Conflict, Cropland and Food Prices Syrian Arab Republic Sep 2016

opposition military activities while also halting humanitarian access. Although conflict intensity steadily declined 1,842 The conflict map below shows the density of security incidents observed between Number of Incidents Cessation of 1,629 02 May 2016 through September 2016 (with over 5,500 events recorded). The city nationwide, the in Aleppo levied a huge burden on civilian access to food, water, and medical supplies, a hostilities 1,439 of Aleppo had the highest conflict density as the regime offensive to take the condition that remained and worsened throughout the rest of the reporting period culminating in the bombing of rebel-held east that began in April continued and intensified throughout the a UN aid convoy carrying food during an attempted ceasefire in mid-September. 1,202 reporting period. The incidents in Rural Damascus, Dar’a al Balad, and northern 1,117 1,288 As the overlay with cropland areas shows, the majority of incidents are concentrated in populated areas with 1,094 1,102 1,112 Quneitra also represent conflict between the regime and opposition groups as 989 agricultural land. The damage to fields and agricultural infrastructure as well as restrictions on supply lines for 1,026 does the fighting around Tartous, Lattakia and Idleb. In the east however, conflict 818 machinery, livestock feed, seeds and other essential inputs has a devastating effect on national agricultural Siege of Aleppo in , Homa, Ar- and Deir-ez-Zor represents strikes against territory output, starting with a decrease in areas planted. As a consequence, the production of wheat in 2016 is estimated begins held by ISIL affiliates. to be only half of what was produced in 2015, also acknowledging the impact from reduced rainfall and higher 6-Day Aleppo Offensive launch A slight drop in hostilities in May due to a six-day ceasefire in Aleppo was temperatures for most of Syria during the growing season. Key transportation routes from producing areas to Ceasefire in Latakia, Rural US-Russia Brokered consumption areas are also affected by the ongoing conflict. This is reflected in the price changes observed 2015 2016 Ceasefire immediately followed by a major spike in hostilities in June a month that saw heavy Damascas and Manbij bombing in the Aleppo countryside, the beginning of the , around the country, with many districts experiencing significant price increases between May and September. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep opposition take-over of several villages near al-Hader south of Aleppo. In July, a short-lived Eid ceasefire took place during which time the regime gained control of a hilltop that allowed them to effectively place East Aleppo under siege, slowing Food Price Changes June - August 2016

less than - 50 % -25 - -50 % -25 - -10 % -10 - 0 % Al-Hasakeh 0.0 % 0 - 10 % 10-25 % 25 - 50 % Aleppo Ar-Raqqa Cropland more than 50 % Not Covered Lattakia 50-100% Idleb Percentage price change for commodities: - 250 g Flour, - 15 g Sugar, < 50% - 350 g Rice, - 350 g Lentils Hama Per family per day Deir-ez-Zor No Vegetation Tartous Areas of influence Conflict Kurdish Newly Sep 2016 density Forces gained Homs Non-state armed High groups and ANF Newly gained Low

Newly gained Damascus Rural Damascus

Conflict Data (Oct, 2015 to Sept, 2016): Government iMMAP Iraq office compiles this dataset from open sources. (SAA) Newly gained Quneitra A kernel density using 10km radius for nearest neighbours is calculated. ISIL- Price data (May-September, 2016): affiliated WFP, CBRWG, IRD, REACH, combined and analysed by RFSAN Dar'a groups Agriculture Areas: FAO GLC-SHARE, 2010 Land Cover Contested As-Sweida Date created: 20 Oct 2016 Areas Datum/Projection: WGS84/UTM 37N REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS NETWORK