DOCSLIB.ORG

Conflict, Cropland and Food Prices

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Conflict, Cropland and Food Prices Conflict, Cropland and Food Prices Syrian Arab Republic Sep 2016 opposition military activities while also halting humanitarian access. Although conflict intensity steadily declined 1,842 The conflict map below shows the density of security incidents observed between Number of Incidents Cessation of 1,629 02 May 2016 through September 2016 (with over 5,500 events recorded). The city nationwide, the siege in Aleppo levied a huge burden on civilian access to food, water, and medical supplies, a hostilities 1,439 of Aleppo had the highest conflict density as the regime offensive to take the condition that remained and worsened throughout the rest of the reporting period culminating in the bombing of rebel-held east that began in April continued and intensified throughout the a UN aid convoy carrying food during an attempted ceasefire in mid-September. 1,202 reporting period. The incidents in Rural Damascus, Dar’a al Balad, and northern 1,117 1,288 As the overlay with cropland areas shows, the majority of incidents are concentrated in populated areas with 1,094 1,102 1,112 Quneitra also represent conflict between the regime and opposition groups as 989 agricultural land. The damage to fields and agricultural infrastructure as well as restrictions on supply lines for 1,026 does the fighting around Tartous, Lattakia and Idleb. In the east however, conflict 818 machinery, livestock feed, seeds and other essential inputs has a devastating effect on national agricultural Siege of Aleppo in Manbij, Homa, Ar-Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zor represents strikes against territory output, starting with a decrease in areas planted. As a consequence, the production of wheat in 2016 is estimated begins held by ISIL affiliates. to be only half of what was produced in 2015, also acknowledging the impact from reduced rainfall and higher 6-Day Aleppo Offensive launch A slight drop in hostilities in May due to a six-day ceasefire in Aleppo was temperatures for most of Syria during the growing season. Key transportation routes from producing areas to Ceasefire in Latakia, Rural US-Russia Brokered consumption areas are also affected by the ongoing conflict. This is reflected in the price changes observed 2015 2016 Ceasefire immediately followed by a major spike in hostilities in June a month that saw heavy Damascas and Manbij bombing in the Aleppo countryside, the beginning of the Manbij offensive, around the country, with many districts experiencing significant price increases between May and September. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep opposition take-over of several villages near al-Hader south of Aleppo. In July, a short-lived Eid ceasefire took place during which time the regime gained control of a hilltop that allowed them to effectively place East Aleppo under siege, slowing Food Price Changes June - August 2016 less than - 50 % -25 - -50 % -25 - -10 % -10 - 0 % Al-Hasakeh 0.0 % 0 - 10 % 10-25 % 25 - 50 % Aleppo Ar-Raqqa Cropland more than 50 % Not Covered Lattakia 50-100% Idleb Percentage price change for commodities: - 250 g Flour, - 15 g Sugar, < 50% - 350 g Rice, - 350 g Lentils Hama Per family per day Deir-ez-Zor No Vegetation Tartous Areas of influence Conflict Kurdish Newly Sep 2016 density Forces gained Homs Non-state armed High groups and ANF Newly gained Low Newly gained Damascus Rural Damascus Conflict Data (Oct, 2015 to Sept, 2016): Government iMMAP Iraq office compiles this dataset from open sources. (SAA) Newly gained Quneitra A kernel density using 10km radius for nearest neighbours is calculated. ISIL- Price data (May-September, 2016): affiliated WFP, CBRWG, IRD, REACH, combined and analysed by RFSAN Dar'a groups Agriculture Areas: FAO GLC-SHARE, 2010 Land Cover Contested As-Sweida Date created: 20 Oct 2016 Areas Datum/Projection: WGS84/UTM 37N REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS NETWORK.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Policy Notes for the Trump Notes Administration the Washington Institute for Near East Policy ■ 2018 ■ Pn55
    TRANSITION 2017 POLICYPOLICY NOTES FOR THE TRUMP NOTES ADMINISTRATION THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ 2018 ■ PN55 TUNISIAN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA AARON Y. ZELIN Tunisia should really open its embassy in Raqqa, not Damascus. That’s where its people are. —ABU KHALED, AN ISLAMIC STATE SPY1 THE PAST FEW YEARS have seen rising interest in foreign fighting as a general phenomenon and in fighters joining jihadist groups in particular. Tunisians figure disproportionately among the foreign jihadist cohort, yet their ubiquity is somewhat confounding. Why Tunisians? This study aims to bring clarity to this question by examining Tunisia’s foreign fighter networks mobilized to Syria and Iraq since 2011, when insurgencies shook those two countries amid the broader Arab Spring uprisings. ©2018 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ NO. 30 ■ JANUARY 2017 AARON Y. ZELIN Along with seeking to determine what motivated Evolution of Tunisian Participation these individuals, it endeavors to reconcile estimated in the Iraq Jihad numbers of Tunisians who actually traveled, who were killed in theater, and who returned home. The find- Although the involvement of Tunisians in foreign jihad ings are based on a wide range of sources in multiple campaigns predates the 2003 Iraq war, that conflict languages as well as data sets created by the author inspired a new generation of recruits whose effects since 2011. Another way of framing the discussion will lasted into the aftermath of the Tunisian revolution. center on Tunisians who participated in the jihad fol- These individuals fought in groups such as Abu Musab lowing the 2003 U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Young Man Freed Eight Years After Plea; Prosecutor to Talk
    15 International FRIDAY, JUNE 10, 2016 Ghana chef works against waste to feed the hungry ACCRA: Excess and waste are usually considered sympto- matic of the affluent West but trained chef Elijah Amoo Addo knows these are problems too in his home country, Ghana. One day he saw a homeless man collecting food scraps to feed others in the capital, Accra. Watching someone pick up food no-one else would eat for people no-one was helping, got him thinking. Amoo Addo believed there was enough food in the west African nation to feed all of its nearly 27 million people, but more had to be done to educate and inspire people to help those in need. The result was a charity, now called Food For All Ghana. The process is simple and not unlike recent French legislation that forces supermarkets to donate unsold food to charities and food banks, which campaigners want to see spread across Europe. Food manufacturers and suppliers are asked for unused and excess food or products approaching their best-before dates. Every weekend volunteers visit orphanages, hospitals, schools and communities using donated goods to cook for those in need and hand over ingredients for future use. “We have kids who are out of school just because they can’t get food to eat,” Amoo Adoo, 25 said. “We have families who sometimes in the day can’t even afford a plate of food. —AFP Over 130 IS fighters killed in battle for Syria’s Manbij BEIRUT: More than 130 Islamic State group fighters have been killed in a US-backed offensive on the key jihadist-held city of Manbij in northern Syria, a monitoring group said yes- terday.
    [Show full text]
  • ENERGY GAME: SYRIA & KURDISH CORRIDOR by Necdet Karakurt and Oğuzhan Akyener
    ENERGY GAME: SYRIA & KURDISH CORRIDOR by Necdet Karakurt and Oğuzhan Akyener has been proved by Turkey that PYD/YPG is INTRODUCTION the parallel extension of so called Kurdistan “The balance in Workers’ Party (PKK), known as a terrorist organization. However, USA and EU tend Syria has been inter- A huge lack in the governmental authorita- to close their ears on Turkey’s warnings. Per- tive figures and the head of country being un- changeable since it haps, in the near future, when the crisis or reasonably selfish and foolish have left Syria unrest in Syria ends, those terrorists will start is possible to relate in the hands of the hell-hounds, who havoc wreaking havoc in today’s supporter coun- throughout the country and devastate cities, each terrorist group tries as history always repeats itself. settlements, and villages, where especially with a country. When- the Arabs and Turkmen live. Terrorism cre- Turkey, out of all the countries involved in ated a realm of chaos in Syria that increased ever a country loses the region, focuses on the civilian rights and appetite for many powerful countries to play perhaps, it is the only country that lacks a the upper hand or a key role and get the biggest share from the powerful energy strategy regarding the re- energy resources in the region. The balance tries to settle its politi- serves in the region. Terrorist groups like in Syria has been interchangeable since it is Daesh and PYD/YPG are the puppets of the cal struggles in Syria, possible to relate each terrorist group with a international assembly and their tasks are to country.
    [Show full text]
  • The Latest Aleppo Battle May Give the Islamic State Another Reprieve | the Washington Institute
    MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 2611 The Latest Aleppo Battle May Give the Islamic State Another Reprieve by Fabrice Balanche Apr 26, 2016 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Fabrice Balanche Fabrice Balanche, an associate professor and research director at the University of Lyon 2, is an adjunct fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis Aside from President Obama, none of the main players in Syria has an interest in rushing toward Raqqa, so they will likely focus on exploiting the various campaigns around Aleppo instead. espite the ongoing peace negotiations in Geneva, each camp in the Syria war is preparing for a general D resumption of hostilities in the Aleppo area. In addition to the strategically important city itself, the Islamic State-occupied territory between Aleppo and the Euphrates is increasingly becoming a focal point, shifting attention away from the group's stronghold to the east and likely further delaying the Obama administration's goal of pushing IS out of its "capital" in Raqqa. CONTINUED ENCIRCLEMENT O n February 27, a ceasefire temporarily halted the Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian army campaign to encircle the rebel-held portions of Aleppo city. By that point, the army had already cut the road to the border town of Azaz with the cooperation of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, or PYD (see PolicyWatch 2554, "The Battle of Aleppo Is the Center of the Syrian Chessboard"). That resulted in a hostile reaction from Turkey, which fired on the Kurdish militia to prevent it from taking Azaz city and the nearby Bab al-Salam crossing point.
    [Show full text]
  • SMA Reach-Back
    SMA CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Final Quick Look Responses SMA Reach-back This white paper does not represent official USG policy or position. 1 Contents Executive Summaries .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Question (QL1): What are the factors that could potentially cause behavior changes in Pakistan and how can the US and coalition countries influence those factors? ...................... 4 Question (QL2): What are the strategic and operational implications of the Turkish Army’s recent intervention in northern Syria for the coalition campaign plan to defeat ISIL? What is the impact of this intervention on the viability of coalition vetted indigenous ground forces, Syrian Defense Forces and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly ANF)? ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Question (QL3): What does primary source opinion research tell us about population support for ISIL in ISIL-held Iraq and globally outside the Combined Joint Operation Area (CJOA) (Syria and Iraq)? ............................................................................................................................. 10 Question (QL4): To what extent do populations maintain positive views of ISIL or ISIL's ideology, particularly in European, N. African, and Arabian Peninsula countries most associated with foreign fighter flows into Syria and
    [Show full text]
  • Bernard-Henri Lévy Peshmerga
    INSTITUT KURDDE PARIS E Information and liaison bulletin N° 375 JUNE 2016 The publication of this Bulletin enjoys a subsidy from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Ministry of Culture This bulletin is issued in French and English Price per issue : France: 6 € — Abroad : 7,5 € Annual subscribtion (12 issues) France : 60 € — Elsewhere : 75 € Monthly review Directeur de la publication : Mohamad HASSAN Misen en page et maquette : Ṣerefettin ISBN 0761 1285 INSTITUT KURDE, 106, rue La Fayette - 75010 PARIS Tel. : 01-48 24 64 64 - Fax : 01-48 24 64 66 www.fikp.org E-mail: bulletin@fikp.org Information and liaison bulletin Kurdish Institute of Paris Bulletin N° 375 June 2016 • ROJAVA: THE SDF ENTER MANBIJ WITH THE BACKING OF THE ANTI-ISIS COALITION • TURKEY: THE KURDISH MEMERS OF PARLIAMENT LOSE THEIR IMUNITY BUT THE ARMY RECEIVES FULL IMUNITY FOR ITS ACTSD OF VIOLENCE IN KURDISTAN • TURKEY: INCREASINGLY ISOLATED INTERNATIONALLY • IRAQI KURDISTAN: KIRKUK IS ALSO PREPARING TO THE REFERENDUM ON SELF-DETERMINATION • IRAN: IN A CONTEXT OF GERALISED REPRESSION THE KDPI HAS RENEWED ITS ARMED STRUGGLE • CULTURE: A FILM DEVOTED TO THE PESHMERGASIS SHOWN AT CANNES AND IN PARIS CINEMAS ROJAVA: THE SDF ENTER MANBIJ WITH THE BACKING OF THE ANTI-ISIS COALITION n Wednesday 1 June, the Kurds to link their cantons of have advanced fairly slowly Syrian Democratic Kobanê and Afrin, to the East and because the fighters first gave Forces (SDF) announced West of it, as they succeeded in priority to systematically freeing from Kobanê a major doing last year with Kobanê and dozens of villages and farms O offensive entitled “Free Jezeereh by integrating in July increasingly close to the town.
    [Show full text]
  • Print This Article
    ISSN: 2051-0861 Publication details, including guidelines for submissions: https://journals.le.ac.uk/ojs1/index.php/nmes The Construction of Containment Anxiety: A Critical Geopolitical Analysis of Turkey’s Military Intervention into Syria Author(s): Mustafa Onur Tetik To cite this article: Tetik, Mustafa Onur (2019) ―The Construction of Containment Anxiety: A Critical Geopolitical Analysis of Turkey‘s Military Intervention into Syria‖, New Middle Eastern Studies 9 (1), pp. 69-95. Online Publication Date: 18 March 2019 Disclaimer and Copyright The NMES editors make every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information contained in the journal. However, the Editors and the University of Leicester make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability for any purpose of the content and disclaim all such representations and warranties whether express or implied to the maximum extent permitted by law. Any views expressed in this publication are the views of the authors and not the views of the Editors or the University of Leicester. Copyright New Middle Eastern Studies, 2019. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored, transmitted or disseminated, in any form, or by any means, without prior written permission from New Middle Eastern Studies, to whom all requests to reproduce copyright material should be directed, in writing. Terms and Conditions This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date.
    [Show full text]
  • Turkey Criticizes International Community Over Syrian Refugees International Community’S Support for Turkey’S Ef- Since 2011
    Wednesday September 28, 2016 www.aa.com.tr/en WEATHER / ANKARA Wednesday SUNNY 21°C Thursday SUNNY ISTANBUL PHOTO AWARDS EXHIBIT INTERNATIONAL FINANCE BODY IFC ISTANBUL’S THIRD AIRPORT ‘WILL HOST 21°C OPENS IN ViENNA >> CULTURE and ART INVESTS $1.8B IN TURKEY >> TURKEY 250 aIRLINES’ >> TURKEY YEARS ‘Over 200 YPG members’ in Syria’s Manbij: Turkish FM Turkey’s presidential spokesman calls for setting up Syria safe zones Mevlut Cavusoglu reminds US of pledge to push back armed wing of PYD/PKK to east of Euphrates Turkey has reiterated its calls for safe Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has re- us that some YPG elements need to be includ- to push back the armed wing of PYD/PKK. zones in northern Syria, both for its minded the U.S. over its pledge to push the ed in the Manbij offensive for logistical pur- “Mr. Biden and Mr. Kerry have pledged. They border security and the safe return of YPG to the east of Euphrates, noting that more poses, we told them this is a flawed policy. cannot send them back now, they cannot Syrians to their own country. In an than 200 members of the armed wing of the “But then we agreed to that on one condition: make the YPG do what they say. More than opinion article published by Daily Sa- terrorist PYD/PKK group remain in Manbij in YPG members would retreat beyond [to the 200 YPG members are still in Manbij.” The bah late Monday, Turkey’s Presiden- northern Syria. Speaking at a joint press con- east of] the River Euphrates as soon as the foreign minister also said it would be a “huge tial Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin wrote: ference with British Foreign Secretary Boris operation is over,” he said.
    [Show full text]
  • DEFEATING the ISLAMIC STATE a Bottom-Up Approach
    JUNE 2016 DEFEATING THE ISLAMIC STATE A Bottom-Up Approach Ilan Goldenberg, Nicholas A. Heras, and Paul Scharre A Report of the CNAS ISIS Study Group About the Co-Chairs Michèle A. Flournoy is Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). She served as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from February 2009 to February 2012. She was the principal advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the formulation of national security and defense policy, oversight of military plans and operations, and in National Security Council (NSC) deliberations. She led the development of DoD’s 2012 Strategic Guidance and represented the Department in dozens of foreign engagements, in the media, and before Congress. Prior to confirmation, Ms. Flournoy co-led President Barack Obama’s transition team at DoD. Richard Fontaine is the President of CNAS. He served as a Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow at CNAS from 2009–2012 and previously as foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain for more than five years. He has also worked at the StateDepartment, the NSC, and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Mr. Fontaine served as foreign policy advisor to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign and, following the election, as the minority deputy staff director on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Prior to this, he served as associate director for Near Eastern affairs at the NSC from 2003–04. About the Authors Ilan Goldenberg is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Security Program at CNAS. He previously served at the State Department as Chief of Staff for the small team supporting Secretary John Kerry’s initiative to conduct permanent-status negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.
    [Show full text]
  • What Terrorist Migration Over European Borders Can Teach About American Border Security by Todd Bensman
    CIS Letterhead_Layout 1 7/26/12 4:34 PM Page 1 Center for Immigration Studies C I S November 2019 What Terrorist Migration Over European Borders Can Teach About American Border Security By Todd Bensman The irregular migrant flow was exploited in order to dispatch terrorist operatives clandestinely to Europe. IS and possibly other jihadist terrorist organizations may continue to do so. — “European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2017”1 It remains a theoretical vulnerability but not one that terrorists have been able to exploit. — Nicholas Rasmussen, former National Counterterrorism Center director under the Obama administration, January 2019, regarding such infiltration over the U.S. southern border.2 Key Findings • At least 104 Islamist extremists entered the European Union’s (EU) external borders using long-haul ir- regular migration methods between 2014-2018, establishing proof-of-concept for a previously theoretical terrorism travel tactic over borders. • Of the 104 migrant terrorists identified for the 2014-2018 period, 28 successfully completed attacks that claimed the lives of 170 victims and wounded 878. An additional 37 were arrested or killed plotting at- tacks, and 39 others were arrested for illegal involvement with foreign terrorist organizations. • A majority of the 104 terrorists applied for international protections such as asylum and were able to re- main in European nations for an average of 11 months before attacks or arrests for plots, demonstrating that asylum processes accommodated plot incubation. • While total numbers of migrant-terrorists were a fraction of overall irregular migration, their activities demonstrate that small numbers present outsized threats to the United States should only a few strike here.
    [Show full text]
  • Strange Comrades: Non-Jihadist Foreign Fighters in Iraq & Syria
    STRANGE COMRADES: NON-JIHADIST FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ & SYRIA Beleidsrapport Aantal woorden: 24.971 Simon De Craemer Stamnummer: 01004682 Promotor: Prof. dr. Marlies Casier Masterproef voorgelegd voor het behalen van de graad master in de richting Politieke Wetenschappen afstudeerrichting Internationale Politiek Academiejaar: 2016 – 2017 Table of Contents 1. List of abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................... 4 3. Non-jihadist foreign fighters: a theoretical basis ...................................................................................... 8 4. Historical timeline ................................................................................................................................................. 13 5. Case study ................................................................................................................................................................. 21 5.1 Data collection: building a foreign fighter database .............................................................................. 21 5.2 Data analysis and results ................................................................................................................................. 24 5.3 Profiles and groups of foreign fighters .....................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Netwar in Cyberia: Decoding the Media Mujahidin
    Perspectives Netwar in Cyberia: Decoding the Media Mujahidin By Ali Fisher Paper 5, 2018 Netwar in Cyberia: Decoding the Media Mujahidin Ali Fisher October 2018 Figueroa Press Los Angeles NETWAR IN CYBERIA: DECODING THE MEDIA MUJAHIDIN by Ali Fisher Guest Editor Vivian S. Walker Faculty Fellow, USC Center on Public Diplomacy Published by FIGUEROA PRESS 840 Childs Way, 3rd Floor Los Angeles, CA 90089 Phone: (213) 743-4800 Fax: (213) 743-4804 www.figueroapress.com Figueroa Press is a division of the USC Bookstores Produced by Crestec, Los Angeles, Inc. Printed in the United States of America Notice of Rights Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purposes of criticism and review, no part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without prior written permission from the author, care of Figueroa Press. Notice of Liability The information in this book is distributed on an “As is” basis, without warranty. While every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this book, neither the author nor Figueroa nor the USC University Bookstore shall have any liability to any person or entity with respect to any loss or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly by any text contained in this book. Figueroa Press and the USC Bookstores are trademarks of the University of Southern California. ISBN-13: 978-0-18-223187-4 ISBN-10: 0-18-223187-9 About the USC Center on Public Diplomacy The USC Center on Public Diplomacy (CPD) was established in 2003 as a partnership between the Annenberg School for Communication & Journalism and the School of International Relations at the University of Southern California.
    [Show full text]