Dining, David R. TITLE Studies in the Spirit of Seventy-Six

DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 129 655 95 SO 009 417 AUTHOR Dining, David R. TITLE Studies in the Spirit of Seventy-Six. INSTITUTION Wisconsin State Dept. of Public Instruction, Madison. SPONS AGENCY Office of Education (DHEW), Washington, D.C. PUB DATE 76 NOTE 61p.

EDRS PRICE MF-$0.83 HC-$3.50 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Behavior Patterns; Class Activities; Death; *Family (Sociological Unit) ;*Futures (of Society) ;History Instruction; *Humanistic Education; *Individual Characteristics; Individual Development; Inquiry Training; Interdisciplinary Approach; Matrices; Models; Secondary Education; Skill Development; Socialization; Social Studies; Teaching Techniques; *Values; Workbooks IDENTIFIERS Bicentennial; Elementary Secondary Education Act Title V; ESEA Title V ABSTRACT Classroom activities for directing student inquiry into the role of the individual in the future are provided in this text. Activities are presented within a framework of respect for and understandina of the past and the present. A matrix for the study of the individual as a whole person is presented. The matrix is devised along the present, past, and future connections and interactions between the individual and the family, local community, state/nation, world, and community and along the dimensions of mass communication media and transpersonal relationships. Numerous workshop guides which are intended to help students develop necessary critical skills, develop sensitivity to their historical heritage, and become aware of the alternatives and challenges of the future are provided. Activities connected with two aspects of the model, the family and the future, are presented. The first unit, "The Individual in a Family," examines the family as a resource for learning about society by studying role identification, pioneer family life, and family norms. The second unit, "The Individual in the Emerging Present," introduces some simple techniques for thinking about the future and concentrates particularly on future values for today's social studies curriculum. Games, charts, models, simulations, projects, nongraded quizzes, surveys, opinion measurement devices, "what if" exercises, and an epitaph on death and dying are included.(Author/DB) *********************************************************************** * Documents acquired by ERIC include many informa] unpublished * * materials not available from other sources. ERIC makes every effort * * to obtain the best copy available. Nevertheless, items of marginal * * reproducibility are often encountered and this affects the quality * * of the microfiche and hardcopy reproductions ERIC makes available * * via the ERIC Document Reproduction Service (EDRS). EDRS is not * * responsible for the quality of the original document. Reproductions * * supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original. * *********************************************************************** U S DEPARTMENT EDUCATIONALOF HEALTH. WELFARE NATIONAL INSTITUTE EDUCATION OF THIS 00CUMENT OUCEO EXACTLYHAS BEENREPRO- THE PERSON AS RECEIVED Studies in the Spirit OR ORGANIZATION FROM ATING IT POINTS ORIGIN- OF VIEW OR STATEO DONOT NECESSARILYOPINIONS SENT OFFICIAL REPRE- of Seventy-Six EOUCATION NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF POSITION ORPOLICY

By David R. Dilling, Consultant Indiana Department of Public Instruction Harold H. Negley, Superintendent

tr. cr- r-1

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"education in this day and age is a dynamic, ever-changing thing; it provides the motivation to keep up with the activities of today... and to be ready to involve yourself not just in what's happening today or in what happerred ten years ago, but rather in what will happen tomorrow." Neil Armstrong

2 Interstate Project for State Plamiing and Program Consolidation

Participating States Chief State School Officers Policy Committee Illinois Dr. Joseph M. Cronin Mr. Emmett Slingsby Indiana Dr. Harold H. Negley Mr. Ray Slaby Michigan Dr. John Porter Mr. Alex Canja Minnesota Mr. Howard Casmey Mr. Gregory J. Waddick Ohio Dr. Martin W. Essex B. Paul Spayde Wisconsin Dr. Barbara Thompson Dr. Archie Buchmiller

Dr. Robb L. Shanks. Project Director Dexter Mners. USOE Project Coordinator Project Office:Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction, 126 Langdon St., Madison, WI53702 Financed by funds provided under the Elementary and Secondary Education Actof 1965 (Public Law 89-10, Title V, Sec. 505) and the sponsoring states. Theactivity which is the subjnct of this report was supported in whole or in party the U.S. Office of Education, Department of Health, Education and Welfare. However, the npinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the U.S. Cffice of Education, and no official endorsement by the U.S. Office of Education should be inferred.

Several articles have been reprinted in the ICNI heloW for background data or illustrative purposes.Material L-ont;iined in these :irticles does not necessarily reflect the viewpoints or attitudes of the writer. the Interstate Policy Committee. or their respective educatiomil agencies.

3 and its predecessor, the Land Ordinance of "The Individual in 1785, became the points of departure for the bicentennial project supported by the the Spirit of '76" UMRIP committee. "Studies in the Spirit of '76" is the result of that commitment. Had I to carve an inscription on my On June 9-10, 1975, representatives of the grave I would ask for none other than sponsoring state educational agencies met "The Individual." in Chicago to plan an effort that would 1. Harmonize with the astablished themes of Soren Kierkegaard theAmericanRevolutionBicentennial Journals, 723 Administration,2.Contributetothe fulfillment of specific educational needs and 3. Provide a framework for a series of useful, ongoing studies. Present at that This chapter will introduce the Studies and meeting were Roger Wangen of St. Paul, provide an explanation of the theory used MN, Ann Pictor of Springfield, IL, Leslie in the subsequent chapters. Davis of Madison, WI, David Dilling of West Lafayette, IN, Dewey Wahl and John For generations educators have professed Harrold, both of Indianapolis, IN. to be interested in teaching "the whole person." This project begins by question- The determination of this group was to ing the meaning of the "the whole person." provide a document that would make an Clearly, persons are extraordinarily com- immediate classroom contribution. What plex beings. Is there a way to conceptualize emerged from the Chicago conference was a a pergonal being as a whole? Can any set of model in the form of a cross-impact matrix guidelines be devised that will direct our emphasizing the wholeness of persons in all inquiry properly in the direction of the of their activities and social relationships in whole person? the past, present and future. "Studies in the Spirit of '76" does not The model and workshop guides presented presume to have captured thiselusive herewithareafirstattempttoadd wholeness. What ir3 offered here is a model substance to the person-matrix. We invite which we believe does in fact point toward you and your classes to join with us in the the whole person.Inthesucceeding further development of this open-ended chapters of this packet two aspects of that proj ect. model which seem to deserve emphasis have been developed as workshop guides. The purpose of these guides is to stress aspects of the "whole person" teachers may What is "The Spirit of '76?" have neglected. In 1876, Ohio artist Archibald Willard painted 14 versions of the famous "Spirit of The Origin of These Studies '76" for the American Centennial celebration. Since then the expression "the Spirit "Studies in the Spirit of '76" originated of '76" has been used in so many different with the policy committee of the Upper ways it now means virtually nothing unless MidwestRegionalInterstateProject itisinvested with a new specifically (UMRIP). UMRIP is a consortium of state designated meaning. During the Bicenten- education agencies consisting of Illinois, nial celebration there appears to be no end Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and to the exploitation of the phrase. One Wisconsin.Earlyin1975thisgroup bottled liquor selling for $17.76 certainly appropriated a part of their resources for a seems justified in calling itself the Spirit of bicentennial-related endeavor. Inasmuch '76. The advertising people have had little as the states involved were essentially difficulty in varying this theme. coextensivewiththeOldNorthwest Territory, the Northwest Ordinance of 1787 To us, the Spirit of '76 describes our resolve 4 to confront our present situation intelli- Most of the American state and federal gently through 1. The development of the constitutions were the work of college- necessary critical skills, 2. A sensitivity to educated men who had studied political our historical heritage. and 3. An aware- theory in Aristotle, Plato. Cicero,Poly- ness of the alternatives and challenges of bius, ancl other ancient writers and had the future. giuen deep thought to probkms of political reconstruction. Men such as George Mason Without gilding the revolutionary period, and Thomas Jefferson. James Madison, we believe that we can see such a critical John Adams and James Bowdoin knew spirit at work.Historian Samuel Eliot exactly what they were doing. And most of Morison aptly describes the impactof them were relatively young men. having political leaders with a keensense of world history. The American Revolution Similarly. we understand the Spirit of '76 was unique among wars for independence asanopennesstothefuture.The inthatthosewhowrotethenew Northwest Ordinance and the Land Ordi- constitutions had a wide knowledge of nance werefuture-orienteddocuments. politicalhistory.soundexperiencein They provided for the creation of new democratic government and superb abili- states and their addition to the Union on an tiesinrelatingtheirexperiencesand equal footing with the Original Thirteen. historical insights to the urgent tasks at They supplied public land for educational hand. As Morison puts it in his Oxford purposes and enjoined equitable dealings History of the American People: with the Native Americans. They established a framework for land tenure and All modern history proves that it is easy transfer. They proscribed slavery. They enough for a determined minority to pull providedreligiousand otherfreedoms downagovernment,butexceedingly under a system of legal government. difficult to reconstruct, to reestablish law and order on new foundations. .. .Doz- Nevertheless, neither these documents nor ens of nations since World War II have won any of our venerated national founders independence but how many have wereabletoforeseethesynergistic secured liberty? character of lifein the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Who in 1776 could Accordingtothenaturalhistoryof possibly have anticipated a gross national reuolutions, we would expect the American product of one trillion dollars annuallyas Confederation to fall apart, or that the has occurred in the United States within army or some outstanding leader would set that bicentennial? R. Buckminster Fuller up a military despotism. What actually expresseditthis way inhis Operating happened was the establishment of govern- Manual for Spaceship Earth: ment under law. The reasons forthis noteworthy outcomelie,first,inthe Our most reliable,visionary and well- politicalexperienceof Americans. As informed great-grandfathers of 1810 could Emerson wrote, "We began with freedom.- not have foreseen that in a meager century Secondly, they believed in the importance andone-half.. . .thehumanlife-span of political institutions as a guarantee of would be trebled,that the yearlyreal liberty. incomeoftheindividualwouldbe tenfolded,that the majority of diseases The principles of the American Revolution would be banished and human freedom of were essentially conservative; the leaders realizedtravelonehundredfolded;that were thinking of preserving and securing human beings would be able to whisper the freedom they already enjoyed rather effortlesslyinoneanother'sear from than,like the Russians;building some- anywhere around the world and ata speed thing new and different. of seuen hundred million milesan hour, their audibilityclearly reaching tothe Thus, when the Americans risked law and planetVenus,and that humanvision order to attain liberty, they made every around Earth's spherical deck would be effort to win them back. increased to see pebbles and grains of sand

2 on t he moon. inner core of the matrix (cells 1-25) would be far more than sufficient. However, cur "Studies in the Spirit of '76" seeks to assist goal is to concentrate on the whole person persons in learning who they are though a and we have the uneasy feeling that cells critical probing of historical roots, where 1-25 simply do not encompass the whole they are through an experiential review of person.Frankly,itisnotonlythe present circumstances and where they are theologians who sense that persons are going by creative and imaginative planning infinite beings. Therefore, we add to the for the future. This is the Spirit of '76 matrix asetofratheresotericouter toward which we are striving. dimensions which seem to trail off into the infinite just as do the past and future time dimensions. A Person-Matrix a. The first of these, represented by cells Our model for the study of the individual as 26-30, considers the current state of a whole personisrepresented by the mass communications media to be quali- person-matrix (figure 1). Several aspects of tatively different from other technologi- the matrix require an explanation. cal developments. Television, for example, isa unique and only dimly 1.First,there are important sensesin understoodsocialphenomenon.The which persons are temporal beings. Who I electronic media are, in the view of Mar- am the very meaning of my existence shall McLuhan, responsible for the fact is partly determined by my personal and that man now lives in a global village and cultural history and partly determined by is returning to the values and percep- what I am to be. Furthermore, time itself is tions of a preliterate culture. In the understood by some philosophers to be less words of McLuhan, "In the electric age, a category of reality than a function of when our centralnervous systemis human memory and anticipation. In any technologically extended to involve us in case, there is no doubt that temporality is a the whole of mankind and to incorporate crucial component of human wholeness. the whole of mankind in us, we neces- Therefore, everycell(numbered block) sarily participate, in depth, in the conse- shown on thefaceofthematrixis quences of our every action. It is no understood as a continuum through time. longer possible to adopt the aloof and The matrix is three-dimensional with time dissociated role of the literate West- as the third dimension. One immediate erner." corollary of the time dimensionisits suggestion that the quest for the whole b. Yet another dimension (cells 31-35) is personwillentailaneven,balanced added to account for the level of human treatment of the individual's past, present socialization which s, so far, beyond the and future. This suggestion alone, if taken realm of empirical observation or at seriously, could have dramatic implications least has escaped the notice of empiri- for education. cally-minded Western observers. We have called these "trans-personal rela- 2. The inner core of the matrix (cells 1-25) tionships"in deference to the recent presents a fairly typical arrangement of advent of "trans-personal psychology." socialcontexts andlife-activities.The Trans-personal literally means "beyond social contexts increase in scope from the the person". Yet we do not refer to any- single individual to the world community. thing beyond the person at all. We are The set oflifeactivitiesis somewhat concerned with the dimension of a person arbitrary. Simply to make manageable and a kind of a social relationship that is unitsofthingsweclassifiedhuman not directly observable the subjective behavior according to education, work, and affective qualities of human nature. leisure, religion and all other activities of a What is opening up to us here is the social or political nature. realization that the typical Western view of man, stemming from Aristotle, as 3. For the purposes of this project, the rational animal Homo sapiens is

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5 pared ahead of time so that there is one "The Individual for each person in the group. If more characterizations are needed the group in a Family" itself can prepare them. The idea is to describe a variety of different person The first thing to remember about the roles in a variety of different kinds of American family is that it doesn't exist. family situations. The idea of the American family and what it should be is, after all, the most Assign these cards to group members by powerful image used by government and reversing the sex roles. That is, to each business to promote the values and goals male member of the group assign a card of government and business, except for which describes a female person; to each the image of the free-market economy, female member of the group, assign a card which, of course, also doesn't exist. which describes a male person. Louise Kapp Howe Let each member of the group describe the The Future of the Family societyinwhich theylivefromthe perspective of the role they have been The purpose of this unit is to examine the assigned. family as a resource for learning about Make a list of these ideas on a chalkboard society. or on overhead transparencies. The family is a resource that all of us, in some way or another, have at our disposal through solid, first-hand experience. A Picture of the Past To limit the scope of this inquiry, emphasis It should be clear now that a good deal will be given to one aspect of family life, indeed can be discovered about a society namely, education. from an examination, however simple, of its families. To enlarge the possibilities of our vision, let us think about families past and families We also can discover a good deal about yet to be. Specifically, what has my family societies past from a consideration of the of the past been, and what will my family of families of the past and about societies the future be? future from a consideration of the families of the future. Is it possible for me to anticipate my family of the future? With this in mind, let us see what we can assume about a past society from the data Is it possible for me to create my family of provided in the following pictures of family the future? activities which begin on page 10. Distribute the pictures so that each one is An Introductory Activity shared by a small group. Arrange groups so that they are of about equal size. This unit suggests that the family isa useful resource for social study. Let's begin Let each group examine their picture bytestingthatsuggestionwiththe carefully and prepare a list of assumptions fellowing exercise. that can be made about the family and the society of which it was a part. Let each member of your group take a card with one of the characterizations As a further guide for the examination and which begin on page 8. discussion of these pictures, consider: Enough of these cards should be pre- Do these pictures, depicting home life in

9 7 You are in the insurance business. 11°4 Youareamalecollegestudent are married. You have two chudren.at studying English and journalism. You home. Your wife does not work outs14 o work part-tolmre for the college food the home. Your annual income service. wifeisacocktail about $16,000. waitress. You have an 18-month-old son.

You are a 12 year old gi: two you are a single male living in a small younger brothers and a young9a-siste apartment in Chicago. You have been Your father works in a steel mill but no working at the LaSalle Bank for two longer lives at home. Your roother years since your college graduation. works evenings from 3 to 11 in a shirt Your salarY is $8,600 a year. factory.

You arethe wife of asuccessful you are the mother of three chilcircn. business man. You are not ertiployed you are 39 years old. You are a school yourself, but are involved in rrarY teacher. Your oldest child is a high community activities. Your husbard school senior. Your youngest son is in is vice president of a major corporation kindergarten. You are divorced. andyourfather-in-lawis board chairman ofth-i same firm.your annual family income from the cor- porate salary is in excess of $100,000. Extensiveinvestmentshavebeen made from inherited wealth. Your unlY child is a daughter who is in her last year of college.

1 0 8 Assume the role of your own mother. You are an employee of the State Highway Patrol. You have two young children who do not yet go to school. Your wife has become critically ill and is hospitalized. Her chances of recov- ery are uncertain.

Assume the role of your own father. You are a bartender at a Holiday Inn. Your husband sells work clothes and sporting goods for the J. C. Penney Co. You have two children in college and a son who is a junior in high school.

You are the wife of a Baptist minister. For tenyearsyouhave beena You have three children. The oldest is prominentphysician in asmall two yearsoutofhighschool,a Michigantown.Yourwifeis a playboy-type who occasionally lives at volunteer worker for a local mental home and has never been employed for healthorganization. You have no more than three months at a time. children. Last year you attempted to take your own life. Your hometown newspaper was rather indelicate in its description of your personal problems.

Ii 9 this country from 1885-1920, suggest What is a Role? waysinwhichtheeducationthat children receive at home has changed? To get clear exactly what is meant by a tvle, consider the experience of the Blocker For example: family. What would a child in the family have to learn to live in a home such as one of Five persons live in the Blocker family: these? MarkBlocker,JaneBlocker,Josh Blocker, Joe Blocker and Mary Blocker. How would one learn such things? Mr. and Mrs. Blocker are both in their late forties. Josh and Joe are twins, age How would a child learn to survive in 16 and Mary is 14. the larger society that is implied by these pictures? The Blocker family has just returned from a summer vacation in Maine. They How would these things have likely have been gone for a month and their been learned? house has become quite dirty and dusty. Therefore, on the Saturday morning After the small groups have had sufficient when they return, Mr. and Mrs. Blocker opportunity to explore the ideas suggested ask that Joe, Josh and Mary stay home above, compile the results on a chalkboard. for the day so that the entire family can work together to clean up the house. Arrange the data on the board so that the They have a lot to do such as wash the conclusions about society past are to the family car, cut the lawn and trim the leftoftheconclusionsaboutsociety bushes, prune the dead branches from present. In this way a time line will begin the trees, pay all of the bills which have to emerge. piled up while they have been gone for a month, dust everything in the house, wet mop and wax all the floors and clean underneath the furniture. In addition, there isthe laundry to be done, the kitchen to be cleaned and the bathrooms Roles, Norms, and Role Clusters to be scrubbed. One fruitful way of looking at persons in a Iftheentirefamilyworksallday family or in a larger society is to think of Saturday, Mr. and Mrs. Blocker feel that the person as a set of intersecting roles. all the chores can be completed. Before they start, Mr. Blocker calls the family In order to do this with families and together in the kitchen. It is there that they societies of the past, present and future, will determine who does what job. we will need a small bit of conceptual machinery. For our purposes,the key Each one of you may have had a similar concepts will be ROLE, NORM and ROLE experience in your own family. Take a few CLUSTER. We will use these terms in the moments and see if you can predict who following way: will do which jobs in the Blocker family. Role is a specific set of activities A role describes a specific set of activities which individuals are expect- which an individual is expected to perform. ed to perform. For example, the role of judge is associated with specificactivities. A person who Norm is a rule which defines the assumes the role of legal judge probably way individuals should spends most of his time in court and hears behave in a given situation. many legal arguments. Another type of judge determines winners of horse races or Role Clusteris the set of various roles bakingcontestsorbeautypageants. assumed by one individual Librarian represents another role. A person during one period of life. assuming this role keeps records of books,

18 1 2 shelves books and also checks out books. What are Norms? What additional activities do you associate with the role of librarian? Dozens of roles Each of the characteristics of the role you exist in our society. Teacher, doctor, child, describedaboverepresentaruleof truck driver, lawyer, husband, salesman, behavior for that role. These characteristics mother, football player and policeman all describe the normal ways to prepare for the representroles.Certainactivitiesare role and the normal ways to act in the role. expected of a person who assumes any of Anyone who wants to act in this rule these roles. Jane Blocker assumed the role conforms to these rules. Every role is made of mother. What jobs did you expect Mrs. up of many rules of behavior. These rules Blocker to do? are called norms. How a person chooses a role reveals a great Make a list of the norms which describe deal about that person. Individuals often the behavior of the role of mother. try to assume roles such as life insurance salesman and engineer. Other roles, such as In addition to helping you know about a prisoner, are imposed upon individuals by specific rote such as the role of mother, society. some norms help you know about many roles. Many of these norms are laws. "Do Stating how a person prepares for a specific not kill another person," "Remain fully role also helps you gain information about a dressed in public," and "Drive on the right person assuming that role. For example, hand side of the street" all represent norms theroleofteacherrequiresspecific which have become laws. Norms which preparation. To assume this role, a person havebecomelawsdefineaperson's must go to college, take education courses, behavior in all roles. practice teaching and obtain a teaching Other norms, called customs, also define certificate from the educational agency of the behavior of persons in many roles. the state government. However, customs arenotlaws.For Since roles describe an aspect of a person's example, norms such as "Eat soup with a life, the ability to define a role enables you soup spoon" or "Eat three meals a day" are to learn about people who assume certain customs. One way to distinguish between roles. in order to identify a person's role laws and customs is to ask how a particular and define it you should ask the following norm is enforced. If a norm is enforced by thepolice,thenthe normisalaw. questions: However, if the norm is enforced by social What activities are associated with pressure, then the norm is a custom. this role? Now go back once again to the pictures of the past. For each picture, jot down What preparation is needed for this three norms which define the behavior of role? one of the persons in the photograph. In order to define these norms, you should ask the following questions: A Role Identification Project How is this norm enforced? Look again at the pictures of the past on pages 10-17. Pick one person from one of To whom does this norm apply? the pictures and give a name to the role of that person as suggested by the picture. In what situations does this norm apply? State some of the activities that are associated with this role. What is a Role Cluster? How do you suppose the person you pickedlearnedtodothethings Clearly, a specific role describes only a part required by this role? of a given person's behavior. For example,

1 3 19 thf. role of a factory worker describes only experiences. Recently, a sixth grade class that part of a person's behavior associated from Battleground, IN., spent a thorough- with working at a factory. If an individual ly delightful afternoon conducting such works eight hours a day at a factory, then interviews at the Indiana State Soldiers he or she spends the remainder of the day Home some wit4 persons more than 90 doing something else. In this section we years old. Here is a data gathering project will consider the fact that an individual in a that can easily be simulated or carried out social system assumes several roles, even in reqlity. in a single day. The term role cluster refers to the fact that one individual fills several Try to discover by talking toolder roles. persons(perhapsateacher,parent, grandparent, or great-grandparent) how Like the role of a factory worker, the role of their home life differed from your own. a student describes only a portion of a For example, see if you can learn: person's life. The role of a student refers to thewayanindividualactsinthe What household chorest.heywere classroom. The role of student includes the responsible for doing? following characteristics: does homework, listens attentively, responds to questions Whether more or fewer parts of their from teachers and other studentsand total education was received at home raises a hand before speaking. People do than is now the case? these things only when they assume the role of a student. What sorts of things, learned at home, do they consider an important part of A person who assumes the role of a student their education? might also assume the role of a baby sitter. In this role the characteristics of a student What are the feelings of these people are not very useful. The role of a baby sitter about the changes in education does not require an individual to take particularly the role of the family in notes, or to do homework or to raise a education from the days of their hand. The roleofa babysitterhas own education until now? characteristics of its own. Make a list of other ways we can collect What other roles could be assumed by a information about families of the past. student-baby sitter? Has anyone considered the data contained in a cemetery? A Day from the Past On the pages which followare some reminiscences of homelife in Indiana from From the data we have gathered,itis articles written by William Vogel for the possible for us to begin constructing a Indiana Magazine of History in June and typical day in the life of a family several September of 1914. Use these selections to generations ago. compile a list of activities which probably occurred in a typical household of that To continue this task more data obviously time. Do this in five small groups, each would be useful. One way to gather data considering one topic: work, food prepara- about the relativelyrecent pastisby tion, education, health care and entertain- interviewing persons who can supply such ment. (Prepare copies of each selection for data fromthe memoryoftheirown every group member.)

20 its shade in most places grew a thicket of Home life spicewood, hazel, greenbriars, young sap- in the Old Northwest lings and other underbrush. In these thick woods the pioneer had to chop and grub a little field where he might locate a home I.Work and raise a little crop. In some sections all The pioneers who first came to Indiana trees up to 18 inches in diameter were could not have subsisted except for the felled;all over that size were deadened, abundance of wild game. Many came either by girdling with the axe or burning almost empty-handed and others had food them about the roots. and supply only for a limited period; not enough to last until the maturing of the The pioneer farm was a very independent first crop. For weeks at a time they had no institution,alittle world ofitsown. other food than bear, deer, or wild turkey Everything of daily use was made or meat, on which they lived until they could substituted from its products, except salt. raise a patch of corn. Food, clothing, agricultural implements, So the pioneers went a-hunting. The almost everything that came into daily life woods and prairies were full of bear, deer, were the products of the community. Allthemoderndomesticanimals, buffaloes, pheasants and wild turkeys, and horses, cattle, sheep, hogs and domesti- the streams and watercourses abounded cated fowls were raised. The cows and with wild ducks and geese. Wild pigeons horses, however, were of very inferior size were so numerous that often the sky was because of improper care in winter. Cattle darkened by their passage. A man could were not housed in cold weather and as hay stand on his door step and shoot deer was very scarce, corn fodder was used as a without difficulty. They resorted to the substitute. In summer they were belled and "licks" in great numbers ail through the turned out to range in the woods. Horses warm seasons of the year and the veriest were belled and hobbled. Each farmer could tenderfoot could not fail to bring home a identify the tinkle of hisbells among supply of venison. At Collier's Lick in twenty others. Hags roamed freely in the Brown County a man shot13in one forests, where they fattened in the fall on morning. Another knocked one in the head the mast. By winter time they were in fine with an axe as ii; attempted to run past him condition for killing. Some pioneers paid while he was splitting rails. for their lands by raising hogs inthe An idea of the abundance of game in the woods. early days may be gained from a list of the There were no factory-made implements. fur bearing animals that were hunted for There were, in the early period, no wagon their pelts. Bears, wolves, deer, buffaloes, or blacksmith shops. The pioneers had to lynxes,wildcats,opposums,beavers, depend upon their own resources for such otters,martens,minks,raccoonsand tools and implements as they needed. They muskratsabounded.Wolveswereso made a very good plow with a wooden numerous that the state encouraged their moldboard. When iron was used,the extermination by offering a bounty for plowshare, point and bar were all of one their scalps.In places they had to be piece. exterminated before sheep and pigs could be raised. They oftenattackedlarger II.Food Preparation animals and even man. A Warrick County farmer who turned his horse out to graze Cooking stoves did not come into use one night found only the bones the next until 1820 and even as late as 1835 a large morning. majority of the families prepared their foods in the old fashioned way. In the early The newsettlerfoundaprimeval days cooking utensils were not plentiful. wilderness. In every direction a great forest Thesettlerscamealong way over of oak, poplar, walnut, beech, gum, ash mountains from the seaboard states,in and a hundred other varieties of trees rough wagons and carts, on horseback, and stretched over the hills and valleys, and in even on foot. Consequently it was difficult 1 5 21 to bring many dishes or utensils. Many of muchlikearound dome,resembling the poorer immigrants had but a single considerabl., the old-time bee hive. After skiliPt in their cabins. An old lady relates the oven wus thoroughly heated the fire that when she was a grown woman there was raked out and the bread and pies set in was not more than one vessel for cooking in upon thefloor,the body of the oven any home in the neighborhood and that one retaining enough heat to do the cooking. was nearly always a skillet with a lid. Some made with their own hands rough pots of clay, which served until they could get iron III.Education ones. These crude pots were not glazed so that when meat was cooked the grease The early French settlers cared little for came through the pores and the outside of the pot was continually afire. In the more education.Theonlyinstructionthey comfortable homes the cooking was done in received was given by the missionary large kettles hung with pot hooks from an priests who labored diligently to prevent iron crane over the greatfireinthe the happy-go-lucky soldiers, traders and fireplace. Meat was cooked ina long trappers, who were naturally indolent and handled frying plan which was held over careless, from forgetting the principles of the blaze by hand or set down upon coals theirreligion.In later years,resident drawn out upon the hearth. priests attempted to teach the children to This pan also was usedfor baking read and write, but the frontier Frenchman pancakes, sometimes called "flapjacks," was as much averse to mental effort as to and bread, too, was frequently made on it. physical toil. They had ho education as we Johnny cake was baked on a board made understand the ',erm. All that they knew for this purpose, about 10 inches wide and was handed down from father to son. What 15 inches long and rounding at the top. The was perhaps the first regular school in thick corn dough was placed on the board Indiana was etqablished at Vincennes in which was set against a chunk of wor'l 1793 by a priest named Bivet. So there was the fire. After one side had been bak. no school in the territory until it came into nice brown, the other side was treate;: American possession. the same way. The resulting cake was often delicious. If a johnny-cake board was not at Americanshave alwaysbelievedin hand, a hoe with a handle was cleaned and education. The Ordinance of 1787 made greased with bear's oil. The dough was provision for the training of future citizens baked on this metal surface and was called a hoe-cake. If neither a johnny-cake board in the Northwest and from the very first nor a hoe was to be had, the dough was organization of Indiana, the people have wrappedincabbageleavesorfresh had a deep interest in the education of the cornshucks, laid in a clean place on the coming generations. In one form or another hearth and covered with live embers, which the education question has been before thoroughly baked it. This was called an ash every General Assembly from territorial cake. A better article for baking was a daystothepresenttime.Succeeding covered skilletcalled a "spider."This assemblies have been asked to aid in the utensil stood upon feet and was heated over establishmentofschools,ortogrant the hearth with hickory coals piled over and specialprivilegesforthebuildingof under it; no flame was suffered to blaze academies and seminaries in the various around the skillet. The more prosperous parts of the state. The General Assembly of families used the Dutch oven for baking, especially in the summer time. This was 1821 appointed a committee for the purpose made of bricks and mortar,orsmall of drafting a bill providing for a general boulders, or even tough clay, wrought and system of education. The conception of beaten into shape and burned by slow fires education as a public duty is evidenced by built inside.It was usually set upon a the fact that the committee was instructed wooden platform away from the house toguardwellagainst anydistinction because of the danger of fires, and was between rich and poor. The report of the protected by a shed. In shape it appeared committee was incorporated in the first

22 1 6 general school law of Indiana. and fencingthefarms andindoing hundreds of other things which had to be Schools between 1805 and 1815 were very done on a pioneer farm. The girls learned primitive.Thecountrywassrarsely through the assistance they rendered their settled; in fact half a dozen pioneers located mothers,inspinning and weaving,in two or three miles apart, at that time, making butter and cheese and in dciiig all formed a large settlement. Consequently the little things that a pioneer housewife the children were taught the rudiments of found to do. And besc, of all the training the learningathome.There was usually girls and boys received in those days fitted someone in the family capable of teaching them for their life's work.... the childrenreading,writing and the simple elements of arithmetic. Even in later times, on account of the great distance IV.HeaTith Care from the schoolhouse and danger from wild animals, children were frequently taught at The woods of Indiana were not settled home. This home instruction was not without much sickness, many deaths and altogether inefficient. Twice a week in the greatsuffering.The pioneershadto afternoon the mother, usually, gathered contend against invisible, as well as visible the children around her and taught them to foes and of the two, the former were the read, write and cipher as far as division. most deadly. No part of America, outside They worked with goosequill pens and ink of the tropics, was more subject to malarial made from walnut hulls. Those who were visitatiorithan therichflatlands of old enough read in turn from some book Indiana. taken from thefamilycollection. On Occasionally whole towns were depopu- Sunday they read in the same manner from lated.In the southern border counties the Bible, the stories of which were simply during the years 1820-1822 sickness was explainedbythemother.Sometimes especially prevalent. So alarming was the children from a neighbor's home would join mortality that the General Assembly of the the family Bible class. State set apart a day for public prayer and supplication to the Almighty God, that he In these times of danger it was also the might blessthe countrywithfruitful custom to employ an instructor to go from seasons and bring health and peace to the house to house in the settlement. This unhappy citizens. In 1821 an epidemic of circulating teacher spent one-third of. a day fevers broke out and continued from July with each family giving instructions in the to October during which time nearly every rudiments of education; in this way with person was sick and about one-eighth of the six families he could give three lessons a population died. One-third of the people of week to all the children. When it became Vincennes were confined to their beds with less dangerous for the children to pass sickness. The whole Wabash county was through the forest, they assembled at the especiallyafflictedandthesouthern home of the family most centrally located, counties were never free from fevers. where they were taught in a lean-to built at the side or end of the cabin. A mother or Medical aid was hard to secure. In the elder sister gave a little simple training in beginning there were few doctors and the reading, writing and ciphering. settlers lived so far apart that it was almost impossible for a physician to get around in After all, the pioneer children received times of heavy sickness. More than one their real education in the great out-of- mother watched over her child through the doors, in the forests and by the streams. night, hoping for a visit from the doctor There was plenty of arithmetic, manual who never came or if he did finally come, training and physical culture for the boys, arrived too late to be of any use. in the work they did with their father, building and plastering cabins, clearing The story of suffering from ague forms a

23 1 7 pathetic part of the history of pioneer life. sale. Empty medicine bottles could be seen To newcomers it was a veritable terror and hanging from the walls of almost every inthefall, everybody looked pale and cabin. There were quack doctors, too, A sallow, the disease being no respecter of certain Dr. Burr came to Connersville from persons. From the first of August until the Ohio and advertised himself as a "Root first of October of each year no serious Doctor." He nailed up to the weatherboard labor was undertaken. Sickness reigned of his hotel an enormous swamp lily root, supreme.Atanygatheringhalfthe almost as large as a man, with head, eyes, members wore yellow faces and moved ears and nose nicely carved. Arms and legs about with heavy lassitude. The sickness were attached and above it appeared the began with chillof indefinite duration, glaringsign,"JosephS.Burr,Root followed by a burning fever which lasted for Doctor: No Calomel." People came from all hours. Sometimes the attack came every parts of the country to see the doctor and day, but generally onalternatedays. the big root and he quickly established a Frequently the paroxysms of shaking were lucrative practice. He granted diplomas to so violent that the bed upon which the sick studentsuponthecompletionofa person lay would creak and rattle. three-week course of study. As a result the county was soon filled with root doctors. With so much sickness the life of the old-time doctor was not an easy one. Poorly V. Entertainment trained and poorly equipped, it is amazing thattheyaccomplishedanything.No The lifeof the pioneers was notall course of preparation was necessary and no hardship and deprivation. They had many license was required before they began to pleasures and amusements to relieve their practice. Some of them were men of little hard toil. There was no lack of wholesome character and could be classified only as fun and frolic. Our fathers lived an isolated quacks. Most practitioners received a little lifein sparsely settled communities; so, training in the office of another physician: any neighborhood social event was antici- some relied on natural wit and experience pated with delight and glee that was almost alone and hung out a flaming clapboard childish in its nature. Social pleasures, too, sign at thefirst opportunity. Quinine, were largely connected with the neighbor- calomel, tarter emetic, castor oil, salts, and hood tasks of the settlers. If logs were to be jalap were standard remedies and a large rolled, the neighbors assembled toroll lancet for bleeding was found in every them;ifa cabin was to be built,the medical case. With his saddlebags full and pioneers came for miles around to assist. a good hardy horse, the pioneer physician There were cornhuskings, sheepshearings, counted himself the equal of the mightiest apple-parings,sugar-boilings, quilting disease. Whiskey was a universal remedy for malaria and did not need a doctor's bees and hog-killings. prescription. It was considered the best The pioneer himself could fell the trees of possible remedy for the bite of a poisonous his farm, cut them into proper lengths, snake. A person, when bitten, was made to clear away the brush and limbs, but in drink as quickly as possible large amounts order to roll the logs into a heap for burning of the firey intoxicant. Our early grand- he was compelled to call in his neighbors. mothers were experts at gathering herbs, On the appointed day, they all came with from which teas and bitters were con- their wives and children; the men to pile the cocted. logs and the women to cook for the feast that always followed the work. Logrollings, It was a time of quackery and quack at first sight, do not suggest fun and medicines. Often in the sickly season all the pleasure, yet they were eagerly looked quinine in the shops was consumed. Then forward to, especially by the young people. the settlers had no remedy except boneset Such undertakings meant much hard work, and gentian. The sick were ready to try nevertheless the toil itself was turned into anything that promised relief and pills with sport and play. When the last log was in formidable names, guaranteed to cure a position feasting and enjoyment began. whole category of diseases, found a ready Usually the men were separated into two

24_ 1 8 divisions, and the clearing was apportioned The husking of corn was an important so as to give each division relatively the work and was a neighborhood affair. Both same amount of work. Each chose an sexes participated. They usually assembled experiencec: man as leader and when begun, in a large barn which was arranged for the the contest never flagged. The section occasion, where they sat in a circle and which first disposed of the last log was played "brogueitabout"whilethey declared the winner. This was no little worked. Each gentleman selected a lady honor, for the victory would be discussed in partner when the husking began and under other settlements and praises of the heroes the zest of the frolic, the work progressed sung far and wide. As great individual with surprising rapidity. When a lady rivalry occurred among the younger men, found a red ear she was entitled to a kiss some amazinerfeatsof strength were from every gentleman present; when a performed. A favorite test was to deter- gentleman found one he was entitled to kiss mine which of two men could outlift the every lady present. Then, after the old other, each lifting at one end of a log with a folks had left, the remainder of the evening handspike. After the work was done the log was spent in dancing and games. heaps were fired and a hundred bonfires reddened the sky. A more beautiful sight can scarcely be imagined. One of the chief public entertainments of Logrollings were especially frequented the 'early settlers was the spelling school. It by candidates and politicians. Here they was looked forward to with much anticipa- had an opportunity to present their claims tion and anxiety. When the time came the and defend themselves against trivial or wholeneighborhoodorevenseveral unfounded charges. But such seekers we' neighborhoods,cametogetherforan required to show their mettle. Sometimi intellectual contest. Two young people rival candidates were assigned as leaders of chose sides and the teacher who was master opposing sections of workers. Then work of ceremonies pronounced the words. They proceeded under the highest stress. In fact spelledinvarious ways, each section some enterprising farmers, it is said, made having itsfavorite method. Sometimes a practice of deferring their logrollings until they spelledacross, sometimes "word- campaign time (some kind of an election catchers"wereemployed,againthe was held every year),about a month "spelldown" process was the means of preceding the election, in order to reap the determining the contest. After the match benefit of the labor and enthusiasm of the the country swains took the girls home, various candidates. often by very roundabout ways.

1 9 Families Past and Families Present Ifthisdata had been collected ona chalkboard, the board now would look At this point in our consideration of the something like this: See chart 1. family we have talked about some of the features of families present and some of the featuresoffamilies past whichreveal There should also be, other placeson the interesting data about theirrespective board, the following summaries of discus- societies. sions and group interactions: See chart 2.

- Present: Future sOriltifeorfrifer.s.Pf a sa90. some featiges:.of our socle frOrrlIrica..PerOP-eottv,e, pf:::,. . , aMarriedmani- 0 'OCly:40e frortithe pent' -Work a young unmanied woman

a martletWorna education a young unmanied man heatth Cate

entertainMen

le?..tdentificatIO e role :''mother" 'norms for.the role r mother"

mec,otpetSOn:'s:iple;.as- tug other ithiS;plaki 4 , 'might be assumed by a -Pe,tson whohas the roles of '!student" and rteonS.dO .

haviorslearned ways. ofgathering data about families in -the past . plctures.:: inteMews'

26 2 0 More About Role Clusters Similarly, the fatherly behavior of P is indicated by the clear portion of circle two: In our consideration of family life at a certain point in the American past, we looked at a variety of different kinds of things that families did. This strengthens our notion that throughout a given day one person assumes a variety of different roles depending upon the situationat a particular time and place. The concept of a person as a cluster of overlapping social roles can be represented by a series of intersecting circles like this: Thus, individual P is defined in his roles as father,husbandandfarmerbythe intersection of circles 1, 2, and 3.

Let circles 1, 2, and 3 represent three roles assumed by the same person, P. Suppose the roles were: A Role-Cluster Exercise

1. Husband Part I 2.Father 3.Farmer Choose a person from the exercise, "A Day From the Past" with whom you can easily For any one person to assume the role identify. List three roles assumed by this "father," is to engage in scme but usually person and arrange them on a diagram like not all of the behavior associated with that the one below: role. Let's say that the husbandly behavior of person P is represented by the clear portion of circle one:

2 1 27 Part II a.How few and how many members can be called a family? Make a similar diagram of your own role b.What is meant by "the family of cluster. Use the three roles which seem to mankind?" occupythemost timeinyour own c. How do families begin and end experience. or do they? d.Why do so many families seem to begin with a religious ritual But What, After All, is a "Family?" (the marriage ceremony)?

Throughout this unit we have been using 2.Who are the members of my family? the term "family" as though everyone understands and agrees on the meaning of a.Are persons no longer living at the term. the same place part of the same family? Let's test this assumption. b.Are grandparents andother relativespartofthesame A useful definition enables us to include family? certain things in a given category and c.Are children and grandchildren exclude everything else. For example, if I not yet born in any sense part of have a clear understanding of the term a family? Do family responsi- "horse," I can observe anything in the bilities extend to such future entire universe and say of it, either, members? a.it is a horse or b.it is not a horse 3.What are some of the functions of a family? Can we do this with "family?" Let each of several small groups take one or more of the illustrations which follow. Families Literal and Families Metaphorical 1. Tosaywhetherornotthe Sometimes we change the meaning of a individual or group in the illustra- term slightly on different occasions when tion constitutes a family. (Note: we use it.If this does not happen too Consideronlythepersonor abruptly and other people understand what persons actually appearing in the we are doing, no harm is done. However, if illustration. Dr) not consider any we change the meaning of a word too otherpersons whose existence sharply and too suddenly, other people may be implied by the picture.) becomeconfusedorsimplydonot understand our meaning. 2.How did you decide whether or not theillustrationconstituteda Sometimes, a word is not intended to be family? taken with its ordinary iLeaning but is used as a figure of speech. When the small groups have finished, compare results. Look at each of the following phrases which contain the word "family." Isitpossibletoobtainacomposite definition of "family" from the efforts of For each onesay whetherthe word these small groups? Let the whole group "family" should be understoodinan construct such a definition. ordinary senseor whetheritisused figuratively. How does Lis definition enable us to respond to the following questions? If it seems to be used in a normal way, what exactlyis.its meaning inthis 1. What constitutes a family? phrase? 2 2 28 If it seems to be used in a figuratively future? Can this discussion be translated way, what is meant? into the future tense'? Two fruitful devices, used by futurists to Education and the Family help think constructively of alternative futures are.the "futures wheel" and "what Some people have suggested that a family if" questions. Here lc, an exercise which is a place where things are learned. For combines the two techniques in an attempt example, the family is where one learns to think about families and education in the acceptable social behavior. The family is future. where one learns how to rear a child. In order to focus more clearly on the specific educational contribution of the A "What If" Exercise family In societies that are less bureaucratized, Make a list of some activities that 12- lessindustrialized and lesstechnology- year-olds normall:, engage in at home. oriented than our own, a good deal more of thetotalequipping ofthe youngfor How are these things learned? participation in the adult society is handled in the home. Some people believe that in How do you yourself contribute to the our contemporary society we have asked education that goes on in your home? theschoolsandotherformalsocial institutions to do more along this line than In order to see family-based education in a they can or should handle. broader perspective, prepare a short list of things that are learned in our society in 1. WHAT IF 50 per cent of the families of school-aged children in America each of the following contexts: came to the conclusion that the some things some things public schools were not doing the job learned at learned in that needs to be done and decided home school to care for the education of their children themselves (in the home, in private schools which they control, or in some other way): some things learned some things Working in small groups: through mass learned only communications by private a.Make a list of five things that media experience would result from this "ify" situation.

b.Now make lists below each of some things those five results of several learned from some things additional things that would another person as learned from result from each of the first an instructor a religious five. or model community c. Do the same thing again with these last results. Now compare the work of the entire Families, Education, and the Future group and make a composite list, eli- minating duplications. So far our consideration of families and education has been concerned with the 2. WHAT IF runaway inflation, result- present and the past. But what of the ing in the inability of the govern-

2 3 41 ment to collect more taxes and an, The need for self-actualization increase in the costs of goods ana (theneed to be everything services, make it necessary for- your itnhga)t e i scapable of becom- school corporation to cut its services exactly in half for the coming school year: WHAT IF the present trend for chil- 4.dren to spend more and more of their What would go and what would early childhood outside of the home stay? (Programs.) (in nursery schools, daY-care centers, pre4ondergartens, and such) Who will go and who will stay? continues andreachesthepoint (Personnel) where children are, in effaenct, reared bY Professional Parents Whom will we educate'? 5uppositio1 of Alvin Toffler,the biological Parents would not only _.gladly surrender their children to Which thingsthat go car be fthe profes sional parents] but would successfully handled at home? look upon it as an act of love, rather What are some results of the results listed to the above ques- think such a state of tions? affairs might actually come to Pass? 3. WHAT IF public education expands in the next two decades so that by If it does, would you approve or the mid-1990's children enter school disapprove of such an arrange- at six months of age and the schools ment? areforthe most part boarding schools children return home only What are some of the results that for holidays and vacations: wouldfollow fromsuchan Which ofthefollowingbasic arrangement? human needs do you suppose would be cared for moreade- What are some of the results of quately in such a situation and those results? which would be cared for less adequately? (Try arranging your resultsand sub-resultstothis exercise on a Physiological needs (for wheel like the one below) example, the need for food and water) Safety needs (the need for security; freedom from fear; the need for structure, law, and limits) Belongingness and love needs (the need to be free of lchh- ness,ostracism,rejection, friendlessness, and rootless- ness) Esteem needs (the need for a high evaluationofoneself, and the need for the respect of 1, 2, 3 & 4 first order results others) a, b, c . second order results 2 .1 42 5.WHAT IF your class wrote some V. Major decisions will be made by "what if" questions like the ones above?

A Concluding Exercise To summarize some of the results of this VI.The division of labor to keep the unit, consider your own family situation home functioning will be 10 years hence. Instructions: Imagine the date to be exactly 10 years in the future of today's date. VII.Money Management

Working with one other person of the A.The source of family income opposite sex and about your same age, will be sketch in the following parts of a family agreement. Try to be realistic in your anticipation of the future, but since this is strictly an imaginary situation, you can be as utopian as you wish. I.The purpose of the B.Decisions about money will family is to be made

II.The members of this family will VIII.Thisfamily'srelationshipto include society will be understood in the following ways: A.Religion

III.The rightsoftheindividual members ofthisfamilywill include B.Service clubs and organizations

IV.Theresponsibilitiesofeach member to other members will include C.Education

2 5

43 "The Individual in the doing something about the future.

Emerging Present" Why Worry About Tomorrow? The danger of the past was that men Education has traditionally looked to the became slaves. The danger of the future past. Its function has been to reproduce a is that men may become robots. cultural heritage. Gradually, the educational systems of industrial cultures have Erich Fromm shifted their focus to issues of the present. The Sane Society Now we are urged simultaneously: 1. By the traditionalists that it is essential to The purpose of this unit is to introduce revive our commitment to basic education some simple techniques for thinking about that is, to the assured values of the past the future to those for whom "futures and 2. By the futurists, that the industrial thinking" is a new idea. era is past and that the increased tempo of the electronic age calls for education that is One of the most immediate and personal geared to the future. decisions we make concerns a career. Later in this chapter we will focus on the choices Thequestionis:Why worryabout we all make about our own futures in the tomorrow? Is our relation to our potential career decisionprocess.First, we will futures really any different from that of any attempt to enhance our creative aproach to past generation? the future in general. Then we will limit our thinking to the future of our own career. One way to begin to grasp something of the predicament of the human species is to Our interest is not in a nebulous "future" chart a few bits of established data. Here is far away,,generally unknown and in fact a brief data base from which we can unknowable. Our concern rather is with construct a dramatic chart. what Robert Hanvey prefers to call the "emergent present". This is the nearer In 8000 B.C. the population was esti- futurewhichtouchesourownlives mated at about five million. It had taken immediately. about 21/2 million years for it to double. It took another 10,000 years for the If the testimony of numerous observers populace to reach 500 million about 1650 corresponds even slightlytoreality, A.D. It reached a billion people in 1850, there are difficult times very close at doubling in only two hundred years. It hand, within the boundaries of what we took only 80 years for the next doubling /night call the emergent present. Those as the population reached two billion matters that engage our attention, that about 1930. Now our population is 4 shape our thinking and activities now billion having doubled in 35 years. those are part of our present. For the present, after all, includes not only the Instructions: immediate instant but the recent and the Duplicate the chart (figure 1) so that each soon. person has a copy. One distinctivecharacteristicof being Chart a world population of 4,000 million (4 human is the capacity to understand the billion) for 1975. past and plan the future. Thus, a critical alternative in the process of becoming fully Mark the following data and population functioning persons is whether our future is points on the chart: something that happens to us or something we do as a result of our own intelligent A.D. 1650 500 million decision. 1850 1,000 million (1 billion) 1930 2,000 million (2 billion) The goal of this unit is to acquire skills for 1975 4,000 million (4 billion)

2 6 45 8,000MILLIONS OF PERSONS 6,0007,000 ts 4,0005,000 3,0002,000 1,000 500 FigureA .D D. 1 1400 1500 1600 1650 1700 1800 1850 1900 1930 1975 2000 2100 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 7,0008,000 6,000 A.D.Data 1300 Points 193018501650 --- 2,0001,000 400500 4,0005,000 201020001975 -- 4,0008,0006,900 3,0002,000 1,000 500 FigureA.D. 2 - - 1500 1650 1700 00 1850 1 00 1930 1975 2000 2100 Estimate the population point at A.D. 1300 cultivate all possible arable land on earth. and mark this point on the chart. Calculate the smount of agricultural land Connect these points with a smoothly rleeded by the world population in A.D. curving line. 1650 (multiply the 1650 population by 0.4) and plot this point on the chart. Plot the Assume a continuing doubling time of 35 need for agricultural land in 1850, 1930, years and plot the approximate population point on the chart for the year 2000. 1975 and 2000. Continue the population line through this Connect the land need points with a curved additional point. line. Figure 2 shows the chart as it might appear Draw a line all the way across the chart at when completed. 3,200 million hectares to represent the fixed Now use the population information from limit of arable land on earth. the chart you have just made, together Calculate the amount by which the land with the following data, to construct an available for agriculture must be reduced in even more alarming chart. Use figure 3 in 1850 (multiply the 1850 population by 0.08) the same way figure 1 was used. and plot this point on the chart. Additional data: At present levels of agricultural producti- Plot the reduced amount of arable land for 1930,1975and2000.Connectthese vity (on a world average) 0.4 hectares of reduced land points with a curve that cultivated land are required to feed one originates on the fixed amount of arable personataworldaveragelevelof consumption. land line. Questions: Note: One hectare is a little less than 21/2 At what point do the two lines cross? acres. What is the meaning of the crossing of Note: To feed each person at present these two lines? U.S.levels would require0.9 hectares. Figure 4 illustrates a completed version of For every person, 0.08 hectares of arable figure 3. land must be used for non-agricultural purposes such as housing, roads, waste disposal and such. Feelings About the Future Recent studies indicate that there are, at One way toelicitpersonal ideas and most, about 3.2 billion hectares of land feelings about what is conceptualized as [7.86 billion acres] potentially suitable "the future" is to ask persons to identify a for agriculture on the earth. About half future possibility with a definite date. of that land, the richest, most accessible half,is under cultivation today. The For example: remaining landwillrequire immense What year do you associate with the capital imputs to reach, clear, irrigate or following ev ants? fertilize before it is ready to produce food. Recent costs of developing new The future land have ranged from $215 to $5,275 per A solution to the pollution crisis hectare. Average cost for opening land in Your own death unsettled areas has been $1,150 per hec- The end of the species Homo sapiens tare. List responses to tliese questions on a chalkboard. What reasons, if any, can be Instructions: givenforpreferringoneindividual's Assume that, despite the cost, we decide to response over the others?

48 2 9 MILLIONS OF HECTARES OF ARABLE LAND 4,uuU 3,000 3,200 2,000 1,000 A.D.Figure 1650 3 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 MILLIONS OF HECTARES OF ARABLE LAND 4,000 A.D.1850Available 1 1930 I Land Data- 3,100- 3,000 1 Points 1 3,000 3,200 20001975 - 2,900- 2,600 2,000 A.D.Land 1650Need 1850 --- Data Points 400200 1,000 200019751930 - 2,800- 1,600 800 FigureA.D. 4 1 650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1930 1950 1975 2000 20 Opinions About The Future proportions of the group who believe a given item will or willT1,4occur and A Survey proportions who favor or d( favor the occurrence of an item. Severalfuturists and futurescurricula developers have discovered that an opinion The most interesting itemsforfuture survey isusefulinstimulating futures discussion will be:1. Those which the study and thinking in a group. group believes will happen and yet they do not approve and 2. Those which the group Following is such a survey developed for believes will not happen and yet would the Anthropology Case Materials Project approve of if they did occur. These are the at the Social Studies Development Center, sorts of conflict issues which prepare us to Indiana University. do something about the future since they challenge us with the discrepancy between Prepare a copy of the opinionaire for each what we anticipate and what we really person in your group. desire.

This instrument can be used in many INTRODUCTION: The following ques- different ways. For example: tions ask you for your opinions about the Responses can be given in small groups, way Americans willlivein the future. after some discussion of each item or Please answer the questions carefully and individually with discussion following. completely don't skip over items or leave blanks on the answer sheets. Even if you Values can be explored by rank-ordering might have trouble understanding direc- the items about which persons have the tions or words, please do your best to strongest positive and negative feelings answer. and the items about which persons are most indifferent. Remember that these questions ask you for your opinion there are no right or wrong Results can be tallied and cherked for answers.

3 2

51 PREDICTIONS FOR 1985

Suppose that someone predicts that the followinghappen by checking one space. If you are uncer- changes will occur by 1985 or before. tain, guess. Then go to Column B, assume that the change will take place, and indicate whether or not For each item indicate in the left hand column,you approve of the change, (even if you don't Column A, whether you think it will or will notreally believe it will happen.)

Column A Column B I believe it: If it did happen, I: will won't PREDICTION FOR 1985 don't happen happen approve a pprove 0 0 1. People will not go out as much but will find 0 0 their entertainment in front or the television set.

O 0 2.Church attendance will increase. 0 3. A larger proportion of the working population will be employed by government local, state or federal.

O 0 4.All information about a person where he lives, works, his purchases and savings, his taxes, insurance, marital status, traffic tickets, etc. will be stored in a central government computer and available to government offi- cials and to organizations who wish to check credit.

O 0 5.Proportionately less money will be spent by the federal government on defense and more on improving life in our cities.

O 0 6.Advances in technology especially automa- tion will replace many of the monotonous, semi-skilled, low-responsibility jobs with jobs calling for increased skill and individualre- sponsibility. O 0 7.The UnitedStateswill no longer be the 0 0 world's greatest military power.

O 0 8.People will be admired for buying andcon- 0 0 suming as littleas possible rather than as much as possible.

O 9.All nuclear warheads will he dismantled

O 10.There will be a growth of day-care centers for young children.

O 0 11. Students will be able to take all necessary 0 0 courses for high school as television courses received on home TV sets. O 0 12.There will be as many female as male mem- 0 0 bers of Congress. 52 3 3 Column A Column B

believe it: I it did happen. I:

will won't don't happen happen approve approve O 0 13. The UnitedStateswillno longer be the 0 0 world's greatest economic power. O 0 14. Women will no longer think that being a 0 0 housewife or mother is the most important thing that a female can do with her life.

0 0 15.Jobs that require a high school diploma today 0 0 will require at least two years of college.

O 0 16.Increasing numbers of people will reject what 0 0 they view as the hurried, impersonal, competi- tive life of the cities and turn to life in rural communes.

O 0 17.Medical care, including dental care, will be 0 0 available at very low cost to everyone through government health plans.

O 0 18.Internal combustion engines (asin today's 0 0 cars) which burn gasoline or oil will be out- lawed.

O 0 19.The governments of all nations will agree to 0 0 destroy allexisting nuclear weapons and to outlaw their use.

O 0 20.There willbe a guaranteed income for all 0 0 families sufficient to provide good food and housing.

O 0 21.School attendancewillbe voluntary after 0 0 completion of the eighth grade.

O 0 22. Many kinds of factory jobs, clerical jobs and 0 0 even selling jobs will be eliminated by compu- tets and computerized machinery. O 0 23. The economic well-being and political power 0 0 of blacks, Spanish-speaking Americans and Indian Americans will be strongly improved. O 0 24.Cities will seek to reduce pollution and traffic 0 0 congestion by regulating the use of private automobiles, imposing much higher gasoline and license taxes, restricting entry to down- town areas at certain times of day, etc. O 0 25. A larger proportion of young adults will con- 0 0 .sciously decide against marriage.

O 0 26. The Japanese will become the most techno- 0 0 logically advanced nation in the world. 53 3 4 Column A Column B

I believe it: If it did happen, I: will won't don't happen Imppen approve approve 0 0 27.Certainactivities deemed harmfultothe 0 0 planet's environment (dumping containers of radioactive waste in the ocean) will be regu- lated by world law, backed up by powers to punish offenders. 0 0 18.The standard work week will be four days in- 0 0 stead of five. 0 0 29.Many new occupational fields Will open up. 0 0 providing enough new jobs for people whose old jobs become obsolete. 0 0 30.A woman will be allowed to bear only one 0 0 child because of the dangers or overpopula- tion.

Indicate whether you agree or disagree by checking one of the spaces for each item.

agree disagree MARK ANSWER SHEET ONLY 31. New inventions are causing more trouble than they are worth. 31.People were happier in the past when they didn't have all the modern "conveniences." 33. The white people of the world always have had the most advanced technology.

34. Technologicalprogresskeepsournation strong and we should encourage all possible inventions.

In your opinion, which of the following developments represent "progress for mankind?" (Checkas many as represent progress.)

35. The SST (super-sonic transport) which carries passengers at 1,500 m.p.h

36.nuclear bombs

37.exploration of the moon

38computer selection of potential marriage partners

39color television

40.birth control pills

41.nuclear power plants 3 5 54 Thinking Future in School Thereisnothingesotericabout these devices. Adults of any age can learn to use For most of us, thinking constructively them. Students at any grade level can be about the future requires certain adjust- taught to think inthese ways the ments in the way we ordinarily think. younger,theeasier.Forthefutures techniques in general describe the creative, For the most part we have been conditioned holistic way in which children think before to think in ways that actually hinder us they come to school. One futures educator from creating the sorts of futures we would and writer, Betty Franks, has captured desire if we were given the choice. this notion in her expression: "Children are natural futurists." The facts are, however, we have been given the choice. All of us have, potentially, a The firstarticle, "Teaching About the good deal more to say about the kind of Future" is by Allan Peakes, Paul Burnim, future that will be ours than we ordinarily Mark Cherniak and Christopher Dede. At admit and surely more than we usually take the time it was first published all four advantage of. contributorswereassociatedwiththe program for the Study of the Future in The articles which follow will provide a Education at the University of Massachu- general introduction tofuture thinking setts Amherst. The article appeared in with particular emphasis on future think- essentially this same form in Instructor, ing in the schools. In these articles some of August/September, 1973. the favorite techniques of the futurists are "Futuring: A Look At Tomorrow Today" described: is reprinted from the January, 1973, issue Linear projections of Instructor. Its author, Jerry Glenn, has Non-linear systems thinking been with the University of Massachusetts The futures wheel Amherst and the Committee for the The cross impact matrix Future, Inc. He now directshis own "What if" exercises corporation,Future Options Roomin The Delphi technique Washington, D.C.

3 6

55 Schools are not now fulfilling these goals. Teachhig About the Futtwe We asked children in a day-care center in Historically, education has been influential Amherst, MA, to draw pictures of their in determining the directions of American past, present and future activities. Most of society. Our civilization's present is not these children's drawings of the future were changeable, but its future can be influ- far more vivid and dynamic than their enced. As educators, therefore,itis our pictures of past and present. The reason? responsibilityto help students develop The kids said they anticipated that the short-term and long-term goals for them- future would be more fun than the past or selves as individuals, for the nation and for present. Yet when a similar exercise was the world. tried with secondary students, the young- sters' vision and enthusiasm were missing; Helping students to develop these goals is high school students found thefuture a process made difficult yet at the same unimaginable except in vague terms. time urgent by the swiftness with which technologyhasadvancedinthelast One of the reasons for this disparity is that hundred years, resulting in broad social ourpresentcurriculumsandteaching upheavals. John Platt has used these methods offer little support for the pursuit approximations to illustrate this poin0 and construction of images of the future. Yet theburgeoningfieldoffuturism 1865-1965 demonstrates that a multitude of persons Control of disease 100 times greater in widely ranging fields feel that the future Speed of travel 100 times faster can be shaped. They are also developing Energy resources 1,000 times greater skills and building a body of knowledge Speed of handling data 10,000 times about how to do it. faster Power of weapons 1,000.000times greater Can Futures Thinking Be Taught? Speed of communication 10,000,000 times faster What is this "future" that we have been discussing?Anyattempttogivea Never before have human beings gained definitive answer leads us straight into such vast power over nature in such a short philosophical discussions and endless con- period of time. Never has it been necessary fusion. However, we can make several for our social structures including our general points. educational system to change so quickly to keep pace. Their inability to change First, our perception holds open for us the quickly enough has made our present experience of the here and now. But unique. through our normal consciousness there is an awareness of what Dutch futurist Fred In its struggle to control its technological Polakcalls"theOther."2ThisOther powers, Americansocietyislikelyto represents imagination, vision, images of a undergo considerable cha-tge diming the differentcontext ofspace/time.These next 30 years. Children from kindergarten images are to be found in all cultures, both on,mustbegiventheskillsand in individuals and in society and includes information they need to act as responsible such ideas as a lost paradise, Valhalla, citizens during this period. The goals of ancient myths, future utopias. such "future studies" are 1. To help each individualdevelophisown waysof Second, we perceive past-present-future in thinking about the future, enabling him to two ways. We watch the clock proceed anticipate the events that will influence his through a linear sequence of numbers. This life; and 2. To develop the potentials for lineartime encouragescause-and-effect growth so all may live in a future of their thinkingandhelpsusorganizeour own choosing. 2Polak, Fred. The Image of the Future. 1Platt,John. "What We Must Do,' (A msterdam : Jossey -Bass, Elsevier Science, 28, (November, 1969), pp. 115-21. Scientific Publishing Co., 1973), pp. 3-4.

3 7 56 activities. But we have another awareness children to the concepts of change and of time. We sometimes notice that hours continuity. Specifically, students are asked pass more quickly or slowly, even though to trace their own physiological develop- the clock has not changed its rate of speed. ment up to now; then what they expect to We "lose track of time." Our thoughts and look like in 10 years. Doing the same for dreams are often expressed in other than classroom pets and plants furthers these one-two causal ways. concepts. Patricia Guild of the University of Massachusetts integrated day program As these two points suggest, the most has developed a mind-stretching addition important component of a futures curricu- to this exercise. She furnishes the children lum or "methods set"is a reality base with depictions of 80 items, starting with involving a past-present-future tense and separate parts of the human body and linear/nonlinear thinking. Someone might including parts of animals, fish, birds and logically ask how a classroom activity can machines.(You can dothe same by have its base in present realityifitis drawing them on paper or cloth or cutting concerned with what is yet to happen. But, from magazines.) The children are asked to why not? Today always contains some of place these parts on a flannel board to the characteristics of yesterday; yet it is represent a future body. unique. Tomorrow will have similarities to today; yet be different. What will cause the Such activities almost invariably result in difference? In what direction? students asking questions concerning these changes of being. They'll ask, "Why did I Every event has a past that consists of grow this big?" "Will I look like my sister multiple causes.Italso has afuture inhighschool?" "Whywill I look consisting of multiple possibilities. We are different?" Topics for discussion include used to deepening children's understand- how the child grew to his present state and ings of a present event by helping them some of the ways he can anticipate growing learn about its history. It is equally valid to in the future. The interaction of the child help them speculate knowledgeably about with his environment can be shown using the event's future. theconceptthatthingswillchange tomorrow. It can then be pointed out that theelementsofthechange andthe Techniques for Teaching the Future anticipated rate of change combine to form a trend in this case, the trend of the Our approach to "futurizing" the curricu- child's future growth. lum is not to add another course to an alreadyoverloadedschedule,butto incorporate futures ideas, tools and appli- Next we can introduce the idea of multiple cationsintoeverysubject.Insocial causes and multiple results. A good way to studies, science, even such study areas as do so is to show students how to use a physical education,thefuture can be device called the "Futures Wheel" origi- introduced as a legitimate time frame for nated by Jerry Glenn of the Program for speculation and disciplinedexploration. the Study of the Future at the University The viability of this approach lies in its of Massachusetts. (See Instructor, Janu- flexibility.Existing curricula need only ary '73.) To draw a Futures Wheel, a label slight modifications. You need no new for an idea, trend, object or activity is teaching skills, just a new attitude and written in a circle which can be thought of understanding. Resource materials are not as the hub of a wheel. Related ideas are really needed, either, although they are placed around the circle at the end of the helpful and are beginning to be available. lines that form the spokes. The wheel can Byusingtheideasandtechniques be used either for the present or the future, discussed here, you can help your students' although each should be self-consistent. awareness of the future tense become an One wheel could show the causes of an integral part of the learning process. event while a subsequent one could chart the hypothetical paths of the future of the We have found that body analogies can be same event. As the wheel grows more effective vehicles for introducing primary complex and the events more interrelated,

57 it becomes easier for the student to grasp round could be institutediftime and multicausal concepts. interest allow. The final set of answers can then form the basis for a lively discussion. Another device useful for future studies, The teacher should point out that informed especially for older children, is the Delphi opinions have a better chance of being technique. Questions about future events correct but a far-out, intuitive estimate are asked of a number of persons, who must may turn out.to be right. back their opinions with reasons. The questions can ask when an event might Another technique that can be used is occur, its desirability, and possible social scenario construction the creation of a consequences. The replies are circulated story that describes a future situation and and the participants asked if they would the plausible events that led up to it. An like to change their original estimate or example we have used with grades four to repeat and support it further. This is done seven is the story of a visitor from outer once more and a final report is compiled space. He has announced his arrival on from the last round of replies. Delphi is earth and his intention either to destroy the considered a good way to stimulate and earth or make it into a paradise. Students cross-fertilize ideas about the future. are asked to construct the possible events that led up to the situation, explaining the An example of how to use this technique to reason for the visitor's journey. introduce new future concepts is to ask students to choose from alternative dates The scenario also can be used to create thelikelihoodof some occurrence. A alternative pathways toward the future. starting set of questions could concern For example, students,individually or short-range events: What day will the jointly,couldwritesixbiographical cafeteria serve spaghetti? What day will sketches, each concerning 50 years in the the principal wear a red shirt? life of a person on each of the world's inhabited continents, who finally meet and Long-range questions can be given a choice compare notes. of answers (Tomorrow, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2001, 3000, Later, Never) and students asked to give their most A good example of how futures studies can thoughtful estimate. Such questions might result in a highly effective and motivational be: When will school become year-round? studyunit wasaprojectonfuture Voluntary? Attended only by means of TV? communities by Lauren Marx and her third Or,whenwillwe beabletolive grade at Crocker Farm Elementary School underwater? When will the span of life in Amherst, MA. Once the children had become 100 years? Students write their achieved sufficient understanding of the chosen dates and reasons for their choices techniques we have discussed, 14 lessons and the range and distribution of answers were developed on today's school, com- are compiled: munity, wants and needs, interdependency and so on; then moved into planning '.....: a model community, predicting changes e. ',.. and a changing You. Ft---'6600C'Os000...?.>0..rl0.0 Cs ..... =00 The students found it necessary to travel outside the school to many places. They Question A 415 1 32 1 explored the viewpoints of parents, government workers, shopkeepers and farmers in Question 13 35 411 1 / a multiplicity of situations. Through these elementary lessons in applied economics, Question C 879 1 sociology, psychology and government, pupils were able to internalize the need for social institutions, to keep things running Inafewdays,thequestionnaireis and resolve conflicts. repeated, this time including the chart and again the answers are charted. A third In using these futures tools, our experience

58 3 9 has been that teachers who tend to prefer a project your thoughts into thefuture. traditional type of classroom feel most What is the most ordinary thing you could comfortable with the techniques of intro- be doing in five years? What is the most ductory trending, the Futures Wheel and extraordinary kind of life you could be scenario construction. The Delphi tech- leading? What plan could you make now to nique,thefuturebodyandsimilar improve the probability of an alternate activities and projects such as the future future? community are perhaps better suited to open classrooms. If you feel overwhelmed by the potential for nonimaginable experiences, you are not At this point in your reading, try a simple alone. The possibility that almost anything exercise with yourself. Try to remember can happen seems as powerful as the what you were doing five years ago at this possibility that we can choose our futures. same time of year as much of the But it is this choice, guided in some way by experience and your feelings at that time as our personal images of the future, that you can recall. What were your images of leads to new experiences and growth. The the future then? What did you think that work at the Program for the Study of the you would be doing now? What has Future in Education at the University of changed? What eventsthat werenot Massachusettsisdirectedtowardthis imaginable then have occurred, for you process of helping individuals learnto personally and on up to the entire planet? "realize" alternative futures in the context Move up to the present. What do you of all their potential learning opportunities. imagine now? What are your deepest It is your privilege to do the same for your concerns for yourself? For the world? Now students. 0

4 0

59 Take a topic as familiar as transportation, Futuring: A Look for example. Futuring this topic calls for At Tomorrow Today considerationofsuchaspectsasthe situation as it is today, the question of Over the years we have created learning using individual versus mass-transit vehi- environmentsthatenablestudentsto cles, the availability of a plentiful and discover the past more freely than ever economic fuel supply, the need to move before. But it is no longer adequate for large numbers of peo)le quickly, the safety children to learn about the past. Nor is an of vehicles and the fact that people will uncritical awareness of the present ade- demand convenience and comfort in getting quate. To insure survival, psychological as from place to place. Pupils will think of well as physical, man must learn to think related aspects the need to allocate even about the possible futures that can grow more land areas for transportation routes, the possibility of staggering working hours from the present; he must understand more in high industrial areas to alleviate traffic fully what. has to be done today to prevent jams, the significance to the economy of the undesirable and create a more desirable fewer personal vehicles being manufactured future. because more and more people use the Because we have concentrated the major mass-transit systems. As pupils discuss partofoureducationonpastand some of these possibilities, their view of partial-present awareness, our nation has today and its problems will lead them to been surprised by race riots, widespread consider actions and decisions that must be done now to solve future problems. drug abuse. . .pollution,depletionof resources, crime, violence, rising anxiety. If our science teachers had facilitated our You can then go on with this more highly thinking into the future, we might have developed future-oriented. . .process.It recognized the possibility of widespread may be divided into four steps. drug usage, pollution and technology's 1. Each student identifies for himself the devouring of resources. If our social studies trends of a particular topic. teachers had led us into thinking into the 2. Individually or in groups, students future, we might have recognized the make projections into a future date possibility of widespread anxiety, race riots describing what life may be like, deter- and cultural violence. This is not to say mined solely by those trends identified that teachers are solely responsible for our in the first step. social failures. But education is part of the 3. If that future state is not desirable, problem and hopefully will become a strong students then invent and describe what element in the solution process. would be desirable. 4. Finally, students work back in time Partly because our education did not use from the desirable future moelel to the the past and present to anticipate possible present in order to learn what needs to futures, our people are demanding "crash" be done to bring about a more accept- programs to solve pollution, racial and able future. violence problems. Let's investigate more closely what each of We must develop and test...approaches these steps involves. that will help young people think in an anticipatory way ahuatfutureconse- quences. Such thinking will serve two Trend Identification purposes. First, it will help" students to lookfor and recognizefuturetrends. A trend is an influence on human behavior Second, it will make them realize that the that noticeably increases or decreases over future depends to a great extent on what is time. It must be existent in some form in happening in the present and heighten their the past and present and reasonably awareness of present occurrences. expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Population increase is an example How do you foster such an outlook?... of a trend.

60 4 1 List trends that are mentioned in a class Students might go through magazines to discussion increased use of motorized cut out pictures of increasing or decreasing vehicles,increasedamountsoffringe influences on people like pictures of more benefits provided with each job, decreased locks on doors, fewer religious pictures on numbers of one-man owned and operated Christmas and other holiday cards and so businesses and farms and so on. The list on. can be almost endless as pupils begin to think. One way to help students understand the complexity and implications of their trends To illustrate the effect of trends on people, is the use of a future wheel. A pupil writes a suggest pupils think of a trend as a magnet that attracts or repulses. Then imagine a trend in the middle of a sheet of paper, then bunch of magnets arranged on the walls of draws lines out from the center, like the a cylinder. With the cylinder lying on its spokes of a wheel. At the end of each line, side, the front end represents the past, the he writes the factors and the results of the middle, the present and the end the future. central trend. Small pieces of metal might represent people or groups of people. As these metal This technique clearly demonstrates that a pieces are thrown through the cylinder, singletrend cannot be thought of as they will change their straight-line trajec- isolated from othei factors in society. After tory depending on the relation of the trend identification, we must see where magnets to each other and to their pull on such trends might take us. the metal pieces. The overall paths of the pieces together going through the cylinder may be thought of as the course of history. Here is an example of a pupil's wheel:

more oil slicks

shorter lives more oil wells more pollution less human teachers more more pollution fuels & gases more gas stations (rore computer teaching / earlier more death carbon monoxide

more more motorized eating vehicles more and laziness machinery

4 2 61 Future Projections Based on the opinions of the community and projecting those opinions, we can say Where are we going? Groups of four or five that we expect that the cost of skiing will students might get together to put their increase nine times from 1950 to 1980. trends on one wheel for projections or to (Some pupils are sure to argue, of course, put them together on a graph. Many future that the facilities for skiing have much forecasts are made simply by graphing. improved over those years. It's true that Plot a trend from some point in the past to the higher cost has brought with it new and thepresent,then withadottedline more efficient ski lifts, better cared for continue out the curve to the date which slopes, luxury ski shadrs with all sorts of you wish to project. This is the forecasting conveniences and so on another topic for tool used by those who say. "If present further deliberation.) trends continue, we can expect the world population to double in the next thirty Another way students can put their trends years." It may be difficult for pupils to get together is with the cross-impact matrix. data with which to plot a graph, so here's a Team up four or five students into groups. suggestion.Suggesttheysurveythe Ask the groups to put their trends together community or students in the school as to and have them discover the interrelation- how much eachthinkssomethingis ships. Each person's trend is listed down in increasing or decreasing. Let's say the a column at the left of a piece of paper, then trend isthe increasing cost of skiing. listed again across the top of the paper. A Suppose they call the cost of skiing for each checkerboard matrix is made and filled in. individual 100 in the year 1950. Then ask To complete each box ask, "If the trend in what it would be called in 1960, and 1970. the down column continues, how willit Did the cost go up two times, three times? affect the trends in the top row?" This Pupils could average all the responses they technique canbeusedtoshowthe secured to arrive at a figure for graphing. interdependency of almost anything... Here'sagraphthatonecommittee developed: Future Models inr With these tools or others that you and . lot flit:Ind It Id thilfont your students can think up, launch into discussions,simulations, games,brainstorming sessions or whatever. With these experiences as background, have individ- I 00

I g5t) 19611 1970 Example of a matrix: MORE MORE MORE SPACE MORE CIGARS PLANES PHONES TRAVEL WASTE MORE Special rooms More people Cigars take More ashes CIGARS for people to smoking while up oxygen in waste smoke in talking on not allowed airplanes phone

MORE Manufacturers Phone booths More waste PLANES coming up on airplanes given off by with cigars planes they can serve on pbnes MORE More space Radio phones Unused phone PHONES taken up by on passenger materials in phone booths ships dump

62 4 3 uals or groups of students write, paint, seed, water, necessary nutrition in the soil create a play, make models to explain in and sun. So one's policies would be to find some way what the future might be like land and seed, check the soil and see to it based on the trends identified assuming that water and sun isavailable.Itis that no intervention occurs to change the obvious that corn will never grow if one of trends significantly. The students should those policies is not actualized. Similarly, decide on a date in the future that they all the students' desired future will not come wish to consider. A play expressing a day about unless certain decisions and actions in thatfuturelifeshould helpclarify come first. Can pupils figure out what are students' ideas as to jobs, status, family the necessary steps to the future they living and other important issues of that desire? Do they have a reasonable chance of time in the future. It should also help them completing the steps? begin thinking whether or not that future is desirable. Suppose your group wishestobegin putting some of these steps into motion. It will be interesting to note the differences Then a brainstorming session is in order to between students' projections. The as- develop as complete a list as possible of all sumptions each makes about the future is the policies which must happen to achieve one way of understanding one's actions in their desirable future. Once the larger list is the present. Discuss with pupils why there made, have each student individually cross are differences. Are they confusing what out all those policies he or she could not they think will happen with what they work on due to personality, age, geogra- would like to see occur? phic position or other factors. From the remaining policies, cross out all those that This easily launches into a discussion of would not begin to yield visible results or what they believe is the best future or what desirable by-products within six months they want the future to be like. If the date (people tend to be remotivated by positive of the projections is 1980, suggest pupils results of actions). Then from the remain- explain in some form what they want 1980 ing list, pupils can pick the ones they would to be. Try to help them "taste, touch and enjoy doing the most. This is a simple feel" what that desirable future might be method for finding policies that make a like... difference, are important for a better future and that have a reasonable chance of being carried out. Policy Creation This... processisbynomeansa What must be done for a better future? The complete or perfect model....It is one example of a tree may be helpful to show approach. One caution don't do steps students how to trace back to th9 present one and two and stop there. This tends to tense from the desirable models of the leave students with a negative view of the future. Think of one leaf on a tree as the future. If you are going to do steps one and desirable future model among many other two, go on to at least three so that pupils leaves (other possible futures). For the don't become molded into one view. It is water to get from the roots to that leaf, it not important that the steps be done in must travel through many "forks in the sequence. We have begun the process with road." The forks may be thought of as step three, sometimes with step two. It decisions or actions. The water has to make seems to be "easier" for pupils to begin "correct decisions" at each fork or else that with step three, but we have not observed leaf will never grow. In a like manner, long enough to know if students learn and certain policies (actions or decisions) must create more useful information by begin- happen for the desirable future to grow out ning at any one step rather than another. of the present.If growing cornisa And, of course, there are an infinite number desirable future, then there must be land, of ways to begin any step.

4 1

63 Making a Futures Wheel you wish, you can then run out consequences of the consequences and so Let's practice with one or two of the devices forth. This gives a future orientation to we have read about, beginning with a the understanding you generate from "futureswheel."Thiscanbedone your original item in the middle of the individually, or in a large group. However, circle. it is interesting to let several small groups each make their own wheel from a single Let's say you are reading about Africa idea, then bring the whole group together and wish to understand Pan-Africanism. to compare results and make alarge Place the term in the middle of the circle composite wheel from the several smaller and put associations at the end of the wheels. spokes. For the center of the wheel, use any idea of For examples, see figure 5. For work- which you read in the articles or any idea sheets, duplicate figure 6. that is of interest to your group. Here is one more example and instruction set if you need help getting started. Naturally, this can get out of hand if you keep running new lines out. There are Place anything you want to understand visual and spatial limits! (event, trend, idea, or whatever) in the middle of a small circle in the middle of a paper. Draw lines spoke-like out from After you have written some of the first your circle. At the end of the lines write order associations, put circles around them what goes with it its implications, andrunoutmorelinesforfurther consequences, associations and such. If associations.

new loyalty problems trans- state tribal nationalism contact

increased Pan new political Africanism intellectual activities elites

declining trans- power nation- of states tribal communi- chief new cations institutions

Figure 5 4 5 65 4 6

Figure 6

66 Figure 7 Jamocha Almond Rainbow Fudge Vanilla Pistachio Peach Sherbert Jamocha Almond Fud2e

Vanilla

. Pistachio

Peach

Rainbow Sherbert

How Many K.s of Ice Cream? example, here is another suggestion from Jerry Glenn. The human needs (safety, The cross-impact matrix is another useful love and belongingness, physical, esteem) tool for thinking about the future, since it listed on the left side of the figure 8 matrix can enable even the least creative among us are taken from Abraham Maslow's Motiva- to visualize the interrelatedness of a variety tion and Personality (New York: Harper of causal factors. The matrix can be a and Row, 1954). In this book Maslow mechanical way of fostering "creativity." presents his classic formulation of human For example, try making a cross-impact needs. matrix with five flavors of ice cream. Figure 8 demonstrates the use of the How many flavors can be created by matrix to determine the interrelationships mixing two flavors at a time? of universal human needs from Maslow and some global trends. On a separate piece of What will these flavors be? paper, list what these relationships are, that is, how one influences the other. For How many of them sound appealing? example, box 11 would be answered by asking, "How are your esteem needs Do you see interesting flavor combina- influenced by urbanization?" After listing tions that you would not have considered answers to the 24 different boxes, go back without seeing them on the matrix? to the original trends to see how they might A math problem for ice cream eaters: bemodifiedtoenhance human need What is the formula that will tell us how satisfaction. many new combinations are possible on this kind of matrix, regardless of how many flavors we include? The Immortality Game If ice cream seems trivial as an example, try a more serious matrix using your own Here is an opportunity to try a number of ideas generated from interests in your future-oriented techniques together. The group. "Immortality Game" requires the use of a futures wheel. It calls for commitment on seriousvalue-questions.Itrequiresa A Human Need/Trend Matrix personal choice. It can lead us to think seriously of the possible consequences of If you are ready forareallyserious alternative courses of action.

4 7 67 Science,/ Urban- Population Technoloizy ization Transcience

Physical -1 3 4

Safety 6 7 8

Esteem 9 10 11 12

Love and Belongingness 13 14 15 16

Self- Actualization 17 18 19 20

Aesthetic 21 __1, 23 24

Information Base: Task 5 LatelastspringtheSalkInstitute Project yourself into a time when the developed a vaccine which, when injected, vaccine is available for the asking. Write a will stop aging for one year. If it is injected letter telling why you want to use it or why yearlythen the animalreceivingthe you do not. injection will be "frozen" in time and will not age. The cost is 10 cents per shot. It does not need refrigeration. An Epitaph Task 1 There is no topic more difficult to discuss You sit on a super secret decision panel freely than death. Greater taboos surround that will decide whether or not you will the discussion of death than any other topic allow this vaccine to be announced and/or including politics, religion and sex. This used. There are probabilities thatthe is one reason why the future itself is so informationisalready intothe under- difficult for us to face realistically, since ground but nothing has yet been substan- any serious looking to the future involves a tiated. Good luck. looking toward our own deaths. Task 2 Many psychologists now argue that much If you decided to disseminate the vaccine, of human behavior is explicable in terms of you must then suggest the method for that the repressedfearofdeath. We are dissemination. Please be as specific as you gradually coming to see that our ways of can. dealing with death are even more deter- minative of our behavior than Freud Task 3 supposed were our ways of dealing with If you decided not to disseminate the sex. vaccine, please be prepared to defend your decision. On the other hand, we are being urged by those in both the recent fields of death Task 4 research and futures research to take death Using a futures wheel, please placethe seriously on the ground that preparation vaccine in the center and then listthe for death also is the best preparation for possible effects of the vaccine. Listthe life. Thus the Center for Death Education effects of those effects and at leastone andResearchattheUniversityof more level beyond that. Minnesota argues that "coming to terms

68 4 8 with the fact of death can offer a more This exercise need not be morbid but can be meaningfullife"in adeath-denying a very useful tool in getting us to think culture. Likewise, Dr. Elizabeth Kubler- about our own personal futures. Ross, in On Death and Dying has argued that the stages of dying are also stages of living; that the acceptance of one's own Future Values death is the key to the acceptance of all lesser losses in life as well as the key to the Additionalinformationaboutfutures acceptance of life's joys and blessings. thinking, its relation to values inquiry, and some excellent exercises, are contained in Thus it seems appropriate to ask students Future Values For Today's Curriculum." tothinkabouttheir ownfutureby This article by Drs. Richard D. Van Scotter consciously writingtheir own epitaph. and Jon Cauley first appeared in Scholastic Includeinthesketchthefollowing Teacher (February, 1974) and is reprinted information: with their permission. Date of birth Virtually all of the exercises suggested by Schooling Van Scotter and Cauley have a bearing on Jobs held the choices one makes with reference to If and when married future careers. Obviously, some of the Information about children if any items are especially pertinent to this unit. Manner of death For example, the -What Would Life Be Age at death Like" exercises are clearly important to Manner of interment (buried, cremated, planning a life of meaningful work as we body to science, etc.) face the future.

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69 Future Values to a variety of curriculum areas, particular- For Today's Curriculum ly the natural sciences. In the past, social studies has been an Dr. Richard D. Van Scotter is an assistant instrument of values enculturation in the professor of education at Grinnell College schools. Enculturation has been brought andDr. Jon Cauleyisanassistant about by teaching an acceptable body of professor of economics at Arizona State knowledge acceptable to the academic University. They developed the ideas for disciplines, society and the community this article at the University of Colorado, largely through textbooks. where both men earned their doctorates and served on the staff. Contemporary social studies demonstrates a shift in emphasis toward values clarification and analysis. Though by no means has . .A retired crane operator rocks back and forth on a mild summer evening telling this shift been complete. As Alan Tom his great-great-great-grandchildren what it explains in An Approach to Selecting was like to grow up in the city when he was Among Social Studies Curricula (published a young boy. He has been retired for 70 by Central Midwestern Regional Education years, over one half of his life. He now is Laboratory in 1970), social studies class- 130 years old, thanks to medical advances roomsstillembrace twoincompatible which have arrested aging, and he can positions. One he distinguishes as "devel- expect to live another 50 years. oping student's ability to make rational value judgments." Nevertheless, there is a shift away from teaching values to teaching ...A college presidentbesiegedwith student requestsfor control overthe about values. curriculum, elimination of grades and a voice in hiring teachers, sends a memoran- The movement toward values clarification dum to the food services director.The and analysis is not likely to decrease in the memorandum states that henceforth all years ahead. The treatment of values in students will be served food containing a thisfashion has been emphasized, we harmless, undetectable drug that will make suspect,for several reasons. Clarifying them docile, obedient and uncritical. values providesa means of resolving conflicts in values. The Harvard Social .. A physicianenters animpressive Studies Project is a prime example of this laboratory containing 500 artificial wombs. position. It starts from the premise that Emerging from the wombs are 500 male the "American dilemma" is based on the babies,geneticallyalike.Nine months existence of incompatible or conflicting earlier their "father," a prominent engi- values in society. Analyzing values pro- neer, IQ 160, donated some skin which had vides a process of arriving at a rational, been scraped from his leg by a physician. data-based position when valid judgments are necessary. The study of values also serves to foster open, flexible and tolerant Today these events are fiction. Continued studentbehavior.Thesequalitiesare advancement in already rapidly developing necessary to cope intelligently and justly areas of biological research will make them with the social problems encountered by a reality someday. The value or moral citizens in our society. questions prompted by such developments will be staggering for society. Generally, values or value judgments have been studied in the context of present time. If past values enter the curriculum, they do Values Education so coincidentally, through the transmission of tradition, beliefs and knowledge related Values education has had a place in the to the enculturation process. general curriculum for some time. Though this article focuses on the social studies, its Future values have been neglected also in subject matter and exercises are applicable social studies education, even though their

5 0 71 study would be consistent with values Future Values in the Curriculum clarification and analysis. Presumably the study offuture values has notbeen Values are the spectacles through which a included in the curriculum for at least two society interprets the world around it. For reasons. First, it is argued, teaching the better or worse, they provide the basis for young to openly approach today's values human beings' social interactions within issues and make rational judgments will theinstitutional framework they have enable them to make thoughtful decisions built. The study of values in the social at any time in the future. Second, future studies curriculum has been aimed at values cannot be anticipated. There is no building a more free and open society. The reliable way of know ng what the issues of inclusion of future values in the curriculum tomorrow will be; therefore, they must be adds a crucial dimension to this quest. dealt with as they arise. Future values can be developed around at least two distinct themes: students can The future, however, is not as mysterious identify and examine current social trends and unpredictable as one would believe that have implications for society in the from looking at a school curriculum today. future; students can analyze the impact on As the opening sketches suggest,the society of current and future technological advent of numerous physical, biologicai changes. and technological breakthroughs is within the predictable future. Chemical control of Social trends affect the future.Ronald aging in man can be expected sometime Lippitt" has identified several trends that shortly after the turn of the 21st century, represent relevant images of the future for some 30 years from now. The use of drugs educators. One of these he describes as a to alter specific aspects of human personal- trend toward "less and less tolerance for ity is predicted by futurists for as early as depersonalization, for being lost in the the 1980s. Human cloning, a process in mass;lesstoleranceofpressuresfor which the nucleus of an ovum is removed conformity and more expression of anti- and replaced by a somatic cell (allowing the establishment feelings." Symptoms of this developmentinahost mother of an trend, Lippitt points out, are evidenced in identical twin of the person supplying the the music of pop culture, in the marked cell) may be operational by the year 2010, if increase in attendance at religious classes research continues at the present pace. on campuses andinthetremendous development of personal-growth programs for adults across the country. These scientific advances and many others Other trends relevant to the general school could have profound effects on the nature curriculum include urbanization, pollution, and value structure of society in the future. economic growth, energy depletion, genetic The profundity of these breakthroughs is engineering, space exploration,planned intensified by the quantity and rate at environments; the list is virtually endless. which they are occurring. As Alvin Toffler hasillustratedso dramaticallyinhis Some lines of inquiry emanating from these best-seller, Future Shock, the advent of trends can be posed by the following these changes begets many additional questions: What changes in our current changes. Change istaking placeata values will be necessary for a continuation continuallyacceleratingrate.We are supporting these advances by both re- of this social trend? Will any new and search dollars and public approval. Their different values develop as a result of this effects, however, will be realized not by us, but by future generations. The ramifica- 'RonaldLippitt,"The Dimensionsof tions of today's values and the research Change: In Our Society. Our Students patterns they reflect deserve study by the and Our SocialStudiesCurriculum," students of this generation who will be Publication #134 of the Social Science making decisions both now and in the Education Consortium, Inc. Boulder, CO, future. 1971, pp. 2-3.

72 future trend? Will these changes in values 1. Place the following six values on the tend to make a more open society in the chalkboard. Adjacent to the values con- future? If not, what changes could be made struct two columns labeled Past to Present to halt this trend or channel it'? and Present to Future. Sensitivity Lc) the environment Monetary achievement Toward A More Open Society Through Naturalism, i.e., appreciation of nature Future Values Material progress Good health The study of future values today is critical Self-centeredness (or disregard of others) for the construction and maintenance of an 2. Take as examples two social trends, open society simply because individual and economic growth and pollution. Discuss social decisions today have direct value the relationship of the six values to these consequences for future generations.11, two social trends. For example, ask: "How these value structures become inflexible as doessociety'semphasisoneconomic a result of neglecting the vast range of growth affectone'ssensitivitytothe future possibilities of a society, that society environment; likewise how does a sensitiv- will become more closed. A later decision ity to the environment affect our economic may be too difficult to implement; that is, growth policy?" our values may beforced upon later 3. The students then should consider generations as a result of current techno- whether each of these six values currently logical developments creating an irrevers- is deemed more important than in the past ible social situation. For example, if a ( + ),less important (-), or of the same scientific breakthrough prolonging human importance (0) as in the past. Record the life is made and applied to society, future total number of pluses, minuses and zeros generations will be forced to assume the in the Past to Present column beside each economic, social and ethical responsibilities value. The class should sum the pluses and even though they had no say inthe minuses of each value to obtain an index decision. score; zeros can be treated as neutral responses and ignored. For example, if a Therefore, consideration must be given to classof25studentsgavemonetary the consequences to future generations of achievement 20 pluses and 5 minuses, the today's research and development deci- index score would be +15. sions. It should be possible for them to 4. Next, ask the students if they expect initiate their own changes commensurate each of these values to become more with their value preferences. In order to important in the future ( +), less imporant adequately provide for such future freedom (-)or remain the same (0). Record and of choice, it is mandatory to study future total the responses in the column labeled values with an eye to long-range social Present to Future and obtain another index planningfor maintenance ofan open score. society. 5. Discuss the two scores obtained for each value. Are they different? How much The following exercises are designed to give are the scores different? Why are the scores studentspracticeinidentifyingsocial different? trends and in analyzing their effects on 6. In conclusion, the teacher should pose future values. the following questions: "What might have been the consequences, both now and in the future, if changes in these values had not Changing Values occurred?" "What socialpolicieswere enacted as a result of these value changes?" What society defines as social problems, "With reference to the column, Present to current or future, and what it considers as Future, do you anticipate future social alternative solutions to these problems are legislation regarding pollution and econom- based onvalues.As valueschange, ic growth?" priorities are rearranged and new problems replace old with a resulting shift in national Other trends can be analyzed in the same goals and policies. In view of this: way.

5 2 73 What Would Life Be Like If... discuss the reasons for their stance on each issue. In this exercise students are asked to consider what their lives would be like if Preface each of the following questions certain events happened in their future. with, Who believes that... Each student should select a future event from the list below and prepare a short schools will consist almost totally of theme or composition on how it would teaching machines and students will affect his or her life. For example, if a learn by themselves at their own student takes "What would life be like if I speed? become very wealthy someday?" he or she .the life span of human beings will be could examine his or her own beliefs about well over 100 years? the desire to do hard work, friendship, .children will be raised more strictly respecting others, welfare for the poor, than they are now? intellectual virtues, self-reliance and so on. .. .life on other planets will be found? Here isalistof other future events .. babies who are exact facsimiles of students could use for their compositions. another human being will be produced What would life be like if.. .. artificially? people will be able to communicate you could visit other planets as you through E.S.P.? visit other cities today? . people will be able to alter their per- you retired at age 45, but lived to be sonalities in specific ways by takinga 145 years old? drug? . you could communicate with others .. people in cities will walk around wear- using E.S.P. (mental telepathy)? ing pollution-protection masks? it was decided that 50 babies, the . enclosed cities will be built in outer exact duplicate of you, would be arti- space? ficially produced? .enclosed cities will exist at the bottom . you lived in a "raceless" society? of the ocean? . cars were only available to rent or lease on long interregional trips? The class can discuss whether or not these . yourjob became obsolete every five scientific and technological changes will years? occur and also whether or not they should . it was necessary gradually to reduce occur. The latter question shifts the focus the nation's economic growth rate? of discussion from predictions to future . you were only allowed to fill one small values considerations. garbage can per week? you lived in a domed city under the ocean? Evaluating Future Innovations . the personalities of your friends were constantly being artificially altered? Reproduce onthechalkboardthe 10 . you could read people's minds? possible scientific discoveries below and . you had a sophisticated computer im- constructfivecolumnslabeledVery planted in your brain? Favorable, Favorable, Little or No Con- cern, Detrimental, and Very Detrimental. Discuss briefly each discovery toassure Predicting Future Innovations that students understand. Dates inparen- theses are expert predictions for these This exerciseisdesigned to introduce breaktluoughs.3 studentsbriefly,butdramatically,to potential future innovations. The teacher is 3From "Forecasts of Some Technological to read aloud one-by-one the questions and Scientific Developments and Their listed below. After each question is read, Societal Consequences," a research report those students who take an affirmative for The Institute for the Future, Inc., position should raise their hands. After 2725 Sand Hill Rd., Menlo Park, CA completing thelist,theclassshould 94025.

74 5 3 1. Chemical control of the aging process, increase in life expectancy, the panel could permitting extension of life span by 50 examine the consequences as follows: years with a proportionate increase in the 1. Economic: An increase in life expect- number of years of vigor (2015). ancy also will increase the number of years 2. Sustaining the human body in frozen in which a person remains productive. Thus storage,therebypermittingittobe a 100-year life span implies that growing brought back to life at a later date (2025 numbers of people beyond the age of 65 plus). may wish to be employed. Leisure time 3. Development of "raceless" societies would increase and expenditures for use of among at least one half of the world's this time also wouldrise.Our social population through interbreeding(2025 security structure will require revision. The plus). enlarged senior citizen population will have 4. Availability of cheap, non-narcotic unique consumer demands, such as low- drugs (other than alcohol) for the purpose speed automobiles, artificial organs, pic- of producing specific changes in personality ture phones and household robots. In spite characteristics (1980). of the presumed vitalityof theolder 5. A process in which the nucleus of an population, a maximum age of employment ovum is removed and replaced by a somatic law might be enacted so that younger cell, allowing development in a host mother people can work. of an individual genetically identical to the person supplying the somatic cell (1985). 2. Social: A shifting of the median age of 6. Control of people's behavior by radio the population may be accompanied by stimulation of the brain (1985). greater urbanization. Great leisure com- Availability of complex robots which munities may be formedtoresemble are programmable, self-adaptive and capa- periods from the past. This artificial return ble of performing household chores, such as to a more gracious age would provide preparing meals and cleaning (1980). retired citizens a choice, for example, of 8. Use of mental telepathy as a mode ot Colonial or Gay Nineties cities having communication (2025). modern advantages but requiring strict 9. Discovery of information proving the adherence to the mores and technology of existence of intelligent beings beyond the the earlier era. earth (2025 plus). 3. Political: The older people may form a 10. Maintenance of the human brain political group of considerable power and outside of the body for one month (2025). significance. It is likely that they would have a large and therefore strong enough Poll the students to obtain their opinions power base to enact special legislation. on the impact of each discovery if it were 4. Ethical: The sustaining of life, not applied to society in the near future. After unlike the begetting oflife,places an the votes for each discovery have been increased obligation on society, especially recorded in the appropriate columns on the if the people expect life to be increasingly chalkboard, the class can offer reasons for enjoyable and stimulating. If the decision- their responses. Following this discussion makers are to maintain an open society have the students vote on whether or not to thatprovidestheindividualwith an apply the discovery to society. increasing quality of life, they will have to be responsive to many of the economic, social and political consequences described Technology in an Open Society above. 5. Ecological: Other things being equal, Assuming a scientific discovery is applied longer lives mean that more people have to to society, the class should examine the be supported at any given time. An economic,social:political,ethical and increase in the population has far-reaching ecological consequences. Divide the class effects on the supply of natural resources into five groups, one for each consequence. neededtosustain humanlife.These Have them prepare for a panel discussion. resources can be depleted through human One member from each group would make consumption, land development and dis- up each panel. For example, assuming an placement and pollution.

5 4 75 Other technological innovations whichcan cloning, frozen storage of the human body, be successfully explored by the panel in programmed robots and personality change light of the five consequences are human by drugs. 0

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76 life plan and job choice or better, a series Planning A Life of of job choices. This is not the final project Meanfigful Work in this unit and it is not expected to be complete or final. For that matter, no life Now that we have begun to think about the plan should be regarded as complete and future and to see the systematic interrelat- final. The purpose of this exercise is to edness of every aspect of the future of the generate personal,existential questions universe (that is, believe it or not, what we about the future. Ideally, our preparatory have begun to do!) let us start to think futures exercises now will begin to come to more specifically about a life of meaningful afocuson the matter ofvocational work. planning. For example,thinkbrieflyaboutthe Instructions: assertion made above. Is it not the case The year is 2025. that the career options that will open to me, the options that I will find attractive and You are preparing to apply for a job. rewarding, will be affected in one way or another by: Your task is to write a resume (a one- or two-page summary of information about The price of oil in the Mideast yourself that will give your prospective The decisions of the U.S. Congress to employer a quick, comprehensive picture engage in scientific research programs of your qualifications for the job). The rate of population change The development of computer technol- Your resume should include the following ogy data: The discovery and development of alter- Personal matters native energy sources Name My own physical well being Age The extent and nature of my education Address And if these things have an obvious impact Condition of health on my career decisions, is it not reasonable Family structure that the following things also have such a Hobbies bearing though perhaps less obviously: Personal interests Changes in the average annual rainfall in Education Argentina List all schools attended Changes in the gross national product of Brief statement of subjects studied the Central African Republic Diplomas, degrees if any Progressive increase in the number of Other educational experiences sunspots Work experience By this time it may appear that if all these List all jobs held things are relevant to career decisions, then Employers addresses planning a career for the future must be a Dates of employment complex matter. If this is so all is well. Reason for termination Theinherentcomplexityofsystems thinking is making its presence felt! Community service Social and political activities A Resume Project Membership in social or service organizations The following project has the immediate Religious affiliation practical value of acquainting students and others with the mechanics of writing a job Reasons for wanting the job for which resume. The future scenario also will force a you are applying 5 6 77 Three references These alternatives may seem to be exactly Give the names and addresses of the same. However, one way of looking at three persons who are able to com- the map tends to see routes diverging from ment on your fitness for this job. the point of origin. The other tends to see routes converging on the destination. Here are some things that should come up in the discussions surrounding this project: It would be a good idea to stop here and practice this with an actual road map. The probability of several careers in the 50-year span Education andreeducationfornew A Trip to Chicago careers The probability of family changes Task 1 A great deal of mobility (both physical Plot a route from your hometown to and socio-economic) Chicago beginning at your hometown Many outside activities and interests in and drawing the route toward Chicago. the community More diverse use of leisure time Task 2 Plot a route to Chicago from San Diego. Many students do not realize that in This is the direction you will be travel- 2025 they will be only 50 years older, in ling. But plot your route from Chicago to most cases about 65. Further, they do your starting point at San Diego. not think of persons this age as being young and vital members of society. But Task 3 many persons that age are now vital Plot a route between Chicago and New members of our society and this is likely Orleans. This time begin at both ends. to be much more the case in 2025. The First, trace all the principal routes out of resume therefore is an excellent device Chicago. Continue to extend the routes for getting at some very important and their main branches that seem to be values issues. running in the general direction of New Orleans. Follow these routes and branches until you are about half way to New A Decision Tree Orleans. Now do the same beginning at New Orleans. Trace all the main routes The concluding exercise in this unit is to out of the city. Follow several northerly construct a decision tree which will map out routes and branches until you are half some possible career objectives and graphi- way to Chicago. You now should have cally show the crucial decisions that must several possibilities to choose from in be made along the way. getting from New Orleans to Chicago. See if you can identify: In order to do this, think of the future as the area on a road map. Compare various The quickest route possible and attractive career goals to cities The shortest route on the map. The task is to plot a course The most scenic route from where we are to the place or places we A route that will enable you to deliver would like to go. Notice that it is useful to a package personally to a client in know: Kansas City. 1. Where we are A route that will take you through 2.Where we Want to go Nashville There are at least two ways to plot such a Task 4 course on a map. One is to begin where we Repeat Task 1 (a route from your home- are and plot the course toward the chosen town to Chicago) with the following con- destination. The other is to begin at the straints: destination and work back to the point from which we are going to start. Do not use any Interstate Highways

78 57 Do not use any U.S. Highways "Gee, that's swell," said the Sea Horse, [Hint: You may need a different map and paid the money and put on the flipper or maps than you used the first time.] and slithered off at twice the speed. Soon he came upon a Sponge, who said, Task 5 Using Chicago as a goal, show how one "Psst. Hey, bud. Where 'ya goin'?" would get into Chicago from any place in "I'm going out to find my fortune," replied the country. How would I know, depend the Sea Horse. ing on the place from which Istart, which route to take into the city? "You're in luck," said the Sponge. "For a smallfeeIwillletyouhavethis jet-propelled scooter so that you will be Another Trip able to travel a lot faster." So the Sea Horse bought the scooter with Plananautomobiletripfromyour his remaining money and went zooming hometown. You have a sufficient gasoline through the sea five times as fast. Soon he allowance to travel 1,400 miles. came upon a Shark, who said, Your task is to trace the route you will "Psst. Hey, bud. Where 'ya goin'?" take. "I'm going out to find my fortune," replied the Sea Horse. Jot down your response to the following while you are tracing the route: "You're in luck. If you'll take this short cut," said the Shark, pointing to his open How do you decide which route to take mouth. "you'll save yourself a lot of time." out of town? "Gee, thanks," said the Sea Horse, and Which direction do you go at the first zoomed off into the interior of the Shark, major intersection? there to be devoured. Why? Which road will you take at the next The moral of this fable is that if you're not major intersection? sure where you're going, you're liable to Why? end up someplace else and not even Do people ever take trips without know- know it. ing where they are going? Do people ever live life without knowing where they are going? A Career-Decision Tree The task of mapping a career has many similarities to the task of mapping a route A Diversion for an auto trip. Please stop and read the following story by Robert F. Mager in his book, Preparing Futurists use a device called a decision tree (or relevance tree) to show how I can get Instructional Objectives. from where I am in the present to where I Once upon a time a Sea Horse gathered up would like to be in the future just as we his seven pieces of eight and cantered out use a road map to plot the way from where to find his fortune. Before he had traveled I am to where I want to go. very far he met an Eel, who said, Here is an example from the work of Jerry "Psst. Hey, bud. Where 'ya goin'?" Glenn, together with a blank decision tree "I'm going out to find my fortune," replied for you to use for your own car2er plan. The the Sea Horse, proudly. example is a hypothetical chart of possible career states facing a college freshman "You're in luck," said the Eel. "For four beginning in 1973 and projected to 1985. pieces of eight you can have this speedy Notice that the branches in the tree are flipper, and then you'll be able to get there major points of decision. Notice also that at a lot faster." certain pointsitispossibleto move

5 8 79 sideways on the tree; however, if a major other changes in the domain of the career career change is made after 1981 (say from map. news correspondent to university professor) considerable backtracking would be The point of this unit was not to provide required. Some people consider this a waste opportunitytocollectallthedata of time. Others do not. necessary to make a really adequate career plan only to introduce a few futures Caution: techniques into the continuing planning Career plans are the sorts of things that which we all should be doing if we want to need constant revision in the light of new have any freedom and control over our own information, the making of decisions and futures.

47- '44 q LC.77' c C., Q.c ,... e cy fc.;` 4 ..+ ..+ 05" 1. College Freshman 1985 2. College Drop-Out 3. Insurance bales 4. World Travel 1983 5. Computer School 6. College B.A. or B.S. 1981 7. Full-Time M.A. Student 8. Part-Time M.A. Student 1979 9. Peace Corps Volunteer 10. School Teacher 11. Computer Programmer 1977 12. Import/Export Company 13. Foreign Correspondent 1975 14. Ph.D. Candidate 15. Research Corporation 16. Senior Systems Analyst 1973 Individual Decision Tree for Career

1990

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

3 1976 Do Your Own Decision Tree for career, lifestyle, personal growth. Make it your autobiography for the future.

80 5 9 Acknowledgements

This project represents the accumulated knowledge of several educators concerned about creating a continuum between the past, the present and the future. Direction and guidance were provided by Ann Pictor of Springfield, IL, John Harrold of Indianapolis, IN, Roger Wangen of St. Paul, MN and Leslie Davis of Madison, WI, all representatives of their respective state education departments; and Dewey Wahl, an associate superintendent of the Indiana Department of Public Instruction, who supervised the project. Stuart Lazarus, curriculum developer at the Social Studies Development Center in Bloomington, IN, provided materials and editorial assistance about the family as a resource for social study. Counseling and materials related to futures studies were supplied by James Becker, director of the Mid-America Project at the Bloomington center and Joel Barker, a consultant with the Futures Studies Department of the Science Museum of Minnesota in St. Paul. I'm particularly indebted to Harold H. Negley, superintendent of the Indiar aDepartmentofPublicInstruction,forenablingthe department's Division of Public Information and Publications to edit and illust,rate the project. Barbara Thompson, superintendent of the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction, furnished staff and funds to print the Studies. Finally, working on a project that encourages children to think about the future constructively, within a framework of respect for and understanding of the past and the present, has been an extremely rewa - ding experience. And it seems particularly appropriate that during a year in which we are celebrating and commemorriting our nation's origins we also are inducing students to think about the kind of future they want for themselves, their families and their country.

6 0

81 Notes "The Individual in a Family" Pictures of domestic life in the 1880s and early 20th centuryare reprinted from the Iconographic Collections of the State Historical Society of Wisconsin. Material on roles, norms and role clusters is adapted from the book, Family Life in Two Societies: Japan and the Kibbutz by Stuart Lazarus. (Pittsburgh, PA: The Family Life Curriculum Project, Carnegie-Mellon University, March 1974)pp. 2-6 and 9-12. Anthony N. Penna directed the project. Selections about homelife in the Old Northwest are from two articles by William Vogel, "Home life in Early Indiana", which appeared in Indiana Magazine of History, Vol. X, No. 2 (June 1914) pp. 1-29 and Vol. X, No. 3 (September 1914),pp. 284-320.

The family contractisadapted from the work of Marvin Sussman, Selah Chamberlain Professor of Sociology and Director of the Instituteon the Family and the Bureaucratic Society at Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH.

"The Individual in the Emerging Present" Material for the population chart (figure 1) is adapted from The Population Bomb by Paul R. Ehrlich (New York: Ballantine Books, 1971), p. 4.

The land-need and land-available chart (figure 3) and related dataare adapted from The Limits to Growth (New York: The New American Library, 1972),pp. 58-60. The research for this book was conducted by an international team of scientists, educators, economists and humanists under the direction of Dennis L. Meadows at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

"Teaching About The Future" is reprinted from Instructor, Vol. LXXXIII, No.1 (August/September 1973), pp. 65-67.

"Futuring" by Jerry Glenn is reprinted from Instructor, Vol. LXXXII, No.5 (January 1973) pp. 78-80. The "Pan Africanism" futures wheel was developed by Ray Montgomery and Jonathan Weil in "The Future: An Approach", a project of the Mid-America Program, Social Studies Development Center, Bloomington, INp. 56. The "Human Need/Trend Grid" by Jerry Glenn is reprinted from thesame project materials, p. 82.

"The Immortality Game" is from People Think About the Past and Future,a booklet which is part of the multi-media collection of materials designed by Holt Databank Systems. (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc.)

"Future Values for Today's Curriculum" by Richard D. Van Scotter andJon Cauley is reprinted from Scholastic Teacher (February 1974),pp. 18-22. The Career Decision Tree was designed by Jerry Glenn in "How to Inventthe Future" AAUW Topic Guide 1975-77 (Washington, D.C.: AmericanAssociation of University Women, 1975) pp. 31-49. 1500-3K60093-76 6 1