Pol. J. Environ. Stud. Vol. 25, No. 2 (2016), 635-646 DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/61259

Original Research

Belgrade’s Urban Transport CO2 Emissions from an International Perspective

Miomir M. Jovanovic

Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 3/3, Belgrade,

Received: 5 June 2015 Accepted: 4 January 2016

Abstract

Focusing on the implementation of increasingly strict energy and emission standards, the effect of the rapid increase in the use of motor vehicles on the degree of air pollution and energy consumption is com- pletely neglected. All recent technological improvements and changes in the transport sector: sub stitution of fuels, increased use of diesel vehicles, direct gasoline injection, supercharging, electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, etc., cannot offset massive growth in traffi c, combined with signifi cantly heavier, more powerful, more luxurious and thus more fuel-consuming vehicles. Hence, in this paper we focused on the carbon emis- sions and energy consumption of urban from an international perspective. Although

the level of automobile CO2 emissions in Belgrade is still very low at 228 CO2 kg/per capita, due to the low volume of automobile passenger kilometres (1,502 pkm), the fact must not be overlooked that automobile mobility is of major importance to the total level of energy consumption in urban transport, and this can change surprisingly quickly. Only if Belgrade adopts transport and spatial development strategies similar to those applied by wealthy Asian metropolises at a similar stage of development is there high probability

that its total urban transport CO2 emissions will stop at a reasonable level of around 700-800 kg CO2/per

capita. Belgrade can prevent a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions and energy consumption (and mitigate the negative local environmental effects of traffi c congestion, traffi c accidents, and air pollution), only if it: 1. Implements a more decisive strategy to limit private vehicle use while its level of car passenger km (PKT) is still relatively low. 2. Does not try to solve its transport problems only by trying to build urban road infrastructure (bridg- es and ring roads).

3. Concentrates on more CO2 and energy-effi cient urban transport systems, while at the same time …. 4. Developing urban rail systems (metro or LRT) with exclusive tracks that are immune to traffi c congestion on urban streets.

Keywords: urban transport, carbon emissions, Belgrade, world metropolises

*e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] 636 Jovanovic M.M.

Introduction in vehicle comfort that have resulted in signifi cantly heavier, more powerful, more luxurious, and thus more In 2009 transport became the highest single energy- fuel consuming vehicles [9, 11]. Actually, an important consuming human activity: it was responsible for 27.3% factor that has accelerated the increase in transport energy of world energy-consumption (compared to 23% in 1973) use and carbon emissions is the gradual growth in size, [1]. weight, and power of passenger vehicles – especially in the Since transport predominantly (95%) relies on a sin- industrialized world. For example, the U.S. Environmental gle fossil resource – petroleum, this sector is responsible Protection Agency has concluded that the U.S. new light- for 24% of world energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) duty vehicle (LDV) fl eet fuel economy in 2005 would emissions, with about three-quarters produced by road ve- have been 24% lower had the fl eet remained at the weight hicles. and perfor mance distribution it had in 1987. Instead, over Moreover, transport activity is expected to grow ro- that time period it became 27% heavier and 30% faster in bustly over the next several decades, and by 2030 total 0-60 mph (0-97 km/h) time, and achieved 5% poorer fuel carbon emissions are projected to be about 80% higher economy [12]. than current levels, doubling by 2050 [2-4]. Also, since increased fuel effi ciency, in fact, effectively The Stern review expects transport to be one of the decreases the unit cost of driving, energy effectiveness and fastest growing sectors in the future and among the last reduced CO2 emissions are seriously offset by increased sectors to bring its emissions down to below current lev- demand for car travel. The latest research clearly shows els [5]. that at least 60% of the potential energy savings from There are two main factors leading to such a huge in- effi ciency improvements is lost due to increased driving, which is called the “rebound effect” [13]. crease in transport CO2 emissions: a) Dependency on the internal combustion engine, Hence, the overall picture shows only a modest with no wide-scale economically viable alternative improvement in fuel consumption and carbon emissions available in the coming decades. of the average vehicle [14]. b) A sharp increase in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), Electric (and also hybrid) vehicles have been strongly which seems to be an inherent feature of economic promoted lately due to the fact that they have minor growth [6], although in previous years there has been GHG emissions related to the vehicle technol ogy it- growing evidence that in many cities (especially in self, but their total GHG emissions are rather signifi cant developed countries) VKT has decoupled from GDP when the elec tricity they use has been produced in coal [7, 8]. power plants. Hence their total carbon footprint when fuel This technological and economic dependency presents production is included is actually very high [4]. This is of a challenging energy effi ciency issue. major signifi cance since two thirds of global electricity is GHG emissions can be decomposed into: produced from fossil fuels [15]. 1) Carbon intensity Actually, worldwide travel studies have shown that 2) Energy effi ciency the average time budget for travel is roughly constant 3) Total transport demand [4] worldwide, with the relative speed of trav el determining Stern review underline that transport is one of the most distances travelled yearly [16]. As incomes have risen, expensive sectors to cut emissions from, because the low travellers have shifted to faster – and more carbon and carbon technologies tend to be expensive and the welfare energy-intensive – modes [2]. costs of reducing demand for travel are high. Transport Transport fuel use worldwide is currently dominated is also expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors by petroleum, with more than 95% of fuel being either in the future. For these two reasons, studies point out gasoline or distillate fuels such as diesel, kerosene, or that transport will be among the last sectors to bring its jet fuel. A new analysis of fuel costs indicates that in the emissions down below current levels [5]. near term (and with oil prices around USD 60/bbl), most All recent technological improvements and changes in alternative fuels will be more expensive than gasoline or the (road) transport sector (substitution of fuels through diesel [17]. While oil extraction is expected to peak and increased use of diesel vehicles, direct gasoline injection, decline within this decade [18], the shortfall will likely supercharging, electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, etc.) be partially compensated for by non-conventional oil cannot offset massive growth in traffi c combined with (such as tar sands) and oth er fossil resources such as gas- growing demand for com fort (air conditioning, etc.), to-liquids and coal-to-liquids. On average, these fuels are which is energy intensive [9]. more energy- and carbon-intensive than oil, caused by For example, there is a reported continuous downward upstream emissions in the supply chain [19]. trend of fuel con sumption due to the technological Finally, worldwide the transport sector’s energy and innovations introduced in modern passenger cars, as well CO2 trends are strongly linked to rising population and as certain market shifts toward more fuel-effi cient (diesel) incomes. Another crucial aspect of the global transport vehi cles [10]. Nevertheless, a large part of this benefi t in system is that much of the world is not yet motorized (due to low incomes). The majority of the world’s population fuel consump tion and CO2 emissions was counterbalanced by various factors, amongst which are stricter safety does not have access to person al vehicles, and many do regulations, consumer demands, and improvements not even have access to motorized of Belgrade’s Urban Transport... 637 any sort. As incomes in the developing nations grow, fuel, and the subsequent transportation, storage, and dis- transport will grow rapidly. When these areas develop and tribution of the fuel to the vehicle tank, and II) a tank-to- respective populations’ incomes rise, the prospects for vast wheels stage (TTW), which refers to the vehicle operation expansion of motorization and increase in fossil fuel use activities throughout its lifetime [24-28]. Regarding en- and GHG emissions is very real [2]. And these prospects ergy consumption and GHG emissions, the WTT part of are exacerbated by evidence that the most attractive form the whole life cycle represents only about 15% of WTW of transport for most people as their incomes rise is the total impact [29]. personal motorized vehicle, which is seen as a status In our study we used only TTW because: symbol as well as being faster, more fl exible, more conve- a) Although the entire WTW cycle includes WTT (which nient, and more comfortable than public transport. covers 15% of the whole WTW cycle), including WTT If the aim is to achieve ambitious energy consumption in calculations on the level of world metropolises is too and GHG reduction for transport within the next few diffi cult to perform (it is much easier to perform this decades, policies will have to be more determined: they kind of analysis/study on the national level). should aim at reducing total consumption, which means b) Including WTT in our calculation cannot change our reduc ing VKT, not just vehicle-specifi c consumption main results/conclusions of the study. [6, 20]. c) By using the results of previous, well known (and of- Due to growth rates in the volume of traffi c, it is ten quoted) research and papers in the literature [30- unlikely that tech nical progress of engines will be suffi cient 33] that cover the extended period from 1960-2005, to reduce overall emissions or even keep them at today’s we made our own research on Belgrade easily compa- levels. For that reason, the focus is increasingly shifting rable. to market-driven instruments, which, apart from creating d) Obtained results of this previous research that covers incentives to develop and use low-emission technologies, TTW (85% of the whole WTW cycle) are methodo- can also reduce the demand for travel [21]. logically very precisely elaborated upon. Joumard rightfully stresses that “only 40% of the effort Following is a precise description of this TTW meth- required should focus on technology, while the remaining odology used for obtaining energy used and CO2 emisions 60% should focus on managing demand for transport and on the metropolitan level. the adoption of more sustainable modes of transport” [9]. Unfortunately, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- Energy Consumption mate Change (IPCC) clearly points out regarding trans- port activity, projections foresee continued growth in glo- All traction energy for all modes of public transportation bal transportation carbon emissions in 2030 to about 80% was collected for this item. The data are collected by type above 2002 levels [2]. of propulsion energy (typically diesel and electricity), Cities contribute to climate change in three main ways: but also petrol, LPG, or others. All data are converted to through direct emissions of GHGs that occur within city Joules for the totals using standard conversion factors as boundaries, through GHG emissions that originate outside shown in Table 1. of city boundaries but are embodied in civil infrastructure The energy data are generally published in the opera- and urban energy consumption, and through city-induced tor’s annual reports, or can be found with national public changes to the earth’s atmospheric chemistry and surface transportation regulating bodies or industry associations. albedo [22]. Where the data were not published they were obtained Since more than half of the global population now through further investigation with the operators (often in lives in towns and cities, and UN-Habitat research forecast the accounting sections because of the fi nancial implica- that this fi gure will rise to two-thirds by the year 2050 tions of fuel use). [23], one of the main issues concerning carbon emissions Also, all public transportation data of all operators is how to limit rapidly rising urban transport. were included in all cities (this distinguishes this set of data In this paper we focus on a comparative analysis of from others, where often only the principal operator(s) of carbon emissions in the urban transport of Belgrade and the central city in a metropolitan area is shown). In many different world metropolises. cases, the serviced area of operators with a signifi cant share of their operations inside the metropolitan area is larger. In these cases, where it was impossible to segregate Materials and Methods out the portion of interest, the population of the larger ser- vice area was used to standardise the data. A well-to-wheels (WTW) analysis is a systematic ap- proach for assessing energy consumption and GHG emis- CO2 Emissions from Transportation sions related to different fuels and vehicle propulsion con-

fi gurations. The whole WTW cycle is comprised of two This item did not require collection by itself, as CO2 independent stages. These include: I) a well-to-tank stage emissions are linked to energy consumption, which is al- (WTT), which includes the recovery or production of the ready available through the original data set. The conver- feedstock for the fuel, transportation and storage of the sion factor from joules of energy consumed to grams of energy source through conversion of the feedstock to the CO2 emitted depends on the type of fuel involved in the 638 Jovanovic M.M. energy generation. In the case of propulsion by means of Table 1. Conversion factors from fuel types to energy [30]. the internal combustion engine, this is a case of converting Fuel type Conversion factor the fuel consumed into emitted CO2. In the case of electric propulsion, however, additional information is required Motor spirit (petrol/gasoline) 34.69 MJ/l to account for the type of technology involved in power Automotive Distillate (diesel) 38.29 MJ/l generation, the quality of the fuel in the case of coal, and for electric transmission network losses. The table below LPG 26.26 MJ/l lists the conversion factors for fossil fuels (for propulsion Electric power 3.60 MJ/kWh via internal combustion engine) and for electric power ac- cording to the mix of generation plants (e.g., thermo, nu- clear, and hydro power) existing in the supply grids for the metropolitan areas included in this study. Conversion fac- for 12,539,000, for trolley 5,781,000, and for tors from fuel types to energy are given in Table 1 while urban rail (BG voz) 740,000. The load factor (ratio of pas- CO emissions of different fuel used are in Table 2. senger kilometres to available seat kilometres) for buses 2 was 32.7%, for trams 19.3%, for trolley buses 25.1%, and The data about average per capita emissions of CO2 from passenger transport in each of the cities/regions have for urban rail (BG voz) 35.1%. been calculated from the detailed energy data on private Private car vehicle kilometres data were derived from major transport studies: ‘Belgrade Transport Model’ [36] and public transport through standard grams of CO2 per MJ conversion factors. For electrical end use energy and ‘Study of the characteristics of transport demands, in electric public transport modes in different cities/ countries, reference was made to UN energy statistics showing the different contribution of various energy Table 2. Grams of CO2 per MJ of fuel used [30]. sources to electricity production (i.e., thermal, nuclear, Fuel/Grid CO emissions (g/MJ) hydro, geothermal). The data also showed the relative 2 contribution of different feedstock to the thermal power Petrol(gasoline), diesel 72 plants and the overall effi ciency of electrical energy LPG 65 production in the country [34]. This combination of data was used to ensure the correct multiplier for end use Electric power electrical energy and to calculate the kilograms of CO2 Canada 66 from end use electrical energy consumption by each of the transit systems in each city. USA 206 For the years 1960 and 1990 (for 41 world metropo- China 232 lises) we used Kenworthy and Laube’s 1999 International Japan 190 Sourcebook [30]; for 1995 (for 62 world cities) we used UITP Millennium Cities Database [31]; for 2005 (for 32 104 world cities) we used Newman and Kenworthy’s The End Belgium 110 of Automobile Dependence [33]. U.S. cities included are: Atlanta*, Chicago*, Denver*, Houston*, Los Angeles*, Denmark 278 New York*, Phoenix*, San Diego*, San Francisco*, and France 36 Washington*; Western European cities: Graz*, Athens, Vi- Germany (West) 184 enna*, Milan, Brussels*, Bologna, Copenhagen*, Rome, Helsinki*, Amsterdam, Lyon, Oslo*, Nantes, Barcelona, Netherlands 195 Paris, Madrid*, Marseilles, Stockholm*, Berlin*, Bern*, Sweden 11 Frankfurt*, Geneva*, Hamburg*, Zurich*, Dusseldorf*, London*, Munich*, Manchester*, Ruhr, Newcastle, Stutt- Switzerland 6 gart*, and Glasgow; Wealthy Asian cities: Osaka, Sapporo, United Kingdom 230 Tokyo, Hong Kong*, Singapore*, and Taipei; Developing 292 World metropolises: Manila, Bangkok, Mumbai, Chennai, Hong Kong K. Lumpur, Jakarta, Seoul, and Ho Chi Minh City; Aus- Indonesia 231 tralian cities: Sydney*, Melbourne*, Perth*, Brisbane*, Japan 190 and Adelaide; cities in transition: Prague*, Budapest, and Krakow; Chinese cities: Beijing, Shangai, and Guangzhou Korea (South) 146 (*cities included in dataset for Table 7). Malaysia 241 For urban public transport mobility in Belgrade (2011) we used data collected from public transport oper- Philippines 164 ators (24 hours/7 days per week) and statistical yearbooks Singapore 292 for Belgrade [35] for each mode: , trolley bus, , Thailand 260 and urban rail. VKT for different urban public transport modes in Belgrade for 2011 were: for buses 126,288,000, Serbia 207 Belgrade’s Urban Transport... 639 transport supply, effi ciency, and quality of the system of occurred in the outer and edge zones – with an increase mass public transport of passengers in Belgrade’ [37], plus of 87,000 inhabitants and 13.7 km2 of net-urbanized area surveys conducted by authorities (car occupancy was 1.31 (whereas the middle zone gained only 9,500, the central passengers [36, 37]). Private car-fl eet data were collected zone lost 22,000 and the CBD lost 16,191 inhabitants) from the Ministry of the Interior and major vehicle insur- (Table 3). ance companies. In short, the main characteristics of Belgrade’s spatial

CO2 emissions from urban transport were derived development are high levels of population density (9,500- directly from total energy fi gures (both private transport 12,000 inhabitants/km2 in its central and middle zone), and and public transport) using conversion factors for the CO2 a very high level of centralization (28.2%) of employees equivalent of each fuel type, and a different conversion for in the CBD (Table 4) [39]. This is fertile ground for each country’s electricity depending on the mix of fuels introducing high-capacity rapid rail systems used for generation. (light rail transit (LRT) or metro systems) [40]. Newman For comparative analysis of the different scenarios of and Kenworthy point out that long-term data from cities

Belgrade’s future urban transport CO2 emissions we used around the world show that there is a fundamental the mobility levels of metropolises in countries in transi- threshold of urban intensity (residents and jobs) of around tion and in West European metropolises from the Millen- 35 per hectare to support public transit [41] – a threshold nium Cities Database [31]. For the calculation of Pearson’s Belgrade evidently exceeds (Tables 3 and 4). correlation coeffi cient we used statistical SPSS software.

Belgrade’s Urban Transport CO2 Emissions from an International Perspective Belgrade’s Spatial Development

The degree of CO2 emissions in urban transport resulting Belgrade can be divided into four concentric zones: from the rapid increase in automobile passenger kilometres central, middle, outer, and edge (Tables 3 and 4, Fig. 1). (Tables 5 and 6) is, unfortunately, usually neglected [42]. In the last 20 years a distinctive feature of Belgrade has Previous years have seen growing evidence that in been the new, rapidly developing business district (NBD) many cities in developed countries passenger kilometres of , in the vicinity of and spatially inter-con- travelled and energy consumption in urban transport has nected with the Old City core (CBD) [39]. Hence, Bel- decoupled from GDP [7, 8]. In 1995-2005, for example, grade’s highly monocentric structure has become even automobile passenger kilometres travelled in the U.S. sta- more pronounced, since 28.2% of all (Master plan) work bilized at 18,000 pkm per capita, Australia at 12,000, Eu- places are concentrated in the traditional CBD with an ad- rope at 6,500, and wealthy Asian cities at 2,000 pkm/per ditional 7.4% in New Belgrade’s NBD (just across the riv- capita [33]. Nevertheless, differences in passenger kilo- er) (Tab. 4 and Fig. 1). metres travelled remained extremelly pronounced. It is evident that the average population density of the Both load factors and the degree of mobility of different continually built-up area (CBA) of Belgrade (consisting urban transport modes directly depend on: of central, middle, and outer zones) is rather high (7,419 – Income changes and economic development. 2 inhabitants/km ) and that during 2002-11 major changes – Transport infrastructure investments and the choice of transport technology. – Prices and economic instruments. – Interdependence of transport and urban form, and the infl uence of urban planning policy [43]. As Kenworthy points out: “Meaningful results can be obtained from energy use per passenger km because this takes into account vehicle loadings. It is also the only way to fairly compare public and private transport energy effi ciency.” [44]. Taking into account these different load factors of urban transport modes, comparative analysis of the indicators of energy consumption per passenger kilometre of urban transport in world metropolises is given in Table 8 [30, 43]. Taking into account these different load factors of urban transport modes, comparative analysis of the indicators of energy consumption per passenger kilometre of urban transport in world metropolises is given in Table 8 [30, 43]. Table 9 shows indicators of mobility (expressed in

passenger km/per capita) and CO2 emissions in urban transport (in kg/ per capita) of different world metropolises Fig. 1. Zones (and statistical circles) of Belgrade [38]. [42, 43]. 640 Jovanovic M.M.

Table 3. Spatial distribution of population and densities of Belgrade’s zones [38]. Net-urbanised area Population densities 2 Population 2 Zone (km ) (inhab./km ) year 2002 year 2010 year 2002 year 2011 year 2002 year 2011 CBD 3.640 3.640 50,447 43,697 13,841 11,989 298,559 Central zone 24.754 24.825 276,635 12,061 11,143 23,61% 533,401 Middle zone 57.064 57.665 542,859 9,347 9,413 42,18% 257,657 Outer zone 65.059 71.184 314,319 3,960 4,415 20,38% 174,810 Edge zone 79.935 87.526 205,052 2,186 2,342 13,82% Master plan (MP) 226.812 241.20 1,264,427 1,338,865 5,575 5,551 Continuously built-up area 146.877 153.674 1,089,617 1,133,813 7,419 7,378 (CBA) Source: author’s calculation

Table 4. Share of jobs of old CBD and New Belgrade’s NBD (new business district) of all Belgrade’s Master Plan area jobs in 2002 (in %) [39]. Workplaces Net-urbanised % share of jobs % share of jobs Area Job densities (in %) area (km2) (in MP) (in CBA) CBD - Old Belgrade 28.2 3.640 33,457 28.20 29.69 NBD - New Belgrade 7.4 4.730 6,738 7.41 7.76 Total 35.6 8.370 18,379 35.61 37.45

The high value of Pearson’s correlation coeffi cient the highest CO2 emissions and energy consumption per (0.964) for automobile passenger kilometres per capita and capita ever registered in urban transport [42, 43]. total CO2 emissions of urban transport (for our sample of At the same time, urban transport CO2 emissions in de- 36 metropolises) illustrates the importance of automobile veloping world metropolises is almost insignifi cant today. mobility in total CO2 emissions in urban transport (Fig. 2). Their CO2 emission is 8.7 times lower than that of U.S. cit- Thus, it is apparent that the increase in the effi ciency ies. However, due to the fact their populations will be four of motor vehicle fuel consumption – a thesis frequently times larger than the population of the developed world promoted by supporters of an auto-dependent transport metropolises by 2025 (doubling within 2000-25 from 735 policy, such as Dunn [45] – does not decrease CO2 million to 1.4 billion [46]), a further increase in motor ve- emissions and save energy in urban transport. The most hicle use in developing countries will have devastating ef- important role in this process is clearly played by: a) the fects on global CO2 emissions. If the developing metropo- rapid rise in level of mobility and b) the sharply increasing lises follow the example of auto-dependent, low-density share of automobiles used in urban transport. suburban development, unforeseeable consequences in

These are the main reasons why U.S. cities, with their the succeeding decades will ensue, with CO2 emissions in highest level of motorized mobility in the world, also have urban transport 11 times higher.

Table 5. Passenger kilometres per capita in 24 cities (1960 and 1990) [30]. Automobile Public urban transport Cities (pkm / per capita) (pkm / per capita) 1960 1990 1960 1990 USA* 8,289 14,981 666 620 Australia 5,489 10,797 1,409 882 Western Europe 2,503 6,602 1,472 1,895

* data for 1960 are not available for Washington, Detroit, or Houston Belgrade’s Urban Transport... 641

Table 6. Urban transport in 63 cities (in passenger kilometres) (1995) [31]. Private transport Urban public transport Urban transport - total Urban public transport (total) Cities (automobile + motorcycle) share in total pkm (pkm) (pkm) (pkm) (%) USA 18,743 18,200 544 2.9 W. Europe 7,804 6,321 1,483 19.0 wealthy Asian 7,340 3,971 3,369 45.9 developing c. 4,303 2,539 1,764 41.0 China 2,451 1,103 1,348 55.0 in transition 6,225 2,926 3,299 53.0 Belgrade* 6,066 1,502 4,563 75.2 * author’s calculation for Belgrade for 2011

Table 7. Urban transport passenger kilometres per capita in 32 cities (1995 and 2005) [33]. Cities Automobile (pkm / per capita) Public urban transport (pkm / per capita) Total transport (pkm / per capita) 1995 2005 1995 2005 1995 2005 USA 18,155 18,703 496 569 18,867 19,542 Australia 12,114 12,447 967 1,077 13,487 13,843 Europe 6,424 6,789 1,700 2,080 8,856 9,838 wealthy Asian 1,971 1,971 3,175 3,778 5,603 6,406 Prague 4,343 7,044 4,307 5,183 9,243 12,519

In short, it is obvious that a major decrease of CO2 transport today. Unlike metropolises of Eastern European emissions of Belgrade urban transport are to be made in countries [47], in Belgrade (due to the economic crisis) stopping its further increase in automobile mobility. neither the level of private motorization (300 cars per 1,000 people), nor automobile passenger kilometres have changed much during the last 15 years (the only change Results and Discussion being that old vehicles have been replaced by second- hand cars imported from Western Europe). Nevertheless,

Different Scenarios for Belgrade’s Future Urban although the level of automobile CO2 emissions in Transport CO2 Emissions Belgrade is very low (228 CO2 kg/per capita, due to the low volume of automobile passenger kilometres: 1,502 Compared to other world metropolises, Belgrade pkm), the fact must not be overlooked that automobile has a relatively low level of CO2 emissions in urban mobility is of major importance to total level of energy

Table 8. Energy consumption of urban transport in 63 cities (in MJ/passenger km) (1995) [31]. Private transport Metro Bus Tram Energy use ratio of different transport modes Cities (automobile + (MJ/ (MJ/pkm) (MJ/pkm) motorcycle) (MJ/pkm) pkm) Private tr. / Bus Bus / Metro Private tr. / Metro USA 3.25 2.85 0.99 1.65 1.1 1.7 1.97 W. Europe 2.49 1.17 0.72 0.48 2.1 2.4 5.2 wealthy Asian 2.33 0.84 0.36 0.19 2.9 4.4 12.3 developing 1.78 0.66 - 0.46 2.7 1.4 3.9 China 1.69 0.26 - 0.05 6.5 5.2 33.8 in transition 2.35 0.56 0.74 0.21 4.2 2.7 11.2 Belgrade* 2.10 0.44 0.375 0.16** 4.8 2.75* 13.1* * author’s calculation for Belgrade for 2011 **Urban rail (BG voz) 642 Jovanovic M.M.

Table 9. Urban transport CO2 emissions (in kg/ per capita) and average daily motorized mobility in 63 cities (in pkm / per capita) (1995) [31].

Average daily motorized Daily private mobility Urban transport CO2 mobility (automobile + motorcycle) emissions (in kg)

Cities Ratio world Ratio world Private mobility Ratio world pkm/per metropolises/ pkm/per metropolises/ share in pkm/per CO2 kg /per metropolises/ capita USA cities capita USA cities capita capita Belgrade (=1) (=1) (%) (=1) USA 51.3 1 49.9 1 97.2 4,405 11.28 W. Europe 21.4 2.4 17.3 2.9 80.8 1,269 3.25 wealthy Asian 20.1 2.55 10.9 4.6 54.2 825 2.11 developing c. 11.8 4.36 7.0 7.1 59.3 509 1.30 China 6.7 7.65 3.0 16.6 44.8 213 0.54 in transition 17.1 3.01 8.0 6.2 46.8 694 1.78 Belgrade* 16.6 3.09 4.1 12.2 24.8 390.6 1 * author’s calculation for Belgrade for 2011

consumption in urban transport, and it can change in 2005 energy consumption of Prague’s urban transport surprisingly quickly. (20,403 MJ/person) surpassed by 22% the level of the In Prague, for example, although the city is strongly urban transport energy consumption of West European public-transport oriented with annual transit boarding metropolises in 1995 (16,793 MJ/person). per capita ever-rising and among the highest in the world In Table 10 we gave different scenarios for Belgrade’s

[33] (in 1995-2005 automobile passenger kilometres rose future urban transport CO2 emissions: a) current CO2 extremely quickly – from 4,343.5 to 7,044.5 passenger emissions, b) CO2 emissions when Belgrade reaches the kilometres per capita, or more than 62%) [48]. Hence, automobile mobility level of cities in countries in transi-

Fig. 2. Correlation between automobile mobility and CO2 emissions in urban transport. Belgrade’s Urban Transport... 643

Table 10. Different scenarios of Belgrade’s future urban transport CO2 emissions [35]. Urban Public Automobile Urban Public Total Automobile Total Transport (CO kg /per Transport (CO kg /per (pkm) (pkm) 2 2 (pkm) capita) (CO2 kg / per capita) capita) Belgrade today 1,502 4,563 6,066 227.7 162.9 390.6 Belgrade – 2,907 4,563 7,470 491.9 162.9 654.8 “East EU” scenario Belgrade – “West 6,202 4,563 10,765 1,128.6 162.9 1291.5 EU” scenario Source: author’s calculation according to [35]

tion, and c) CO2 emissions when Belgrade reaches the au- Unfortunately, the public transport strategy has con- tomobile mobility level of cities in Western Europe. centrated on buses, which are incapable of accommodat-

Belgrade’s urban transport CO2 emissions will be 1.8 ing the rapidly rising transport demand, and on the intro- times higher when the city reaches the automobile mobil- duction of parking zones in the central area of the city. ity level of metropolises in countries in transition recorded Although express buses have been strongly promot- in 1995 (Tables 8 and 9). When the automobile mobility ed [32], Belgrade is completely unsuitable for this type level of metropolises in West European countries recorded of transport strategy (especially in its central zone) due to in 1995 is reached (Tables 8 and 9), it will be 3.3 times a) its spatial structure and b) its narrow, inadequate street higher. Hence, traffi c limitation strategies (like those ap- network [51]. plied in Singapore, Hong Kong, London, etc.) are of the The recent construction of an inner semi-ring road utmost importance. and additional bridges over the River has been done Belgrade’s urban public transport share in total urban without an accompanying strategy of land-use changes transport CO2 emissions (approximately 41.7%) is the and without considering infrastructure-induced mobility highest in our sample of cities. Even urban public trans- (so-called hidden transport demand [52]). Hence, these port modes that use electricity (trams, trolleys, urban rail; huge investments are merely a temporary antidote, and not due to extremely high dependency on coal for electricity a long-lasting, valid solution. production) are causing serious negative environmental It is usually completely overlooked that with its strong effects [49, 50]. But the most important fact is that due public transport (bus) orientation, insuffi cient street ca- to its extremely high share of regular buses, urban public pacities (about 67% of the primary urban street network transport of Belgrade is not as CO2-effi cient as it should are single lane per direction [53]), as well as its frequent be (Tables 11 and 12). If urban form (high population den- and heavy road congestions, Belgrade has for a very long sities and concentration of jobs in the CBD) supports rail time been ready not only for a much stricter private mo- use, its CO2 emissions are much lower than emissions of tor vehicle limitation strategy, but also for a rail (metro or regular buses; even the old Russian urban rail proved to LRT) system with completely separated, exclusive right have 4.5 times lower CO2 emissions, while recently im- of way [42, 53]. ported and tested Swiss (Flirt) urban trains have even 12.6 As Vuchic points out, a transit mode is defi ned by times lower CO2 emissions than buses in Belgrade. its three basic characteristics: a) right-of-way (ROW)

Table 11. Urban public transport share in total urban transport CO2 emissions (in %) (1995) [35]. Urban transport energy consumption (MJ/per capita) Urban public transport share in Total urban Cities Total Private (automobile + motorcycle) Urban public transport transport CO2 (kg CO2/per capita) (kg CO2/per capita) (kg CO2/per capita) emission(in %) USA 4,405 4,322 83 1.9 W. Europe 1,269 688 162 10.6 wealthy Asian 825 688 162 19.7 developing c. 509 441 96 18.8 China 213 180 33 15.5 in transition 694 480 214 30.8 Belgrade* 390.6 227.7 162.9 41.7 * author’s calculation for Belgrade for 2011 644 Jovanovic M.M.

Table 12. Belgrade’s urban public transport CO2 emissions for – Implements a more decisive strategy of limiting private 2011 (% share). vehicles use, while its level of car passenger km (PKT) is still relatively low (as was done in wealthy Asian Urban rail Bus Tram (BG voz) metropolises at a similar stage of development). – Does not try to solve its transport problems only % share 77.3 % 16.8 % 3.5 % 2.4 % by building a network of urban road infrastructure Source: author’s calculation (bridges and ring roads). – Continues to provide priority movement for buses (a dominant form of public transport), while … – Strongly orienting itself toward the development category, b) system technology, and c) type of service. of urban rail systems (metro or LRT) with separate, Transit modes vary with each of these characteristics. exclusive tracks that are completely immune to traffi c Belgrade has struggled with the strategic decision of congestion on urban streets [38]. choosing between a metro, light rail, or express-bus In short, if Belgrade adopts a transport and spatial option; however, contrary to the common belief that development strategy like the one wealthy Asian me- technology mostly determines modal characteristics, the tropolises applied at a similar stage of development [43, ROW category has a major infl uence on both performance 56], there is a good chance that its total urban transport and costs of modes [40]. CO2 emissions will stop at a reasonable level of around In past decades different rail proposals have substitut- 700-800 kg CO /per capita. ed each other, from metro (in 1958, 1968, 1976, 1982, and 2 2004), to light rail (in 2006) [54]. It is usually stressed that for the construction of a new urban rail system, more than Conclusions fi ve million people and a GDP per capita above US$ 1,800 are needed for such a project to be economically viable It is evident that the strongly promoted thesis that sig- [55]. But, as Vuchic rightly points out, it is not such a sim- nifi cant reductions of CO2 emissions in the sphere of ur- ple, straightforward relationship [40], since high popula- ban transport could be made by increasing the effi ciency tion densities and the high level of job concentration in the of motor vehicles has not provided the planned results. CBD are even more important. This is clearly proven in the huge CO2 emissions in the In this respect, especially encouraging was the recent urban transport of U.S. cities. introduction (2011) of BG voz, a 25 km line of urban rail The most important role in this process is defi nitely system (with 7 km running through tunnels under the played by a) the dramatically increasing level of personal central part of the city at 15-minute intervals during rush mobility and b) the sharp rise of automobile use in urban hours) that serves the city of Belgrade. This fi rst urban transport. rail line runs through six Belgrade municipalities: , These are the main reasons why U.S. cities, which Novi Beograd, , Vračar, , and Pal- have the highest level of motorized mobility and use of ilula, with over 700,000 inhabitants in total (the residential automobiles in the world, also have the highest level of areas of these municipalities through which the line runs CO2 emissions in urban transport ever recorded. have approximately 200,000 inhabitants). If the metropolises of developing countries follow the In short, a variety of measures can counter rising CO 2 example of the auto-dependent, low-density suburban de- in the urban transport sector. The most obvious choice for velopment of U.S. cities, as imposed by globalization, Belgrade is: a) measures that limit the use of motor vehi- there will be unforeseeable consequences in the succeed- cles and promote improvement of their technical effi cien- ing decades as it will result in 11-times higher CO2 emis- cy, b) the promotion of public transport, walking, and cy- sions in their urban transport in 2025 (compared to 2000). cling, and c) spatial planning measures aimed at reducing Obviously, Belgrade is now at a major crossroads. Al- the total demand for transport in the city. though the level of automobile CO emissions in Belgrade Of great importance here are precisely defi ned 2 is still very low (228 CO2 kg/per capita, due to the low vol- phases of implementation of these urban transport policy ume of automobile passenger kilometres: 1,502 pkm), the measures. The phase in which restrictive instruments fact must not be overlooked that automobile mobility is of on private transport and measures for the promotion of major importance to the total level of energy consumption urban public transport are introduced is crucial. While the in urban transport, and it can change surprisingly quickly. degree of private car use is still relatively modest, it is very Only if it adopts a transport and spatial development strat- likely that the applied package of measures will obtain the egy similar to that applied by wealthy Asian metropolises desired results. at a similar stage of development is there a very high pos- In this context it can be concluded, as Jovanović sibility that its total urban transport CO2 emissions will [38] points out, that Belgrade can prevent a dramatic stop at a reasonable level of around 700-800 kg CO /per increase in CO emissions (and mitigate the negative local 2 2 capita. environmental effects of traffi c congestion, traffi c acci- dents, and local air pollution) only if it: Belgrade’s Urban Transport... 645

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