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The Arctic in World Affairs: a North Pacific Dialogue on Arctic 2030 And EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 0115(12교)2018 NPAC_part 1(1-80).indd 1 2019.1.15 6:43:16 AM 2 The Arctic in World Affairs 0115(12교)2018 NPAC_part 1(1-80).indd 2 2019.1.15 6:43:16 AM Overview 3 Overview: Arctic 2030 and Beyond— Pathways to the Future1 Yoon Hyung Kim, Oran R. Young, Robert W. Corell, Jong Deog Kim, Arild Moe, and David L. VanderZwaag INTRODUCTION Earth has entered an unprecedented era of transformative change. Human actions have joined biophysical forces as drivers of multi-faceted developments on a global scale. As a result, future climatic conditions will differ profoundly from the relatively stable climate that humans have experienced over the past 10,000 years. These global forces are already generating rapid and far-reaching ecological changes in the Arctic. In turn, developments in the Arctic are intensifying both the scale and the pace of environmental, political, and economic changes in lower latitudes. Efforts to address Arctic issues constructively must recognize these developments as a point of departure. Human actions on a global scale are interacting with biophysical forces to increase the complexity, dynamism, and volatility of Earth’s ecological systems. The ripple effects of these changes are becoming more apparent with every passing year, affecting human societies in subtle and profound ways. Over the past several years, many governments, research organizations, and individual authors have issued reports indicating that the major drivers of change at the global level stem from human activities, largely from the burning of hydrocarbons, with far-reaching consequences for the future. These reports include the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Global Warming of 1.5°C, the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 report “Alternative Worlds” (2012) and its “Paradox of Progress” report (2017), the European Union’s Global Trends to 2030 report, the United Nations’ Global Sustainable Development reports, the OECD’s study The Next 50 Years, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk reports, the Australian Government’s white papers in 2012 and 2017, and Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler’s (KPMG) Future State 2030. While the characterization of these large trends varies somewhat 0115(12교)2018 NPAC_part 1(1-80).indd 3 2019.1.15 6:43:16 AM 4 The Arctic in World Affairs from report to report, there is broad consensus on certain critical and accelerating megatrends that are transforming the planet. Among those trends with greatest relevance to the future of the Arctic are the following: During the 10,000 years of the Holocene, global mean surface temperatures on Earth varied by less than +/- 0.7°C. Now, the global mean surface temperature regime has reached a new high of + 0.9°C. In the Arctic, temperatures have risen 2°C-2.5°C, reaching a level that has not occurred for more than 100,000 years. Temperature increases are now accelerating in a way that threatens the unusually stable climate regime of the Holocene, the era in which human civilization has evolved. As the energy strategies of the past two and a half centuries since the Industrial Revolution enter the 21st century, the impacts of climate change are becoming evident in the form of rising sea levels, more extreme weather events, widespread flooding, and increased desertification. The past four years, including 2018, have been the warmest since the instrumental record began in the 1800s. More generally, human actions have become dominant forces on a planetary scale. As a consequence of population growth, rising affluence, and technological innovation, humans have transformed half of Earth’s available land and appropriated for their own use more than half of the available fresh water. Human actions have triggered a loss of biological diversity that many now regard as the 6th great extinction event. Taken together, these transformative developments constitute what analysts now call the Great Acceleration. Technological advancements are accelerating as well, with a different kind of transformative power. Dr. Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum and an authority on technological developments, observes that: “We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do not yet know just how it will unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the global polity, from the public and private sectors to academia and civil society…. The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices, with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge, are unlimited. And these possibilities will be multiplied by emerging 0115(12교)2018 NPAC_part 1(1-80).indd 4 2019.1.15 6:43:16 AM Overview 5 technology breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing.” This emerging epoch, which many call the 4th Industrial Revolution, is characterized by a fusion of technologies and socio-economic conditions that is blurring the lines among the physical, digital, and biological spheres. The speed of technological change has no historical precedent; changes are now exponential in contrast to the near-linear pace of past changes. These developments pose profound challenges of adaptation for both individuals and societies. Dr. Eric Teller of Google’s X Research and Development Laboratory has put it this way: 1. Technological and socio-economic foundations of global societies have changed exponentially, with the rate of change accelerating in the past several decades. 2. Human individuals and societies generally adapt more slowly, in an almost linear fashion. 3. These two characteristics of modern societies have crossed through time, so that humans are now seemingly unable to adapt adequately and in a timely fashion. The impacts of climate change are unfolding more rapidly in the Arctic than in any other part of the world. The most dramatic example involves sea ice. The annual extent of sea ice at the September minimum has declined by 13.2 percent per decade for a number of decades; the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free for several summer months within the next two or three decades. Other developments include the widespread thawing of permafrost and accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet. While these changes are opening up access to the Arctic’s large reserves of hydrocarbons and minerals, they are also posing severe problems for Arctic communities, such as increased storm surges that lead to coastal erosion and thawing permafrost that leads to the degradation of critical infrastructure. These regional changes are triggering feedbacks that are significant on a global scale. The albedo of seawater is lower than the albedo of ice, so the decline of sea ice in the Arctic is leading to increased absorption of solar radiation at Earth’s surface, which in turn accelerates global warming. The increased accessibility of the Arctic is opening up the prospect of extracting Arctic oil and especially gas in ways that are expected to have significant 0115(12교)2018 NPAC_part 1(1-80).indd 5 2019.1.15 6:43:16 AM 6 The Arctic in World Affairs impacts on global energy markets—and on further climate changes. Taken together, these developments are complex, transformative, and paradoxical; they are likely to alter human well-being, the security of nations, and governance systems on a global scale. Efforts to achieve sustainability in the Arctic must come to terms with this new world. NPAC nations must bear in mind several key developments that are essential to the achievement of sustainability, as they seek to prioritize and respond to emerging Arctic issues. These include: 1. Climate change is a dominant factor. Climate change will worsen the outlook for the availability of critical energy and other resources, and will likely intensify the severity of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, major storms, intense rainfall and severe droughts, with wet areas getting wetter and dry areas becoming drier. Human migration in response to climate changes and resource scarcity is likely to increase. 2. Information and communication technologies are transforming the world. New technologies have accelerated the diffusion of information and facilitated better access by developing countries to global knowledge. Science and technology have the inherent capacities to foster the knowledge base needed to address the social, economic, and environmental challenges faced by nations and peoples around the world. Scientific research underpins education systems and the innovative capacities essential to advance socio- economic sustainability globally and across regions such as the Arctic. 3. Population growth is a key factor. Most of the growth in human populations expected in the next 30-50 years will occur in Africa and Asia. Starting from a base of 7.6 billion people today, the UN projects a human population of 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050, and up to 11.8 billion by 2100. 4. Changes in the demographics of the middle classes have consequences for the North Pacific region. The middle classes will grow globally, including within the Arctic region, resulting in geopolitical and socio-economic shifts among middle-class nations with consequences for NPAC societies. There will be population growth and demographic shifts, with some movement into the high north as extractive industries develop and seaways open. 0115(12교)2018 NPAC_part 1(1-80).indd 6 2019.1.15 6:43:16 AM Overview 7 5. The Arctic’s natural resources will attract global attention. Population growth and rising affluence on a global scale coupled with increases in the accessibility of the Arctic may make Arctic hydrocarbons and minerals increasingly attractive.
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