comtrade is neither comprehen- ing parts (Daboh, 2010, p. 9). the PLA’s 9,507 recognized guerrillas sive nor easy to use. It misses much of Nepal’s DDR also appears to have possessed roughly 15,000 small arms the military and law enforcement trade, been affected by this tendency. Inspectors and light weapons before the 2006 which is not consistently reported to from the United Nations Mission in peace agreement. This estimate may customs authorities, as well as small Nepal (UNMIN) initially registered be high. Photographs of Maoists taken scale, undeclared imports by individ- 30,852 PLA personnel (Rynn, Greene, before 2006, showing unarmed guer- uals. Similarly, it is not designed to and Bogati, 2008, p. 12). This number rillas, substantiate the impression that capture illicit imports or trade in craft was later reduced to 19,600 verified PLA guerrillas were not generously guns, which are almost certainly the former Maoist guerrillas, consolidated equipped (Nepali Perspectives, 2006). largest by volume in Nepal. in regional cantonments (Kaphle, 2010). Allowing for this, it may be sensible Comtrade data also suffer from The number was further reduced in to assume a ratio of one weapon for sloppiness in its reporting. It is not May 2009, after a video was made public each guerrilla, which would imply that uncommon for military purchases to in which the Maoist leader, Puspa the PLA controlled some 9,500 small be entered in civilian categories and Kamal Dahal (Prachanda), who later arms and light weapons. Consistent vice versa (Marsh, 2005). It has long became Prime Minister, acknowledged with the one-third experience of other been suspected that some major ex- that the PLA had 7,000 to 8,000 com- DDR programmes, and knowing that porters, notably China, fail to report batants (IISS, 2011). After negotiations, 3,475 weapons were surrendered in politically sensitive contracts, possibly it was finally recognized that 9,507 2006, some 6,000 PLA small arms prob- including small arms shipments to guerrillas were eligible for integration ably remained outside United Nations’ the Nepal Army or Maoist guerrillas into the Nepal Army, of which the control as the DDR programme took (Amnesty International, 2006, p. 9). government agreed to accept 6,500 shape in 2006. Whether the Maoists Nevertheless, though some major (Jha, 2012; Shrestha, 2012). acquired additional weapons after 2006 military assistance shipments may be In 2007, the PLA submitted 3,475 is a matter of speculation. missing and the cumulative effect of weapons to UN control. These were Photographs show Maoists with an small scale imports by individuals can stored in sealed shipping containers eclectic variety of firearms, suggesting be considerable, the system provides at two locations (Zhi, 2011). After fur- they relied on opportunism to provi- a general sense of scale. ther negotiations, these weapons were sion themselves, rather than a formal The information provided here is turned over to the Nepal Army on or predominant supplier. Their arsenal assembled from individual export and 21 April 2012. Some weapons, notably included Lee-Enfield bolt-action and import entries declared in four major

www.nepal-ava.org 7 Table 4 Comtrade: declared firearms imports to Nepal, 1992–2010 categories for reporting firearms exports (see Table 4). The figures presented Comtrade category Total imports in USD* Percentage do not include other commonly used 930190 Military firearms 6,827,638 0.46 categories, such as military weapons, 930200 Pistols and revolvers 381,768 0.03 which often mix transfers of major 930320 Sport shotguns 5,901,532 0.40 weapons systems and smaller ordnance. Comtrade reports indicate that, between 930330 Sport rifles 1,738,687 0.12 1992 (when the current reporting cat- Note: *This total is cumulated from then-year USD. egories were established) and 2010, Source: UN Comtrade (n.d.) Nepal imported firearms with a total Table 5 Comtrade: declared firearms imports to Nepal, 1992-2010, by exporter declared value of USD 14.85 million. Imports surged in the 1990s, in re- Total exports in USD* Percentage sponse to increased fighting between United States 7,995,803 0.54 the government and Maoists. They Belgium 3,043,481 0.20 peaked in 2003, when major shipments China 2,241,658 0.15 were received from Belgium and the United States, and again in 2010, when India 563,001 0.04 a large transfer arrived from China 397,550 0.03 (see Figure 2). 308,364 0.02 Military firearms transfers to Nepal Singapore 166,228 0.01 reported in Comtrade only include United Kingdom 81,158 0.01 shipments from the United States. Military transfers from other sources Germany 29,204 ‹0.01 are absent or, as in the case of the trans- Hong Kong 5,170 ‹0.01 fer of 23,000 INSAS rifles from India, Israel 4,093 ‹0.01 may be submerged in other reported Austria 2,876 ‹0.01 deliveries and cannot be readily dis- aggregated. Misreporting also affects 2,696 ‹0.01 the data. A 2003 transfer worth over 1,734 ‹0.01 USD 3 million, reported in Comtrade unspecified 1,407 ‹0.01 as sport shotguns from Belgium, may 1,015 ‹0.01 in fact have been the delivery of a con- 1,008 ‹0.01 troversial order for 5,000 machine guns (Crivellaro, 2002). 948 ‹0.01 Comtrade indicates that the domi- 100 ‹0.01 nant exporter of firearms to Nepal for Total 14,847,494 1.00 most of the past two decades was the

Notes: *These totals are cumulated from then-year USD. United States (see Table 5 and Figure Source: UN Comtrade (n.d.) 2). American exports, which peaked from 2002 to 2004, were probably Table 6 Declared firearms exports from Nepal, 1992–2010 mostly commercial transfers of M16 Year Recipient Comtrade category Declared value, USD* rifles. Exports from other countries are highly erratic, dominated by individ- 1994 Unspecified 930200 Pistols and revolvers 243 ual transactions rather than bilateral 2004 Germany 930320 Sport shotguns 1,000 relationships. Prominent examples 2007 930190 Military firearms 312 include the delivery in 2003 by India 2008 United States 930190 Military firearms 5,869 of sporting rifles with a declared value

2009 930330 Sport rifles 12,916 of USD 548,974, and the delivery in 2010 from China of handguns worth 2009 United States 930330 Sport rifles 181 USD 2,179,717. For both countries, 2009 United Kingdom 930330 Sport rifles 181 these transfers constituted over 97 Total 20,702 per cent of their declared firearms

Note: *These values are cumulated from then-year USD. exports to Nepal during the period, Source: UN Comtrade (n.d.) in the given categories.

8 Nepal Issue Brief Number 2 May 2013 Figure 2 Comtrade: declared firearms imports to Nepal in USD per year, 1992–2010 The Lagan Silekhana was less an

7,000,000 arsenal than a dump, where unwanted equipment was abandoned, if only to

6,000,000 prevent others from misusing it. It was filled with military firearms produced between the mid-nineteenth and mid- 5,000,000 twentieth centuries (Cranmer, 2004, p. 95). The collection shows that, 4,000,000 between the 1840s and 1930, Nepal re-equipped the army roughly six 3,000,000 times with new military rifles, acquir- ing 2,000–5,000 each time at intervals 2,000,000 of 10–15 years. Most were gifts from the British East India Company and later 1,000,000 from the imperial government of India, intended to strengthen Nepal against 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China. At least one model of rifle Source: UN Comtrade (n.d.) appears to have been manufactured in Nepal. The last such gift appears to Comtrade also shows that Nepal was not publicly announced at the have been made in 1930, when Britain exports arms, albeit occasionally and time. It became widely known when transferred some 2,000 Lee-Enfield on a very small scale (see Table 6). the antiques were offered for public rifles (Walter, 2005, pp. 94–95). Comtrade does not record some much sale in the United States (James, 2004). From confusion or because they larger exports from Nepal, however, Eight years passed before the sale pro- were deliberately decommissioned, notably the shipment of 56,357 antique voked a public scandal in Nepal over some weapons acquired by the Nepal and obsolescent firearms in 2003, dis- the loss of historic artefacts, although Army after 1945 also were deposited cussed in ‘Nepal’s lost antique arsenal’, their cultural value is debatable in the casemates of Lagan Silekhana below. Many of those weapons were (Shimkhada, 2011). A case can be and another site, Tumu. Most were fully functional and relatively modern. made that the equipment, especially Sten Guns and M3 sub-machine guns Their absence reveals further weak- the unique Nepalese designs, consti- (Cranmer, 2004, p. 95). Only aggre- nesses in Comtrade reporting. tute lost national patrimony. The most gated totals have been provided persuasive evidence in support of this for the Lagan arms dump, but it is view comes not from the erstwhile feasible that other rifles and weapons Nepal’s lost antique arsenal owners, but from buyers. An article in were left there. Reports state that few Some of the most significant Nepalese the American trade press referred to handguns were found at Lagan (Walter, weapons, especially for historical or the Nepalese arsenal as ‘treasure’, ‘rare 2005, pp. 80–85). Other weapons may analytical purposes, are no longer in artifacts’, and, most revealing, ‘the have been pilfered, destroyed, or sold the country. As noted above, a large loot’. The same writer compared the at an earlier date. volume of antique and obsolescent transfer to ‘the dream of finding buried The weapons in Lagan Silkhana firearms was sold for USD 3.3 million chests of Spanish doubloons or an offer a unique picture of older firearms in 2003 to a US-based antiques dealer. undiscovered Rembrandt’ (James, 2004). in contemporary arsenals. Even if the They included 31,213 operational, Now for commercial sale, the most stock was a partial set, the Nepalese antique, and obsolescent military fire- expensive items are Nepalese-designed cache provided the most complete arms and 25,144 unserviceable firearms, machine guns, offered to collectors for record of the modernization of a coun- in addition to other military equip- USD 27,500 each (Dahal, 2011a). try’s military small arms, revealing not ment (Dahal, 2011b). The deal, which As royal property, the forgotten only the types but also the quantities of appears to have been intended to raise weapons had been stored in a cache weapons that Nepal acquired. Weapons money for the purchase of modern referred to in the trade press as the from the same period probably take weaponry, may have been associated Langan Silekhana Palace (James, up space in many countries’ arsenals. with the severe argument in the royal 2004). Apparently this is the armoury Much larger obsolescent inventories are court over rearming the army to fight (silekhana) in the Kathmandu neighbour- believed to exist. has 823,000 the Maoists (Dahal, 2011c). hood of Lagan, the old prime ministe- bolt-action rifles assigned to army The sale was essentially a private rial residence of Bhimsen Thapa Durbar reserve units (Dreyfus, 2010, p. 124). transaction by the royal court and (Bell, 2011). India is believed to have an even larger

www.nepal-ava.org 9 number of bolt-action rifles deployed the country’s unique situation. This the small arms inventories of armed with its army, paramilitaries, and police Issue Brief shows that sources such as groups and former guerrilla. (Karp and Rajagopalan, 2013, p. 15). police reports, public surveys, and If progress is made on these matters, However, the former Nepal arsenal is UN Comtrade can throw light on the Nepal, its neighbours, and the interna- unusually well documented. distribution of firearms in the country. tional community will be able to reduce While most of these weapons have However imperfect, these tools confirm the dangers posed by small arms in limited use in contemporary armed the impression that, by international post-conflict Nepal more effectively. conflict, it is important to identify and standards, gun availability in Nepal quantify antiquarian arsenals, in order is moderate. As the country wrestles to separate them from inventories of with post-conflict violence and democ- Notes modern weapons. Previous country ratization, it is not burdened by massive 1 This corresponds to the years 2063–67 in estimates by the Small Arms Survey, arsenals of weapons. Even the hidden the Nepalese calendar. for example, ignored pre-1950s small inventories of former Maoist guerrillas 2 The 1.8 firearms per soldier rule for constab- arms, not because the weapons were probably do not number more than a ulary militaries is explained in Karp (2006). useless, but because researchers were few thousand small arms. 3 See Watters (2012a, 2012b, 2012c, 2012d). 4 unable to estimate their number system- Some of the problems revealed in By comparison, law enforcement agencies are normally assumed to be armed at a atically. Nepal’s lost arsenal, although these findings could be addressed. rate of 1.3 firearms per officer (Karp,2012 ). transferred to private owners, offers Weaknesses in the licensing and regis- 5 Wikipedia reports that the Nepal APF a unique window into the types and tration regime and the high proportion controls 142,000 rifles, sub-machine guns, quantities of older weapons in coun- of illicit craft guns undermine the and machine guns (Wikipedia, n.d.). try stocks. credibility of the law and arms policy. The size of obsolescent stockpiles in Aggressive enforcement, community other countries cannot be extrapolated policing, and the introduction of strat- Bibliography from the single example of the Lagan egies to encourage legal compliance Amnesty International. 2006. People’s Republic of Silekhana cache. In the absence of other could reduce concealed firearms China: Sustaining Conflict and Human Rights Abuses. London: Amnesty International. examples, country firearm estimates ownership in Nepal and elsewhere in Asia News Agency. 2005. ‘Indo-Nepal War of will continue to favour conventional South Asia (Verma, 2012). Promising Words over INSAS Rifles.’ Web edition, practice, which is to exclude obsoles- approaches include lowering barriers 22 August. firearms such as bolt-action rifles. If and encouraging voluntary and non- Bedi, Rahul. 2011. ‘India Goes Shopping for a New .’ Rediff, 30 November. more examples like Nepal’s can be punitive weapon surrenders, possibly country arms totals, as appropriate. there remain large areas of uncertainty. Bell, Thomas. 2011. ‘The History House.’ 15 To improve the effectiveness of policy Kathmandu Post. Web edition, September. Small arms are an important factor in about private and state small arms Bogati, Subindra, Jovana Carapic, and Robert Muggah. 2013. The Missing Middle: Exam- post-conflict environments. This is true holdings. Priorities for further investi- gation include: ining the Armed Group Phenomenon in Nepal. of Nepal, even though its problems of NAVA Issue Brief no. 1. Geneva: Small post-conflict violence are less serious regional variations in private fire- Arms Survey. and possibly easier to resolve than those arms ownership and use, between CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics). 2011. of many countries in Africa, Central the Kathmandu Valley, Terai, and ‘Major Highlights.’ In Preliminary Result of National Population Census 2011 Released. America, or the Middle East. Small the rest of Nepal; Kathmandu: CBS. arms policy will play an important the scale and pattern of the illegal Cranmer, Christian. 2004. Treasure is Where role in shaping the country’s future. trade in craft guns from north India; You Find It: The Thirty-year Quest to Save So far, however, reform has been lim- legal and illegal importation of the Royal Armory of Nepal. Gillette, New ited. Modest changes have been made weapons from China to civilians, Jersey: Tharston Press. to civilian firearm regulations and armed groups, and state security Crivellaro, Rachel. 2002. ‘Une Commande à Destination du Népal.’ La Libre Belgique. some former guerrilla weapons have services in Nepal; Web edition, 22 August.

10 Nepal Issue Brief Number 2 May 2013 Dahal, Phanindra. 2011a. ‘Lost History: Strategic Comments.Vol. 17, No. 4, April, com/the-kathmandu-post/2012/07/01/ Gehendra-made Guns Sold off to US pp. 1–3. metro/arrests-related-to-small-arms- Company.’ Kathmandu Post. Web edition, —. 2012. The Military Balance 2012. London: down/236657.html> 25 August. Jha, Prashant. 2012. ‘Maoist Army Integration Institute. —. 2011b. ‘Only Half Payment Made till Process Remains Stalled, Riddled with MoD (Ministry of Defence of Nepal). 2011. Date.’ Kathmandu Post. Web edition, Complications.’ The Hindu. Web edition, ‘Nepalese Ministry of Defense.’ Invasion- 13 August. Modi, J., C. Nigam, and K. Kumar. 1984. payment-made-till-date/339018.html> Kaphle, Anup. 2010. ‘Long Stalemate after ‘Improvised Firearms Versus Regular —. 2011c. ‘Palace, Politicos were Hand in Glove Maoist Victory Disrupts Life in Nepal.’ Firearms.’ Forensic Science International, in Deal.’ Kathmandu Post. Web edition, Washington Post, 7 July. Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 199–205. 11 August. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 37–63. showthread.php?128604-Nepal-Armed- Daboh, Fodeba, Sahr Fatoma, and Michael —. 2007a. ‘Completing the Count: Civilian Force-Photo-Gallery> Kuch. 2010. ‘Disarmament, Demobilization, Firearms.’ In Small Arms Survey. Small Nepal. 1963. Arms and Ammunition Act 2019 Rehabilitation and Reintegration (DDRR): Arms Survey 2007: Guns and the City. (1962). Assented 5 February. a Case Study of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Nepali Perspectives. 2006. ‘An Analysis of South Sudan.’ New York Science Journal, pp. 39–71. Photos of Nepali Maoist Weapons.’ Web Vol. 3, No. 6, pp. 6–19. —. 2007b. ‘Annexe 2: Twenty-three Countries edition, 14 September. Report No. 11. Geneva: Small Arms Survey. www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/ PAP (People’s Armed Police). n.d. Presenta- Eger, Christopher. ‘Production Variants of the docs/A-Yearbook/2007/en/Small-Arms- tion on Illicit Use of Small Arms in Nepal. FAL.’ Suite 101. Web edition, 30 December. Survey-2007-Chapter-02-annexe-2-EN.pdf> Kathmandu: PAP. Faces of Small Arms Disarmament.’ In Claims of Nepalese Army on INSAS Rifle.’ Ezell, Edward. 1988. Small Arms Today, 2nd edn. Small Arms Survey. Small Arms Survey Web edition, 13 August. Fuyal, Ramesh Prasad. n.d. Illicit Use of Small Cambridge University Press, pp. 159–91. Pun, Kiran. 2012. ‘Ex-Maoist Combatants Arms in Nepal. Presentation for Crime Inves- —. 2010. ‘Elusive Arsenals: Gang and Group Join NA.’ My República. Web edition, tigation Department, Naxal. Kathmandu. Firearms.’ In Small Arms Survey. Small 22 November. Interdisciplinary Analysts and Saferworld. pp. 101–27. Racovita, Mihaela, Ryan Murray, and Sud­hindra Hazen, Jennifer et al. 2011. Armed Violence in —. 2012. Estimating Law Enforcement Firearms. Sharma. 2012. In Search of Lasting Security: the Terai. London and Geneva: Saferworld, Issue Brief No. 24. Geneva: Small Arms An Assessment of Armed Violence in Nepal. Nepal Madhes Foundation, and Small Survey. Special Report No. 19. Geneva: Small Arms Survey. Karp, Aaron and Rajesh Rajagopalan. 2013. Arms Survey. Himalayan Times. 2012. ‘Maoist Weapons Small Arms of the Indian State: Procurement —. 2013. In Search of Lasting Security: An Assess- Handover, 2068.’ Web edition, 11 April. and Production. India Armed Violence ment of Armed Violence in Nepal. Special IBN Live. 2009. ‘Dipendra Killed His Family Assessment Issue Brief. Geneva: Small Report No. 19. Geneva: Small Arms Survey. for Love: Paras.’ Web edition, 30 March. Arms Survey. RAOnline. n.d. ‘Maoist Rebels’ Arms Supply

www.nepal-ava.org 11 for International Cooperation and Security, UN Comtrade. n.d. UN Commodity Trade Yogi, Bhagirath. 2005. ‘Nepal Receives India University of Bradford, July. Statistics Database. Accessed 16 July 2012. Military Aid.’ BBC World News. Web edi- Sharma, Nirjana. 2012. ‘Arms for Personal tion, 6 July. ons Are Being Used.’ Kathmandu Post. eds. 2012. Global Community Policing: Zhi, Chen. 2011. ‘Nepali Maoist Hands Over Web edition, 6 February. are-being-used/231227.html> Guns of the Royal Nepalese Army, 1816– Sharma, Sudhir. 2009. ‘King Birendra and 1945. Gillette, New Jersey: Tharston Crown Prince Deependra Both Had Liked Press. German Weapon.’ Kantipur Daily, 1 April. Watters, Daniel. 2012a. ‘The 5.56 × 45mm: Shimkhada, Deepak. 2011. ‘Goodbye Guns.’ 2000–01, A Chronology of Development.’ Kathmandu Post. Web edition, 28 August. Gun Zone. kathmandu-post/2011/08/27/oped/ —. 2012b. ‘The 5.56 × 45 mm: 2002–03, goodbye-guns/225645.html> A Chronology of Development.’ Gun Shrestha Lal, Hiranya. 2006. ‘Proliferation of Zone. In Shiva Dhungana, ed. The Maoist Insur- —. 2012c. ‘The 5.56 × 45 mm: 2004, A Chronol- gency and Nepal–India Relations. Kathmandu: ogy of Development.’ Gun Zone. Shrestha, Manesh. 2012. ‘Nepal Maoists under —. 2012d. ‘The 5.56 × 45 mm: 2005, A Chronol- Army Now.’ Times of India. Web edition, ogy of Development.’ Gun Zone. indiatimes.com/2012-04-11/rest-of-world/ Wikipedia. n.d.a. ‘Nepalese Army.’ Accessed 31324228_1_maoist-combatants-nepal- 1 November 2012. org/wiki/Nepalese_Army>

About the Nepal Armed Violence Credits Assessment Author: Aaron Karp The Nepal Armed Violence Assessment (NAVA) is a project Copy-editor: Robert Archer (Plain Sense) and Estelle Jobson of the Small Arms Survey. It serves as an independent re- Proofreader: Donald Strachan ([email protected]) search resource for Nepalese officials, civil society groups, Design and layout: Richard Jones ([email protected]) and international partners. The NAVA combines primary

and secondary data sources, but focuses on generating The author wishes to thank Subindra Bogati, Charles Kirch, Nic Marsh, original data and analysis through field research. Methods Sonal Marwah, Ryan Murray, Sarah Parker, Mihaela Racovita, and Sagar include in-depth interviews with key informants, archival Rijal for their guidance and assistance with research. media research, focus groups, and population-based surveys.

The NAVA explores the following key themes: Contact details Small arms transfers, trafficking, availability, and control; The types and characteristics of armed actors; Small Arms Survey The distribution and scale of armed violence and 47 Avenue Blanc, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland victimization; t +41 22 908 5777 Perceptions of armed violence and their economic impacts; f +41 22 732 2738 Media depictions; and representations of armed violence. e [email protected] NAVA publications, which include Working Papers and Issue Briefs, summarize research findings and insight into issues related to violence, its impact, perpetrators and vic- tims, and strategies for prevention and reduction.

NAVA publications are available in English and Nepali.

They can be downloaded at http://www.nepal-ava.org/.

Print copies are available from the Small Arms Survey.

12 NepalSudan Issue Brief Number Number 6 2 April May 2007 2013