UNLocK Liberia Montserrado and Nimba Counties Special Report January 2010 - January 2012 Founded in 1957, the Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies 55th Anniversary 1957-2012 and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright © 2012 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Produced in partnership with Liberia Democracy Watch UNLocK Reports Series Editors Kendall Lawrence Nate Haken Report Written by Tierney Anderson Samantha Levine The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CULRR1207 (Version 06H) Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org www.fundforpeace.org 2 The Fund for Peace UNLocK Liberia Montserrado and Nimba Counties Introduction The year 2011 was an illuminating towards a more functional democracy. Methodology 4 period with respect to pressures and However, despite these gains, there is still National Level Analysis 5 resilience in Liberia. Early in the year, Liberia much work to be done. For example, there is experienced significant social pressures from no recent data on paved roads in Liberia but, Indicator Trends 7 abroad as neighboring Cote d’Ivoire as of 2007, Liberia had the second lowest Montserrado County Report 9 descended into a major political crisis number of motor vehicles per capita, tied Nimba County Report 11 sending thousands of refugees into Nimba with Somalia, according to the World Bank Looking Ahead 14 and Grand Gedeh counties. Then, internally, Development indicators. Electrical power Liberia experienced heightened political consumption per capita was the 187th lowest About The Fund for Peace 15 pressure as the election season peaked in in the world, despite the fact that the country About Liberia Democracy Watch 15 November. Despite this dangerous has a population of less than 4 million confluence of conflict drivers and triggers, people. Even in the capital city of Monrovia, there were no major outbreaks of violence where a third of the country’s population during the year. Liberia was able to weather lives, the electrical grid has not been repaired external shocks and internal pressure, and people who can afford them use private reinforcing the notion that the country has generators. come a long way since 2004. This report takes a look at Nimba and Montserrado The inability of the government to provide counties within the broader national context, adequate public services throughout the in terms of pressures and resilience country remains a serious shortcoming and throughout 2011 and beyond. It draws on source of tension. In November 2011, data generated by local civil society President Johnson Sirleaf was granted networks, from automated content analysis another six-year term to consolidate human data (from a sample of 28,634 news articles), security and development in the country. To and a qualitative review of the data, informed a degree, the state of Liberia appears able to by field visits and desktop research. weather shocks and pressures, based on the experience of 2011. However, looking ahead, It has now been almost ten years since the if the government does not better manage war ended in 2004. And while Liberia has expectations and service delivery, the risk of made strides forward in rebuilding since conflict could escalate once again. then, progress has been slow. Perhaps most Particularly if the price of commodities like significantly, the Liberian government, under rice and charcoal continue to rise, and state the leadership of President Ellen Johnson agencies are perceived to be corrupt, there is Sirleaf, has focused on the long process of the strong possibility that ethnic groups will repairing the country’s shattered institutions compete for influence and resources. although there remain significant gaps in Although this has focused on Montserrado capacity. Sirleaf’s reelection in November and Nimba, the issues encountered in these 2011 was generally deemed free and fair, two counties highlight the larger-scale issues demonstrating the country’s trajectory endemic to modern Liberia. www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Fund for Peace UNLocK Liberia Methodology About the Report From March 2010 to November 2011 submitting incident reports to a password- Liberia for this report due to several reasons. the Fund for Peace conducted ten conflict protected database organized by date, FFP staff traveled to Liberia in April 2012, and assessment workshops in Liberia in location and indicator. These incident reports held an UNLocK workshop in Nimba County, partnership with Liberia Democracy Watch. In are then compiled to generate an image of and saw many of these pressures still Bong, Bomi, Grand Bassa, Grand Gedeh, the conflict landscape in Liberia which is then reflected. Montserrado is Liberia’s smallest Nimba, and Lofa Counties as well as used to anticipate and respond to the major county, but also its most populous. Many Monrovia, individuals and civil society pressures that could lead to conflict. In the citizens in Montserrado partake in petty organizations have been trained in a conflict short term, this information acts as a warning, trading, avoiding legal avenues due to a lack assessment methodology utilizing FFP’s allowing people to avoid potential conflict of support for the government and judicial Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) zones. More broadly, this information can be system. Moreover, public services – like framework. Adapted for relevance to Liberia’s used by government and civil society to roads, hospitals, and education – are local conflict landscape, CAST equips inform conflict sensitive approaches to inadequate for the population size. Indeed, a participants with the tools to assess, development and policy. As of this portion of the population qualifies as “food anticipate, and take actions to prevent publication over 800 incident reports had insecure,” leading to greater health problems, violent conflict. been filed representing participation from at because it shows pressures on such a large least 80 civil society organizations. part of the Liberian population it was also Since the UNLocK Early Warning System was included. established in 2008, participants have been UNLocK has focused on two counties in Indicators The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought include social, economic, and political/military pressures on the state: Social Economic Political/Military Demographic Pressures Uneven Development Legitimacy of the State Refugees or Displaced Persons Economy Public Services Group Grievance Human Rights Human Flight/Brain Drain Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention www.fundforpeace.org 4 The Fund for Peace UNLocK Liberia National Level Analysis Measured by Content Analysis While multiple factors play a role in Social and Demographic Pressures hindering Liberia’s recovery, perhaps the most salient issue is the inability of the 10 justice system to adequately address and resolve disputes. According to a report by the 8 Carter Center, 1 Liberia’s formal judicial system is widely believed to be riddled with corruption and most irregularities reported 6 are believed to be related to the influence of money and social power. 4 Many Liberians feel that the formal justice 2 system has failed to provide accessible, Relative Intensity Pressureof affordable, and timely services for their 0 communities and does not address root Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec causes of conflict as effectively as the customary system. These feelings were 2011 echoed on a recent field visit by the Fund for Peace and Liberia Democracy Watch, when Political and Security Pressures many individuals in Nimba County stated that the formal justice system actually 10 exacerbates land conflict and ethnic tensions and that taking a neighbor to court creates 8 tremendous animosity in the county. Furthermore, individuals living in rural 6 communities often prefer customary law or traditional justice, believing that more 4 serious crimes are best handled by local chiefs, rather than the formal justice system. 2 These shortcomings of the judicial system are Relative Intensity Pressureof evident in the UNLocK reports from this time 0 period. For example, one report detailed Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec blatant bribery in a land dispute case, in which the judge was given $500 LD and a 2011 goat to influence his ruling in the case. In another instance, a report noted that a Nimba was highlighted. first in which the National Elections defendant was forced to pay an expensive, The failures of the justice system are also Commission was responsible for organizing non-refundable fee merely to bring his case widespread in Montserrado, and often all aspects of the electoral process without to court. Throughout many of the reports, the exacerbate the prevalence of violent crime, significant assistance or oversight from pervasiveness of corruption and lack of gender-based violence, and election international partners. With this public accessibility to the judicial system in irregularities. The 2011 elections were the independence came the assumption that the 1 Formal and informal justice in Liberia. Pewee Flomoku and Counsellor Lemuel Reeves www.fundforpeace.org 5 The Fund for Peace Indicator Trends system was corrupt. There were reports (and clarify election regulations and address security pressures (security apparatus, human several cases investigated and confirmed by disputes among candidates.