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Panorama Geopolítico De Los Conflictos 2020 Panorama geopolítico Instituto Español de los conflictos 2020 de Estudios Estratégicos MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Instituto Panorama geopolítico Español de los conflictos 2020 de Estudios Estratégicos MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA CATÁLOGO GENERAL DE PUBLICACIONES OFICIALES https://cpage.mpr.gob.es Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA https://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Autores y editor, 2020 NIPO: 083-16-414-6 (edición papel) NIPO: 083-16-415-1 (edición libro-e) ISBN: 978-84-9091-525-7 (edición papel) ISSN: 2530-3643 (edición papel) Deposito Legal: M 28775-2017 Fecha de edición: diciembre 2020 Maqueta e imprime: Ministerio de Defensa Las opiniones emitidas en esta publicación son exclusiva responsabilidad de los autores de la misma. Los derechos de explotación de esta obra están amparados por la Ley de Propiedad Intelectual. Ninguna de las partes de la misma puede ser reproducida, almacenada ni transmitida en ninguna forma ni por medio alguno, electrónico, mecánico o de grabación, incluido fotocopias, o por cualquier otra forma, sin permiso previo, expreso y por escrito de los titulares del © Copyright. En esta edición se ha utilizado papel 100% libre de cloro procedente de bosques gestionados de forma sostenible. ÍNDICE Página Introducción Panorama geopolítico de los conflictos 2020 ................................................ 11 Francisco José Dacoba Cerviño El entorno inmediato ............................................................................................................... 13 El entorno cercano ................................................................................................................... 14 El entorno lejano ...................................................................................................................... 17 Capítulo primero El Ártico como espacio de conflicto geopolítico ......................................... 21 Federico Aznar Fernández-Montesinos Introducción ............................................................................................................................... 23 Antecedentes del conflicto .................................................................................................... 24 Situación actual del conflicto ................................................................................................. 25 Un dilema de seguridad, papel de los actores externos: implicaciones regionales... 34 Conclusiones y prospectiva ................................................................................................... 47 Cronología .................................................................................................................................. 49 Capítulo segundo El agua del Tíbet: un recurso vital para China ............................................... 51 María del Mar Hidalgo García Introducción ............................................................................................................................... 53 Antecedentes ............................................................................................................................ 57 Situación actual ......................................................................................................................... 60 La cuenca del Lancang-Mekong ............................................................................... 61 El agua en las disputas fronterizas entre China e India ....................................... 66 El papel de los actores externos .......................................................................................... 71 Conclusiones y perspectiva ................................................................................................... 74 Cronología .................................................................................................................................. 79 5 Página Capítulo tercero Conflictividad en la frontera sur de Turquía ................................................... 83 Felipe Sánchez Tapia Introducción ............................................................................................................................... 85 Intervención de Turquía en el norte de Irak y Siria .......................................................... 86 Norte de Irak ................................................................................................................. 86 Siria ................................................................................................................................. 88 Intervención militar de Turquía .......................................................................... 92 Operaciones en Idlib. Auge del yihadismo ..................................................... 94 Facciones enfrentadas en Idlib .......................................................................... 94 Fuerzas del régimen y milicias afines ..................................................... 94 Fuerzas de oposición ............................................................................... 95 La ofensiva sobre Idlib ......................................................................................... 98 Rivalidad regional y potencias externas ............................................................................. 102 La expansión de Irán ................................................................................................... 102 Los países árabes ......................................................................................................... 104 Israel ................................................................................................................................ 105 Las potencias coloniales ............................................................................................. 106 Las potencias globales ................................................................................................ 108 Rusia ........................................................................................................................ 108 Estados Unidos ...................................................................................................... 110 China ....................................................................................................................... 112 Conclusiones y prospectiva ................................................................................................... 113 Capítulo cuarto El golfo Pérsico: una guerra fría en aguas recalentadas .......................... 117 José Ignacio Castro Torres Introducción ............................................................................................................................... 119 Antecedentes del conflicto .................................................................................................... 121 Situación actual del conflicto ................................................................................................. 124 Las repercusiones de la crisis iraquí en el conflicto del Golfo ........................... 124 Tensión en las aguas: Irán frente al potencial naval ............................................. 127 Guerra de proxies entre Irán y Arabia Saudí. El conflicto de Yemen ............... 133 Papel de los actores externos ............................................................................................... 137 Estados Unidos y Reino Unido. La alianza del poder marítimo ......................... 137 China y la iniciativa OBOR. Las oportunidades en el Golfo Pérsico ................. 138 Las relaciones de conveniencia entre Rusia e Irán................................................ 139 Conclusiones y prospectiva ................................................................................................... 141 ANEXO I –Tabla: Cronología del conflicto ......................................................................... 142 Capítulo quinto Afganistán: un conflicto interminable, una paz…, ¿imposible? ........... 145 Juan Alberto Mora Tebas Introducción ............................................................................................................................... 147 Antecedentes del conflicto .................................................................................................... 149 1.a Guerra civil (1978-1992): instalación de un Gobierno comunista-rebelión de los muyahidines-invasión/retirada soviética.............................................. 149 6 Página 2.ª Guerra civil. 1.ª Fase (1992-1994): colapso de la República Socialista/ enfrentamientos entre muyahidines ................................................................. 150 2.ª Guerra civil. 2.ª Fase (1994-1996): mandato de los Señores de la Guerra 151 2.ª Guerra civil. 3.ª Fase (1996-2001): talibanes contra la Alianza del Norte . 151 Guerra de Afganistán. 1.ª Fase (2001-2014): despliegue de la Coalición In- ternacional .............................................................................................................. 151 Guerra de Afganistán. 2.ª Fase (2015-2020): enfrentamientos fuerzas regu- lares afganas contra talibanes y otros grupos islamistas insurgentes. In- cremento de la violencia. Acuerdo de paz ..................................................... 152 Situación actual del conflicto ................................................................................................. 153 2018 ................................................................................................................................ 153 2019
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