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.. .. .. ._ , ! $ 2 0 # >- i PROBABILITY OF EXTREME RAINFALLS AND THE EFFECT ON THE HARRIMAN DAM 1 Yankee Atomic Electric Company 1671 Worcester Road Framingham, Massachusetts 01701 April 1984 8405080221 840427 PDR ADOCK 05000029 P PDR _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ | L NOTICE This document was prepared by Yankee Atomic Electric Company. It is cuthorized for use specifically by Yankee Atomic Electric Company, its sponsor companies, and appropriate subdivisions within the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. t With regard to any unauthorized use, Yankee Atomic Electric Company and its officers, directors, agents, and employees assume no liability nor make tny warranty or representation with respect to the contents of this document. -11- - _ _ - _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by the Yankee Atomic Electric Company's Environmental Sciences Group. The work was performed by George A. Harper, j Thomas F. O'Hara, and John H. Snooks. Dr. C. Allin Cornell, consultant to Y:nkee Atomic, provided technical guidance, and John P. Jacobson performed the technical review. -iii- _. __ ______________________________ _ _ _ -____ __ TABLE OF CONTENTS Page N0TICE................................................................. 11 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS....................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES........................................................ V 1.0 REPORT SUMMARY................................................... 1 2.0 METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS.......................................... 7 2.1 Extreme Rainfall Estimation................................ 7 2.2 Reservoir Response to Extreme Rainfalls.................... 9 2.3 Peak Reservoir Elevation Probabilities..................... 10 3.0 REFERENCES....................................................... 15 APPENDIX A - Unconditional Approach.............................. A-1 APPENDIX B - Conversion of DAD Average Rainfall to Exceedance Values.............................................. B-1 APPENDIX C - Example of Unconditional Precipitation Probability Calculation............................. C-1 APPENDIX D - Description of Basin Response Model and Input Parameters.......................................... D-1 -iv- | | . - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ LIST OF FIGURES Number Title Page | 1. Mean Unconditional Rainfall Probability Curve for Upper Deerfield River Basin...................................... 4 ; 2. Peak Reservoir Elevation as a Function of Extreme Rainfalls at Harriman Dam.................................. 5 3. Peak Reservoir Elevation Probability at Harriman Dam....... 6 4. Unconditional Rainfall Zones............................... 12 5. Upper Deerfield River Basin Map............................ 13 6. Mean Unconditional and Statistical Probability Comparison................................................. 14 -v- _-- .__ _-___ ____ r L / 1.0 REPORT SUMMARY - Harriman Dam is a large earth dam in the upper Deerfield River basin located in Whitingham, Vermont. The dam is an integral part of the Deerfield River hydroelectric system and has been generating hydroelectric power for the 10st 60 years. Yankee Atomic Electric Company does not own or operate i Harriman Dam. It is owned and operated by Ecw England Power Company (NEP), a ceparate and distinct corporation, both legally and financially. NEP is rcgulated with respect to Harriman Dam by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) under License No. 2323. The legal authority and rcsponsibility for the dam's control rests with FERC under 19CFR12 (Revision 3-1-81). Nevertheless, because Yankee is located downstream from the Harriman Dam, we are most interested in the performance of the dam under all loading conditions. Yankee, therefore has assessed the reliability of the dam (1). One issue that has received wide interest is the potential for flooding due to dam overtopping from extreme rainfalls. The interest has evolved because of the differences in the estimate of the possible maximum precipitation event, known as the PMP. The PHP is important because its value determines whether Harriman Dam could be overtopped or not. The first study to estimate the PMP for the upper Deerfield River basin was performed by Yankee in 1980 (2]. It concluded that the 24-hour, 200- equare-mile PMP estimate should be 14.3 inches. Franklin Research Center (FRC), under contract to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), conducted a cecond study in 1982 (3]. FRC corroborated the 1980 Yankee study and recommended a PMP value to within three percent of the Yankee study (14.7 versus 14.3 inches). The NRC, for whatever reasons, did not endorse the FRC results and chose to contract with the National Weather Service (NWS) in 1983 to conduct a third PMP study for the basin. The NWS concluded (4) that the PMP estimate for the basin should be 22+ inches. The principal difference between these past studies and that reported herein is that the prior studies were deterministic in nature, whereas this -1- . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - __ _--_ - - __ _ ctudy addresses extreme rainfall in the upper Deerfield River basin in a probabilistic framework. This report was not prepared to determine which FMP estimate is estrect. Instead, the objective of this report was to deter 1nine the , probability of a range of extreme basin rainfalls and to quantify the water i Icvel in the Harriman Dam / Reservoir Facility due to these extreme rains. To cecomplish this objective three steps were performed. In the first step, extreme rainfall probabilities were determined using cn unconditional probability approach. The unconditional methodology is d3 scribed in Section 2 and in more detail in Appendix A. The unconditional probability of the extreme rainfalls are given in Figure 1. The results show that the annual probabilities of the Yankee extreme rainfall, 14.3 inches, and the NWS rainfall, 22+ inches, are 3.5x10 and 2.2x10 , respectively. The annual probability of the Franklin Research extreme rainfall is comparable to the probability for the Yankee extreme rainfall. i In the second step, peak reservoir elevations as a function of extreme rainfalls were determined from a hydrologic model of the upper Deerfield River b: sin. The details of the modeling are described in Appendix D. The results of the basin modeling are given in Figure 2, which depicts peak reservoir clevation as a function of extreme rainfall. The results show that it would tcke a 24-hour extreme basin rainfall of 17 inches to produce a zero-freeboard ccndition (recervoir elevation at dam crest). Lastly, the results of the first two steps were combined to describe the probabilities associated with peak reservoir elevations resulting from cxtreme rainfalls. These results are given in Figure 3. The results show that the mean annual probability of the reservoir attaining an elevation equal to the dam crest due to extreme rainfall is 5.6x10~ . To place the effects of this small probability event into perspective, o review of other safety design criteria is helpful. For example, the NRC has r: viewed the designs of numerous nuclear plants to reconfirm and document the plant's safety. Results from probabilistic risk assessments were used in some -2- t _ - _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ . _ _ - . _ _ _ _ _ . { ccses to show that the risks associated with postulated design events were ceceptable. Seismic hazard curves with annual probabilities of 10~ to 10 , for instance, have been accepted generally by the NRC for input to ctructural analysis of critical plant features. Similar risk levels for other extreme external phenomena (e.g., ' rainfall induced flooding) should be appropriate for dams. Therefore, a t d: sign rainfall value with an annual exceedance probability of approximately 10 is appropriate. From Figure 2, this corresponds to a 24-hour extreme b: sin rainfall of 12.5 inches. The 14.3-inch Yankee rainfall has an annual probability of occurrence of 3.5x10 . Hence, it provides considerable margin of safety for Harriman Dam beyond a reasonable design basis event. An coditional margin exists because the Harriman Dam would not be overtopped for 24-hour basin average rainfalls of 17 inches or less (see Figures 2 and 3). Based on the above discussion, it can be concluded that sufficient m2rgins of safety, beyond the appropriate design basis event, are provided by L the present configuration of the Harriman Dam / Reservoir Facility. 1 -3- - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ y [ o O e oN I C C e mN O O e oN M C ' L C ,.. O t- e / mE J e -b J tm; C - > z i D &" Z C C W ~$a ~ I - c c -@ - U Y~ Z Z ec >- C > J >-- - C" ,"Z~~ Zd Q J ,,dE O~ * J E~~ WO ~. g :- .* : - +1 L 'C Z ' -O Z C~$2 CD ~ =y ZZ o g .- O G- C Z E= .N U " ?- F Z "E D E- C Z T_ c C b W - p E "h d 7< b - O O * e& e O e . r- . p- - F'- I'' O O C ' ' O 2 O 2 2 2 S A117186808d 33N60333X3 760NNB .. _ . _ _ _ _ _ . L t i e o , .o N e o. u. ., o N z cr | ec @ |- ro - o = zz -n e oc x u_ r _ - o o t> er - ee x e ~o U wC N g E$ CI r <-:z o ~ zs o z es oc o ,_, <c - g . nx - s- w - er CJ g E[< >> _, E<: WC C>: JL e E EWS wz o y OE - o ~ me - ,_. :s~ ~M e = o E ew >w at er 8 m~ ww ; Ew we - = w s. y ex a- w :- o E * \ 1 w - .m | . - a. W E U o oE o 00*Ot$1 00*0E$1 00'0Z$1 00*0t$1 00'00$1 00'06tf (lSW'id) NOI18A373 MIDA83938 -5- __ __________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ .
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