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Klimatološka Analiza

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Klimatološka Analiza KLIMATOLOŠKA ANALIZA GODINE FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE ZAVOD BOSNE HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI FEDERALNI www.fhmzbih.gov.ba FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE BOSNA I HERCEGOVINA FEDERACIJA BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD KLIMATOLOŠKA ANALIZA GODINE 2015 Sarajevo, februar 2016. 2015 - godina 1 FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE Srednje godišnje temperature zraka u 2015. godini, bile su znatno iznad standardne normalne vrijednosti (1961.-1990.godina) na čitavom posmatranom prostoru Bosne i Hercegovine, i kretale su se između 10,3 oC u Bugojnu i 16,2 oC u Mostaru. Na planinskim područjima srednje temperature zraka kretale su se od 2,7 oC na Bjelašnici do 8,6 oC na Ivan Sedlu. Temperaturna odstupanja kretala su se u rasponu od 1,0 oC u Jajcu do 2,3 oC u Gradačcu. Analiza raspodjele percentila1 temperature je pokazala da temperaturne prilike u 2015. godini svrstavamo u kategoriju ekstremno toplo. ODSTUPANJA SREDNJE TEMPERATURE ZRAKA (OC) U ODNOSU NA KLIMATOLOŠKU NORMALU (1961-1990) I PRIPADAJUĆI PERCENTILI STANICA ANOMALIJA PERCENTIL STANICA ANOMALIJA PERCENTIL Bihać 1,6 100 Livno 1,7 100 Bjelašnica 1,4 100 Mostar 1,7 100 Bugojno 1,5 100 Neum 1,7 100 Drvar 1,4 100 Sanski Most 1,4 100 Gradačac 2,3 100 Sarajevo 1,3 100 Ivan Sedlo 1,3 100 Stolac 1,4 100 Jajce 1,0 99 Tuzla 1,8 100 Kalesija 1,3 99 Zenica 1,7 100 Tabela 1: Odstupanje srednje godišnje temperature zraka u odnosu na klimatološku standardnu normalu i pripadajući percentili Najniža dnevna temperatura zraka izmjerena je u Kalesiji od –20,7 oC (01.01.), a na planinskim područjima najniža temperatura od -19,7 (01.01.) izmjerena je na Bjelašnici. Najniža srednja mjesečna temperatura u 2015. godini registrovana je u decembru na MS Bugojno od -1,3 oC. Na planinskim predjelima najniža srednja mjesečna temperatura iznosila je u februaru na Bjelašnici -6,9 oC. Najviša dnevna temperatura zraka od 41,9 oC (22. jula) izmjerena je u Mostaru. Na planinskim područjima najviša dnevna temperatura izmjerena je na MS Ivan Sedlo od 32,8 oC (19.07.). Najviša srednja mjesečna temperatura zraka od 29,5 oC zabilježena je u julu na MS Mostar. Na planinskim predjelima najviša srednja mjesečna temperatura zraka registrovana je na MS Ivan Sedlo u julu od 19,7 oC. Tabela 2: Kvalifikacija mjeseci u 2015. godini po kategorijama standardne devijacije 1 TEMPERATURE PERCENTILI PADAVINE PERCENTILI ekstremno hladno < 2 ekstremno sušno < 2 vrlo hladno 2-9 vrlo sušno 2-9 hladno 10-25 sušno 10-25 normalno 26-74 normalno 26-74 toplo 75-90 kišno 75-90 vrlo toplo 91-98 vrlo kišno 91-98 ekstremno toplo >98 ekstremno kišno >98 2015 - godina 2 FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE Ekstremne klimatske anomalije temperature zraka (< 2 i > 98 percentila) po mjesecima i godišnjim dobima Ekstremno topli mjeseci: - juni (Bugojno, Kalesija, Gradačac, Livno, Mostar, i Zenica) - juli (Bihać, Bjelašnica, Bugojno, Drvar, Gradačac, Ivan Sedlo, Jajce, Kalesija, Livno, Mostar, Neum, Sarajevo, Sanski Most, Stolac, Tuzla i Zenica) - august (Bihać, Bjelašnica, Bugojno, Drvar, Gradačac, Ivan Sedlo, Jajce, Kalesija, Livno, Neum, Sarajevo, Sanski Most, Stolac, Tuzla i Zenica) - novembar (Bjelašnica) - decembar (Bjelašnica) Ekstremno hladni mjeseci: - nisu zabilježeni. Ekstremno topla godišnja doba: - ljeto (Bihać, Bjelašnica, Bugojno, Drvar, Gradačac, Ivan Sedlo, Jajce, Kalesija, Livno, Mostar, Neum, Sarajevo, Sanski Most, Stolac, Tuzla i Zenica) Ekstremno hladna godišnja doba: - nisu zabilježena Najviše mraznih dana2 u 2015. godini zabilježeno je u Bugojnu (113) i Drvaru (107), a na planinskim područjima na Bjelašnici (166) i na Ivan Sedlu (116). Istovremeno na MS Mostar registrovano je osam mraznih dana. Broj mraznih dana u 2015. godini bio je znatno ispod višegodišnjeg prosjeka za period 1961.-1990. godine. Hladni dani3 zabilježeni su na većini meteoroloških stanica. Najviše hladnih dana registrovano je u Bugojnu (15). Na planinskim područjima broj hladnih dana kretao se između 32 u Ivan Sedlu do 112 dana na Bjelašnici. Mrazni dani Hladni dani Studeni dani Topli dani Vreli dani 1961.- 1961.- 1961.- 1961.- 1961.- STANICA 2015. 2015. 2015. 2015. 2015. 1990. 1990. 1990. 1990. 1990. Sarajevo 94 93 12 26 1 9 99 65 56 14 Mostar 8 22 0 2 0 0,1 131 124 86 60 Bihać 63 88 4 22 1 8 102 74 53 19 Tuzla 84 94 1 21 2 8 105 79 57 19 Bjelašnica 166 195 112 126 38 43 0 0 0 0 Tabela 3: Broj dana s određenim vrijednostima maksimalne i minimalne temperature zraka Topli dani4 u 2015. godini nisu zabilježeni samo na MS Bjelašnica. Broj toplih dana kretao se između 86 u Livnu do 131 na MS Mostar. Na Ivan Sedlu bilo je 58 toplih dana. Na svim stanicama registrovano je znatno više toplih dana od višegodišnjeg prosjeka. Broj vrelih dana5 kretao se od 17 na Ivan Sedlu do 86 u Mostaru. Najveće odstupanje broja vrelih dana zabilježeno je na MS Zenica. U Zenici je tokom 2015. godine zabilježeno 77 vrelih dana, što je za 51 dan više od prosječnog broja dana za normalni klimatološki niz (1961.- 1990.). 2 Mrazni dan - (minimalna temperatura < 0,0 oC) 3 Hladni dan – (maksimalna temperatura < 0,0 oC) 4 Topli dani – (maksimalna temperatura ≥ 25,0 oC) 5 Vreli dani – (maksimalna temperatura ≥ 25,0 oC) 2015 - godina 3 FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE Karta 1: Prostorna raspodjela srednje mjesečne temperature (oC) 2015. godine Karta 2: Odstupanje srednje mjesečne temperature (oC) od prosječne temperature u 2015. godini 2015 - godina 4 FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE Karta 3: Prostorna raspodjela srednje mjesečne temperature za 2015. godinu metodom percentila Dosadašnji Novi apsolutni STANICE apsolutni datum datum Δ maksimum OC maksimum OC Sarajevo 37,7 08.09.1946. 38,0 18.09.2015. 0,3 Tuzla 37,0 06.09.2008. 38,2 18.09.2015. 1,2 Zenica 37,5 11.09.2011. 40,9 18.09.2015. 3,4 Gradačac 37,2 07.09.2008. 37,5 18.09.2015. 0,3 Ivan Sedlo 31.7 07.09.2008. 32,4 18.09.2015. 1,7 Jajce 37,0 15.09.1987. 37,8 18.09.2015. 0,8 Bjelašnica 21,0 02.09.1956. 21,0 18.09.2015. 0,0 Bihać 25,6 11.11.1977. 26,6 09.11.2015. 1,0 Drvar 25,2 01.11.1989. 26,8 12.11.2015. 1,4 Sanski Most 25,7 05.11.2012. 26,4 09.11.2015. 0,7 Tabela 4: Novi apsolutni maksimumi izmjereni 2015. godine 2015 - godina 5 FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE o C S A R A J E V O 35,0 25,0 15,0 5,0 -5,0 -15,0 1.1. 19.1. 6.2. 24.2. 13.3. 31.3. 18.4. 6.5. 24.5. 11.6. 29.6. 17.7. 4.8. 22.8. 9.9. 27.9. 15.10. 2.11. 20.11. 8.12. 26.12. SRED. st+2stdev st+stdev st-stdev st-2stdev 2015 o C M O S T A R 45,0 35,0 25,0 15,0 5,0 -5,0 1.1. 19.1. 6.2. 24.2. 13.3. 31.3. 18.4. 6.5. 24.5. 11.6. 29.6. 17.7. 4.8. 22.8. 9.9. 27.9. 15.10. 2.11. 20.11. 8.12. 26.12. SRED. st+2stdev st+stdev st-stdev st-2stdev 2015 o C B I H A Ć 35,0 25,0 15,0 5,0 -5,0 -15,0 1.1. 19.1. 6.2. 24.2. 13.3. 31.3. 18.4. 6.5. 24.5. 11.6. 29.6. 17.7. 4.8. 22.8. 9.9. 27.9. 15.10. 2.11. 20.11. 8.12. 26.12. SRED. st+2stdev st+stdev st-stdev st-2stdev 2015 o C T U Z L A 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 -10,0 -20,0 1.1. 19.1. 6.2. 24.2. 13.3. 31.3. 18.4. 6.5. 24.5. 11.6. 29.6. 17.7. 4.8. 22.8. 9.9. 27.9. 15.10. 2.11. 20.11. 8.12. 26.12. SRED. st+2stdev st+stdev st-stdev st-2stdev 2015 Graf 1 – 4 Godišnji hod srednje dnevne temperature zraka (oC) u 2015. godini 2015 - godina 6 FEDERALNI HIDROMETEOROLOŠKI ZAVOD BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE o o C S A R A J E V O C M O S T A R 35,0 25,0 30,0 20,0 25,0 15,0 20,0 10,0 15,0 5,0 10,0 0,0 5,0 -5,0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0,0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 anomalija 2015 anomalija 2015 o o C B I H A Ć C T U Z L A 30,0 25,0 25,0 20,0 20,0 15,0 15,0 10,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 5,0 -5,0 0,0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 anomalija 2015 anomalija 2015 o o Z E N I C A C S A N S K I M O S T C 30,0 25,0 25,0 20,0 20,0 15,0 15,0 10,0 10,0 5,0 5,0 0,0 0,0 -5,0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 anomalija 2015 anomalija 2015 o o C B U G O J N O C D R V A R 25,0 25,0 20,0 20,0 15,0 15,0 10,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 5,0 -5,0 0,0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 anomalija 2015 anomalija 2015 Graf 5 – 12 Mjesečni hod srednje temperature zraka i mjesečne anomalije u 2015.
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