Pol. J. Environ. Stud. Vol. 25, No. 2 (2016), 635-646 DOI: 10.15244/pjoes/61259 Original Research Belgrade’s Urban Transport CO2 Emissions from an International Perspective Miomir M. Jovanovic Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, Belgrade, Serbia Received: 5 June 2015 Accepted: 4 January 2016 Abstract Focusing on the implementation of increas ingly strict energy and emission standards, the effect of the rapid increase in the use of motor vehicles on the degree of air pollution and energy consumption is com- pletely neglected. All recent technological improvements and changes in the transport sector: sub stitution of fuels, increased use of diesel vehicles, direct gasoline injection, supercharg ing, electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, etc., cannot offset massive growth in traffi c, combined with signifi cantly heavier, more powerful, more luxurious and thus more fuel-consuming vehicles. Hence, in this paper we focused on the carbon emis- sions and energy consumption of urban transport in Belgrade from an international perspective. Although the level of automobile CO2 emissions in Belgrade is still very low at 228 CO2 kg/per capita, due to the low volume of automobile passenger kilometres (1,502 pkm), the fact must not be overlooked that automobile mobility is of major importance to the total level of energy consumption in urban transport, and this can change surprisingly quickly. Only if Belgrade adopts transport and spatial development strategies similar to those applied by wealthy Asian metropolises at a similar stage of development is there high probability that its total urban transport CO2 emissions will stop at a reasonable level of around 700-800 kg CO2/per capita. Belgrade can prevent a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions and energy consumption (and mitigate the negative local environmental effects of traffi c congestion, traffi c accidents, and air pollution), only if it: 1. Implements a more decisive strategy to limit private vehicle use while its level of car passenger km (PKT) is still relatively low. 2. Does not try to solve its transport problems only by trying to build urban road infrastructure (bridg- es and ring roads). 3. Concentrates on more CO2 and energy-effi cient urban transport systems, while at the same time …. 4. Developing urban rail systems (metro or LRT) with exclusive tracks that are immune to traffi c congestion on urban streets. Keywords: urban transport, carbon emissions, Belgrade, world metropolises *e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] 636 Jovanovic M.M. Introduction in vehicle comfort that have resulted in signifi cantly heavier, more powerful, more luxurious, and thus more In 2009 transport became the highest single energy- fuel consuming vehicles [9, 11]. Actually, an important consuming human activity: it was responsible for 27.3% factor that has accelerated the increase in transport energy of world energy-consumption (compared to 23% in 1973) use and carbon emissions is the gradual growth in size, [1]. weight, and power of passenger vehicles – especially in the Since transport predominantly (95%) relies on a sin- industrial ized world. For example, the U.S. Environmental gle fossil resource – petroleum, this sector is responsible Protection Agency has con cluded that the U.S. new light- for 24% of world energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) duty vehicle (LDV) fl eet fuel economy in 2005 would emissions, with about three-quarters produced by road ve- have been 24% lower had the fl eet remained at the weight hicles. and perfor mance distribution it had in 1987. Instead, over Moreover, transport activity is expected to grow ro- that time period it became 27% heavier and 30% faster in bustly over the next several decades, and by 2030 total 0-60 mph (0-97 km/h) time, and achieved 5% poorer fuel carbon emissions are projected to be about 80% higher economy [12]. than current levels, doubling by 2050 [2-4]. Also, since increased fuel effi ciency, in fact, effectively The Stern review expects transport to be one of the decreases the unit cost of driving, energy effectiveness and fastest growing sectors in the future and among the last reduced CO2 emissions are se riously offset by increased sectors to bring its emissions down to below current lev- demand for car travel. The latest research clearly shows els [5]. that at least 60% of the potential energy savings from There are two main factors leading to such a huge in- effi ciency im provements is lost due to increased driving, which is called the “rebound effect” [13]. crease in transport CO2 emissions: a) Dependency on the internal combustion engine, Hence, the overall picture shows only a modest with no wide-scale economically viable alternative improvement in fuel consumption and carbon emissions available in the coming decades. of the average vehicle [14]. b) A sharp increase in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), Electric (and also hybrid) vehicles have been strongly which seems to be an inherent feature of economic promoted lately due to the fact that they have minor growth [6], although in previous years there has been GHG emissions related to the vehicle technol ogy it- growing evidence that in many cities (especially in self, but their total GHG emissions are rather signifi cant developed countries) VKT has decoupled from GDP when the elec tricity they use has been produced in coal [7, 8]. power plants. Hence their total carbon footprint when fuel This technological and economic dependency presents production is included is actually very high [4]. This is of a challenging energy effi ciency issue. major signifi cance since two thirds of global electricity is GHG emissions can be decomposed into: produced from fossil fuels [15]. 1) Carbon intensity Actually, worldwide travel studies have shown that 2) Energy effi ciency the average time budget for travel is roughly constant 3) Total transport demand [4] worldwide, with the relative speed of trav el determining Stern review underline that transport is one of the most distances travelled yearly [16]. As incomes have ris en, expensive sectors to cut emissions from, because the low travellers have shifted to faster – and more carbon and carbon technologies tend to be expensive and the welfare energy-intensive – modes [2]. costs of reducing demand for travel are high. Transport Transport fuel use worldwide is currently dominated is also expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors by petroleum, with more than 95% of fuel being either in the future. For these two reasons, studies point out gasoline or distillate fuels such as diesel, kerosene, or that transport will be among the last sectors to bring its jet fuel. A new analysis of fuel costs indicates that in the emissions down below current levels [5]. near term (and with oil prices around USD 60/bbl), most All recent technological improvements and changes in alternative fuels will be more expensive than gasoline or the (road) transport sector (substitution of fuels through diesel [17]. While oil extraction is expected to peak and increased use of diesel vehicles, direct gasoline injection, decline within this decade [18], the shortfall will likely supercharging, electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, etc.) be partially compensated for by non-conventional oil cannot offset massive growth in traffi c combined with (such as tar sands) and oth er fossil resources such as gas- growing demand for com fort (air conditioning, etc.), to-liquids and coal-to-liquids. On average, these fuels are which is energy intensive [9]. more energy- and carbon-intensive than oil, caused by For example, there is a reported continuous downward upstream emis sions in the supply chain [19]. trend of fuel con sumption due to the technological Finally, worldwide the transport sector’s energy and innovations introduced in modern passenger cars, as well CO2 trends are strongly linked to rising population and as certain market shifts toward more fuel-effi cient (diesel) incomes. Another crucial aspect of the global transport vehi cles [10]. Nevertheless, a large part of this benefi t in system is that much of the world is not yet motorized (due to low in comes). The majority of the world’s population fuel consump tion and CO2 emissions was counterbalanced by various factors, amongst which are stricter safety does not have access to person al vehicles, and many do regulations, consumer demands, and improvements not even have access to motorized public transport of Belgrade’s Urban Transport... 637 any sort. As incomes in the developing nations grow, fuel, and the subsequent transportation, storage, and dis- transport will grow rapidly. When these areas develop and tribution of the fuel to the vehicle tank, and II) a tank-to- respective populations’ incomes rise, the prospects for vast wheels stage (TTW), which refers to the vehicle operation expansion of motorization and increase in fossil fuel use activities throughout its lifetime [24-28]. Regarding en- and GHG emissions is very real [2]. And these prospects ergy consumption and GHG emissions, the WTT part of are exacerbated by evidence that the most attractive form the whole life cycle represents only about 15% of WTW of transport for most people as their incomes rise is the total impact [29]. personal motorized vehicle, which is seen as a status In our study we used only TTW because: symbol as well as being faster, more fl exible, more conve- a) Although the entire WTW cycle includes WTT (which nient, and more comfort able than public transport. covers 15% of the whole WTW cycle), including WTT If the aim is to achieve ambitious energy consumption in calculations on the level of world metropolises is too and GHG reduc tion for transport within the next few diffi cult to perform (it is much easier to perform this decades, policies will have to be more determined: they kind of analysis/study on the national level).